It's the Cheddar Bay Super Bowl (58) - Chiefs -1.5 v. Eagles
Looks like it's JPB (with DK as the runner-up) if the Eagles cover and Ben (with Residue Dogs at No. 2) if there's a three-peat.
Runner up gets their entry fee back, winner takes the rest. Best wishes to all and congrats in advance to our soon-to-be newly reigning champion.
Our four contenders:
ReplyDelete1. JPB (148 points) -- Gimme the Eagles. And let’s do win this whole thing!
2. Ben (143 points) -- Greetings, I'm switching my pick to the Chiefs.
I have to catch one person: John Peter. If he and I pick the same team, then I cannot win. Conversely, he does not care which team anyone else picks; he simply must pick correctly and he guarantees himself all of the biscuits.
And so my pick has nothing at all to do with who I think will cover (which, as it were, is the Eagles), but who I think John Peter will choose. Instead of flipping a coin, I went back and looked at his recent essays, and there is a lot of love for the Eagles. Especially with the Eagles catching that precious 1.5, I believe thats who he picks.
I guess I'll find out right after the game starts whether I care at all who covers (as opposed to paying attention to the commercials and my myriad Super Bowl squares).
3. DK (138 points) -- Eagles +1.5
Thanks to all who put on this great contest. I love seeing so many people in contention. While I greatly enjoy Cheddar Bay, I have to admit I've never been more content with an NFL season ending. Chalk it up to the Browns' lingering dysfunction or what appears to be a predetermined, referee-influenced Super Bowl outcome, but I'm more than okay for the offseason. My enthusiasm for this game is pretty low.
(And for the veteran bettors out there, have we ever seen a Super Bowl line not change over two weeks? Seems a bit suspicious.)
Anyway, I fully expect the Chiefs to win, so I have to gamble on both JohnPeter and Ben (and hopefully Residue Dogs) thinking the same. So, I'll go with a counter bet on the Eagles, who are no doubt equipped to win and could even win by a couple scores (shades of the Tampa-KC SB). Either way, it's been a great Cheddar season and I can't wait for next year.
4. Residue Dogs (138 points) -- taking the Chiefs. I feel like everyone is talking themselves into the Eagles because of Saquon and their impressive takedown of the Manders. Truth is the NFC continues to be weak compared to the AFC and the Eagles, already not known for their fortitude, are going into this game without being battle tested like the Chiefs. They’re also going against type: it’s been exceedingly rare in the 21st century that a running back centric team wins the Super Bowl.
I think like everyone else, I have zero interest in the game and would rather keep sounding the fat alarm over the Luka trade. I’m anticipating a terrible game too and a sudden ratings crisis for the shield.
Well played by Ben.
DeleteAnd the best of the rest:
ReplyDelete5. Agnes (137 points) -- Chiefs essay
The Nation is rooting for the Eagles as they are the more interesting of an uninteresting Super Bowl matchup. We don’t even have a Kelce brother’s Cleveland storyline to get excited about this time. ESPN analytics predicts 56.1% chance of an Eagles victory. Most of the bets and 71% of the money is on the Eagles with a line that hasn’t budged since the teams were decided. My son’s teacher told them they would get free time on Monday if the Eagles win and they would fail second grade if the Eagles lost. These are all distractions to the fact the Chiefs are just the better team at pulling off a close win. They have 11 games won by 2-7 points this season and only lost 1 game in which they were trying to win. Chiefs for the hat trick.
6. JMac (133.5 points) -- Chiefs -1.5
It’s an interesting time in the Cheddar season. Once again it comes down to a guessing game among the remaining contestants. Since I managed to melt down last week and the first playoff round, I’ll need everyone ahead of me to 1. Forget to make their picks or 2. Guess the opposite of what I do and then I have to nail it. This is similar to Final Jeopardy where the player not in the lead has to be correct and hope the leaders crash out, or the Princess Bride poison wine scene where it’s a logic spiral of where the poison would be. It doesn’t matter what hunch or justification I have, my long odds depend on what the players ahead of me are likely to do. Since I’m thinking the conventional betting pick would be the Eagles due to any number of reasons, such as Chiefs fatigue, Saquon Barkley, their impressive performance vs. the Commanders, their defense getting better each round, and Saquon Barkley, I’m going with the Chiefs. Based on my extensive research, betting vs the spread is getting more action on the Eagles (both for the number of bets and the money wagered), so the Chiefs could be considered a contrarian pick. If it’s a close game, the usual factors will kick in: Mahomes makes a ridiculous play (upon which a myriad of procedural violations take place which the refs ignore) in the dying minutes to set up a dramatic game winning field goal, immediately followed by a Saquon Barkley TD 73 yard TD run getting called back for a dubious holding call followed by a Jalen Hurts meltdown. Or the Eagles get ruled short on a Tush Push on a last minute drive when clearly it was good for a first, and turn the ball over on downs (despite it only being 3rd down) as the camera cuts to the luxury box where Taylor Swift is hanging out. The NFL wants their Swifties tuning in, and they want their three-peat, and they want to keep Mahomes as the face of the league.
If it’s not a close game, it’s because Saquon re-wrote the record books, and as a recovering Giants fan, I’ll be happy for him. An interesting phenomenon took place when I was growing up in the NY metro area in the 80s - Cowboys and Giants fans were about evenly numbered. It makes sense, because the Giants were awful for nearly two decades, and the Cowboys were everywhere on the four available TV networks (30 networks if you could afford cable). My present area is on the outer edge of the NY media market towards Philadelphia, however you never see Giants jerseys at the schools - it’s all Eagles, and with good reason. The Giants are on the verge of losing a generation of fans, not that anyone cares anymore.
Good luck to all the players. Each summer I look forward to the fall when I get to spend an hour (give or take) each week ignoring my family and house projects / chores to make Cheddar picks, and thanks to the organizing crew for keeping it going.
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ReplyDelete7. OXR (114.5 points): The market [the Chiefs] can remain irrational [victorious and covering] longer than I can remain solvent [competitive in Cheddar Bay] but even so I will take the Eagles and the points to make the tremendously important determination of who amongst us will finish in eighth place. This may just be because Philadelphia has a chance to become the first championship team to decide to fire their head coach, and that would be funny. Anyway, best of luck to everyone whose pick is still relevant and thanks for another excellent season.
8. Ponzi (111.5) Eagles with essay skip. Pleasure as always.
Boise State (-5.5) over South Florida
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