Cheddar Bay Playoffs Week 4: Conference Championships
The season's penultimate week is upon us along with its penultimate and antepenultimate games, with the Bills getting 1.5 in KC and the upstart 'Manders getting 6 in Philly, respectively, and with DK and Agnes best positioned to overtake J. Mac's not-insignificant lead for All The Biscuits.
As you know, votes are 10 points per this week, with an extra five for your VOTY's. All votes are due to be submitted by 2PM EST on game day (Jan. 26) by email to the Exec. Comm's. duly appointed designees or posted directly here in the thread. The Exec. Comm. and a substantial portion of the football voting public remain on pins and needles as our contenders make their final sprint for the finish. Godspeed, once again, to all.
Fantasy Ponzi Scheme (Manders and Bills*)
ReplyDeleteBoom: Well, it's official: we got our pink slips today. Was a heck of a run, Tommy.
TJ: That's right. Just didn't catch the breaks with our essays, or with college ball. To be fair, we're only 22 biscuits away from first place, and I'm guessing there's 50 more to go these last two weeks. We're not mathematically eliminated.
Boom: Wouldn't it be funny to win the whole thing after getting fired? Ryan Day just did it.
TJ: He wasn't fired, Boom.
Boom: Yeah, but he was going to be. What about Ron Zook beating the Noles after getting fired? They carried him off the field like they won the whole thing.
TJ: Let's just enjoy our last day. We're very thankful to be a part of this prestigious league and *not* associated with Ron Zook.
Commies (+6) over Eagles
ESSAY: Bills (+1.5) over Chiefs
Boom: Mystiques die hard, Teej, and I can't help but feel this Chiefs team doesn't have the same juice it usually does.
TJ: Well, the Chiefs do have home-field advantage, as well as the best rush and cover tandem in the league with Chris Davis and Trent McDuffie. However, the Texans were able to expose them in ways I didn't expect. And they just fired their OC. The performance of the Chiefs D was very worrisome. I think the Bills defense can be had at times, but I'm betting on a shootout and for that Chiefs defense to be softer than most would think.
Boom: The market likes the Bills too. Hell, I'm ready to leap into a flaming table. When in Rome, do as the Bills Mafia does.
TJ: But the game is in Kansas City.
Boom: I was in Jacksonville when the Jags beat the Bills in the playoffs. Trust me, there will be flaming tables. And they won't clean up after themselves. Chiefs fan won't like it.
JMac (Manders* and Bills)
ReplyDeleteCommanders +6 (Essay)
Bills+1.5
It’s a week featuring underdogs for the JMacs. The Commanders have defied the odds, etc. and find themselves in the semifinal round. This isn’t truly an essay as much as it is an anti-essay. I don’t have the depth of football knowledge to expand upon the virtues of some type of offense vs some type of defense to justify my predictions in a technical manner. I’m keeping it simple as usual with a gut check. Since conspiracy theories are now normalized in the same vein as chit-chat around the office water cooler or at the coffee station in the hallway of your preferred house of worship, I’m not buying that Jalen Hurts is 100%. He was just taken off the injury report, nothing to see here, wink wink. Have no fear, this will be a close contest. There is Saquon to consider, and most likely he carries his team to victory, albeit not by almost a touchdown. All the Commanders need to do is contain him and keep him from a ridiculous box score line to have a chance to win or achieve the glory of a cover.
In the second contest for the championship of the upstart AFC, the heart wants the Bills to win, and the head tells me it’s another close game in store. We’ll see what the league marketing team has to say.
Residue Dogs (Eagles* and Chiefs)
ReplyDeleteI’ll take the chiefs and eagles with eagles as the pick of the week. I think the Manders are getting a lot of credit for being in the right place at the right time to shock the Lions. The Commies are good but won’t be able to count on Jalen Hurts throwing 3 picks, probably won’t see AJ Brown throw a pick either. It’s going to be another cold weather game for the Eagles and I just think they have the gameplan to prevent Washington from blowing open big plays. It helps that they won’t get any surprises, having seen them twice already
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JPB (Eagles* and Chiefs)
Eagles -6
Chiefs -1.5
I don’t know if their is an essay due for me since it was called VOTY
but if there is
Eagles -6 and here is why: sure Jayden threw for 5 TDS against the eagles this year. But they had 40% of their first team defense out. (And you can say they have ABOUT the same this time- but- I’m ignoring that). So Jayden doesn’t have AS GOOD a game (but I think he’ll still have a game).
Saqoun gets loose twice - and the Eagles run the Commies out of the building- like- aggressively- so Jalen will have success with play action- not a lot- but enough to space the run out.
Eagles are a good good team.
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DK (Eagles and Bills*)
Eagles -6
Essay: Bills +1.5
First, thanks to all who put on this great contest. This has been a fun year and it looks like the title is decidedly up for grabs. I will have to make some counter-bets this week if I have any chance of catching JMac. (and staying ahead of Agnes and JohnPeter).
While I know better than to bet against Mahomes and the refs, I feel there is some momentum building in Buffalo. Similarly, I like the Commanders getting 6 points, but I'm betting that everyone else does as well. Give me Philly in a tough place to play. As for the essay pick, I'm betting on the Bills to win more than the Eagles to cover. Kansas City has been a weak ATS favorite all season and we know the league's showcase Sunday night game will be called close to maximize drama. Perhaps the refs feel some heat from last week's Texans game and/or maybe the Chiefs' magic run is coming to a pause.
Sorry JPB we meant VOTW (Vote Of The Week)
DeleteNo worries! Just didn’t want to act like I knew what I was doing!
DeleteAgnes (*Manders and Chiefs)
ReplyDeleteCommanders essay. Torn between who I want to win and who I think may cover based on basic betting assumptions. I hate going against reverse line movements and taking the team with heavy money. Reverse line movement favors Chiefs and Eagles. Money is heavy on Commanders and much more so on the Bills. Is the money based on facts or feelings-true or false assumptions? Historic lines and line movement comparisons favor Commanders heavily and Bills only slightly. Commanders are a bit of an unexpected underdog this year and a feel good win for a “new” team. I’ve only been to one professional sports game outside of Cleveland and that was a Nationals game at RFK stadium somewhere around ‘05. It was the last stop on the subway line at the time so pretty much everyone on the crowded cars was going to and from the game. I read that the stadium is being demolished and a new Commanders stadium will be rebuilt over the next few years to get the team back in DC proper. Interestingly the site is actual national park property so it will be one of the most expensive parks in the world to visit once the move is complete. Other votes is reluctantly for the Chiefs. In the last 5 years, 12 times teams have had a significant portion of their wins be by less than 3 points. The Chiefs are the only team to have made that list more than once and they have done it 3 times.
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Ben (Eagles* and Chiefs)
Chiefs -2
Eagles -6 essay
Complete game theory play here; going with my best guess as to what others won’t do. I don’t actually believe in the Eagles to cover this number, but I don’t believe others will essay them given the Commanders hot streak. I guess we’re gonna find out! (Likewise think the Bills win, and that’s who I’m rooting for, but again this is my best hope in having a unique twosome).
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OXR (Manders and Bills*)
Following a fairly woeful few weeks, it is a great relief to not have the burden of needing to pick these games correctly. I will go Commanders and essay the Bills as it is a truth universally acknowledged that the Chiefs have been doing it with mirrors for large chunks of the year. Not to say that they haven't saved their largest and fanciest mirror for the last two games of the season, but eventually Allen et al are going to get over the hump in Arrowhead. (I would be picking the Ravens in this spot for the same reason, god help me.) I need literally five people to go with substantially different payoff profiles for this to be relevant so I am not exactly holding my breath over here.
Even 4/4 splits for both games with 3 essays on the Eagles, 3 on the Bills, 2 on the Manders, and a goose egg for the Chefs.
ReplyDelete