Cheddar Bay Playoffs Week 3 - Divisional Round
The peak of the football season is upon us with three (3) eight and a halfs (8.5s) for our contenders to work into their divisional math (Texans +8.5 at Chiefs; 'Manders +8.5 at Lions; Buckeyes -8.5 at Irish).
We've also got the Rams +6 at Eagles and the Ravens -1.5 in Buffalo.
All votes for this round are due to be submitted to the Exec. Comm.'s duly appointed designees by 3:30 PM on Saturday (1/18), either by email or in this thread. 5 points per vote this week, and 10 for the vote of the week. Good luck and godspeed to our contenders and a safe and blessed football voting weekend to all.
DK:
ReplyDeleteWashington +8.5
Houston +8.5
Buffalo +1.5
Philadelphia -6
Ohio State -8.5
Essay – Houston +8.5
I don’t see the Texans winning, but I can’t pass up 8.5 points, especially against a Chiefs team that has made a living in close games. While I shouldn’t bet against Mahomes (and the refs), I think the Texans’ pass rush and overall solid defense will slow down the Chiefs. I’m also leaning toward the Mike Burgermeister (Kanicki) Theory, which states playoff teams who rest their starters in the regular season finale often struggle when the game gets real. Throw in the Texans’ momentum and renewed confidence and I’ll take Houston and the points.
JohnPeter33:
ReplyDeleteEvery home team, so I am system playing?
Chiefs -8.5 to the Texans
Lions -8.5 to the Commanders
Eagles -6 to the Rams (essay)
Bills +1.5 to the Ravens
OSU -8.5 to ND
Eagles essay:
Seeing the snow report and lean to the running game that covered against the Rams by 2 TD's last time. D Henry 3.8 yards per run, high utilization between the tackles. just pounding slow burn.
The Rams D played out of their mind last week, so I think they are overvalued (they are good, but they got the Sam Darnold bump).
Also - the eagles are 10-3 against the spread the last 13, so for some reason Vegas keeps giving us a point or two here.
E-A-G-L-E-S.
JMac:
ReplyDeletePros:
Texans +8.5
Commanders +8.5 (Essay)
Eagles -6
Bills +1.5
College:
ND +8.5
It’s getting close to the wire, and still the prestigious Cheddar trophy is up for grabs. Let’s reach into the bag of tricks and go with the Commanders for the essay. A spread of 8.5 comes down to a guess of whether the game will be a blowout or not, and the tea leaves (at least for me) are pointing to “not a blowout”. The Commanders are on a roll, with several recent games being closed out in dramatic fashion. This indicates good clock management and dare I say a special sauce recipe that keeps them in games. On the other side of the equation, I’m not a fan of teams coming off the playoff bye week. True, it’s an opportunity to get healthy and yet it allows teams to get out of step. The Lions may need a series or two to get back into the flow of things. I do see them coming out on top, albeit not in a blowout fashion. Also the team with a late lead in a playoff game will get even more conservative, playing to maintain possession and not trying for a TD once they’re close to FG range. If the Commanders are in that position, good for me. If the Lions are in that position, possibly good for me as they’re less likely to try to pile on the points and less likely to defend with high aggression - a late TD surrendered won’t matter if it means you get the ball back with 30 seconds to go and the opponent is out of timeouts. Tonight’s game not being a blowout is worth the extra Cheddars. In large chunks of the country it’s a good weekend to stay inside and fire up the TV - good luck to everyone.
Ponzi:
ReplyDeleteBoom: Welcome to another edition of NFL Primetime, and this time, we're looking at the game tape. Where did it all go wrong, Tom?
TJ: *heavy sigh* College ball, like always.
Boom: Hey, wait a minute, that's it? I'm the optimistic one now?
TJ: We're not playing the odds, friend.
Boom: Then it's my turn to pick you up. Remember, we got the most points in week 14. I may have to call Cheddar Bay Customer Service, but I think we get a little cash for that, maybe make up our dues and get a little pocket change. And - let's not bury the lede - I believe we are not mathematically eliminated. Eegh, check my work, I was not a math major, as you know.
TJ: Looks right to me. Also, apologies to Mayoral Notarial for stealing the spotlight from a LOBSTERFEST.
Boom: Full respect to our civil servants, of course. We are fortunate to still have a chip and a chair. My cup runneth over with optimism.
Ohio State (-8.5) over Notre Dame
Chiefs (-8.5) over Texans
Lions (-8.5) over Commies
Bills (+1.5) over Ravens
ESSAY: Rams (+6) over Eagles
Boom: Do we change anything up?
TJ: I don't know how to do anything else but make the best play. But I also know we avoid what we feel are basically coin flips. There's going to be a lot of picks in the Ravens and Bills game, and half of them will get hurt feelings. Let's get six points for a very good Rams team. It's too good to pass up. If the Eagles aren't whipping one on one matchups, they tend to be exposed.
Boom: We'd also like to take a moment of silence for those affected by the wildfires in LA.
*three seconds of silence*
Boom: When we come back! The-
TJ: Boom! Don't do it. You will habitually say something about fire that's completely inappropriate because you thought of fire three seconds ago.
Boom: I wasn't- I mean- I'm not... Ok, that was a good save, partner.
Thanks for the rizz
DeleteBen:
ReplyDeleteGood morning. I can’t believe I’m doing this, but I’m taking all the favorites.
Chefs
Ravens
Lions
Buckeyes
Essay: Eagles -6 over Rams
I had initially toyed with taking the Rams, actually. They’re playing very good ball the second half, and made me look like a dummy so tbh my Minnesota pick last week. But Philly is a different animal. The Eagles have a massive advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and will be playing before a raucous crowd at home. I can’t envision the Rams generating a ton of offense, especially now that Cooper Kupp has apparently turned into Browns-era Dwayne Bowe. The Eagles can focus their efforts on containing Puka Nacua, and unleash Saquon Barkley against a fast but undersized Rams DL. Add to it that there’s a decent chance of rain and snow, where Matt Stafford holds a career 1-8 record. This one could be close early but Eagles salt it away late, 24-14
Residue Dogs, fighting through a broken dictaphone from his hospital bed:
ReplyDeleteChiefs
Lions
Rams
Bills
Irish
Just gotta keep essaying the Lions. Feels like everyone and their mother is picking the classic “lions win, manders cover” move. But the lions are just too locked in, and when they take control of a game they just stack the points like crazy. Mandela are just happy to be there, and as great as Jayden Daniels has been, he’s not ready for Ford Field. Lions cruise by double digits to the championship round.
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteNot sure if the reference to Mandela was intentional from the Residue Dawg Pound but here's a photo from Mandela's last visit to Detroit:
Deletehttps://images.app.goo.gl/eiJ1kxk14iNnp5wV7
Agnes:
ReplyDeleteBills essay. I’m continuing my tradition of essays about nothing as it would get pretty boring if each week I just wrote about line movement interpretations. This week my favorite team is the Buffalo Bills. There were never any buffalo in Buffalo and Buffalo Bill never had anything to do with the town so even the the football team is about nothing, but that doesn’t mean New York state’s only true home football team isn’t in a town without pride. They have something in to be very proud of-the world over known for their most prized contribution to culture-sponge candy. Sponge candy was introduced to the Pattakos-McQuown household in the fall of 2023 when our Czech au pair introduced us to her Buffalo boyfriend who was attending the University of Akron. Emerson or Esteban as the kids nicknamed him, brought us sponge candy and introduced us to a whole new way to ruin dental hardware. This candy is made by heating a mixture of corn syrup and sugar, letting it cool slightly, then adding baking soda and gelatin, letting it rise, then putting it into a huge square mold to cool and harden. The resulting sponge is cut into piece and covered in chocolate. I prefer the dark chocolate version over the milk, but I’m a minority in my family. Our oldest tried to make her own but learned a valuable lesson- it must be done in the winter as any moisture ruins the sponging process. Emerson was kind enough to visit us the Christmas and bring a few boxes and for that I salute him and his town. Go Bills!
Other votes
Notre Dame, Eagles, Lions, Chiefs
last but not least, oxr:
ReplyDeleteDespite what I thought I was doing last week I did manage to essay pick against both DK and JMac, which would've been great for me had I been correct. C'est la vie, now I genuinely do need to pick against them (and Agnes) and also get lucky in order to make it any closer to the top spot. With this in mind I am on all the heavy dogs: Texans +8.5, Commanders +8.5, Irish +8.5. Ravens -1.5 because I think they can beat anyone when they're on form. For my essay pick this week I will go with the Eagles -6 -- at least in part out of spite, but also because I think the Rams are playing with house money, #5 vs #17 in DVOA is reasonable value, and I can easily see Philly winning by a TD at home even without the fortuitous bounces they got against the Packers.
Total breakdown with "*" denoting essays, with no essays on the college game, surprisingly.
ReplyDelete5/3 in favor of Chiefs over Texans*
5/3 in favor of Lions* over Manders*
6/2 in favor of Eagles*** over Rams*
6/2 in favor of Bills* over Ravens
4/4 Irish/Bucks