Cheddar Bay Playoffs Week 2 - Wild Card Weekend
This week we've got the two (2) college playoff semifinal games and the six (6) NFL Wild Card games.
Both college picks are due by 6:30 PM today (Thursday) (ND -1.5 over PSU, OSU -6 over Texas).
The NFL picks are all due by 3:30 PM on Saturday (Chargers -3 at Texans, Steelers +9.5 at Ravens, Broncos +8.5 at Bills, Packers +4.5 at Eagles, 'Manders +3 at Bucs, and Vikings -1.5 at Rams).
All picks this week are worth 3 points each, with 10 for your vote of the week.
For the rest of the playoffs, scoring and rules are as follows: Picks for the NFL divisional round (including the college championship) will be 5 each, 10 for the vote of the week. Then 10 points for the two championship round games, plus an extra 5 for the vote of the week. And finally 25 points for the "Super" Bowl.
NOTE: ALL picks for the following weeks are due one hour before kickoff of that week's first game. Picks may be emailed to the Exec. Comm. and it's duly authorized designees as you've been separately advised, or feel free to post directly in the thread.
The Exec. Comm. once again bids all good luck and godspeed.
Alright folks the votes for the college games are all in, with startlingly high support for Penn State. DK is the only one on the Irish tonight. The only essay for tonight's game is
ReplyDeleteIn the other college game, we have 5 of you on the Buckeyes, with Ben, Agnes, and Ponzi on Texas.
As for essays, the only one we got on the college games is old Agnes, on the Nittany Loins. Take it away Agnes!
"Penn state essay. The match up numbers seem to favor Penn State slightly over Notre Dame even if most of the country is in love with Catholics right now. Unlike Notre Dame, Penn State beat both MAC teams they played this year. ND covered 9 in a row and my theory is that Vegas has been setting the lines to make ND seem like easy money in low stakes games during the season and the first round of playoffs when people might have thought twice with the holidays about their betting. As the only football game on a Thursday night after 5 months of weekday betting fun and the holidays in the rear view mirror, this game is likely to have much more money than anything ND has done in the past. What else are the NFL betters going to do tonight. The majority of the money and the bets on Notre Dame and the line hasn’t budged, making me think Penn State is who Vegas actually expects to win. In addition, I found this fun quote on Penn State’s Wikipedia page: Beano Cook of ESPN says, "If you aren't impressed with the White Out, you're probably one of those people who think the moon landing was faked." I’m not sure I understand the connection-if you aren’t impressed by 90,000 people wearing the same outfit you probably have skepticism over grainy videos and pictures whose originals were all “lost.” If you think NFL cheerleading is antiquated, you are probably one of those people who think the Spanish blew up the Maine. As my 13 year old would say, Literally."
Alright folks enjoy the games and make sure, if you haven't yet already, to get all six of your NFL votes in by 3:30 PM on Saturday!
I honestly thought Penn State was going to be the contrarian side. Congrats to DK on what would have been, win or lose, a perfect Cheddar playoff play. (Obviously the fact that ND won is the icing on the cake.)
ReplyDeleteI'd say 20 percent of my picks are purely based on spite. I lost on Indiana and Boise State over the last two weeks. That line could have been 20 points and I still would have picked against PSU.
DeleteAlrighty folks here's everyone's NFL votes, along with the breakdown per game (* = essay). Lot of love for Harbaugh-coached teams this weekend, especially. Jim's! A couple of Rams essays too, but a 5/3 split for the Vikes.
ReplyDeleteHere's the vote breakdown per game:
6***/2 Chargers (-3 @ Texans)
5*/3 Ravens (+9.5 v. Steelers)
5/3 Broncos (+8.5 @ Bills)
4/4 Packers (+4.5 @ Eagles)
5/3 Bucs (+3 v. Manders)
5*/3** Vikes (+1.5 over Rams)
And here are the picks:
ReplyDeleteDK (ND (W), OSU (W))
Chargers -3
Pittsburgh +9.5
Green Bay +4.5
Denver +8.5
Tampa -3
Essay - LA Rams +1.5 over Minnesota
I think the Rams are this year's "team you don't want to face" in the playoffs. It feels like McVay and O'Connell know each other's offenses pretty well, so I don't expect a lopsided score either way. While I think the job O'Connell has done with Darnold is COTY-worthy, the Vikings really haven't beat a top team all year, with the exception of sweeping Green Bay. The Rams have signature wins over the Vikings and Bills and have been one of the league's most consistent teams over the last month. I have to also throw in that teams coming off a game versus the Lions haven't fared well this year.
Fantasy Ponzi Scheme (PSU (L), TEX (L))
Boom: *chugs bottle of Pepto Bismol* Tommy, I don't have it in me to give a proper intro this week. Take it away.
TJ: OK, folks, it's a tradition like none other: giving Boom a pep talk when we have a bad beat. Sure, we got the lowest score this week and we're currently last among all playoff teams. But we rallied after losing all our college games and an essay on top of that. We're still only 15 and a half biscuits behind first place. By my count, there are still 100 biscuits left to earn! If the right Super Bowl pick can produce a 25 point swing, I think we can aim to be 16 biscuits better than the competition.
Boom: Oof, my heartburn. Please, no more talk of biscuits.
Steelers (+9.5) over Ravens
Broncos (+8.5) over Bills
Eagles (-4.5) over Packers
Commies (+3) over Bucs
Rams (+1.5) over Vikings
ESSAY: Chargers (-3) over Texans
TJ: Not taking that many favorites this week, but the Chargers stand out. A lot is being made of their injury report, especially at wide receiver, but that only serves to keep the line from getting too crazy. And it normally would with a Texans team that can't overcome bad offensive line play.
Boom: Rex Ryan said the Chargers might as well have a bye week.
TJ: Well, Rex Ryan has a sharp football mind, but it's also his job to exaggerate. The Texans defense can say a lot about this game if they force turnovers. I just think the offensive game plan from the Chargers won't give them any turnovers.
Boom: But the Texans can play the "Nobody Believes In Us" card. That's exactly what you and I are doing.
TJ: Yeah, but, among playoff teams, the Texans suck, and we don't.
OXR (PSU (L), OSU (W))
Steelers +9.5 over Ravens
Bills -8.5 over Broncos
Chargers -3 over Texans
Packers +4.5 over Eagles
Commanders +3 over Bucs
Essay Vikings -1.5 over Rams -- I have had some ups and downs with the Vikings, but I can't turn away from them this week. OK, so they had a bad game against the Lions. OK, so they already lost to the Rams in week 8. That's still no reason for this line to be below a field goal, and on paper this is the best value of the six options. Chaos should reign on defense, and Sam Darnold just needs to not be disastrous. This isn't the biggest disparity in season-long DVOA among the playoff matchups, but #7 vs #17 doesn't usually indicate a near pick 'em. I will be surprised if I'm the only Vikings essay, but I'm not yet reduced to trying to pick the opposite of the people with more points than me (that'll probably start next week).
Agnes (PSU (essay) (L), TEX (L))
Texans
Ravens
Bills
Packers
Bucs
Vikings
JMac (PSU (L), OSU (W))
ReplyDeleteNFL:
Chargers -3
Ravens -9.5
Broncos +8.5
Eagles -4.5
Bucs -3
Rams +1.5 (Essay)
Essay:
Let’s see what happens after last week’s Cheddar debacle.
As much as I dislike making the essay pick for the last game of the week, I’m going with the Rams. The Vikings looked awful the last week of the season and while I get that a game to guarantee a home playoff game doesn’t quite give the same motivation that a do or die game does, they looked out of step. On the other side of the coin the Rams are finding a groove again. In the battle of Sam vs Sam, I like Sam Bradford’s experience to get the better of Sam Darnold (who unfortunately showed flashes of his Jets incarnation last week). The Rams are playing just well enough to win in recent games, making sure they don’t let things get out of hand and not making bad mistakes. I forget how many bonus cheddars are on this round - whatever they are I’ll take them and cheer for a Los Angeles sportsball franchise at a sports bar owned by private equity.
JPB (PSU (L), OSU (W))
Let's go!
Chargers -3
Ravens -9.5
Bills -8.5
Packers +4.5
Commanders +3
Vikings -1.5
Essay: Chargers -3
Harbaugh is not to be trifled with. at least this week. I am loving the success of the Chargers and that Herbert is looking like what he was supposed to look like, I blame good play calling. Herbert does need Q Johnson to play this week though and as of this moment, I am not sure he will.
WIth Houston not having Diggs, I think the ball stays on the ground more and the Chargers defense can be ready for it. WIth the Chargers Rush De being in the top third of the league, they slow MIxon down and force Stroud to hit his over on rush yards with some scrambles, until he makes one mistake in the 3rd quarter that costs them the game.
Ben (PSU (L), TEX (L))
NFL picks
Texans
Broncos
Bucs
Eagles
Vikings
Essay: Ravens -9.5 over Steelers
I have been fading Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh all season long (at times, to my detriment). I’ll continue that trend. This is not a good football team. TJ Watt is the most overrated player in the entire NFL, Russell Wilson is again turning into a pumpkin, and the Ravens are humming on both sides of the ball. The book of Mike Tomlin’s mediocrity and losing playoff games adds another chapter. Ravens in a laugher.
Residue Dogs
Chargers - essay
Ravens
Broncos
Eagles
Bucs
Vikings
Going with Big Game James Harbaugh to come up with a big wild card dub. Houston has been crap the entire second half of the season, and I'll lay the three on the road no problem. The Chargers finally unlocked Quentin Johnston to open up the passing attack next to Ladd McConkey, JK Dobbins is back, and that's too much to handle for a Texans team that is not far removed from their Christmas day smackdown.
I had Penn St and Ohio St also
ReplyDeleteCorrect. Sorry for omitting that.
Delete