Week 18: Christmas on the Bay - Packers @ Vikings (Sunday, 4:25 PM)
The Exec. Comm. brings good tidings to all for Christmas, the holidays, and this final week of the regular season, the last day of which is Monday, 12/30, with a mandatory playoff pick due on 12/31 for Penn State at Boise State as well as other discretionary college games available on 12/31 (final format TBA).
This week we've got Packers @ Vikings for the all play. For Wednesday and Thursday's games, the lines are as follows: Chiefs -2.5 at Steelers; Ravens -5.5 at Texans; Seahawks -3.5 at Bears; Pitt -7 v. Toledo; Rutgers +7 v. Kansas State; and Arkansas State +8.5 v. Bowling Green.
The rest of the college lines are here, and NFL lines here.
Please make sure to check back in on Monday or Tuesday morning for the final playoff format. Top 8 make the playoffs with ties for the 8th spot to be resolved by week to week sudden death competition. The standings (not updated yet after last week) are here. Happy holidays and best wishes to all for the sprint to the playoffs!
Boom: *depressed* Welcome to another week of crappy bowls games on NFL Primetime, for some reason.
ReplyDeleteTJ: Hey, now, we did OK last week. However, I am not looking forward to more college ball. I've brought in my colleague Kirk Herbstreit to help with our analysis.
Herb: Glad to be here with such a famous duo. Let's get after it.
Boom: Wait a sec, you're quite expensive these days. Who's paying you?
TJ: Where's your Christmas spirit, Scrooge?
Boom: I blame seasonal depression. And capitalism.
Herb: Don't worry, my kids love your work and encouraged me to do it for the love of the game. Just make sure you bring the egg nog.
Boom: I wish I had your energy.
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteTexas A&M (-4) over USC
DeleteESSAY: Ravens (-5.5) over Texans
DeleteBoom: Maybe I didn't bring my best holiday cheer, but at least I wore my best sweater. Over there by the fake fireplace in this Jacksonville home, you'll find Teej and Kirk. Take it away, boys, I need some fake daylight. *shuffles off set*
TJ: Happy holidays, everyone. We have a great spread today, but there can only be one main dish... *looks at notes* an... NFL game?
Kirk: Yeah, Boom is right, these are terrible bowl games, at least from a betting standpoint. Or so Al Michaels tells me.
TJ: Well, I guess it's good to have confirmation. I'll lay five and a half to take the Ravens, then. Tank Dell is a bigger loss than you think. There's no reason the Ravens can't take advantage of a bad Texans offensive line. The Texans strength at corner seems to be neutralized by an offense that would rather run and pass to the TE instead.
Kirk: Yeah, I can't disagree with any of that.
TJ: So... do you have anything to add?
Kirk: No, you and the NFL Primetime crew are doing a phenomenal job.
TJ: I miss Boom already.
ALL PLAY: Packers (+1) over Vikings
DeleteRaiders (-1.5) over Saints
Bucs (-7.5) over Panthers
Lions (-3) over 49ers
Navy +3
ReplyDeleteSeattle -3.5
Chargers -4
Saints +1.5
AP - Minnesota -1
Essay - Detroit -3 over San Francisco
Merry Christmas to all.
The Lions are pushing for a division crown and homefield advantage, while the 49ers are playing out the string of an injury-riddled, bad luck year. I'm not sure why this line is so low, given that the 49ers have lost 5 out of their last 6. Based on the result of the Vikes-Packers game, this one could be for the NFC North title. I'll take the Lions' strong 10-5 ATS against the 49ers 5-10 mark.
Realized I haven't used my POTY yet, so let's go ahead and double down on the Lions and go POTY as well.
Deletemerry christmas
ReplyDeletechiefs - 2.5
texans + 5.5
north carolina -2.5 (wasabi/fenway/belichick bowl)
Deletedolphins -6.5
vikings +1
Merry Christmas! Chefs -2.5 over Steelers
ReplyDeletePondered the play of the year. Kicking myself for not taking it
DeleteBGSU -8.5 over Arkansas State
DeleteAP Vikes over GB
DeletePlay of the Year: Bengals -3.5 over Denver
My pickem season mirrors that of the Cincinnati Bengals in many ways. Both fighting for our playoff lives with a slim possibility of advancing. Both have shown flashes but ultimately inconsistent. Both need help to get in. I’m riding with Burrow, Chase, Brown, and Higgins and Co. against a Denver squad that has regressed in recent weeks. Cinci’s D still stinks, but playing at home gives them the edge. LFG!
LOL. What a game
DeleteChefs (W)
DeleteBG (L)
Bengals (POTY W)
Vikes over packers
Browns 6.5 over Dolphins
Bucs -8 over Panthers
Vote of the week, Steelers +2.5 over Chiefs: Steelers need a win badly to keep pace for the AFC North crown after two tough losses in Philly and Baltimore. They're back at home this week and getting healthier. The Chiefs can lock up the AFC's top seed and a first round bye with a win but they can do that in 10 days in Denver as well and my money's on their eggs being in that basket as opposed to getting the win in Pittsburgh on short rest today in front of a holiday crowd that should be pretty whipped up. Hope everyone has a great Christmas!
ReplyDeleteMiami (OH) -2.5 over Col. St. in the SNOOP DOGG bowl
DeleteColorado -3.5 over BYU in the ALAMO bowl
Louisiana Tech Techers +16 over Army in the INDEPENDENCE bowl
DeleteVikings for the all play and I'll put an exclamation point on this lost season with a vote on the Browns. It was good to see Myles speaking out against the ridiculous idea that the Browns need a rebuild. With that I'll see y'all next year!
DeleteScores are now updated through week 17. Please take a minute to check that I have not screwed up your total, as we would obviously like any errors to be corrected before setting the playoff field. Merry Christmas to all!
ReplyDeleteThanks for your hard work!
DeleteYou're welcome, it has been a pleasure as always.
DeleteSeahawks
ReplyDeletePackers
Loins
Seattle needs this win to stay in the playoff hunt. The Bears are so bad and they’re playing on a short week. The Seahawks could have beaten the Vikings and are a bit better than the record suggests. The Bears are, if anything, worse than their record suggests. Geno is turnover prone, but the Bears are so bad at generating offense I’m not sure it even matters. Give me the Seahawks on the road.
DeleteBGSU
DeleteTAMU
DeleteMizzou
Mizzou off the board, replace with Army
DeleteI'll take Pitt in the Sports Bowl and Rutgers in the Rate Bowl.
ReplyDeleteVandy in the Birmingham Bowl
DeletePackers
Lions
Cowboys
Essay TBD but will either be Lions or Packers.
Essaying Lions -3.5. There's a good chance that the Vikings lose today and give the Lions a shot at clinching the one seed, but even if they don't, Dan Campbell put everyone on notice that he wasn't going to be resting players in this game. They could probably cover that number even with a few stars kicking their feet up on the bench. 49ers have shut it down like Jon Taffer, with many of their top players taking the rest of the season off to deal with nagging injuries. When the Lions go up two scores in the first half like they usually do, except the 49ers to just pack it in.
Deletecant figure out why pitt lost their last five straight so only a single biscuit here:
ReplyDeletepitt -7.
***bgsu -8.5 vs arkst
Deletelet's wrap up the season AGAIN with an essay highlighting a current favorite 'sleeper' draft pick. bgsu's tight end, ex of canton mckinley, harold fannin, is sniffing around the top end of the second round in mocks these days. great season with 100 receptions, great film of him clowning mac secondaries. and not just mac secondaries. gained 137 and 145 yards against psu and tamu with a td against each. in bgsu's last two losses fannin was held below 50 yards in each. no doubt that will be arkst's plan so tonight should be a good tell to see if he merits his draft grade. as pertains to this cheddar pick, i think he'll succeed leading to an easy cover of a largish spread.
as pertains to the draft... my big question is he able to wear a shirt from the hotel to team bus to locker room? because i'm all set on the david njoku experience. on a team suffering from chronic execution failures, njoku tops the list for crucial and soul crushing drops. always the easy drops. always on 3rd down. to those drops add in the 'i am down to fuck at all times' vibe that njoku shirtlessness screams and i think removing him from the roster would cut the browns' pre-snap penalties in half. we've spent a lot of this year bemoaning lack of 'discipline' and i submit njoku is the prime suspect. gives every indicator of braylon edwards tier club patronizer. as bad as he is in game, imagine what a chore it must be to coach njoku is in practice. so hopefully fannin will be good but not good enough to move into the first round and the browns can upgrade tight end with canton kid who already has orange ties. in the words of les grossman: The universe... is talking to us right now. You just gotta listen.
oof. here's the rest:
Delete1(l) pitt -7 vs toledo
2***(l) bgsu -8.5 vs arkst
3 panthers +8 at bucs
4 browns +6.5 vs fins
5 AP vikes +1 vs pack
6 commas -3.5 vs falcons
Arkansas st
ReplyDeleteNebraska -4
DeleteVikings
DeleteEagles
Army Essay
One of the great things about the bowl season is the chance to learn about the companies sponsoring the bowls. I’ve learned about Walk Ons fast food and Duke’s Mayo, but today I learned about Radiance Technologies-a company that makes militarized super lasers and microwaves marketed as “warfighter support.” This fun company is a “developer and integrator of key, critical technical components, system analytics, propagation, lethality, and live fire operations and tests.” This company is employee owned so they all get to have a part of the lethality of their products. Their High Energy Laser Mobile Test Truck (HELMTT) “successfully defeated soft and hard to kill dynamic targets at many different aspect angles and trajectories.” Seems like a bit of a conflict for them to sponsor Army playing in this game, but support of the industrial war complex is really what football is all about. Army is still out to prove themselves after their Navy trouncing and are unlikely to have too much trouble with the Louisiana Tech who don’t have a very good offense and aren’t the best against a rush defense. Plus they covered a bunch in a row so it’s time for their good luck streak to end.
Cardinals
DeleteI hope all players enjoyed the holiday(s) of their choosing and conviction.
ReplyDeleteFor the 27th I'll go with Texas Tech -2 (scores and odds as of Friday evening). Rest of picks including the all-important pick of the year to follow.
Texas Tech is now -2.5, still good for me
DeleteThe holiday week schedule has left little time for degeneracy. With the random bowl games and the NFL playing a Saturday tripleheader there’s not much left to pick from. It would appear I’ve painted myself into a corner.
DeleteAP: Vikings +1
Rest of picks:
Texas Tech -2.5 (loss)
Commanders -3.5 (Essay, POTY)
Giants +7.5
Browns +6.5
Iowa +3
Time to put down the eggnog and focus. I get it, Penix lit up the Giants last week. I don’t have an issue with the Falcons giving Kirk Cousins his walking papers. With the exception of last week the Falcons have not been a good team after the first few weeks of the season. It’s a tall order to keep it competitive against a playoff contender, late season, on the road (and not in a dome). The Commanders played a great game last week and all signs are pointing to a playoff berth. They’re in sync after some sputtering a few weeks ago, and have shown that they put points on the board even when it’s not their day. A spread of say 6 or more would have made me shy away, however I see this game as breaking in favor of Washington by more than a field goal plus. So let’s put the double extra cheddars on the Commanders and pour out a double eggnog tomorrow night.
Going to be at at a water park surrounded by children for most of the next two days, so I'd better get these in now:
ReplyDeleteCollege pick Alabama -12.5 over a depleted Michigan squad.
All play Packers -1 over Vikings
Chargers -4.5 over Patriots
Rams -6.5 over Cardinals
Eagles -7 over Cowboys
POTY Lions -3.5 over 49ers -- I have had a pretty fortunate run this year of mostly square picks and trying to identify games where the favorites are going to take care of business; obviously that shit doesn't work in the playoffs when you have to pick every game, but we have this one last week and this right here is the matchup that jumps off the page: the Lions still playing for home field advantage and the 49ers reduced to giving Bartleby some run at linebacker. #2 vs #11 in DVOA (SF looks better than its record). The hope is that Detroit, drunk on Dan Campbell rhetoric, refuses to take their foot off the gas. Of course the half point looks dangerous but honestly I wouldn't have been surprised if this line was 7 so I can't complain too much.
Ok apparently Jalen Hurts has a concussion. Switching Eagles to Bills -9.5
DeleteOk apparently Alabama-Michigan is on the 31st, not the 30th. Switching to the remaining college game, Iowa +3.
DeleteChargers -4.5 to Pats
ReplyDeleteBengals -3.5 to Broncos
Vikings +1 to Packers (allplay)
BYU +3.5 to Colorado
NC state -6 to East Carolina
Commanders -3.5 to Falcons (essay)
Essay: well Jayden Daniel’s at home - with a winning record ATS- let’s have him light up the ATL defense
DeleteI am worried about bijan having his way too
But I think the 3 points at home is enough to get it done
Have to pick a college and only two choices left so:
ReplyDeleteIowa
Essay and all play: Packers: Was a lousy year in this contest but at least my health is improving. Packers might be overvalued at this point, but I like them to spoil the Vikings division aspirations. More important than the offense figuring things out has been the defense hitting its stride. I think they will want to continue their momentum and should put in a top notch but low pressure effort. Good luck to everyone in the playoffs.
Others:
Giants
Browns
Cowboys
Titans
Packers -1 over Vikings
ReplyDeleteSaints +1 over Raiders
Jags -1 over Titans
Cowboys +7 over Eagles
Iowa +3 over Missouri
Essay: Browns +6.5 over Dolphins
With Tyler Huntley starting at QB for the Dolphins and rain expected all day, the Browns/Dolphins game should be a close, low-scoring affair. Although DTR is bad, he might be so bad that Kevin has no choice but to turn to Bailey Zappe—who is also bad (albeit to a lesser degree than DTR), but is nevertheless capable of winning NFL games, especially against bad teams (such as Kevin Stefanski's Browns; see 2022). Jerome Ford has been a bright spot as of late and should be a difference maker. Browns will get a win, for no good reason, taking themselves out of the running for Cam Ward and helping out the Bengals' playoff hopes.