Week 17: Tennessee +7.5 at Ohio State
It's the penultimate week of the regular season. Vols at Bucks, in the playoffs, is the all play.
The rest of the college action is here; the NFL action is here; and the Exec. Comm. is wishing all a hearty and rewarding sprint for the playoffs.
NOTE: As always, if you ever want in on a game before the week's thread goes up, screenshot the game day line from ScoresandOdds, post in the most recent thread, then refer to that pick in the weekly thread once it's up.
Boom: Look who decided to join the NFL Primetime studios, it's impersonator Frank Caliendo! Hey, what do you think of these bowl games?
ReplyDeleteFrank as Jerry Seinfeld: What do I think? How can we have a Duke's Mayo Bowl without Duke and the JMU Dukes? Can we not find a dog mascot to send to the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl? What is the deal here?
Frank as John Madden: You know, I don't know that there's a better bowl than a bowl of mashed Idaho Potatoes. Add it to any dinner play and you'll get a win. Boom!
Boom: *whispers to TJ* Does he have entire conversations with himself?
James Madison (-7.5) over Western Kentucky (from last post)
ReplyDeleteALL PLAY: Tennessee (+7.5) over Ohio State
DeleteLions (-6.5) over Bears
DeleteFalcons (-8.5) over Giants
Rams (-3) over Jets
ESSAY: Bucs (-4) over Cowboys
DeleteTJ: This is a lot like taking the Bucs as touchdown favorites over the Raiders two weeks ago. The Cowboys are an inferior team, and I have no respect for whatever home field advantage odds makers are giving them.
Frank as Donald Trump: We love winners, don't we folks?
TJ: That's the other thing, the Bucs are still fighting to win their division. They have every reason to put the Cowboys away. This Bucs team just beat a very physical Chargers team in their own house. With a nod to our friend Frank, you couldn't find a better impression of Sofi Stadium than how AT&T Stadium draws in away fans. Don't overthink an obvious pick.
Boom as Jimmy Stewart: The last thing we need is a Hail Mary.
Frank: *whispers to Boom* Don't quit your day job.
Jax St. +6 for a single
ReplyDeleteNotre Dame -6.5 over Indiana
DeleteSMU +9
DeleteTexans +3.5
DeleteClemson +12
Vote of the week: Vols +7.5
DeleteMan what a trash NFL slate this weekend. What bad vibes with this weird game in Columbus tonight in a stadium half full of Vols fans. Big opportunity tonight for the Wexner-curse/Just-for-Men-beard-dye-addled program in Columbus that cares about nothing but milking the cash cow that lets it buy enough players and beat up on enough crappy teams that it never has to live up to its potential to have people keep pretending its great. Maybe they win but I doubt it. I'll take the Vols and the points.
Tennessee 7.5. Still determining how much confidence I'm going to put on it.
ReplyDeleteNo essay essay: ND -6.5 over Indiana
DeleteTennessee (L)
DeleteND (essay, W)
Bengals -8.5 over Browns
Raiders -1.5 over Jags
Bears 6.5 over Lions
Bills -14 over Patriots
Jax st +6
ReplyDeleteUnlv from last post
DeleteCoastal Carolina +10 no essay essay
OSU
Raiders -1.5
Falcons -8.5
Indiana +7
ReplyDeleteMinnesota -3
Chicago +6.5
Atlanta -8.5
AP - OSU -7.5
Essay - Tampa Bay -4 over Dallas
Baker is in the midst of a very Baker-esque hot streak, as the Bucs look to move closer to a division title. The Bucs can put up some points and now have a solid running game, while Dallas can give up a lot of points. There is virtually no homefield advantage in Jerry World, so I'll take Tampa's 9-5 ATS against the Cowboys 5-9 mark. Also liking Tampa's 5-1 ATS since November, along with a 4-1 mark against the NFC East.
Florida -10.5 over Tulane in the Gasparilla Bowl
ReplyDeleteNotre Dame -6.5 over Indiana
Tennessee +7.5 over OSU
Lions -6.5 over Bears
Rams -3 over Jets
Cardinals -4.5 over Panthers
Essay tbd
Despite the injuries and last week's disappointment, I'll essay the Lions once more. Dan Campbell fired everyone up with another stirring speech and I think they are going to be fired up to prove that they can dominate in spite of the injuries. The Bears are a complete disaster at this point. Chicago media is suggesting its time to bench Caleb Williams simply as harm-prevention. Weather will be cold but not particularly bad for football. I also think the Lions want to make up for allowing the 2nd half comeback on Thanksgiving. Lions by 10.
Delete1. Indiana +6.5 @ Notre Dame
ReplyDelete2. Penn St. -9 v. SMU
3. Texas -12 v. Clemson
4. UTSA -10 v. Coastal Carolina
5. Jets +3 v. Rams
AP/E. Ohio St. -7.5 v. Tennessee
Just playing out the string here, so I'm picking with my heart and zero insight. I think OSU is still the most talented team in the country, so why can't they have a bounce-back in this spot. It's gonna be 16 degrees here in Columbus tomorrow. If either team gets down, it might not have the will to comeback. So why can't it be the Buckeyes. most every pick I've seen against the Buckeyes has been because of "vibes". No other reason. It's been fun, see you all next season.
nd for tonight.
ReplyDelete1(w) nd -6.5 vs iu
Delete2 psu -9 vs smu
3 AP tenn +7.5 at osu
texans +3.5 at chiefs
4 lions -6.5 at bears
5 commas +3.5 vs eagles
6 ***bucs -4 at boys
let's wrap up the season with an essay on one of my favorite hearty perennials: the inevitability of mike evans. some will remember back to the 2014 draft and blog post on 603brown.com entitled Vitruvian Evans. 603brown is lost to the sands of time and godaddy non-renewal but, in it, i mustered all of capabilities that shareware graphics software allows to superimpose mike evans over davinci's vitruvian man. the point then was that a catch radius of evans happens about every ten years. 6-5, 35" arms, 37" vertical.. a combo that still remains unmatched. draft intelligentsia informed us that sammy watkins was better but the most amazing and brownsy thing about this draft: the browns traded #4 to buffalo to grab their top 10 pick and another in 2015.. these became justin gilbert and cam erving. BUT IT GETS WORSE. go to the 2014 draft wiki and from the browns' #4 on only ONE of the next THIRTEEN failed to gain a pro bowl nod. in a pool of khalil mack, jake matthews, mike evans, anthony barr, eric ebron, taylor lewan, obj, aaron donald, kyle fuller, ryan shazier, and cj mosely the browns get justin gilbert. cant make this shit up, you really cant. ANYWAY, in addition to a dame pick, this post serves as a cautionary tale w.r.t. qb eval. i.e., is the qb good or is his target extra good? in the case of johnny manziel, mike evans made him in college. in the case of deshaun watson, deandre hopkins made him. and baker? well baker is smart enough to look for the guy with more reach than anyone since calvin johnson (6-5, 36" arms, 42" vert!!!). in this game it should be plenty about whatever the cowboys are rolling out.
notre dame -6.5
ReplyDeleteosu -7.5
eagles -3.5
Deleterams -3
vikings -3 essay
dolphins +1
Ohio State -7.5 over Tennessee
ReplyDeleteSMU +9 over PSU
Texans +3.5 over Chiefs
DeletePanthers +4.5 over Cardinals
Jags +1.5 over Raiders
Essay: Packers -14 over Saints
DeleteThe Packers’ offense is rolling; it’s scored 30+ points in four straight games. The Saints, meanwhile, haven’t cracked 20 since their November 17 beatdown of the Browns, which hardly counts for much these days (despite their processes and verticals and guardrails and “Coach of the Year” banners). The Packers are fighting for playoff positioning; the Saints (who will be without Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara, and Chris Olave) are fighting for draft positioning. Which is to say that tonight’s MNF matchup has all the makings of a blowout. Gimme the Packers minus infinity.
ND
ReplyDeleteLife Champs
Memphis
Bears
Seahawks
DeleteRams
Tennessee (Life Champs if not already evident to the non-Butch Jones-heads out there) essay:
DeleteBoth teams are flawed. That’s going to happen with a 12 team field. But the vibes are just bad in Columbus right now. The sea of orange on Gameday this morning made very clear that the fans are just not interested in this Buckeyes season anymore after the loss to Michigan. In this playoff era the game was practically meaningless, and yet everyone wants to run Ryan Day out of town, with serious discussion of whether he’s coaching for his job. Contrast this with the ongoing return to glory project being overseen by Josh Heupel and it’s hard to pick the Bucks covering a big 7 and a hook.
UT is well equipped to play in cold weather and they present matchup issues for the Buckeyes. And consider something Sean McDonough spent a good chunk of time on last night as the Irish ground the Hoosiers into dust—are we sure that the Big Ten was even that good this year? No Sean, we’re not. Big One, Little 17? Maybe. Big Orange for three crucial Cheddar points? Definitely.
lmao
DeleteAP: Tennessee +7.5
ReplyDeleteRest of picks:
Penn St -9
Fresno St +3 in the Myrtle Beach Bowl
Dolphins +1 (essay)
Vikings -3
Falcons -8.5
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and may we all be touched by the Festivus Spirit (only if consensual). This Dolphins-Niners game does not have the Marino vs Montana vibes. These two teams might be the biggest disappointments in their respective conferences. On the stat sheet these two teams look comparable. Last week the Niners just didn’t look good in their game. Their recent run has some bad losses, mitigated only by a win over the Bears. Miami is a mid team who lost their QB for a few weeks and sputtered accordingly - turn a couple of those Tua-less losses into wins and the Dolphins’ playoff hopes would not be hanging by a thread. They are capable of beating a struggling opponent making a cross country trip while spotted a bonus point. I still don’t think this team is going to get over the hump and be a serious contender anytime soon, but for now I’ll take the bonus biscuits.
I must amend my disappointment judgment: Bengals are up there as a disappointment (recent Joe Burrow heroics noted). Tomorrow I'll call them out as a disappointment at Festivus dinner.
DeleteTennessee +7.5 to OSU (all play)
ReplyDeleteTexas -12 to Clemson
Lions -6.5 to Bears (essay)
Vikings -3 to Seahawks
9ers -1 to Dolphins
Eagles -3.5 to Commanders
Essay: Lions -6.5
DeleteLooks coming off their first loss in like 2 months.
Bears have literally NOTHING (or no one) to play for.
I think the Bears might break 21 points today but the Lions score 31+.
Actually- the Bears might get locked down by Lions D, despite the Lions D being without 2 starters…. It’s been ‘the sky is falling’ all week after the Bills game. They have something to prove- against a rookie QB and a team without a coach
I am completely backwards on OSU games this year so I will throw my hands up and say Tennessee and the points.
ReplyDeleteStill completely backwards on the Buckeyes, very much not looking forward to the rematch next week.
DeleteLions -6.5 over Bears
Rams -3 over Jets
Dolphins +1 over 49ers
Vikings -3 over Seahawks
Essay Bucs -4 over Cowboys -- this is obviously a popular essay and who am I to disagree -- not sure why the line is less than a TD but maybe we're all about to find out. Bucs have shown the ability to score in bunches, although they're only middle of the pack in DVOA. Cowboys coming off a great win over the Panthers, who are the Panthers, and who played the Bucs surprisingly tough a couple of weeks prior, so maybe that's the red flag. Still sitting on my POTY for the last week, as is tradition, but this is definitely the three point pick for today.
Essay: Ohio St - We've definitely been eliminated, but will play on for pride lol! Ohio St. narrative is so negative, it is almost like people forgot who they are playing. Ohio St. has plenty of players and tons of talent. They turtled up vs. Michigan but that is a completely different situation. The game stayed close, they had too much pressure, and then they grabbed the noose. I'm willing to throw it out.
ReplyDeleteOthers:
Lions
Cowboys
Panthers
Rams
Eagles