Week 16: Bills +2.5 @ Lions (Sunday, 4:25 PM)
Sorry Mad Dog but the all play this week is Bills +2.5 at Lions, Sunday at 4:25.
For Thursday night's matchup we've got Rams +3 @ Niners.
The rest of the NFL lines are here, the college lines are Army -6 over Navy, and South Alabama -8.5 over Western Mich (gotta pick one!), and important playoff announcements are below:
The last week of the regular season will end on the close of Monday, December 30, with a quick turnaround for the playoffs, with mandatory playoff bowl votes on December 31 and throughout the rest of the week. The top 8 in the regular season standings will make the playoffs, and if there's a tie for eighth, those players will be in week to week sudden death until one has a higher scored week than the other. More details on the playoff format later. Happy football voting in the meantime, folks!
Do we have to choose at least 1 of Army-Navy/USA-WMU or no college requirement this week since there are but 2 games?
ReplyDeleteGotta pick a college game!
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ReplyDeleteArmy (-6.5) over Navy
DeleteBoom: NFL Primetime here with more of an editorial angle. TJ has the week off, and I've promised to honor our agreed upon picks. This week, we have essentially two all-plays, because one of the picks has to be a college game among two dogshit games that are possible. Not sure who's gonna lay points on a somewhat competent South Alabama with a hurt QB, or take points with a Western Michigan team that fizzled down the stretch. If you did make a pick in that game, as they say in the south, bless your sweet little heart. So that left Army/Navy, and while you won't meet anyone more patriotic, even the Swami could not predict Army exposing themselves worse than Pee Wee Herman. Good luck against a 5-7 LA Tech team that shouldn't even be in a bowl.
DeleteALL PLAY: Bills (+2.5) over Lions
Army (-6) over Navy
Dolphins (+3) over Texans
Browns (+4.5) over Chiefs
Seahawks (+2.5) over Packers
ESSAY: Commies (-7.5) over Saints
Boom: It has been brought to our attention that the Saints are 3-1 with try-hard special teams coach Darren Rizzi "The Rat" at the helm, as red faced as a Baptist preacher trying to motivate his team. But then they lose Marshon "Marshon Marshon" Lattimore to trade, Taysom "Blueberry" Hill to a devastating injury, and now Derek "Baby, You Can Drive My" Carr is banged up. So Rizzi "The Rat" chooses to start someone named "Jake Haener" over Spencer Rattler, a clear loser in the name game while - ahem - neither are notable enough for a nickname yet. Darren Rizzi really wants to be a head coach, and this might be his only chance, so he's playing not to lose. Folks outside the building are saying Jake Haener is "serving punt" and going with the "slay-action pass" based on looking like Joey Lawrence's twin. As he said on Blossom, "Whoa!" All of this spells disaster for the pride of New Orleans. Except for Jayden Daniels, who will be fondly remembered by LSU fans that will feel very conflicted after "Iron Jayden" drops 40 in the Superdome.
I can’t believe the woke DEI exec committee would disrespect the troops like this
ReplyDeleteTriggered much?
DeleteArmy -6.5
ReplyDeleteDenver -4.5
Seattle +2.5
LA Chargers -2.5
AP - Lions -2.5
Essay - Cincy -5 over Tennessee
This one's all about vengeance, as the Titans ruined by essay pick a few weeks ago against the Texans. At the moment, they are my least favorite team - given that they fired one of the best coaches around to put Bill Callahan's son in charge. But, of course - I'm still steaming about the Texans' loss. Anyway, the Bengals still have playoff hopes and their offense is one of the hottest in the league. I'll take Cincy to cover, especially against Tennessee's 2-11 ATS (of course 1 of those 2 coming at my expense.)
Army over Navy
ReplyDeleteLions over Bills - AP & Essay
Bengals over Titans
Panthers over Cowboys
Steelers over Eagles
Vikings over Bears
Lions schedule is turning in an interesting fashion. What looked like game two of a punishing gauntlet suddenly feels less so, with the Packers sweep in the bag and the next two games against the actively-quitting Bears and 49ers. Now it appears that the Lions can all but clinch the NFC one seed by taking down the Bills, and they go into this game with an extra half week of rest and getting a few key defenders back.
Of course, the Bills are still very good. Josh Allen is the MVP favorite and a Super Bowl rematch is absolutely on the table. But this matchup is pretty good for the Lions. Bills are weak against the run and the Lions will have a full-strength O line blocking for Sonic & Knuckles. Bills aren't a strong rushing team and the Lions are getting 3 D linemen back. While I think the Bills do have an advantage with Allen's legs, it is hard to see him running enough to make up the difference, much like how last week's record-setter wasn't enough to beat the Rams.
As I told a friend, this is hardly a "Mini Ditka 87, Bills 3" prediction, but 6 point win feels right here.
Busy day tomorrow - I'll roll the dice on South Alabama -8 (latest line on scores and odds dot com) in the Salute to Veterans Bowl. Rest of picks to be added.
ReplyDeleteI have consulted with my attorneys and we'll stick with South Alabama -8.5.
DeleteAP: Lions -2.5
DeleteRest of picks:
USA -8.5 (loss)
Saints +7.5 (essay)
Browns +4.5
Jets -3
Broncos -4.5
As tempting as it was to essay the Panthers for a third consecutive week, that would truly be going to the well too many times, like ordering the same thing three nights in a row at Chili’s because you got lucky the first night. The Saints are definitely rebuilding as the saying goes. Other than last week’s big win the Commanders have been sputtering recently. Despite the Jayden Daniels homecoming hooplah the Superdome is a tough place to play, and the Saints have been winning games / avoiding blowouts over the last few weeks. A Commanders win by more than a TD is no gimmie this week, so let’s put the extra Cheddars on the Saints.
(just going with odds at espnbet.)
ReplyDelete1 army -6 vs navy
2 browns +4.5 vs kc
3*** jets -3.5 at jags
4AP bills +2.5 at lions
5 steelers +5.5 at eagles
pats +6 at cards
chargers -3 vs bucs
6 seahawks +2.5 vs pack
i think rodgers can follow up last week's 300 yd game with another this week and i think the jets talent will show up. as noted in a recent essay, the magnitude of this jets' season of disaster is only surpassed by the browns'. but it's still a strong roster. that being said, mac jones is 5-0 against the jets. ngl, this bothers me. but i'll stay with the jets and the key reason is that rodgers may have broken the seal on garrett wilson. ten targets to wilson yielding 114 yds to go along with 11 targets to davante adams for 109 yds. rodgers figuring out how to leverage his stud playmakers is what the jets' pre-season playoff expectations were based on.
Navy for my college pick
ReplyDeleteBrowns +4.5 over Chiefs
DeleteCowboys +3 over Panthers
Eagles -5.5 over Steelers
Packers -2.5 over Seahawks
Essay: Bills +2.5 over Lions
The new Great Lakes Classic? Not on my watch—the barge would never deign to concern itself with meaningful regular-season football. Give me Brady Quinn battling Drew Stanton on a late-August night any day over this garbage, which is an affront to Great Lakes gridiron matchups everywhere. ANYWAY, while the Lions look incredible, I'm concerned they won't have any gas left in the tank for the playoffs. They haven't lost since September 15 and yet find themselves in a division race that could go down to the last week of the season. In the long term, it may be better for them to drop a game now and regroup before the January push. Of course, I'm not suggesting that they're going to *try* to lose, but they have to be exhausted after back-to-back down-to-the-wire wins on national TV against division rivals. I expect that to show today and the Bills to score a relatively comfortable win.
It is fitting that the salute to Veterans Bowl is on the same day as the future Veterans bowl. This seems like the best Army Navy matchup in my football caring years (caring is a bit of a stretch-more of an obsession to prove I’m better at losing to Vegas than Frowns), and I have nothing I have to do today. An actual football game where I could sit and watch it! It’s a good thing I have some crocheting to do otherwise I would probably find some project to start. The interesting thing about these schools is not only are their teams a good matchup as far as their playing styles, they are also comparable academically. My daughter being a high schooler has gotten lots of college information and recruiting, and for some reason has gotten tons of stuff from the navy (nothing from the army.) She looked at the Naval academy and seriously considered for about 5 minutes-okay with the uniforms, drills, service commitment, academic rigor, but she totally drew the line at freshman not getting to have their phones for the first semester. On the surface it seems like a good thing to force the new students to bond with each other and pay attention to the world around them, on the other hand it seems like being without a phone is like cutting of a part of your body. Anyway, these service school kids are tough-real classes, real majors like physics and civil engineering, officer training, drills, clean room inspections and the fear of being shipped off as fodder for the military industrial complex in a few years. But despite the similarities in the schools and the teams, for some reason everyone is all in for Army-both nationwide real betting and Cheddar Bay reality votes. The both got their hits kicked by Notre Dame-but Navy lost by 37 and Army by 35. Navy beat Temple by 27 and Army beat them by 28. Navy beat Airforce by 27 while Army only won by 17. Most of the stats difference comes from Navy’s big loss to Tulane-but their quarterback was injured that day and is supposed to be back in action today. Our nation is counting on him. And so am I. Navy +6.5 POTY
ReplyDeleteCowboys
DeleteDetroit
Falcons
Green Bay
Indianapolis
Army over Navy (assuming we still need a college game?)
ReplyDeleteArmy (L)
DeleteLions -2.5 over Bills
Cowboys 3 over Panthers
Eagles -5.5 over Steelers
Chargers -2.5 over Bucs
Essay: Commanders -7.5 over Saints
Trying not to overthink this one. Washington coming off a much needed bye week and facing someone called Jake Haener. Saints are decimated by injuries all over the place and have nothing to play for, whereas Commanders need this game big time. Commanders roll.
Army
ReplyDeleteLoins
Seahawks
DeleteGiants
Chargers
Chiefs essay
ESPN countdown guys are trying to sell this as a letdown game for the Chiefs, Myles Garrett is going to get off, etc. then almost parenthetically they note the rain and Jameis Winston’s propensity to throw pick sixes.
DeleteSorry but we’ve heard way too much stupidity about Jameis and how much more fun it is and how maybe they need to just bring him back, blah blah. He’s not good, and also, it’s very comical that people make their Jameis case by pointing to #4’s off field conduct. Some of us are old enough to remember when it was Jameis settling all the sexual misconduct lawsuits.
The vibes here are pretty lousy (the get in price suggests the fans are largely checked out). If it’s a sloppy track, I like the Chiefs’ running game more than the Browns’, which has been a total non factor even with the return of Nick Chubb. Maybe the home side hangs around until a terrible pick six, who knows. The sooner this season is over the better.
Sorry for any confusion folks but the official line for Army/Navy is Army -6. It might have been 6.5 earlier in the week but I was sick yesterday and as of today, when I checked Scores and Odds, it is 6, so that's what we're sticking with.
ReplyDeleteNavy for me today. Thx.
ReplyDeleteWestern Mich +8.5
DeleteBrutal slate this week. I'll go with Chiefs -4.5, Bills +2.5, Chargers -2.5, and Eagles -5.5*** for my vote of the week, will cash in my essay skip.
DeleteArmy -6 for me please
ReplyDeleteI believe I still have my POTY?
DeleteI do NOT want to use it for this pick… but just wanted to know
If you really can't remember whether you've used your POTY the Exec. Comm. will have to consider imposing consequences for this ...
DeleteI accept the terms of this. My forgetfulness is clearly a sign of lack of commitment to my cheddar!
DeleteBills +2.5 to Lions (all play)
DeleteGiants +16.5 to Ravens
Broncos -4.5 to Colts
Chargers -2.5 to Buccs
Vikings -6.5 to Bears (essay GOTY)
Vikings -6.5 to Bears (GOTY ESSAY)
DeleteSo I am a die hard bears fan. I am on the season waiting list (year 13). I am optmistic about another QB reboot, and a new coach....but tonight is not the night.
The Vikings are on a roll, and we can't keep up with their scoring.
We can't keep up with....Sam Darnold? jeezzzzzz.
Vikings will score at least 4 TDs, and we might get 3. Thus- the -6.5 is the play.
Bears average 19 points a game, we just got our trach kicked in by a subpar 9ers and the Vikings have EVERY reason to play hard tonight. Playoff and division implications.
My British Father in Law just arrived to the states today to celebrate the holidays with us, and he's going to get his yearly dose of "American football' tonight. I hope he has the patience for what he's about to watch.
GOTY!!
army -6
ReplyDeletechiefs -4
texans -3
eagles -5.5
lions -2.5
bucs +2.5
Navy
ReplyDeleteRest later.
Navy +6 over Army
ReplyDeleteToo late for me to essay an early game but Bengals -5 over Titans per DK. Jmac and FPS are split on Commanders/Saints but after much agonizing I will throw one biscuit on Washington -7.5 just because of the Jake Haener factor.
DeleteAP Lions -2.5 over Bills
DeleteVikings -6.5 over Bears
Essay Broncos -4.5 over Colts -- thanks to Anthony Richardson the Colts are an incredibly high-variance team this season -- and god knows this has cost me dearly in the past -- but the pick here is that he'll make more negative plays than ridiculous 50-yard bombs against an opportunistic Broncos defense. As an Oregon alum and Denver fan this whole Bo Nix experience has been a pleasant surprise so far so let's hope he's throwing the ball forwards instead of sideways today. #10 vs #21 in DVOA, final wild card spot up for grabs, Broncos at home by a TD sounds within the realm of the possible.
1. USA -8.5 v. WMU
ReplyDeleteAP. BILLS +2.5 @ Lions
Delete2. TITANS +5 v. Bengals
3. GIANTS +16.5 v. Ravens
4. JAGUARS +3 v. Jets
E. DOLPHINS +3 @ Texans
These teams are essentially even. The League has mostly caught up to what the Texans are doing offensively and CJ Stroud will be fine but is in a slump. Houston's D is pretty beat up. Feels like a rough matchup for the Texans, so i expect a very close game and probably a Miami win since every game is a playoff game for them the rest of the way.
1. chargers
ReplyDelete2. eagles
3. indy
4. bills
Memphis -5.5 in tonight’s Frisco Bowl
ReplyDeleteJames Madison (-7) over Western Kentucky
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DeleteUnlv -3.5
ReplyDelete