Week 15: Clemson +2 @ SMU (Saturday 8PM)
Whoever would have imagined a "championship weekend" where the losers of the SEC and Big Ten title games would be guaranteed to make the playoff, they've left us to go with Atlantic Coast stalwarts from Dallas (literally closer to the Pacific than the Atlantic ocean) and Clemson (a solid 250 miles from the shore) for the all play this week. The Tigers are +2 against the SMU Mustangs for a chance to play for all the marbles. What a world.
The rest of the college lines are here; the NFL lines are here; and the Exec. Comm. is, as always, wishing everyone a warm and fruitful weekend of football voting.
Reposting from the previous thread:
ReplyDeletePackers +3 over Loins POTY
I’ve had this POTY in my back pocket like a Bears second half timeout, and have missed prime opportunities to use it. Not sure the spots are going to get any better than this one. Green Bay desperately needs this win to have a shot at the division and a home playoff game. Detroit’s defense just gets thinner and thinner along the front 6. Yeah, the secondary is back healthy, but the Loins had to sign a slew of vets off practice rosters to fill out the depth chart this week. With no Josh Pascal, DJ Reader, or Levi O. this week, and a very thin linebacker corps, you just have to wonder if the Loins can stop the Packers’ rushing attack. On the other side, the offense has had some problems finishing drives of late, something I partially attribute to the underrated absence of Taylor Decker. The indoors setting might ironically favor GB tonight; the Packers were a mess in bad weather when the Loins bullied them in Lambeau. I think we see one of the best Thursday night games of the year—and a Packers outright victory.
Loins did a tremendous job of finishing drives today, rendering this only partly true. Glad to take this push
DeleteClemson
DeleteOr-e-gon
Iowa St
DeleteChargers and the Cleveland Fucking Browns
DeleteWow. I'll take the Packers too I guess, for a singlet.
ReplyDeleteFrowns is driving to NYC without me so he asked me to enter his POTY vote, which I have transcribed word for word as I take a break from caring for our children to answer his phone call. “I lost with an UNLV earlier this year where I talked about how the Rebel’s coach Barry Odom probably got a raw deal at Missouri when he got fired there and was doing great work as Arkansas defensive coordinator when the UNLV job opened up. He took it out a bunch of talented Razorback players with him, whose job it will be to stop Heisman frontrunner Ashton Jeanty tonight. It has been interesting to see all the commentators who have been pounding this narrative that it would be some grand injustice for Travis Hunter to win the Heisman over Jeanty. In fact it is strange to see how strongly people feel (bozos) and they seem to have no clue about how hard it is to play at a high level both ways in big time college football, or how hard it is to put your elbow in your ear. Jeanty is having a historic season but Hunter’s is even more historic. This is POTY material and it is my POTY. I also want to publicly acknowledge that Agnes is far better at this football voting than I am, so from here on out I will no longer be giving any money to online sports betting platforms or to any of my shady friends who say they are bookies and then don’t pay up. Nib High Football rules! Also Go Rebs.”
DeleteAgnes put a hex on my POTY. I demand a recount.
DeleteSteelers, Jets, Giants, Chargers to round out my slate
Army (+4.5) over Tulane
ReplyDeleteBoom: NFL Primetime here, Chris Berman, Tom Jackson, and - look, I know we've got a check from the Mothership and we're supposed to boost Monday Night Football - ahem - I know we're supposed to be there, I know we're supposed to lead by example... but we're talking about Bengals and Cowboys.
DeleteTJ: If I may, and I'm not against anything you just said, but I think being forced to cover Clemson and SMU is almost as bad.
Boom: No nonononono, maybe it's boring on the field, but my narrative cup runneth over. Clemson was the loudest voice you heard about SMU "devaluing the conference". The university that never uses the transfer portal versus the university that got gud quick from the transfer portal. I could go on! *pinched fingers* Bellissima!
ALL PLAY: SMU (-2) over Clemson
DeleteArmy (+4.5) over Tulane
Oregon (-3.5) over Penn State
Seahawks (+3) over Cardinals
DeleteChargers (+4) over Chiefs
ESSAY: Bucs (-6.5) over Raiders
DeleteTJ: Ok, but we're not chopping up the college game tape more than usual, are we?
Boom: Trusting kids? Fuck them kids.
TJ: 😅 Then I suggest we tune into the Swashbuckler Cup.
Boom: We're chumming the waters in Tampa Bay, because DA RAAAIIIDDEERRRRRRZZZ are coming to town!
TJ: This is one of those games where one team is clearly better than the other, and yet the line doesn't reflect it. The Raiders may play up for a divisional opponent, but there's little chance they don't lose by at least a touchdown here. I can't really break it down further than that.
Boom: Doesn't matter. You know I'm a sucker for vapid hype.
jaxst -4.5 vs wku
ReplyDelete*** tulane -4.5 at army
boise -4.5 vs unlv
smu -2 at clemson
browns +6.5 at steelers
chargers +4 at chiefs
this is kinda poor form for cheddar but, point of privilege: browns +5.5 at broncos was a really tough beat. just wanted to note that.
on to the essay and it'll be another week where i'm sad to make the pick. michie stadium is my favorite football venue, full stop. college, pro, high school. army into the playoffs would be legendary and instant validation of the playoff format,, even beyond the possible hoosier home game. but tulane is in the process of building itself into a football Program with a capital P. new orleans has to be the most underserved major city in terms of college ball with it's location in the heart of SEC country,, that vacuum could not be abhorred forever. greenwave just announced 15 new players for next year from the transfer portal. they're probably three years away from pushing to get into the SEC. we're gonna throw out last week's loss to memphis and focus their romps of bad teams and comfy wins over respectable (ull, rice) teams. army was exposed when they faced a team with top recruited athletes (nd) and strange as it sounds, tulane is on it's way to becoming a recruiting destination. pains me to say, but i'll bet that their athletes to close out army's hopes for a playoff.
Oregon -3.5
ReplyDeleteTampa Bay -6.5
Bills -3.5
LA Chargers +4
AP - SMU -2
Essay - Army +4.5 over Tulane
This is how little I follow college football - I had no clue SMU was the #8 team in the country. I guess I still think SMU is on a NCAA death penalty, stemming from the Pony Express teams of the 80's. Having said all that, I probably shouldn't be making a college pick as my essay. But....I've rode Army earlier in the season and I'm thinking this is a bit of a no-brainer pick here, as the Northeast cold and Army's physical run game should slow Tulane down. Not a great comparison, but after last week's Bills and Packers game, I'll put my money on the weather.
If it's not too late, I'd like to swap out Tampa Bay -6.5 for Pittsburgh -6.5.
DeleteUNLV
ReplyDeleteCardinals -3
DeleteUT -3
Smu -2
Miami o -2
Iowa st essay. I’ve never written an essay about Iowa State before but today I learned we have something in common-we are all going to Ireland in 2025 because that is exactly what we have come to expect from corn belt college football-international travel. I’m sure there are a ton of cyclone fans in Dublin, and I expect there will be a lot of googling to find out what a cyclone even is. Aer Lingus is the title sponsor and it seems fitting that we are also taking advantage of that budget airline for our transatlantic flight. Interestingly Iowa states QB, top rusher, and top defensive player are all academic honor roll students, so the school must be doing something good with their primary mission of education. On the degenerates side, I love the reverse line movement and Arizona states 5 game cover streak matching my predetermined betting preferences. Iowa State +1.5
Going with Boise and Army for tonight
ReplyDeleteLove to start the weekend with a couple of biscuits.
DeleteClemson +2 AP
Oregon -3.5 essay
Chargers +4
Panthers +13
Just have zero respect for Jimmy Franklin in the boys against any elite teams. 3.5 isn't a big spread for a college game and Oregon has been the most consistently dominant team all year. Dan Lanning's boys are on a mission to lock up the school's first national title. Penn St is perennially on a mission to try and convince everyone that they're back to national relevance, just like in the days of [redacted]. Well I know President-Elect Trump says we're bringing that back, but Scranton Joe is still President. I'm not really sure where I'm going with this, but when it comes to beating good teams, James Franklin doesn't really know where he's going either. Ducks with an easy win.
AP: SMU -2
ReplyDeleteRest of picks:
ASU -1.5
Jags +3 (No Lawrence, No Problem)
Panthers +13 (Essay)
Bears +3.5
Browns +6.5
Crap I should have POTY’d Jacksonville State..
I’ll go to the well again and essay the Panthers in back to back weeks. This is the time of year when weird things start to happen. The holidays are coming, along with weather, and it’s time to put the Kwanzaa lights up again, even if Karen from the HOA has an issue and files an official complaint. Sure, the Eagles are probably going to win this game. But by 2 touchdowns? That’s not a gimmie in today’s NFL. The Panthers are hanging in games recently, thanks to Brice Young figuring out how to be an NFL QB despite being left for dead by the ESPN talking heads (I guess they were bored of yelling about whether LeBron or Jordan is the GOAT, so they decided to trash Brice Young after his first series as a pro. Patience, they do not have). Saquon is having an MVP season, no doubt there, but I’d believe a 13 point advantage vs his old team (going nowhere fast) over the Panthers (not great, but there’s hope for a better tomorrow).
Clemson AP
ReplyDeleteMiami -2 over OU (happiness hedge)
DeleteI crave pain, so Penn St 3.5 over Oregon
DeleteClemson (W)
DeletePSU (L)
Miami U (L)
Raiders 6.5 over Bucs in the “pirate bowl”
Eagles -13 over Panthers
Essay: Vikings -6 over Falcons
Kirk Cousins cannot move. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL. The Vikings stop the run at the best rate in the league. Falcons can’t rush the passer. This is a recipe for disaster for the dirty birds in Minnesota.
All play: Clemson
ReplyDeleteEssay: Penn st. - Although I hate Franklin I get the sense Penn st has not played their best game and this may be it. Traveling halfway across the country won’t be great for the ducks and the Penn st run game should keep them in this. Oregon struggled vs run heavy Boise and Ohio st.
Bears
DeleteCardinals
Rams
Jets
AP. SMU -2 v. Clemson
ReplyDelete1. PACKERS +3 @ Lions (repost)
2. MIAMIU -2 v Ohio
3. OREGON -3.5 v. Penn St.
4. BEARS +3.5 @ 49ers
DeleteE. CARDINALS -3 v. Seahawks
I don't have strong feelings about this game, but I put off my essay and forgot to do picks this morning. But the Cards have been an consistent and exciting team. The defense is better than given credit for. The offense with Kyler is moving the ball. Seahawks are the opposite. A bit feast or famine. But strong in division. Either way, I'll ride the Cards consistency.
1. AP clemson
ReplyDelete2. Georgia
3. PSU
4. Giants
Delete5. Eagles
6. Chiefs
This is a worrisome bet bc the Chiefs keep dodging losses. They've won 5 games that all went down to the final play. Thats crazy. But Ill take Patty on primetime to win big. He is 7-2 when facing a team that falls in the leagues top 10 scoring defense. They need to break out of these tight games and just really beat someone. I see that happening this week. We all know Kelce likes that prime time T Swift coverage and always performs well. No Dobbins helps as well. He makes the Chargers offense click. Chiefs big on Sunday night football
georgia +3
ReplyDeleteclemson +2
saints -4.5
Deletedolphins -5.5 essay
bucs -3.5
cowboys +5.5
this match-up is afc east fast food; no substance, easily consumed and you feel a little sluggish after watching. the jets were fun to hate-watch early in the season, now it's just unfortunate and little uncomfortable. the dolphins teetered on the brink of collapse mid season (tua injury, mcdaniel lost the locker room, tyreek hill arrest) but these events all resulted in a cohesive winning unit. this dolphins team has played league leading defense against the run which inhibits the jets' already troubled offense. don't discount the benefit of the fins at home, their performance against division opponents at home in december is approaching 60%. last year in december mia beat nyc 30-0 and as the money has come in for this game the spread grew to 6. give me the dolphins -5.5
Clemson, I guess?
ReplyDeleteSaints -4.5 over Giants
DeleteBucs -6.5 over Raiders
Dolphins -5.5 over Jets
Cardinals -3 over Seahawks
Essay skip week Bills -3.5 over Rams
SMU -2 over Clemson
ReplyDeletePlay of the Year: Oregon -3.5 over Penn State
For as bad as Ohio State's loss to UM was, dropping them behind PSU in the rankings was an overreaction. Yes, I get that 2 losses is more than one loss, but OSU beat PSU in State College and kept the Nittany Lions' offense out of the end zone. OSU also blew out a top-10 team that PSU didn't have to play. So what is PSU's best win? I guess it's their 21-7 September victory over Illinois. Or maybe one of their fourth-quarter comebacks against the mediocre trifecta of Bowling Green, USC, and Minnesota. In any case, the point is the Nittany Lions are getting credit for accomplishing absolutely nothing of note. So here's hoping Oregon sends them tumbling down the rankings tonight.
Jets +5.5 over Dolphins
DeleteRams +3.5 over Bills
Bears +3.5 over 49ers
Chiefs -4 over Chargers
SMU -2
ReplyDeleteOregon -3.5
Bears +3.5 to 9ers
DeleteBills -3.5 to Rams
Cards -3 to Seahawks
Chargers +4 to Chiefs (essay)
Essay:
DeleteRoad dogs are winning at a higher clip against the Chiefs
Chiefs are not invincible (yet) and struggle to cover lately
Harbaugh is a G.D. Mad scientist.
I just think the offense for the Chargers can actually keep up with a B+ level Chiefs offense
Feels like a field goal game either way- so I like +4