Cheddar Bay Playoffs Week 1
Congrats to the survivors. Now is where the rubber meets the road. The format for Week 1 of the playoffs is as follows, with TEN picks due in total:
1) Everyone must pick all 4 of the college playoff games: 12/31, Penn State @ Boise; 1/1, Texas @ Arizona State; Ohio State @ Oregon; and Notre Dame @ Georgia.
2) Everyone must pick 2 of the remaining bowl games taking place between 12/31 and 1/4.
3) Everyone must pick the following 4 NFL games: 1/4: Bengals (-2.5) at Steelers; 1/5: Bills (-3.5) at Patriots (!!!); Dolphins (+0.5) at Jets; and Vikings (+3) at Lions.
All picks for this week are worth 2 points each, with the essay worth a lucky 7 points. Picks may be submitted piecemeal this week but ALL PICKS MUST BE SUBMITTED ONE HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF. This week's picks are to be posted directly in the thread due to the unlikelihood of any gamesmanship being successful. The following weeks you'll have the option of emailing your picks to the Exec. Comm.
The college lines for this week are here; the NFL lines are Bengals -2.5 at Steelers, Bills -3.5 at Patriots, Dolphins +0.5 at Jets, and Vikings +3 at Lions.
Good luck and godspeed. The football voting public gratefully awaits your most competent performance.
Boom: Welcome to NFL Priiiiimetime, home of perennial - we can say that now after two years of this Jacksonville household participating, right? - perennial Cheddar Bay playoff contenders. Teej, we're going to Rain Dogs before it closes, you coming?
ReplyDeleteTJ: Don't you think that kind of celebration is a bit premature? This week might require more college predictions than we've made all year.
Boom: I can be described as a lot of things, but premature is not one of them. *motions to random lady* You're with me, leather. I'm going to take you to the GEEEEEEEE-spot!
Alabama (-14.5) over Michigan
DeleteBoise State (+11) over Penn State
DeleteTexas (-12.5) over Arizona State
Oregon (+2.5) over Ohio State
Georgia (-1) over Notre Dame
Baylor (-3.5) over LSU
DeleteESSAY: Bengals (-2.5) over Steelers
DeleteBoom: The Ravens are easily beating the Browns, and now the Steelers don't have as much to play for, right?
TJ: Well, it's not that simple. It never is with divisional foes. The more accurate take is the Bengals are one of the hottest teams around, playing do or die football. Tomlin is a smart coach who will strike a balance between keeping a mental edge versus being smart about players who are playing through things, which includes TJ Watt. I think this point and a half line is not properly considering the possibility of the Bengals jumping ahead in this game early. In that case, Tomlin could let his foot off the gas after halftime to make two and a half points ridiculously easy to cover.
Boom: If that doesn't happen, I think we can agree that the Bengals are the better team anyways. The Steelers winning in this spot would be an upset, no?
TJ: We're on the same page. It would be a huge letdown. It's certainly possible, the Steelers are good, but we're just playing the odds and refusing to play scared.
Boom: I have a pocket full of Blue Chew and a night on the town. I, too, refuse to play scared.
Patriots (+3.5) over Bills
DeleteJets (-0.5) over Dolphins
Lions (-3) over Vikings
Competent Illinois essay:
ReplyDeleteI visited fightingillini.com trying to learn what an Illini was and why it was fighting. Instead of providing any clarifying information, the website seemed to glorify the fanatic part of being a fan. Even your feline friends can join in the madness as part of the Oskee Pet Club for only $35. It comes with real membership certificate and a collapsible water bowl because everyone knows cats love to travel! Downloadable Fighting Illini video conference backgrounds are available and will be perfect for my New Year’s Eve conference calls. There is a live auction going on now that ends tomorrow but the 2023 Wrestling team autographed t shirt is currently only at $22 so you could get a good deal. The bidding on the men’s 1998 Basketball big 10 championship paperweight is a bit more competitive with 30 bids up to $151 right now. I’m guessing that extra $1 is a plant to up the bids. That’s the fun of voting college football-it doesn’t have to be based on anything real-just love of the random school that someone picked for college and has now forced upon their cat.
Other votes Penn state, LSU, Notre Dame, Oregon, and Arizona State.
Steelers
DeleteBills, Jets, Lions
DeleteOutstanding Week! Great job!
DeleteThanks. I think my luck may be about ready to run out as NFL playoffs have a totally different set of book line setting parameters and assumptions. If only I didn’t have a real job and I could spend all my time on market research and learning more sophisticated large data set analytical computing techniques
DeleteHappy New Year! The first batch of picks:
ReplyDeleteCFP 12/31: Boise St. +11
Illinois +9.5
Louisville -1
Why did I get on board with starting the year with a 5k race? Another piecemeal pick:
DeleteASU +12.5
It’s a piecemeal start to the year.
DeleteRest of picks for the CFP round:
Oregon +2.5
Georgia -1
Piecemeal Update: Georgia for the essay. NFL games in week 18 get weird.
DeleteI’m taking advantage of the postponement to use Georgia as the essay pick. They won the SEC title game with their backup QB who has now had three weeks to re-read the playbook (while undoubtedly studying for fall semester finals). Georgia is missing a few players, mitigated by their depth. Their third stringers could have played the same schedule and been bowl eligible at the very least. Looking at their body of work over the season, they have a good record against solid competition. The same cannot be said of Notre Dame - while Georgia played against the Alabamas, Texas, and Tennessees of this world, ND tested themselves against the next tier down. I also can’t get over ND losing to NIU. It was a while back, but it says something - if ND shows up with a subpar effort, they’re capable of losing to anyone while more solid contenders find a way to right the ship after digging themselves a hole against a lesser opponent. I’m putting the extra cheddars on Georgia this week. Good luck to everyone.
Piecemeal continues:
DeleteBengals -2.5
Piecemeal again:
DeletePats +3.5
Jets -0.5
Vikings +3
Happy New Year to all!
ReplyDeleteWashington Huskies +1
Boise State +10.5
Arizona State +13.5
OSU -1
Notre Dame +1
Steelers +1.5
Pats +2.5
Dolphins -1.5
Lions -2.5
Essay - Baylor -3.5 over LSU
I gave some thought to going with the Pats in what could be the ultimate likely outgoing Head Coach F-You/Screw up a draft game featuring Jerod Mayo. But, I just can't pull the trigger, so I'll do something outside my comfort zone and make a bowl game my essay. Going with Baylor -3.5 over LSU. Baylor has a dynamic offense and LSU's defense is wrecked by the transfer portal, plus their QB is banged up. Also, I'll take Baylor's impressive 9-3 ATS and 6-1 mark as a favorite.
Swapping Steelers for Bengals.
DeleteBoise State
ReplyDeleteTexas
Ohio State
Notre Dame
Buffalo -2.5 over Liberty
DeleteMinnesota -8 over VT
Steelers +2.5 over Cinci
DeleteBoise (L)
DeleteTexas (L)
OSU (W)
ND (W)
Buffalo over Liberty (W)
Minnesota over VT (W)
Pittsburgh over Cinci (W)
Bills -3.5 over Pats
Dolphins over Jets
Essay: Vikings +3 over Lions
What a matchup! A 14 win team is guaranteed to hit the road for the playoffs, which is astonishing. I’ll give the edge to the road warriors from the North (amd the 3 points they’re catching). The Lions defense has been atrocious for the better part of a month. Detroit torched Brian Flores’s blitz heavy defense in their first meeting, and I expect them to put up points again. But the overall advantage the Vikings defense has, as compared to Detroit’s complete inability to stop anyone, gives the Vikes the edge.
Not sure this is the most auspicious way to kick things off: I have now managed to be both too early (last week) and too late (this morning) to make what would have been, judging by the first half, an incorrect pick in the Alabama-Michigan game, although I hope for Ponzi's sake they turn it around. Anyway, college mandatories:
ReplyDeleteBoise State +11 over Penn State -- too many points
Texas -12.5 over Arizona State -- not enough points
Notre Dame +1 over Georgia -- QB pick.
Oregon +2.5 over Ohio State -- Not at all comfortable with this one but sometimes you have to be dispassionate and say it's the #1 team in the country at home having won the last matchup and getting points. Forza anatre.
Looks like the bowl games are pretty thin on the ground after today so I had better throw a couple of discretionary biscuits on Baylor -3.5 and Illinois +9.5. Going to essay one of the NFL games at the weekend. Happy new year to all.
Those certainly were some college games. I am going to essay the Bengals -2.5 over the Steelers -- Pittsburgh has been better over the whole season but the Bengals have been marginally better over the last few weeks (#14 vs #15 in recency-weighted DVOA) and they have to be approaching this one like a playoff qualifier, even though the Broncos can shut the door on them by beating the Chiefs' backups. Burrow2Chase is going to continue to be a huge problem.
DeleteOther picks: Pats +3.5, Dolphins -0.5, Lions -3.
Penn State -11
ReplyDeletellinois +9.5
Oregon +2.5
ASU +13.5
Georgia -1
Baylor -3.5
Bengals at whatever number
DeleteBills at whatever number
Dolphins at whatever number
I will wait for the Lions Vikings line
Well, I gotta go with who brought me here. Lions -3 for the essay. The Lions and the fans are putting everything they got into this game. It's all on the line, and the Lions know that if they want any shot of a Super Bowl, they need home field and the wild card bye. While I don't love the Lions having to stop Justin Jefferson with no Carlton Davis, I think the home crowd will rattle Darnold into enough mistakes to give the Lions a 6 point win.
DeletePenn St -11 to Boise State- essay
ReplyDeleteTexas -12.5 to ASU
Oregon +2.5 to OSU
Georgia-1 to ND
Duke +17 to Ole Miss
Minnesota-8 to VaTech
Bengals -2.5 to Steelers
DeleteBills -3.5 to Pat
DeleteDolphins +.5 to Jets
Lions -3 to Vikings
Penn State -11 essay
ReplyDeleteOk- so the Big Ten isn’t messing around this year- hence why 1. Purdue couldn’t get a win and 2. Michigan just best Alabama.
So I think the cream (or bronze medal winner) Penn State will cruise against the always sneaky well coached BSU.
Penn state will team tackle on Jeanty- and get off the blocks for Jeanty fairly easily- which means Jeanty gets shut down… and then Boise state needs to rely on their passing game and QB A little more… and remind me.. what’s that like? What’s the BSU QB name? Exactly. We don’t know anything about him.
PSU rolls BSU- over mid way through the 3q.
Good luck to all playoff participants. Frowns has deputized me to help audit your picks and ensure the integrity of the competition—something my training as a notary has uniquely prepared me for.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, although I was lamenting the unfortunate sequence of events that led to my being bounced from the playoffs in Minnesota Twins-like fashion, I am tired as shit and I am sure my picks would have reflected it. Que sera. For fun I am on the Lions of Mt Nittany tonight. Everyone have a safe New Year’s Eve and happy voting!