Week 14: It's Thanksgiving on the Bay! (Ohio State -20.5 v. Michigan - Big Noon Saturday)
Happy Thanksgiving folks! After vigorous dispute within the Exec. Comm. we've settled on beating a dead Schembechler and sticking with "the game" for the all play this week. The Buckeyes are laying nearly 3 touchdowns at home vs. the defending national champs and 2004 Big Ten co-champs.
The rest of this week's college lines are here; the NFL lines are here; Tuesday's MACtion lines remain below for posterity; and the Exec. Comm. is wishing all a joyous holiday weekend of food, family, friends, and football voting. We're as grateful as ever for the fine football fellowship here on the Bay.
Kent
ReplyDeleteGiants
DeleteSam Houston has joined the ranks of the FBS and first year in is goi to a bowl game. Seems like the school is bringing some great traditions with them. Bearkat Marching Band also known as The Famous Bearkat Marching Band plays DJ Khaled's hit song, All I Do Is Win after victories. Before the football team leaves the field, the band plays the SHSU alma mater in front of the entire football team. During the song, the fans, along with the football team, raise his or her right hand up over their head and curls the fingers down to form a paw. Talk about a cat fight. Apparently when they picked the Bearkat name in the 1920’s they thought it was a mythical creature, hence the k rather than a c in the name. They actually tried to have a real Kinkajou in the 1950s but it “didn’t take to captivity” and was “let go.” Now it’s a person and sometimes a female as evident by it’s being part of all girl cheerleading competitions. Bets are on as to what nature of human is under the costume today. As far as the football distraction is concerned I’ll take them for +2.5 over the Flames.
DeleteAlso OSU
Florida State +16.5
USC +7.5
Definitely need to record my Loins early.
ReplyDeleteJust going to take my L for not getting in on the NCAA slate and the all play. Here's some NFL picks:
DeleteTexas -4 against Jags
Cardinals +3.5 against Vikings
Eagles +3 over Ravens
Browns +5.5 over Broncos
Bears
ReplyDeletePackers
Georgia Tech
Texas
A house divided on Bears/Loins!
DeleteOkay, Bears essay:
DeleteI’ll probably regret getting in front of the Lions freight train, but this is part emotional hedge and part acknowledgement of how banged-up the Lions are right now. The Leos haven’t won on Thanksgiving in almost a decade, and last year suffered a surprising loss to the Packers. This year they’re laying 9.5 to a Bears team that has lost close divisional games back to back. I started getting a bad feeling about this one when I saw several Detroit players leave the Indy game and head for the injury tent. The net result is that dangerous return man and 4th WR Kalif Raymond is on IR, Carlton Davis is out, and ARSB and Montgomery are questionable. On defense we’re probably going to see a lot of Kindle Vildor—who ranked 78th of 78 CBs according to PFF last week. On offense, LT Taylor Decker is out, and it seems like the offense always loses something when he’s not in the game. I think Caleb Williams can make the Detroit secondary pay often enough to keep this close and uncomfortable—the Lions will probably have to drive to take the lead in the 4th.
And a Kindle Vildor (phantom imo) DPI made it closer than it needed to be for the Honolulu blue and silver
DeleteMichigan
DeleteCardinals
DeleteGive me Detroit for one.
ReplyDeleteEssay: Green Bay -3.5
I had a whole write-up about Kevin Stefanski's 0-4 record against Western teams and his relatively dismal mark going against top-notch coaches (i.e., a LOT of the coaches he's beaten over the years have already been fired). But - the unpredictable Jameis factor keeps me from pulling the trigger. So, instead I'll go with the Packers -3.5 over Miami in what should at least be a cold environment and possibly snow - not exactly the place a team like Miami has thrived.
More picks later.
Detroit -9.5
DeleteAtlanta +1
NY Jets +2
Denver -5.5
AP - OSU -20.5 (I miss this pick every year.)
Essay - Green Bay -3.5 - in Original Post
Minnesota +1.5 over Wisconsin
ReplyDeleteNotre Dame -7.5 over USC
Texas -5 over USC
Rams -2.5 over Saints
Eagles +3 over Ravens
Essay: OSU -20.5 over UM
If Ohio State's last possession against Indiana was any indication, Ryan Day is jonesing to run up the score this weekend. It shouldn't be hard for him to do so—the talent gap between these two squads has been apparent all year. The weather isn't looking good, but that just means more opportunities from Henderson and Judkins. And Chip Kelly will surely find ways to get the ball to Jeremiah Smith in space. There won't be any looking ahead to Oregon in Columbus this week; there's too much riding on this game for everyone involved. Michigan, on the other hand, is ready for its season to end. Gimme the Bucks minus whatever!
Bears +9.5
ReplyDeleteGiants +3.5
Happy Thanksgiving folks!
Switching to the Cowboys -3.5, thanks!
DeleteI'll take Stan Houston (+2.5) to own the Libs
DeleteMichigan +20.5
DeleteU.S.C. +7.5 over Irish
Vote of the Week -- Broncos -5.5 over Browns: Perhaps it's especially appropriate that I'd be poised for a much-needed Thanksgiving Lobsterfest were it not for Jayden Maiava channeling Joe Flacco by throwing two consecutive fourth quarter pick-sixes to tank what was a sure Trojans cover on Saturday evening. History does not repeat itself, folks, but it rhymes. As we see again in Cleveland where a bunch of pathological liars and psy-opped midwits have once again heavily sold and bought the notion that a mediocre backup QB is somehow better for the Browns than their $230 million starter. This time we have the disgraceful spectacle of the "fanbase" falling all over Jameis Winston's minstrel act, which of course is a form of blackness that, to this group of "fans," than any other type, but especially the type that forces his way out of the employ of the team that drafted him by getting too uppity with the owners. The Broncos have what is, statistically, the best pass rush in the NFL, and no I do not expect Jameis to handle it well, especially after a holiday week full of plaudits after last week's nationally televised win over the Steelers, who were very due for that. No such luck this week. Broncos by at least 6 tonight.
DeleteRack him
DeleteOSU -20.5 vs Mich
ReplyDeleteIllinois -7.5 vs NW
Purdue +29 vs IU
Bears +9.5 vs Lions**EP
It's fun growing older and comparing Thanksgivings. Usually I'm in Twinsburg, OH writing this essay, but not this year! Competent coaching is so important in football. I learned this firsthand this year as an assistant coach to my son's first grade flag football team. The bears did not something they almost never do, fire a coach mid season, they removed their OC, Shane Waldron. This turned out to be the right decision, as their young QB now again is playing with confidence, and offense is showing signs of life. Caleb's ball distribution to his team is good and his scramble throws are fun. I think this is a fun game for the bears to try to keep up with the lions, who are the class of the NFC. I will root for Mr. Jahmyr Gibbs who is spearheading most of my fantasy football teams. I will root for both teams and QBs to play well.
Giants +2.5 vs Cowboys
Packers -3.5 vs Dolphins
1. LIONS -9 5 v. Bears
ReplyDelete2. PACKERS -3.5 v. Packers
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Delete3. Steelers -3 @Bengals
Delete4. Cardinals +3.5 @ Vikings
5. Georgia -19 v. Georgia Tech
E/AP. Ohio St. -20.5 v. Michigan
It's time to play The Game! The stakes are high for the Buckeyes in this one. Ryan Day, by all accounts -- very John Cooper-like -- is a good guy. But he's not an "Ohio guy" like Tressel and Urban who inherently understood this rivalry. So he need to make up for that lack of gets it with a killer instinct that has seemed lacking in big games. A loss this year would make 4 straight to "That Team Up North". This is always a legacy game, but more than ever, victory is not enough, how you win matters too.
Ohio State returned a bunch of players who could have left after last season, but they returned because their OSU legacy wasn't complete. Zero team trophies in the trophy case for the first time in any of those players lifetimes. A "down period" for the Buckeyes, college footballs only recession proof program.
And the winner of The Game always wins on the ground. It's just one of those truisms that happens to almost always be true. Michigan has big advantage of a physical and healthy offensive line while the Buckeyes have had to replace the best 2/5th of their line in the 2nd half of the season.
But none of that will matter because legacies matter, stars matter, and you no longer can just "run to win" in football. The Wolverines cannot pass the football, at all. They scored 50 on Northwestern last week while throwing the ball for under 200 yards. This is a pre-WWII style offense at this point. It won't work. And Ohio State can score points in bunches with weapons like Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate and the 2-headed monster in the backfield of Trevion Henderson and Qunishon Jenkins, while steady leader Will Howard has been smooth and consistent. The Buckeyes need to jump out to an early lead and once they do, Michigan will be done. They will try to do with Northwestern did to the Buckeyes, run early and pray. But legacies are on the line and Ryan Day has shown a new killer instinct this season.
This game always means something because a Big Ten title is always on the line. Legacies are defined. Ryan Day knows what it means. The upper classmen who came back know what it means. The Ohio State football program knows what it means. It's not enough to win this year. A legacy must be defined. And I'll stake a legacy of my own... PLAY OF THE YEAR!
1. Bears
ReplyDelete2. Miami
3. OSU
Delete4. A & M
Delete5. Steelers
Delete6. Essay Browns
Happy Thanksgiving, Happy Friendsgiving, etc.
ReplyDeleteAP: Michigan +20.5, that's too many points to walk away from
Rest to follow
AP: Michigan +20.5
DeleteRest of picks:
Louisville -3.5
UCLA -8
Nevada +17.5
Saints +2.5
Panthers +5.5 (Essay)
It’s been a nearly full football week so far featuring several close contests. There’s tons more on tap for Saturday and Sunday, should you need something to watch while devouring leftovers or nursing Black Friday battle scars. The NFC South is once again the NFL’s forgotten division. The winner could easily sneak in to the playoffs with a 9-8 record. I like watching Baker play, and while I don’t know if I’d anoint him a franchise savior in today’s NFL, there’s no denying that he wants to win and tries to create a spark. The Buccaneers are on a slide after a good start, while the Panthers are keeping things close despite coming up short most recent weeks. Bryce Young is quietly having a stretch of non-terrible performances, perhaps just what’s needed for the former #1 overall pick who the talking heads wanted to include in the Mt. Rushmore of draft busts with Tony Mandarich, Brian Bosworth, and JaMarcus Russell. I expect this game to be close, so put me down for triple cheddars and a 5.5 point spot.
Boom: At NFL Primetime, we take time to acknowledge the one-year anniversary of the passing of Henry Kissinger, statesman and Nobel Peace Prize winner...
ReplyDelete*three second pause*
Now say hello to our long time sponsor Red Lobster and let the dancing crab mascots take us to commercial break!
ALL PLAY: Ohio State (-20.5) over Michigan
DeleteSouth Carolina (+3) over Clemson
Fresno State (+8) over UCLA
Commies (-5.5) over Titans
DeleteSeahawks (-2) over Jets
PLAY OF THE YEAR: Bills (-7) over Niners
DeleteBoom: Well, we tried to get a LOBSTERFEST last week, but it turns out we'll have to pay for catering. The Cards weren't in our favor.
TJ: Speaking of paying, we need to pony up our Cheddar Bay dues; we could use the good karma. We have plenty of Thanksgiving leftovers, though.
Boom: Yeah, and the food isn't bad, either, heh-heh-heeeeyyy.
TJ: These matchups are anything but leftovers. It's rivalry week. Plus, we have our play of the year in Buffalo. I'm sure you know how banged up the Niners are. Meanwhile, the Bills are coming off a bye week and feeling fresh.
Boom: Yes, eegh, starting at left guard for the 49ers, Jags fans may recognize "Big Ben and the Marble" Bartch. If you're not good enough to start on that O-line, eh, you might not be good.
TJ: On top of that, Brock Purdy has had some struggles playing in inclement weather. Now, the weather might not be a whiteout, but I think the cold will bother him a lot more than Josh Allen. Other Niners might be making business decisions in this uncomfortable environment. If you're telling me I only have to lay a touchdown, that's an easy pick. The Bills want that number one seed after ensuring a tiebreaker over the Chiefs, and home field advantage could be all the difference in a Super Bowl run. They're locked in this week because of what's at stake.
All Play Buckeyes even though it's a lot of points.
ReplyDeleteBroncos -5.5 over Browns
DeleteColts -2.5 over Patriots
Steelers +3 over Bengals
Texans -4 over Jaguars even with Lawrence back
Essay Commanders -5.5 over Titans -- don't exactly love any of these but the Commanders are at home needing a win and this is still #14 vs #28 in DVOA. The recent exploits of mad bomber Will Levis do give me some serious misgivings but, on the other hand, he is usually good for a couple of clutch turnovers. I am going against Terry McLaurin in fantasy which typically means he is about to do something ridiculous. A win by a TD seems feasible.
army -7
ReplyDeleteuconn -10
michigan +20.5
steelers +3
colts -2.5
bucs -5.5 essay
Ohio State all play
ReplyDeleteOSU (L)
DeleteRams -2.5 over Saints
Chargers -1 over Falcons
Bengals -3 over Pittsburgh
Titans 5.5 over Washington
Essay Broncos -5.5 over Browns
This is a game the Browns never win and frankly I don’t expect it to be close. Broncos are humming on all cylinders and have a stifling pass D. We’re due for a Jameis clunker. Not going to be pretty.
Far from a Jameis clunker, but his insane turnovers prevented what should’ve been an easy Browns cover. I’ll take it
DeleteKansas st goy - have to use it at some point and passed all those amazing Kansas spots. Iowa st is garbage and can’t stop the run. Kansas st has been up and down but this is a low pressure but relatively high exposure spot that would be a nice finish to their season. Think they come prepared and build for future.
ReplyDeleteOthers:
Clemson
Vandy
NFL ravens
NFL cardinals
All play Michigan.
michigan.
ReplyDelete1 AP mich +20.5 at osu
Deletepitt +4.5 at bc
2 cal +13.5 at smu
nd -7.5 at usc
wazzu -17 vs wyo
3 uf -16.5 at fsu
commanders -5.5 vs titans
chargers -1 at falcons
steelers +3 at bengals
4 pats +2.5 vs colts
5 *** seahawks -2 at jets
ravens -3 vs eagles
6 browns +5.5 at broncos
grumpy sad team versus surprising playoff contenders. hawks are coming off a couple nice division wins, especially last week's hold of arizona to two fgs. jets last two were a throttling from the same cardinals and a tough home loss last week that put a fork in their season. i wont say the jets sitch is worse that the browns' but i can make a case: while both teams' savior qbs have looked nothing like their contracts might have implied, only the jets have fired their wunderkind head coach. and the browns have some life thanks to jameis' inspirational stylings, the jets are gonna roll out rodgers from here on out as tyrod taylor is not the future. to sum it up: team believing in itself with lots to play for versus team and organization who are as at risk as the 2025 department of education.
as a rule i loathe all things seattle, especially the seahawks, and like most things ny especially the jets; pains me to essay this but pretty much a no-brainer.
Alabama -11.5 to Auburn
ReplyDeleteTexas -5 to A&M
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DeleteSaints +2.5 to Rams
DeletePanthers +5.5 to Buccs
Bills -7 to 9ers (essay)
Since the weekly isn't posted yet and i don't know if I'll be back belt 8p...
ReplyDelete1. PACKERS -3 @ Lions
Packers +3 over Loins POTY
ReplyDeleteI’ve had this POTY in my back pocket like a Bears second half timeout, and have missed prime opportunities to use it. Not sure the spots are going to get any better than this one. Green Bay desperately needs this win to have a shot at the division and a home playoff game. Detroit’s defense just gets thinner and thinner along the front 6. Yeah, the secondary is back healthy, but the Loins had to sign a slew of vets off practice rosters to fill out the depth chart this week. With no Josh Pascal, DJ Reader, or Levi O. this week, and a very thin linebacker corps, you just have to wonder if the Loins can stop the Packers’ rushing attack. On the other side, the offense has had some problems finishing drives of late, something I partially attribute to the underrated absence of Taylor Decker. The indoors setting might ironically favor GB tonight; the Packers were a mess in bad weather when the Loins bullied them in Lambeau. I think we see one of the best Thursday night games of the year—and a Packers outright victory.