Week 13: Indiana U. (+12) at The Ohio State (Big Noon Saturday)
As noted, the Exec. Comm. called the All Play early this week given all the extremely consequential early week MACtion and yes, it was not a good sign for the Golden Flashes that the local paper's rivalry week feature was about how the safety for their winless team racked up 18 tackles in a 40 - 0 loss. Who could have guessed. Anyway, this will mark the first time that Indiana University football has garnered Cheddar Bay all play status, with the line down to 12 from 13.5 on Tuesday.
I'm Wagon Wheelin' and dealin' with a single on KENT (plus 10) over Zippy
ReplyDelete"and yes, it was not a good sign for the Golden Flashes that the local paper's rivalry week feature was about how the safety for their winless team racked up 18 tackles in a 40 - 0 loss. Who could have guessed. ..."
Delete...
Vote of the week Browns +3.5
Not many who aren't on the Steelers tonight. Not many caring about the Browns. Looks like a classic 13 - 10 game one way or the other. The Steelers offense isn't all that complicated and doesn't seem to match up all that well against the Browns D. Maybe I'm wrong but this feels like one of those ugly Thursday night covers for the side that, for better or worse, nobody wants to touch.
I'm really channeling squeeky with this essay
DeleteHoosiers for the all play, whatever they are!
DeleteColorado -2.5 as well
DeleteAuburn +2.5 over TAMU
DeleteRams for my last vote
DeleteAkron -10
ReplyDeleteTitans +8
DeleteBrowns + 3.5
Giants +6
Indiana
Kansas +2.5 essay
On paper Kansas and Colorado are a pretty close match-one has better defense and the other has slightly better offense. They both loss to Kansas state-Kansas by 2 and Colorado by 3. Kansas just beat #6 and playoff hopeful BYU while Colorado has not beaten a ranked team. Kansas does have a bunch of 1 score loses and it seems like a good weekend to end Colorado’s 8 game cover streak.
A Wagon Wheel House Divided!
ReplyDeleteIndiana over OSU for the all play
ReplyDeleteIndiana (L)
DeletePanthers 10.5 over Chiefs
Titans 8 over Texans
Eagles -2.5 over Rams
Broncos -6 over Raiders
Essay Packers -2.5 over 49ers
Simple play here. Purdy out but, more significant IMO, Bosa out. Pack should run up and down the field with ease, and as long as turnover luck stays in their favor, this should be a Pack win.
Whatever the all-play number is going to be I'm taking OSU.
ReplyDeleteFun fact about the Western/Central game: in the 3rd quarter, Central possessed the ball for the entire 15 minutes. Thanks to a pick 6, the scoring for the 3rd quarter was Western 7, Central 0.
Here are the rest of the picks taken directly from Scores & Odds at the time of posting:
Colorado -2.5 over Kansas
Texas A&M -2.5 over Auburn
Lions -7.5 over Colts
Steelers -3.5 over Browns
Giants +6 over Bucs
Essay the Lions, should've done it last week, not sure what I was worried about in terms of a let down or backdoor cover situation, but that doesn't seem to be a part of the Lions game this season. I suppose if there is ever going to be a look-ahead let down game on the schedule, this would be the one. The all-important Thanksgiving tilt against the Bears is coming up and the Lions haven't won on Thanksgiving in 8 years, so I would forgive them for looking past the mid-Colts. I just don't think it matters anymore. The team is too well-coached and locked in for that.
ReplyDelete1. Steelers POTY
ReplyDeleteI'm going with the Steelers with my POTY! I've had enough of the Browns. They stink and I have zero faith in them at this point. Usually we can lean on our defense for some hope in these divisional games but even thats a mess this year. They are allowing the second highest yard per target to wide receivers this year and look to face a revived George Pickens tonight. Pickens has caught almost 70% of passes tossed to him from Russell over their first four games together. Ward isn't the same with all the concussions and the rest of the DBs are too concerned with celebrating a broken up pass than the fact that they get their butts kicked week in and week out.
It really feels like all the things we have relied on for years stink this year. Case in point #2 our offensive line. The line is a mess and our running game is trash because of it. I know the Browns wont have to put up a ton of points to give us the feel that they can stay in this game but how do they score? Cant run and then Jameis will be fearing for his life as he looks across and sees Watt ready to pounce. I think the Steelers get a ton of sacks, Chubb looks like he has been looking, our kicker cant make a kick which the weather wont help and it will be a challenge to put up more than 10 points.
I understand people will point to the weather, a short week, and on top of that a divisional game but I just really think the Steelers are a much better team and those hindering factors wont stop them from not only winning but covering by a fair amount.
2. ohio st
Delete3 . ravens
Delete4. vikings
5. bucs
6. packers
Boom: *to off camera* Did you get that bottle of wine I sent you? Yeah? Well, maybe we can enjoy it in my hotel room? Maybe we're naked on Big Nude Saturday?
ReplyDeleteTJ: *loud cough* We're going live?
Boom: H-Hey folks! Welcome to NFL Priiiieeemeeetiiiiiime! We've got a lot of lopsided NFL matchups this week, but we remain indomitable and undeterred. It'll take more than a few rejections to keep us down. Right, Tom?
TJ: *afraid to say anything*
ALL PLAY: Ohio State (-12) over Indiana
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteESSAY: Cardinals (+1) over Seahawks
DeleteTJ: If you don't mind, Boom, I got this one.
Boom: Eegh, well, let's forget about last week. I defer to your expertise.
TJ: Can you believe the Cardinals are on top of the AFC West? I might have projected them last going into the season.
Boom: There's still time, you know. Everyone else is a game back.
TJ: OK, but the extra bye week to prepare for the Seahawks looms large. So does a forecast of chilly rain all game.
Boom: I just looked it up, and it says the Cardinals are 7-3 against the spread, while the Seahawks are 3-6-1.
TJ: Those numbers may make you feel better about beating expectations, but they mean very little to me. In a soggy divisional slugfest, I expect the better run game to take over, and that belongs to James Connor and the Cardinals. And Kyler Murray can scoot and improvise as well.
Boom: Can't wait to rumble and stumble and give a few WHOOPs!
TJ: After some wine, I'm sure you will.
Bears (+3.5) over Vikings
DeleteBroncos (-6) over Raiders
Packers (-2.5) over Niners
Chargers (+2.5) over Ravens
The Cleveland Fucking Browns for one point
ReplyDeleteThat's right buddy
DeleteFlorida
DeleteIndiana
Army
Loins
DeletePackers essay
The esteemed Mr Borcas likes the Pack at home in this spot and who am I to disagree. I should probably just essay the Loins every week but AR15 is a bit of an x factor and the Loins secondary is banged up which means we could see a shootout in Indy. Meanwhile a few hours north I think the only shootout will be Jordan Love shooting lights out. The Packers know they have to hold serve week after week to stay alive for the divisional crown. Although the depleted Niners are still in the playoff hunt, at least technically, they don’t have the depth to pull this off in Lambeau today. Bet some of that worthless Packers “stock” on the home side today.
All play Indiana and the points.
ReplyDeletePackers -2.5 over Niners
DeleteBucs -6 over Giants
Texans -8 over Titans
Broncos -6 over Raiders
Essay Lions -7.5 over Colts -- Not touching the Vikings this week for a change, but this is a suite of equivalently square "go against the replacement/bad QB" picks, some of which will hopefully come to fruition. The above may eventually turn out to be a little unfair to Anthony Richardson but he has been all over the place this year and he'll have to play the game of his life to keep it within a TD. The Colts have lost by this much to the Vikings and Bills and just gave up 27 points to the woeful Jets. Lions are going to run all over them.
florida +11
ReplyDeleteindiana +12
uab +6.5
lions -7.5
dolphins -7.5 essay
packers -2.5
Wake Forest +25
ReplyDeleteArizona Cardinals +1
San Francisco +2.5
LA Rams +2.5
AP - Indiana +13.5
Essay - Houston Texans -8 over Tennessee
Taking a revitalized Texans' squad getting Nico Collins back in the fold and ready to make a push towards securing a playoff spot. The Tennessee Titans are perhaps the worst team in the league, or at least the most confusing - as they let Mike Vrabel go, replacing him with Bill Callahan's kid and a weird, half-finished but bloated veteran roster led by a not so great second year QB in Will Levis. The Titans are yet another case of too smart GM's making dumb decisions. Anyway, Tennessee's ATS is too much to pass up. 1-9 overall, 1-6 as an underdog and 1-6 after a loss.
Scratch the San Francisco pick. Meant to pick Green Bay -2.5. Apologies.
DeleteWhat a night on the lakefront. 2° warmer and it's a miserable night, instead we get snow globe football.
ReplyDeleteAP. OHIO ST +12 V Indiana
1. EAGLES -2.5 @ Rams
2. BEARS +3.5 v Vikings
3. RUTGERS +1 v Illinois
4. WISCONSIN +1 @ Nebraska
E. RAVENS -2.5 @ Chargers
Baltimore lost a close, emotional division game last week. The Changers won a close, emotional game last week. Neither LA team plays true home games. Feels like a good bounce back spot for Baltimore because they need it more.
AP: Indiana +12
ReplyDeleteRemaining to follow
AP: Indiana +12
DeleteRest of picks:
Appalachian St +7
Wisconsin +1
Iowa St -7
Packers -2.5
Broncos -7 (Essay)
Good luck to everyone who is putting on a Thanksgiving. Statistically the most dangerous part of Thanksgiving is not an oven or deep fryer accident, or the fistfights over politics, it’s the drive to the grocery store to get the ingredients. Safety first.
Denver is getting their act together after a spotty start. They are making a playoff push, and Bo Nix has thrown only 2 INTs after back to back 2-INT games to start the season. Lucky for him he’s in a medium sized market otherwise the ESPN talking heads would have screamed for him to sit the bench before being traded away for a carton of baseballs. My gut tells me that Antonio Pierce had some beginners luck last year and is now overwhelmed as a HC. I even had to drop the Raiders as my fantasy football backup QB since they’re not cutting it. The crowd should be pro-Broncos as well, negating the home field advantage. In a perfect world the NFL would have kept the Raiders in Oakland (or sanctioned a move to Sacramento or other near-ish city) and held a weekly neutral site game at a Las Vegas stadium. Guaranteed tourist influx most weekends September through January. But what do I know?
bc +3 vs unc
ReplyDeleteolemiss -11 at uf
1 AP iu +12 at osu
bgsu -11 at ballu
mtsu -3 vs nmsu
6 mizzou -7.5 at missyst
vandy +7.5 at lsu
2 duke +3 vs vt
5 giants +6 vs bucs
pats +7.5 at fins
3 seahawks -1 vs cards
4 ***chargers +2.5 vs ravens
chargers essay to follow.
**CHANGE** going with ravens tonight.
Deleteshoot. sat down to fluff a chargers essay by dropping a jim harbaugh who's got it better than us or some khalil mack ubuff feel good or dobbins revenge game.. but i cant do it. ravens have the top offense in total yards, 3rd in passing, 2nd in rushing, 2nd in scoring. chargers defense is ok but then.. these nice wins they have lately go saints, browns, titans,, and last week bengals but no one takes cincy seriously and neither do i. love the chargers story, believe they can go deep, but tonight feels like the ravens drop it into to overdrive for the homestretch and establish themselves along with chiefs lions eagles bills as real super bowl contenders.
Essay: Rutgers - Oddsmakers have hated Illinois all year, last week installing them as a 2.5 pt favorite at home vs michigan st (lol). I have tended to agree and think Illinois is pretty much garbage. This week they are dogs to unranked 6-4 and seriously boring Rutgers. Rutgers is plodding but should be able to control this game with their ground game. It's not a particularly high motivation spot for either team outside of a senior day spot for the home standing Knights who we will back for the essay.
ReplyDeleteOthers:
Maryland
Nebraska
Vanderbilt
Ravens
All play: Ohio St.
Ohio State for the all play
ReplyDeleteChiefs -10.5 over Panthers
DeleteBears +3.5 over Vikings
Cowboys +10.5 over Commanders
Rams +2.5 over Eagles
Essay: Packers -2.5 over 49ers
Simply put, this isn't the 49ers' season; the Super Bowl-loser curse is alive and well. After missing CMC for 2+ months, Brandon Allen will now be starting at QB in place of Brock Purdy in a crucial game for playoff positioning. Despite what Brandon Allen may have done to Freddie Kitchens' Browns in 2019, that is not a positive development. Meanwhile, things aren't any better on the other side of the ball with Nick Bosa out, giving Jordan Love a massive break. Given those injuries, Packers -2.5 feels like a steal.
Ohio state -12 to IU
ReplyDeleteArizona State -3 to BYU
Texas A&M -2.5 to Auburn
Lions -7.5 to Colts (essay)
DeleteDenver -6 to the Raiders
Buccs -6 to Giants
Lions essay: another week- another likely missed essay
ReplyDeleteTwo things
1. This is a bet against the Colts QB. The most inconsistent qb that I’ve ever had a future on
2. This is a bet for the Lions- which - as current SB faves- seem to be crushing it. And I see no reason why this freight train slows down this week. Goff can slice up zones and the Colts play a lot of zone