Week 12: Ravens -3.5 at Steelers (Sunday at 1PM)
This week the Exec. Comm. rejects the NFL's relentless shoving of their coverboy QBs down our throats in favour of the league's best rivalry, two AFC North teams who'd never dream of playing their home games under a roof. Ravens are laying 3.5 in Pittsburgh for this Week's All Play on Sunday at 1PM.
The rest of this week's NFL lines are here; the college lines are here; and the Exec. Comm. is, once again, as always, wishing all a safe and blessed football voting weekend.
Eagles
ReplyDeleteLiberty
DeleteSteelers
Bills
Tulane
DeleteChargers
Take the Chargers off the board and replace them with the Oregon Ducks
DeleteTulane essay:
DeleteSorry to disrespect the troops so close to Veterans Day, but this Tulane team appears to be the class of the AAC. A playoff appearance is probably out of reach for the conference, but a win for Tulane gives them a leg up in the conference championship race, and sets up a very tantalizing potential matchup with Army. The bloom is off the rose a bit with Navy losing two straight before getting back on track vs a bad USF team. Tulane is 6-2 ATS and has a potent offense. This is the kind of game that will force Navy to play come from behind football. I like Tulane to cover the 7.
Nailed it!
DeleteCommies (+4) over Eagles
ReplyDeleteBoom: Has anyone seen Tom? We're about to go on air.
DeleteOff-camera: Tom's running late, says to go solo on the pick.
Boom: That can only mean one thing. It's Swami time!
ALL PLAY: Steelers (+3.5) over Ravens
Commies (+4) over Eagles
Falcons (+2.5) over Broncos
Bills (-2.5) over Chiefs
Chargers (-1.5) over Bengals
ESSAY: Texas A&M (-39) over New Mexico State
Boom: I know we don't traditionally set our sights on college, but I'll tell ya, when two Aggie schools square off, it captures my attention. Texas A&M under their new coach? Pretty good! New Mexico State under their new coach? Not so much! I mean, I'll do my best to break down some football, but New Mexico State likes to run the ball, and really has trouble when they can't. Well, I'm betting the Texas Aggies can easily stop the run and shape the rest of the game... Well, look what the cat dragged in!
TJ: Sorry I'm late, got caught on Matthews Bridge traffic.
Boom: Maybe you know the answer to this. What's gig 'em even mean? It just looks like a thumbs up to me. Is it - far be it from me to judge - sexual in nature?
TJ: You picked a college game? We talked about this.
Boom: You well know that I cannot be tamed. NFL picks every week are boring!
Lmao wow
Delete1. Commanders +4 @ Eagles
ReplyDeleteAP/E. Steelers +3.5 v. Ravens
DeleteLikely essay punt. If I get motivated, I'll add words.
2. BYU -2.5 v. Kansas
DeleteNE +4.5
DeleteIND +4
MIN -6
Frowns is on the Commanders this evening
ReplyDeleteHmm so I was.
DeleteGeorgia -9.5 over Tennessee for my vote of the week this week. This line looks too big especially after the Bulldogs got smacked by Mississippi last week but there's a logjam of 2-loss teams at the top of the SEC standings and I suppose the televised football industrial complex wants to keep it that way. Georgia avoids its third loss and Tennessee gets its second, by at least 10, joining the logjam.
Saints +1, Ravens -3.5, Bills - 2.5, Bengals +1.5
DeleteKansas +2.5
ReplyDeleteNew Orleans +1
Bills -2.5
Chargers -1.5
Dallas +7
AP and Essay - Pittsburgh +3.5 over Baltimore
I can't ignore a solid Mike Tomlin-coached team getting points at home against a division rival. Even against Lamar, who is easily this year's MVP. I think the Steelers' D can slow down Lamar a bit and I'll take a revitalized Russell Wilson against that atrocious Ravens' pass defense (a sentence I did not anticipate writing a couple months ago). Throw in the Steelers' stellar 7-2 ATS and I'm sold.
Ohio St -28.5 over Northwestern
ReplyDeletePitt +11.5 over Clemson
Illinois -3 over Mich St
Steelers +3.5 over Ravens
Bills -2.5 over Chiefs
Packers -5.5 over Bears - essay
I would love to keep essaying the Lions but -14 is just a bit too much. So I'm betting on total Bears dysfunction is typically profitable. The Bears are doing nothing to defend the home field and the Packers are coming off a bye, which means Jordan Love is getting healthy and the Pack have every reason to come out firing to erase their tough loss against Detroit two weeks ago. Zero faith in the new OC to make anything better, the locker room is still completely checked out on master of panic Matt Eberflus and he doesn't have the horses left to pull out another mirage phony competitive second half. The offseason's worst coaching decision in bringing back Eberflus continues to put egg on the face of the clown McCaskeys. Caleb should have trusted his instincts and pulled an Eli Manning on refusing to get drafted by these dipshits.
Pitt 11.5 over Clemson
ReplyDeletePitt (W) over Clemson
DeleteBrowns -1 over Aints
Seahawks 6.5 over 49ers
Ravens -3.5 over Steelers
Raiders 7 over Dolphins
Essay: Rams -4.5 over Pats
Normally a fade spot (short week and traveling cross country), I’m backing the Rams. They suffered a brutal loss as a home favorite and are playing for their playoff lives. Finally healthy on O, the Rams ought to torch this mediocre and injured Pats D.
washington -4
ReplyDeleteliberty -14
coastal +9
vikings -6
steelers +3.5
chiefs +2.5
delete chiefs
Deleteadd maryland -6 essay
who's the tougher opponent: oregon ducks or minn golden gophers? rutgers may have a slight edge in record (rutgers 5-4 - terrapins 4-5) but maryland has been battle tested. coming off a loss last week v oregon expect maryland to win and win big at home. espn matchup predictor has maryland favored 60% over rutgers. that more the covers the 1 td spread. rutgers is a lacrosse school, give me maryland -6.
Texas -12.5 over Arkansas
ReplyDeleteVirginia +23 over Notre Dame
Tennessee +9.5 over Georgia
Bengals +1.5 over Chargers
Ravens -3.5 over Steelers
essay to come
Essay: Browns -1 over Saints
DeleteThe best thing the Browns could do at this point is lose for draft position, especially to a Saints team that's in the mix for a top-three pick. But I don't expect the Saints' offense to get anything going against the Browns' defense. On the other side of the ball, Jameis will probably make his usual share of turnover-worthy blunders, but he'll also get the Browns in scoring position enough to secure a comfortable victory. I also like that the Browns are coming off a bye, that Nick Chubb has been playing for nearly a month now, and that the Saints got a surprise win against the Falcons last week; as a result, the Browns surely haven't overlooked them (not that they should be overlooking anyone with that record of theirs). Browns wake up the echoes of Reggie Hodges circa 2010 and come away with a win in New Orleans.
1 (l) cmu +14.5 at toledo [note to self: dont bet on the worst football team youve ever seen again.]
ReplyDelete2 texas -12.5 at ark
3 bc +19 at smu
orst -3.5 at afa
neb +9 at usc
wake +11 at unc
wazzu -10 at unm
byu -2.5 vs ku
4 pats +4.5 vs rams
5 AP steelers +3.5 vs ravens
jets -4 vs colts
broncos -2.5 vs falcons
6 *** chargers -1.5 vs bengals
i'm going all in on the chargers as a playoff team and super bowl contender. herbert's progression into top tier qb has been steady and the arrow points up. burrow on the other hand,, injuries, bad line, and this year dropping joe mixon,, there's always a reason but he doesn't put games away as convincingly as he did at lsu. extremely tall order for him this week against chargers' really impressive defense. they're top 5-10 in all the team defense stats and tops in pointsallowed/game and by quite a bit (13.1, steelers are 2nd at 16.2). hendrickson's neck injury will be an issue even though he is playing. but mainly, jim harbaugh has his team believing and we only have to look back to january to recognize how his teams perform when they're in that zone.
Texas -12.5 to Arkansas (essay)
ReplyDeleteTexas essay:
DeleteFirst off - the line is moving in my favor- so I’ll take the closing line value
Also- Arkansas is too inconsistent this year- and the variance in the offense is what I’m betting against
They’ll get their bowl eligibility but not this game.
I think I’m in on Texas as a national champion too- so the tune ups are helpful
Ravens -3.5 to Steelers
Delete9ers -6.5 to Seahawks
Vikings -6 to Titans
Bills -2.5 to Chiefs
Chargers -1.5 to Bengals
Illinois over MSU
ReplyDelete1. Penn State
ReplyDelete2. Georgia
Delete3. Steelers
4. Seahawks
Delete5. Chiefs
6. Bengals
Hoping Joey B's offensive dominance finally gets them a W. Today is the first time this season that the Chargers D will have faced an opponent currently ranked inside the top 10 in points per game. The Bengals defense stinks but Im hopeful they can hold off the Chargers offense while Borrow does his thing. This is an easier ask of the defense compared to stopping the Ravens and Chiefs offense.
Essay: Florida - Gators have been terrible and were waxed last week but catch lsu of season ending loss. Have been negative on lsu all year and if there was ever a coach guys would quit on its bk. Gators for essay.
ReplyDeleteKansas
Michigan st
Rutgers
Chiefs
Ravens
Nailed it!
DeleteThe Oregon Football Ducks by two touchdowns over Wisconsin
ReplyDeleteAP Ravens -3.5 over Steelers
DeletePackers -5.5 over Bears
Colts +4 over Jets
Texans -7 over Cowboys
Essay Vikings -6 over Titans --- as a dog returneth to its vomit so I return to the Vikings, on the basis that last week's comedy of errors is not as predictive as the line makes it out to be. Seriously one of the most snakebitten games I've ever seen and they still very nearly covered. Even if Darnold is still off his feed the opposing QB is Will Levis, who is probably good for a couple of judiciously timed turnovers himself. This is still #4 vs #29 in DVOA and the line should not be less than a TD.
Tennessee +9.5
ReplyDeleteWake Forest +11
BYU -2.5
Remaining picks and essay to follow, here's hoping my NFL knowledge isn't garbage.
AP: Ravens -3.5
DeleteDa Bears +5.5 (ese pick)
Dolphins -7
One positive effect of climate change is the youth sports season can continue outdoors until Thanksgiving on the east coast. I guess that’s a consolation prize for having to spend time in the 2040s building my Mad Max contraption to help with traveling the wastelands. Since the sidelines of a U9 girls’ soccer tournament are not conducive to composing an adequate essay, here were are, accepting that this week’s essay will have to be for an NFL contest.
This is purely a hunch play since I have no time this weekend to do anything more than justify a hunch. The Packers are a good team albeit shaky at times. The Bears have a decent defense (go figure) and are at home, usually good to guarantee a decent showing against a division rival. They’ve put up points in games this year, so look for them to keep it close against the Packers bouncing back from last week’s bad result. I’m putting extra cheddars on the Packers slipping and the Bears remembering how to score points.
LOVE the Bears pick!
DeleteA bad cheddar bay week just got worse by my missing the all play (in defense when I suggested an allplay to Frowns on Wednesday he told me that the ELT didn’t like 1:00 Sunday games so I didn’t realize it was early :( too busy being a mom this weekend). Cowboys and Seahawks for an attempt at a 2 point week. 3 losing votes with essay were on Wednesday.
ReplyDelete