Week 11: Alabama (-2.5) at LSU
The 12-team "college" football playoff means more "high stakes" games between two-loss teams in November, we're told.
Better than anything else on the slate this week anyway, The Exec. Comm. supposes, though Lions -3.5 at Texans on Sunday night was tempting. Quite a ride some of you have been on with those Motor City Kitties, we've noticed. Essay of the Week last week goes to Old Frowner, however, for nailing Chargers -1 at Browns, with Mayoral Notarial and Capital GG a close second with Oregon -14.5 at Michigan. As a wise man once said, "gotta get the easy ones."
The rest of the college lines are here, the NFL lines are here, and the Exec. Comm. is, as always, wishing all a most blessed football voting weekend.
Ravens -6
ReplyDeleteLSU +2.5 over Bama,
DeleteMaryland +24.5 over Oregon,
Penn State -13.5 over Wash,
Steelers +3 over Manders.
VOTE OF THE WEEK TEXANS +3.5 OVER LIONS
You folks are simply too much with these Lions. This simply can't keep happening (Lions covering). The Texans could hardly have looked worse against the Jets last week. C.J. Stroud feeling some heat for the first time in his young career. I'm as big a ZaDarius Smith fan as anyone, well, maybe not anyone, but I think Houston comes up with the cover and comes through for the books in the nationally televised night game and I'll let three biscuits fly on it.
Boom: Another great edition of NFL Primetime, but before we go to break, we send our condolences to Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas and his wife Ginny and their family. No one should have to deal with hooligans and stomp out, uh, eegh, excrement fires on their doorstep.
ReplyDelete*two second pause*
When we come back! Jay "Touchy" Feely and "Roe v" Wade Phillips stop by the studio to reveal what it was like to play golf with President Trump! Stay right there!
ALL PLAY: Alabama (-2.5) over LSU
DeleteOle Miss (+2.5) over Georgia
Indiana (-14.5) over Michigan
Bills (-4) over Colts
DeleteChargers (-7) over Titans
ESSAY: Lions (-3.5) over Texans
Boom: Am I reading this right, we've got three college games to break down this week?
DeleteTJ: Yup, probably most since the first week. This was a terrible NFL slate to bet on. Still, we have a strong policy against betting on kids to meet expectations, and that means our game of the week stays firmly within the NFL.
Boom: Even the Swami can see the Lions beat the Texans by a touchdown more often than not. Is there a more dominant team in the NFL?
TJ: The Chiefs are undefeated, but I still think the Lions are the better team. But this bet has just as much to do with the Texans. Something is off with that offense this year, even before Nico got hurt. And getting Joe Mixon back didn't fix it. I'd also argue that defense isn't right without Will Anderson. I think their only chance at a competitive game is to score early and keep the Lions from doing the same. The odds of that are low. This could turn into a boat race.
Boom: After multiple game of the week bets favoring the Texans, I'm proud of you for steering the ship in another direction.
TJ: If I didn't, you'd be putting excrement fires on my doorstep.
Indiana -14.5
ReplyDeletePittsburgh +3
Colts +4
Arizona +2
AP - LSU +3
Essay - SF -6.5 over Tampa Bay
It's not logical, but I can't get Baker's 2019 beatdown at the hands of the Niners out of my mind. Obviously, Baker has improved, but losing both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans is a blow for anyone. Tampa is on a slide, while the Niners are coming off a much-needed bye. History suggests the 49ers are pointed towards a second half renaissance. I like Kyle Shanahan coming out of the bye week (4-1 in last 5) much more than I do Baker slinging passes in the fourth quarter.
You already know I'm essaying Lions -3.5 at the lowly Texans. The league couldn't handle the Lions when they had zero pass rushers, and now its Zadarius Smith time. Surprisingly, the Lions did not take up Mike Tannenbaum on his trade suggestion of trading three first rounds picks and Jahmyr Gibbs for Myles Garrett. But Smith will be enough to start making QBs uncomfortable again. Oh, and how comfortable were opposing QBs when the Lions had no pass rushers? -50 point differential. The Texans are in pretty bad shape after getting bullied by the Jets, and the Lions are the last team they want to face after that. Here comes another double-digit Lions win.
ReplyDeleteLions -3.5 over Texans - essay
Indiana -14.5 over Michigan
Alabama -2.5 over LSU - AP
Army -4 over North Texas
Eagles -7.5 over Cowboys
Ravens -6 over Bengals - L
LSU all play
ReplyDeleteLSU AP
DeleteTitans 7 over Chargers
Colts 4 over Bills
49ers -6.5 over Bucs
Commanders -3 over Steelers
Essay: South Carolina -4 over Vanderbilt
I'm back in Nashville for my wife's 15 year law school reunion. (Mine was last year). Some of you guys are getting old.
This has been a magical season for my Commodores. Victories over both Alabama schools for the first time in the school's history. This included a dramatic home win over the Tide, after which the Vandy students toted the goalpoast all the way down to the Cumberland River. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5837652/2024/10/12/vanderbilt-goalpost-alabama-upset/
Unfortunately, South Carolina is on a roll. They just abused a very good Texas A&M team, running for almost 300 yards. They will come into Vandy's homecoming and spoil it. It won't spoil my time, and I certainly hope I'm wrong, but don't have a great feeling about this one for the 'Dores.
Restatement (2d) of Ohio over Kent
ReplyDeleteGeorgia
LSU
Texas essay
DeleteSun Belt William just got the vote of confidence from Florida AD Scott Stricklin in the midst of a 4-4 season. The Gators already have losses to traditional rivals Miami, (the other) UT, and Georgia. The sad thing is, you can’t really blame Stricklin for sticking to his guns here. This program is obviously reeling from the constant turmoil since Urban took his infamous sabbatical.
Part of the reason you bring back SBW? DJ Lagway, a talented young QB who has played well and largely was keeping the Gators in the game against Georgia last week until a hamstring injury caused him to be carted off.
Texas is probably as close to “back” as they’ve ever been, and they host the Gators. Lagway will play (maybe?) but be limited. 22.5 is a huge number but I struggle to see UF staying within 30 without a healthy Lagway.
Loins and Cards to round out the week
DeleteAP. Alabama -2.5 @ LSU. Can't win with a scab tiger on the sideline.
ReplyDelete1. Iowa -6.5 @ UCLA
2. Clemson -6.5 @ Virginia Tech
3. Bears -6 v. Patriots
4. Saints -3.5 v. Falcons
E. Lions -3.5 @ Texans
Lions have been the best team in football. Houston has struggled with injuries especially to the WR corp and the offensive line. Detroit has been scoring on everyone putting up video games numbers. Houston's problems are just too much, ions dream season continues.
uab +7
ReplyDeletetexas tech +4
alabama -2.5 ap
colts +4 essay
vikings -7
falcons -3.5
last thursday chuck pagano was on pat mcafee, their guest was hjosh allen. the conversation was all about joe flacco to wit: don't forget how solid his career has been. kinda false humble on the part of j allen but if the bills can be beaten it's on the road. the colts record is a reflection of their quarterback carousel. this weekend, my pick is to back the veteran. (see what i did there?) give me the colts +4.
Deletehometeam
cal -7 at wake
ReplyDelete1 (w) cal -7 at wake
Delete2 uconn -7 at uab
army -4 at unt
3 tenn -24.5 vs missyst
4 AP lsu +2.5 vs bama
pitt -7.5 vs uva
5*** byu -3 at uu
giants -6.5 at panthers
colts +4 vs bills
6 chargers -7 vs titans
lions -3.5 at texans
i got so twisted up on army's bryson daily's status that i forgot to notice that u of CALIFORNIA is a member of the ATLANTIC COAST conference. quite sure that absurdity would've inspired three or more clause-laden sentences on the absolute state of the mercenary-while-not-fit-for-purpose university industrial complex. woulda been a banger. so i'll use my no essay week on byu.
Alabama
ReplyDeleteGeorgia
Broncos +7.5 over Chiefs
DeleteCowboys +7.5 over Eagles
Rams -1 over Dolphins
Essay: Jets -2 over Cardinals
Don't look now, but the Jets are in the thick of the AFC playoff race—and that'll be even more the case if they get to 4-6 with a win against the Cardinals. The Jets haven't played since Halloween and are coming off a big, potentially season-altering win over the Texans. Meanwhile, the Cardinals haven't looked dangerous since Week 1. The Commanders and Packers have blown them out, and their best wins came against the fraudulent Bears and the injury-depleted 49ers. It seems likely that Rodgers and Adams will continue to build chemistry, especially with Garrett Wilson demanding a double-team. That'll happen today and the Jets will win.
1. AP: Alabama
ReplyDelete2. Ole Miss
Delete3. Commanders
Delete4. Colts
5. Lions
6. Essay: Eagles
Cowboys are like the Browns, cooked. Honestly this is just about the fact that the Eagles have so much more skill at that the positions that matter. Eagles: Hurts, Barkley, Brown Dallas: really cant think of anyone outside of Lamb. Dak going out for surgery is the cowboys waving the checkered flag and moving on to next year. I like the Eagles to come out and just dominate, never really having to worry about the spread.
ESSAY: Kansas. Hot off the 5-1 week, but you guessed it the 1 was the essay Packers. Unlike last year where the essays came through this year they have not. Back to the well with Kansas here, who is 2-6 but quite potent and improving. This should be their max effort spot for the season. Iowa St. has been scraping by and its very average. They are due to get waxed. I think the spot where it happens is here. Too much Jalon D.
ReplyDeleteOthers:
Virginia Tech
Washington
Utah
Titans
All play: Alabama
GL everyone.
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ReplyDeleteThe entire state of Texas must be breathing a sigh of relief this week as they know they will soon be safe from the hundreds of thousands murderous immigrants who will no longer be flooding the state to eat their pets . Now they can focus on football and not have to worry about their mammalian mascots. Texas tech can fearlessly display the Masked Rider and not have to bring out the horseless Red Raider, which Wikipedia felt it needed to point out was a human wearing a costume. (“Around the 1971 football season, the Southwest Conference created a rule forbidding the bringing of live animal mascots to away games unless the host school allowed it. Since the Masked Rider's horse might be prohibited from traveling to some games under this rule, an alternate mascot named Raider Red was created; Raider Red is a person wearing a normal mascot costume. “) Also Colorado is getting a bit too big for their britches with their 6 game cover streak. I’m going to join the 7% of betters picking Texas Tech +4 along with my other Texan votes.
Delete-Texas -22.5
-LSU (it’s basically Texas)
-Texans +3.5
-North Texas +4
Georgia -2.5 v Ole Miss
ReplyDeleteIndiana -14.5 v Michigan
Bama -2.5 v LSU (all play)
BYU -3 v Utah (essay)
Cards +2 v Jets
Falcons -3.5 v Saints
AP: Alabama -2.5
ReplyDeleteKansas +3.5
Virginia +7.5
Texans +3.5
Cowboys +7.5
Titans +7 (Essay)
Back home on the east coast after a week in sunny AZ, where the clocks don’t change. So I’m not as messed up with the time difference as I should be. It’s another underdog week, with the Titans and Chargers slated for what should be a defensive contest. The Titans have the league’s best defense paired with one of the worst offenses. The Chargers offense is slightly less anemic, their defense is maybe one tier down from the Titans. In a game likely to be close the 7 point spot greatly aids, so let’s triple cheddar the Titans.
LSU +2.5 vs Alabama
ReplyDeleteGiants -6.5 vs Panthers
DeleteSteelers +3 vs Commanders
Jets -2 vs Cards
Bears -6 vs Pats
Bills -4 vs Colts
Joshy Allen and the bills ride into Indy and come away victorious with an easy cover. Indy is trying to save their season going with Flacco which I respect but it's over boys. I can't name a single player on your defense and Buffalo is playing a humble, solid game of football that may serve them very well come playoff time. Boy Amari Cooper is an awesome receiver but also a strange one, as he always get so hurt during the season. If he starts balling out, buff can get to another level.
All play Bama -2.5
ReplyDeleteVikings -7 over Jaguars
DeleteCardinals +2 over Jets
Bills -4 over Colts
49ers -6.5 over Bucs
Essay Eagles -7.5 over Cowboys -- Don't love any of these games and definitely don't love the hook but I still think this line is overvaluing Dallas. In a vacuum, with a healthy Dak Prescott, it's #9 vs #25 in DVOA, and then I googled Phi/Dal and got the sentence "There remains the strong possibility that the Cowboys will deploy certain packages today vs. the Eagles that use Trey Lance." The Eagles offense has been good for 4 TDs the last three weeks against comparable-or-better opposition (Giants, Jaguars, Bengals). Eight points is well within the realm of possibility here.
I'll keep the pick but I am cancelling the Eagles essay because everything above is even more applicable to Vikings/Jags (#5 vs #26) now that Trevor Lawrence is out. My Vikings essay last week ended up a bit of a nailbiter but the defense lived up to its billing down the stretch and I fear that Mac Jones is about to get his damn head knocked off. Another three biscuits on the purple guys and I just hope Sam Darnold is not in the middle of turning back into a pumpkin.
Delete402 yards to 143 yards and they could only win by 5. Meanwhile I am watching the Eagles merrily run up the score in Dallas. This is why you should never reconsider things.
DeleteMidweek Maction Action
ReplyDeleteNIU -14
After a brilliant start to the season, Northern Illinois suffered 4 heartbreaking losses, each by one score. A win tonight and a win over CMI in 2 weeks are their best chances to make a bowl game as Miami-O next week will also be looking for bowl eligibility. Akron’s bad numbers are a bit inflated secondary to their playing The Ohio State, but the Huskies have something to prove.
Speaking of Miami O, I’ll also take them for -30.5 over Kent and I’ll round out my Wednesday with EMU +11 vs OU