Week 8 from Guardos Nation: Chiefs +1.5 at Niners
Happy football voting weekend in Guardos Nation, folks. We are literally living a movie (Major League) here in Cleveland this week.
Super Bowl rematch in Santa Clara for the all play.
College here: http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Week-8-college.pdf
Pro here: http://www.clevelandfrowns.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Week-8-NFL.pdf
Go Guards!
Oregon
ReplyDeleteMizzou
DeleteRutgers
In this week of chalk I will take the troops. Army.
DeleteThank you Mayoral Notarial for supporting the troops
DeleteBrowns
DeleteNiners Essay
While the Niners are a surprising 3-3, the Chiefs have essentially had their asses crowned for a three peat. Certainly the Chiefs appear to be firing on all cylinders but this Niners team is talented and experienced. Niners are getting a boost from Ricky Pearsall’s debut after getting shot over a Rolex (assuredly the vice president’s fault and maybe also Sherrod Brown’s). Feels like a narrative game and oftentimes the team with the worse record makes a statement of sorts so that’s what I’m looking for here. Gimme the Niners.
BYU -8.5 over Okie St
ReplyDeleteIllinois +4 over Michigan
Nebraska +6.5 over Indiana
Texas -5 over Georgia
49ers -1.5 over Chiefs
Jets -1.5 over Steelers - essay
I'm fading Russ Wilson here, also can't discount Aaron Rodgers playing better and feeling better cause he's got more of his boys with him. This is also a big time, back up against the wall moment for the Jets, as they can't afford another loss this early if they want any hope left for the postseason. Steelers at 4-2 have been living a bit of a charmed life and probably deserved to have one or two more losses. Either way, expecting some serious disruption with Russ starting and reminding everyone about the time Denver took a billion dollar cap hit to make him go away because he can't play football anymore.
Rutgers (-4.5) over UCLA
ReplyDeleteBoom: NFL Primetime back with a new sponsor! Tom Jackson, take it away.
DeleteTJ: That's right, after a long day of work, I always refuel with a can of Chunky Soup.
Boom: Where's your mom, though? They always appear in these ads.
TJ: Boom, we're in Jacksonville, and my mom is dead.
Boom: Eegh, well, yes, I understand, as is Mama Berman - God rest her soul - but... don't they provide paid actors for this?
TJ: Get real, we don't have that kind of budget. And I don't need my momma to microwave soup.
ALL PLAY: 49ers (-1.5) over Chiefs
DeleteRutgers (-4.5) over UCLA
Bengals (-6) over Browns
Lions (+1.5) over Vikings
Jets (-1.5) over Steelers
ESSAY: Bucs (+3.5) over Ravens
Boom: Well, uh, for lack of a better segue, with this particular sponsor comes the need to avoid the fabled Chunky Soup Curse. It's not like we've been winning a lot of biscuits lately anyways.
DeleteTJ: I... I'm going to scoot past all the superstition and negativity for a moment. This is one of the few opportunities to take the points with a team that just put up over 50 points. I expect this to be a shootout, so Antoine Winfield getting healthy will go a long way to getting a backbreaking takeaway. Also, keep an eye on Vita Vea; he will be a disruptor all Monday night, both in running lanes for Derrick Henry and the best way to pressure Lamar Jackson. Vea has sacks in three straight games, and I don't expect that streak to end.
NCAA:
ReplyDeleteIndiana
Eastern Carolina
Essay: Dolphins - Sitting at 2-3 and off a bye, the Dolphins have had a rough start to the season. Even with Tua, they were limited and underperformed. McDaniels has also become something of a laughing stock (partly for his new hairdo) and overall sentiment has been negative. With Huntley, the offense has looked particularly limited, but they were able to squeak out a very narrow win at New England to keep their season reasonably alive. Now with Tua hoping to return next week, there is a glimmer of hope and they get the defensively injury riddled and challenged Colts PLUS they get Anthony Richardson. I believe this is a buy low spot on the Dolphins in a pivotal game for their season.
DeleteOthers:
Cardinals
Jets
Essay: 49ers
AP: Niners -1.5
ReplyDeleteMissouri -4
California -10
Iowa -6
Falcons -3 (Essay)
Texans +3
This NFL season features a couple of teams that historically get no love from the oddsmakers (and generally rightly so): Commanders and the Falcons. It’s easy to forget that Atlanta has a professional football team (fun fact: they have had one since 1966). They were truly forgettable from inception until Deion Sanders arrived in the late 80s. And even then they have been forgettable despite Super Bowl appearances and a good run with Matt Ryan and the Michael Vick era. This season they’re doing well and staying in every game. Seattle is floundering of late and I don’t see it stopping. They have zero national profile and being under the radar helps with the handicaps - worth the extra Cheddars.
Nebraska +6.5 over Indiana
ReplyDeleteTexas A&M -18.5 over Miss. State
Georgia +5 over Texas
Illinois +4 over Michigan
Chiefs +1.5 over 49ers
Essay: Browns +6 over Bengals
The Browns are facing immense pressure to show SOME offensive competence this week, and I think they will. Nick Chubb's return should mean an actual run game, something that has been missing all year. Being back at home should mean fewer pre-snap penalties on offense, something that's killed them the past three weeks. And the Amari Cooper trade should mean more targets for Jerry Jeudy, who's looked like the Browns' best receiver this season. Plus, Kevin has always owned the Bengals, Denzel Ward has always locked down Ja'Marr Chase, and Joe Burrow apparently picked up a shin injury at practice this week. Sounds like a Browns cover to me!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-l19dDEgsg
ReplyDeleteAnd in other stadium news, the USMA is spending $170M to 'preserve' Michie Stadium. IOW, the caretakers most lovely venue in all D1 football with unmatched views of Hudson Valley hardwood forests in fall decided they have to keep up with the trend of wretched excess found throughout college athletics as well as higher ed in general. Lookit, if Northwestern wants to spend 800M of private funds on a palace so Trip and Muffy can have treadmills with unobstructed views of Lake Michigan, fine I guess. But a new East Stands has to be built because... central to the mission of West Point? Problems recruiting? Core of Cadets needs comfy seating behind them while they stand all game? Use it or lose defense budgeting? It's all just part and parcel of today's USA where infinity money printing sustains the four growth areas in this economy: government, defense, academia and healthcare; and questioning why is never on the table for these things. While it's pretty impressive to feed three of these four bloated bureaucracies in one project, it's still blackpilling that tearing up the hideous fieldturf is not part of the project. They run a rebranded wishbone ffs, and run it better than anyone, (That's why they're my essay pick at -17 vs ECU.) at least they could run it on grass as god intended.
1 ***army -17 vs ecu
2 wisco -7.5 at nu
mizzou -4 vs auburn
3 txst -9.5 at odu
cal -10 at ncsu
tamu -18.5 at clanga
memphis -11 vs unt
pats +6 vs jags
4 bengals -6 at browns
fins +3 at colts
5 lions +1.5 at vikes
giants +3.5 vs eagles
6AP niners -1.5 vs chiefs
bucs +3.5 vs ravens
East Carolina +17, Nebraska +6.5
ReplyDeleteFrom placeholder post Ok St essay win and Virginia tech win
Patriots and 49ers
DeleteOhio 3.5 over J Crew U
ReplyDeleteTexas -5 over UGA
DeleteOhio L
DeleteTexas L
Browns 6 over Bengals
Seahawks 3 over Falcons
Chiefs over 49ers
Essay: Jags -6 over Pats
Getting this one in right before the buzzer. Finally a get right spot for the London Jags. They stave off the plucky Pats and Drake Maye and pull away late, saving their embattled coach’s job for one more week.
ncaaf
ReplyDeleteuab
arizona
nfl
colts -3
vikings -1.5 essay
texans +3
chiefs +1.5 all play
a slim favorite, the vikings can extend their division lead w a win against the lions. hard to go against the lions hc campbell and the team's formidable offense. detroit has 4 out 5 wins in their past 5 match-ups. watch for vikings cashman & van ginkel to apply pressure. fall 2024 (omit last winter's 2024 games) the vikings are 5-0-0 ats. (we like it) sam darnold has enjoyed a personal renaissance under vike's hc o'connell. it's a great story! even darnold's stats are lucky: 1,111 passing yards, 11 tds, avg 222.2 yards/game. give me the vikings +1.5
hometeam
Alabama -3 to Tennessee
ReplyDeleteIllinois +4 to Michigan
Texas -5 to Georgia (essay)
Essay: Texas wins bigs games, typically Georgia does not. Georgia has been struggling beating average big5 team. Texas has been crushing others (see Oklahoma & Michigan) - I think Texas is back
DeleteFalcons -3 to Seattle
DeleteChiefs +1.5 to Bengals (all play)
Bills -9.5 to Titans
Niners -1.5 vs chiefs AP EP
ReplyDeleteShowcase game for Purdy. Dude is playing so well and carrying this team, he seems like a great guy so who isn't happy about this development. It would make sense to me that he outperforms the leagues best shovel passer in this middle of October matchup. Thanks to the Lions and Niners and overall qb development, the NFC is finally waking up from its slumber as a second rate league when compared to the AFC. Niners have too many weapons on offense and I'll always gravitate at the chance to go against shovel pass Mahomes.
Illinois +4 vs Michigan
Iowa -6 vs Mich St
Browns +6 vs Bengals
Bucs +3.5 vs Ravens
Texans +3 vs Packers
AP. 49ers -1.5 v. Chiefs
ReplyDelete1. Patriots +6 @ Jaguars
2. Raiders +7 @ Rams
3. Buccanneers +3.5 v. Ravens
4. Colorado +2.5 @ Arizona
E. Steelers +1.5 v. Jets
Steelers got me an easy W, so I'll go back to that well this week. Jets got the new coach bounce last week in that they were competitive against the Bills. This week that limited offense gets the Steeler who just inexplicably win. I'd like them more if they stuck with Justin Fields. But if Mike Tomlin thinks they are better with Russ Wilson, and the team echos that, who am I to disagree. Steelers at home at night and I get points? Yep.
REPOSTING FROM FRIDAY
ReplyDeleteDK - Cleveland Reboot October 18, 2024 at 8:15 AM
Georgia +5
Army -15.5
Iowa State -13.5
Seattle +3
AP - SF -1.5
Essay - Indy -3 over Miami
Miami with Tua is maybe an 8-9 or 9-8 team. Miami without Tua is a bottom-five outfit. The league has figured out Mike McDaniel, especially since he's starting either a guy the Browns cut (Tyler Huntley) or a guy named Skylar. (His mom must have loved hair metal bands). Either way, the Dolphins are an uninspiring bunch.
The Colts on the other hand, are a sneaky fun team that's been on a roll of late. The Colts have harnessed Flacco Magic the last few weeks, but will bring Anthony Richardson back against a poor Dolphins' run defense. I think either QB wins it this week. On a side note, isn't it fascinating that the Colts front office and/or Richardson weren't worried about bringing in Flacco. Guess the young QB has thicker skin than Deshaun.
Anyway, I'll throw in Indy's solid 5-1 ATS against the Dolphins' sorry 1-4 ATS.
1. All Play: SF
ReplyDelete2. UGA +5
3. MSU +6
4. Kentucky -1.5
5. Browns
6. Essay: Seattle
Seattle has had a tough three game stretch. I like them to bounce back here and get the cover, if not the win.Both teams are 6-0 on the over this year. Hopefully Seattle, and Geno in a dome, will be able to match Atlanta's offense. Geno's play is elevated in domes so Im feeling confident in that talking point. I feel like Seattle is undervalued and Atlanta is a bit overvalued. Looking to take advantage of that in this spot.
Last minute college pick: Texas -5 over Georgia
ReplyDeleteAll-Play Chiefs +1.5 over 49ers
DeleteRavens -3.5 over Bucs
Bills -9.5 over Titans
Chargers -2 over Cardinals
Essay Colts -3 over Dolphins -- an almost exactly average team facing the Dolphins, for whom it has all gone horribly wrong. Anthony Richardson has been all over the place when he's played, but hopefully he doesn't need too many heroics in this one (even without Jonathan Taylor). I am guessing the three point line is an overreaction to Miami's victory over the similarly woeful Patriots and that the losses by 20ish to the Titans and Seahawks are going to be more predictive.
Getting in just before the buzzer on Utah Utes -3 over TCU
ReplyDeleteVote of the week: Browns +6 over Bengals. Here's my essay, which is not for the haters and the worst people in the world, but for the rest of us.
Deletehttps://www.clevelandfrowns.com/2024/10/the-nfls-slavemasters-are-cracking-down-on-deshaun-watson-to-an-unprecedented-degree/
Will also go with the Ravens, Steelers, Niners, and Vikings today
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteim seeing a shsu -6 at fiu line on vsin right now and i would like to grab the bearkats for one biscuit to make for an even more pleasant call by old friend concierge tonight.
ReplyDeletenbd if not allowed/do-able.