Week 6: Vikings (-2.5) v. Jets in London (Sunday, 9:30 AM EST)
Not sure we've ever done this before but this week's slate requires us to head overseas for the All Play with the undefeated Vikings short (2.5 point) favorites over the Jets on Sunday morning (please note the early (9:30 AM) start time).
The rest of the NFL lines are here; college lines here; And the Pat Bryant for Heisman Committee thanks the Cheddar Bay field for its historic support of the Illini last week in Happy Valley. What developments of note might emerge in this week's thread? This is why they play the games folks. The Executive Committee once again wishes a safe and joyous football voting weekend to all.
Falcons -2.5 over Bucs for a single please
ReplyDeleteVote of the Week: UNLV -6 over Syracuse. Lost in all the excitement over the QB leaving over broken NIL promises is the fact that the Rebels have an SEC-caliber head coach at the helm who probably got a raw deal at Missouri, took a pit stop to be defensive coordinator in Arkansas, and has since taken some really talented players with him to the desert and in particular a pair of linebackers who've been tearing it up in the middle of the field for the Rebs. This feels like a game where sharps and casual bettors alike will be betting on the Rebels' streak to end tonight against a 3-1 Syracuse squad and I think these Rebs are still underpriced at this point.
Delete....
DeleteIowa +19 over tOSU
NOLES +15 over Clemson
Jets -2.5, Browns +3.5
DeleteBucs (+2.5)
ReplyDeleteTennessee (-13.5) over Arkansas
DeleteRutgers (+6.5) over Nebraska
DeleteBoom: NFL Primetime, Chris Berman going solo this week. You know that that means. It's Swami season!
DeleteTJ: *muffled behind window* Let me in, my key doesn't work!
Boom: Stay out before you bet on the Texans three weeks in a row!
TJ: *muffled behind window* I'm sorry, ok? Just let me in!
ALL PLAY: Jets (+2.5) over Vikings
Tennessee (-13.5) over Arkansas
Rutgers (+6.5) over Nebraska
Bucs (+2.5) over Falcons
Saints (+5.5) over Chiefs
ESSAY: Commies (-3.5) over Browns
Boom: Sometimes, you gotta go with your gut. If armies march on their stomachs, so can I. When winning biscuits is the objective, even more so.
TJ: *muffled behind window* Boom, take the Packers!
Boom: *annoyed* Some may like Jordan "Love Boat", but Swami Seys... the Commies are coming! Who needs a hundred-year plan when you have "Iron" Jayden Daniels leading the charge? Those Brownies are still trying to get a Chubb going, but they'll have to suffer with a flaccid offense for at least one more week.
TJ: *muffled behind window* Gross.
ReplyDeleteColleen’s salute to service recognizes the excellent work of our military fbs teams this year. Navy and Army are undefeated going in to week 5-something unheard of in the modern era (defined as the years I have been in cheddar bay). Maybe a fear of deployment if their teams are underperforming? The Fly Boys on the other had better get their act together. Air Force has not covered while navy has 3 in a row. Their only win is against Merrimack, which is a college I just learned existed about 5 minutes ago. Air Force + 10
Wisconsin
Nevada
Jets all play
Dolphins
Falcons
UNLV (-6.5)
ReplyDeleteJacksonville (-2.5)
New England (-1)
Baltimore (-2)
AP - Jets (+2.5)
Essay - Washington (-3.5) over Cleveland
Let me take you on a trip to a magical time in Cheddar history - 2017. A rookie upstart named DK locked onto Hue Jackson and DeShone Kizer, riding them to a second-place overall finish in the Cheddar standings. History may repeat itself seven years later, as the Cleveland Browns boast the league's most dysfunctional offense and a very ordinary defense. It's time to ride this trainwreck.
The Washington Commanders are the antithesis of the Browns. They are well coached, younger, motivated, healthy and feature a star rookie QB. The Kingsbury offense is wildly efficient, spraying passes all over the place to a variety of receivers. The Browns have struggled to defend against three very ordinary offenses (Dallas, NYG and LV). Washington is the best offense the Browns will face in the early part of the schedule. Based on Jim Schwartz's history of good QBs shredding his defenses and because he refuses to mix up his coverages, this could be a record day for Jayden Daniels.
Michigan +2.5 over Washington
ReplyDeleteFlorida +2.5 over UCF
Nebraska -6.5 over Rutgers
Jets +2.5 over Vikings (AP)
Packers -3 over Rams
Commanders -3.5 over Browns
This week's essay is the Commanders. We're all aboard the Jayden Daniels train. It seems the new Washington ownership understands that the real market inefficiency right now is going all-in for your rookie QB. Now you're probably thinking, what do you mean, every team goes all-in with their rookie QB. You'd think so, but actually no. Who is coaching Caleb Williams right now? Noted dipshit Matt Eberflus and generic nobody OC Shane Waldron. Remember when Trevor Lawrence's first year OC was the king of generic nobodies, Darrell Bevell? The Commies surveyed the field and knew that they need a bona fide QB guru if they were going to commit the 2nd pick. They tried Ben Johnson, and when he turned them down, they made sure the new staff had Kliffy K on board. That's how you make sure that your franchise QB's entrance to the league goes well, giving the talent a chance to do the rest. Surprising act of competence from this franchise.
DeleteThe Browns on the other hand? Well......maybe the Guards will carry the day in October...
northern illinois -17.5
ReplyDeleteuab +1.5
app state +3.5
vikings -2.5 (all play)
bears -3.5
steelers -2.5 essay
AP: Vikings -2.5
ReplyDeleteSMU +6.5
Oklahoma St. -3
Duke +9
Jaguars -2.5 (Essay)
Cardinals +7
On paper the Jags and Colts have similar stats. At the QB position the Colts are showing some sloppiness. On the other side Trevor Lawrence is a little slow out of the gate (like the rest of the team) but isn’t tossing INTs like they’re going out of style. The Jags are a better team than their record indicates and I don’t see them in the running for the 2025 first round draft pick. The Colts were talked about being an up and coming team, and like the Jags aren’t living up to the billing. Could this be the week the Jags get into the win column? It’s a winnable game (it’s not like the Chiefs are coming to town) so let’s throw some extra cheddars on the Jags.
AP. Jets +2.5 v. Vikings
ReplyDelete1. Tennesee -13.5 @ Arkansas
2. Toledo -6.5 v. Miami
More to come
3. Raiders +3.5 @ Broncos
Delete4. Panthers +3.5 @ Bears
E. Browns +3.5 @ Commanders
I've essayed the Browns twice now and gotten burned, so of course I'm trying a third time. I have no reason to believe the Browns turned anything resembling a corner last week. The QB won't throw the flag left. I don't believe he trusts his arm. His best receiver is eying safeties and dropping balls for INTs because he's not sure when the ball will arrive. The tackles are broken, but maybe the injured starters are back this week?
Anyways, Myles Garrett allegedly feels good. I'm sure the notoriously great turf in Landover will help that.
Jayden Daniels is due for a "rookie game". The Browns defense is good enough to create that. Will it happen? Who knows. Am I essaying it against my better judgement? You're damn right! GO BROWNS!
Hopefully they get they can manage to not get themselves down by an insurmountable 7 or more points again this week.
Iowa 19 over OSU
ReplyDeleteIowa L
DeleteMy dumbass forgot to pick the AP
Jags -2.5 over Colts
Steelers -2.5 over Cowboys
Browns 3.5 over Commanders
Essay: Dolphins +1over Pats
I have no idea how the Bengals lost to this Pats team. They are wretched. They should not be giving points to anyone. Enter the Dolphins, 0-4 ATS thus far, and themselves reeling. No matter. Return of Terron Armstead and Raheem Mostert will allow the Fins to get it going on the ground. Dolphins eek out an ugly win.
Tennessee
ReplyDeleteBC
Mizzou
Rutgers
DeleteJets
DeleteVery little Cheddar Bay interest in Packers at Rams, with lots of attention on the apparently atrocious Browns. Rams are a home dog who it seems the public is a little sour on. I get that the Rams are extremely banged up but we’ve seen Stafford pull some things out of the fire in the past and the Rams are quickly getting into must win territory if they’re going to have any playoff shot at all. The Packers were a chic NFC North pick that have disappointed thus far. Conventional wisdom has long been that you want to draw the Packers in a dome or in fair weather which you will have here. Travel does not favor the Pack here either. I like the Rams to pull the upset.
Delete1. PSU -27.5
ReplyDelete2. OSU .19
3. AP: didnt get it in
Delete4. Browns
5. Cards
6. Essay Steelers
I like the Steelers against the Cowboys. I think the Cowboys are a bit overrated and the Steelers defensive line will give Dak some problems. Steelers should be able to run all over the Cowboys and pull away early. Cowboys are one of those teams if you can get up on them they aren't great at making a comeback. Im going against Americas team in a prime time game and I love that spot tbh.
South Carolina +9 over Ole Miss
ReplyDeleteIndiana -13.5 over NW
Jets +2.5 over Vikings
Bills -1 over Texans
Browns +3.5 over Commanders
Essay: Cowboys +2.5 over Steelers
DeleteThe Cowboys should be fresh coming off a mini-bye (and a big division win); the Steelers came back down to earth last week and will have to rely on Najee Harris to get anything going on offense (Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson will be out). Russell Wilson supposedly maybe will play? If he does, I expect his over-the-hill-ness to shine through, as it has since 2022; if he doesn't Justin Fields will continue to be one-dimensional. The Steelers' 3-0 start was exceedingly fluky and that will be as apparent as ever tonight.
Essay: Nebraska. If at first you don't succeed... Hope to get off the mat here in this year's cheddar bay with Fauxhomes and the Huskers. Rutgers has a solid record but was dominated statistically last week and had a wrong box win. Nebraska has been solid and this looks to be a spot where they can increase their profile at home. Only concern is wind forecast but if Nebraska gets out to an early lead I think the ways back for Rutgers are limited.
ReplyDeleteDolphins
Washington Huskies
Browns
Texas Tech
AP: Jets
Ohio State -19 to Iowa
ReplyDeleteUtah State +27 to Boise State
USC -8 to Minnesota
Steelers -2.5 to Cowboys
All play: Vikings -2.5 to Jets
Essay: Bears -3.5 to Panthers
Bears essay: The Bears (& Caleb) play better at home.
DeleteThe panthers are already in trade rumors- in week 4! Bears offense finally starts scoring. I’d take Bears at -10 and team total over 28.
1 marshall -3.5 vs app st
ReplyDelete2 asu -2.5 vs ku
3 cal +10.5 vs miami
4ap vikes -2.5 vs jets
5 panthers +3.5 at bears
6***-colts +2.5 at jags
we'll go ahead and essay this week's 'twitter bowl' and ride with the colts' excuse-free non-rusty backup qb who inexplicably doesn't play for the team he led to the playoffs last year. of course jacksonville is the site of our qb's banner and only win of 2024. he throttled my poty with his 186 yds of pass offense and season high qbr 32.2.* will be interesting to see if the colts' backup can meet or beat the slash line of our tail-working-off qb. but wait let's check that depth chart to see if other teams have injuries too. colts will be down an all-pro rb, a first round starting center from bama in addition to having lost their top rated player (buckner) for the year. bad oc? jim bob cooter,, i got nothing. soft head coach? well it was interesting to learn shane steichen cut his teeth on chud's 2013 browns team as a qb assistant and wrangled 300 yd performance out of jason campbell, brian hoyer, and brandon weedon. lolololol. only the browns man. anyway, a coach who has touched magic like that early in his career and who also doesnt let his tight end meet the press looking like he's auditioning for the lead in a zeke mowatt or shawn kemp documentary should be able coax a winning performance out of notable winner like flacco sunday.
*pardon me, watson had 36.8 qbr vs the maxx-crosby-free raiders in last week's loss (which was due to reasons entirely outside of the quarterback's control). so his 32.2 at jax was not his highest but his second highest rated game; higher the 25.6 at giants (due to reasons beyond his control) and the 7.6 qbr in the season and home opener with literally six months of prep (also caused by things that are not in any way the responsibilty of deshaun). we regret the error.
FSU +15 vs Clemson
ReplyDeletePanthers +3.5 at Bears
DeleteCowboys +2.5 vs Steelers
Jags -2.5 vs Colts
Browns +3.5 vs Commanders**Essay
I would suggest that Deshaun yelling at Dewand last week is a good sign and perhaps our supremely disappointing quarterback is finally is showing real urgency in his offense doing better. would the browns be 3-1 or 4-0 if Flacco was QB? Agree that there should be a regression with the Washington QB, and Browns should be the far more 'desperate' team. The browns used to be good at one thing, kicking the shit out of the ball. D-Hop missing that extra point last week was painful. well i just think this week won't be a disaster and the team plays well and/or watson finally has a good game.
College game Miami -10.5 over Cal, All Play Vikings -2.5 over Jets.
ReplyDeleteCowboys +2.5 over Steelers
DeleteRavens -2 over Bengals
Bills -1 over Texans
Essay Commanders -3.5 over Browns -- joining in for the most heavily essayed game of the week! The half point definitely feels like bait but we pick the games on paper and this is how the game looks on paper: a pleasant surprise vs an unpleasant surprise, #16 vs #32 in DVOA. Entirely possible for the Browns to suddenly emerge from their shells and start putting up points, but it certainly hasn't happened yet this season and the mere possibility is not enough for me to go the other way on this one.
Tuesday night college football has started! Florida international +17.5
ReplyDeleteMake that 16.5
DeleteWednesday night football has also started. New Mexico State +21.5
DeleteGive me James Madison -8 for tonight
ReplyDelete