Week 5: Georgia -2 at Alabama
The Executive Committee was beginning to wonder if there'd be an All-Play-worthy college matchup at all this season but here we are with Alabama getting two points at home versus Georgia which shall do for this week.
The rest of the college lines are here; The NFL lines are here; And the Exec. Comm. is wishing all another blessed and glorious weekend of football voting as always.
I'll take the Giants +5 for one point please thanks
ReplyDeleteIllinois +18 over State Penn
DeleteMichigan State +23.5 over tOSU
Georgia in the All Play
Colts +1.5 over Steelers
DeleteVote of the week: Ravens -2.5 over Bills
"Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are about to be on the same football field for the first time in nearly two years, and those around them with the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens are preparing for another classic." Eh I don't really think there's such a thing as a Week 4 "classic" in the NFL anymore. The Bills are off to a 3-0 start having not really played anybody. The Ravens are at home needing to pull to .500 after a disappointing start that included what should have been a win in KC. Don't really see the Bills emptying the playbook to win this game and no matter who wins the Super Bowl this season I don't think anyone is going to look back at this game and say that it mattered a bit.
Army -12.5 for the Thursday single
ReplyDeleteAlso put me down for Illinois +18 against PSU, Michigan -9.5 in the LBJ game, and the Bama +2 for the all-play.
DeleteRams +3
DeleteBengals -4.5
We're gonna show some faith in our Alma Mater and devote this essay to Bret Bielema and the Fighting Illini. This is a number #19 v #9 matchup and the line is an eye-popping 18 points. Some people might suggest this is because Vegas knows something about this matchup that isn't obvious to the general public. I will suggest that this is just more of the pervasive disrespect Central Illinoisers are forced to endure. Penn State is getting credit for filling up on bread before the meal, and they haven't been tested. Illinois has already shown they can go into a hostile environment against a ranked conference opponent and come back out with the dub. Let's also not forget when Bielema led his Illini into Happy Valley for 9 OT victory in 2021. Even last year, when Illinois had trouble channeling their trademark grit, PSU only won by 17.
DeleteJust wish I had gone POTY for Army last night. Woof.
1. Cowboys -5
ReplyDelete2. AP: Georgia -2
Delete3. OSU -23.5
4. PSU-18
5.
6.
5.
Delete6 Essay Browns +2
Two teams desperate to win. Two teams with a bunch of injuries. I think the combo of no Crosby or Adams trumps our injuries. A little scared that the game is on the road but maybe it helps Watson to not be booed the entire time or hear the home crowd chanting for Baker. Feels like every week is a must win for the Browns but I like them in a must win spot this afternoon.
my plays suck this week. last vote goes to lions
DeleteBoom: *sitting at fireplace while Lacrimosa plays*
ReplyDeleteTJ: Why is it so dark in here? We're going on air, Boom. Boom?
Boom: We had the lead, TJ. We had the lead, and we let it slip away.
TJ: Huh? We're still tied for the lead. We won two biscuits, big deal.
Boom: I knew those goddamn Texans uniforms had zero mojo. I told you that and you ignored me.
TJ: OK, take a deep breath. There will be weeks like this going forward, too, it happens to everyone. Let's start the show.
Boom: Brandt will fill you in on the games to cover.
TJ: *whisked away*
ALL PLAY: Alabama (+2) over Georgia
DeleteOklahoma State (+5) over Kansas State
Boom: *sitting at fireplace while Lacrimosa plays*
DeleteTJ: Why is it so dark in here? We're going on air, Boom. Boom?
Boom: We had the lead, TJ. We had the lead, and we let it slip away.
TJ: Huh? We're still tied for the lead. We won two biscuits, big deal.
Boom: I knew those goddamn Texans uniforms had zero mojo. I told you that and you ignored me.
TJ: OK, take a deep breath. There will be weeks like this going forward, too, it happens to everyone. Let's start the show.
Boom: Brandt will fill you in on the games to cover.
TJ: *whisked away*
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteTJ: Hi folks, welcome to NFL primetime. Swami isn't here and sends his regards. It's just as well, because I'm doubling down on the Texans to prove a point. This Jacksonville household has lifted the moratorium on bets involving the Jags, and, well, there's a lot of nice folks in that facility looking for other living arrangements. The Texans historically dominated the Jags, especially in recent years. Losing the locker room can lead up lopsided scores, as we saw last week against the Bills. I was tempted to make this the Play Of The Year, but if I lost another bet with the Texans that way, Chris Berman may quit on the spot.
DeleteAnother rough Chargers injury report means I'm changing that pick. Full picks below:
DeleteALL PLAY: Alabama (+2) over Georgia
Oklahoma State (+5) over Kansas State
Vikings (+3) over Packers
Bengals (-4.5) over Panthers
Browns (+2) over Raiders
ESSAY: Texans (-6.5) over Jaguars
Oklahoma St. (+5)
ReplyDeleteChicago (-3)
Buffalo (+2.5)
Tennessee (+1)
AP - Alabama (+2)
Essay - Raiders (-2) over Browns
Every year, I have a week about this time where I ignore advanced stats and go off my gut. Sometimes it's glorious. Others a disaster. Such is the beauty of this contest. My gut tells me the Browns are headed for an ugly season culminating in an offseason reset/rebuild (Just waiting for the league office to call Sue Robinson). My gut tells me the Browns are a team that got old quick at key spots. Their offense is the probably the worst in the league. And Jim Schwartz's defense is clearly the most arrogant. The Raiders aren't great, but the differences now are striking.
Two teams coming off bad losses look to rebound and/or save their seasons. Two teams with very different Head Coaches and QBs. Antonio Pearce looked like he was ready to rip someone's head off after their defeat. Kevin Stefanski was his usual emotionless shell. Gardner Minshew is fighting to stay an NFL starter. Deshaun Watson has clearly checked out. Minshew isn't a great QB by any stretch. But he is certainly the kind of QB who carves up Jim Schwartz defenses with quick, accurate throws and a lot of motion and booting (see last year's CLE-INDY game). We'll go with the Raiders in a game that could get ugly.
Restating my Army pick
ReplyDeleteColorado
Georgia
Illinois
Seattle
Oklahoma essay
Essay: Auburn has gone woke after Cal came in and took over Jordan-Hare Stadium. The War Eagle/Tigers/Plainsmen are 0-2 against the power 4 (and not the strongest teams in that group) so far. QB play is a big mess and Auburn scored 14 twice in those P4 matchups with a slew of turnovers. No real shame for Oklahoma not getting on track at home against an extremely good Tennessee team. This line (-2) feels like an overreaction to that score. Oklahoma will be too much for a very uneven Auburn squad.
Deleteapp state +3.5
ReplyDeleteu miami (ohio) -17
georgia -2 all play
saints +2.5
bucs +1.5
cardinals -3.5 essay
pundits predict commanders @ cardinals will be a shootout but arizona will dominate this game. jayden daniels was impressive last monday night (completed 91.% of passes) but it's a short week, on the road, west coast. and the washington defense has struggled. it's easy to say kliff kingsbury has the book on kyler murray but the opposite is also true. murray has only improved since kingsbury departure. murray has been reserved with phoenix media, no comment on coaching differences between kingsbury and current card's h.c. gannon. now murray can show kingsbury on the field that he (kingsbury) was right about the qb's game. arizona's offense played really well the first three weeks with rookie wide receiver marvin harrison jr. the cardinals win week 1 against the rams is their new standard. expect another win sunday. give me the cardinals -3.5
DeleteAP: Alabama +2
ReplyDeleteBall St +20.5
Wake Forest -3.5
Illinois +18 (Essay)
Bears -3
Commanders +3.5
There’s a lot of noise about Penn State for good reasons in 2024. They have a good program and have been fielding competitive teams for a few years. Not quite making the playoffs in the previous format, and thanks to the new format they should have a shot. So far this season they’ve opened it up against teams a couple of tiers down, which doesn’t say much. Illinois is coming off a solid win against Nebraska, and generally puts up a fight in conference games. Are they going to win in Happy Valley? Highly unlikely. Are they going to keep it within reason? Worth the extra cheddars.
NC state -6.5
ReplyDeleteKentucky +17
North Carolina has underperformed on paper this year-yet to cover a game despite 3 wins. For the football team that pioneered the forward pass in 1895, their passing this year has been a bit mid and you would a team that has spanned 3 centuries could handle some grass, they haven’t covered in the last 7 grass fields. They are 3rd in punt return yards so maybe we are in for a fun game on some Latitude 36 Bermuda Grass.
DeleteOther votes Georgia
Umass +17
TBD NFL
Lions
DeleteGeorgia over Bama
ReplyDeleteGeorgia (L)
DeleteFalcons -2.5 over Saints
Browns +2 over Raiders
Bears -3 over Rams
Jags 6.5 over Texans
Essay: Bengals -4.5 over Carolina
The Bengals are desperate. If they were 3-0 or even 2-1 this would be a classic trap game. But they aren’t, and they badly need a win. Lost in the shuffle of last week’s debacle against Washington is the fact that the Bengals offense did not punt. Tee Higgins is back and healthy. The Red Rifle had an awesome game last week, and Carolina looked like a real NFL team. But I think that’s a perfect storm for keeping this line relatively low. Bengals by 10+.
Write up later:
ReplyDeleteEssay: Penn St.
Colts
UAB
Ravens
Central Fla
AP: Georgia
Essay: Penn St. - Just realized I didn't put in the plays week 3, but good news it would have only been 1 point. Crappy start to the year here. Will go with a real head scratcher. This line makes no sense. None. Zero. Penn st. has looked like ass. Illinois has looked great. Has a solid coach, balanced offense. I mean I cannot make any case for Penn St. So then they have to be the essay, but not much to say.
DeleteGeorgia -2 vs Alabama AP
ReplyDeleteIllinois +18 vs PSU EP
Am I really going to add a third essay on Illinois after reading two and seeing Squeeky go naturally with PSU??? YES I am, Looking forward to squeeky explaining to us how can you watch Illinois against Kansas and Nebraska in prime time and still give them 18 points when PSU hasn't done anything. Luke Altmeyer looked like he was the best player on the field last week against Nebraska and I don't see that stopping against PSU. Altmeyer is not losing by more than 2 TDs unless his offensive playmakers melt down and fumble and drop stuff all over the place which is possible!! Illinoi's QB has got swag and has real players to throw the ball to. Bielema is the perfect coach for this program. Neutral settings and all things being fair, there is no one who would take Franklin over Bielema in "coaching" a game. For sure there is a little juice between Illinois and PSU thanks to that really weird 9 OT win over PSU in '21 in which I love bringing up to them over a beer. PSU fans are funny in my experience, they measure themselves against Michigan and OSU, and so they are miserable a lot of the time, even though they are always really good at football.
Bowling Green -10 vs Old D
Chargers +7 vs Chiefs
Dolphins -1 vs Titans
Browns +2 vs Raiders
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ReplyDeleteAP. Georgia -2 @ Alabama
ReplyDelete1. Rams +3 @ Bears
2. Commanders +3.5 @ Cardinals
3. Panthers +4.5 v. Bengals
4. Seahawks +3.5 @ Lions
E. Browns +2 @ Raiders
I hate to be doing this, sort of. But I have strong opinions and I'm going to be at the game, so here we are. The Browns season is about to go off the rails. They came in with high expectations after going 11-6 in a season where PJ Walker played important snaps. This year the offense has been worse than abysmal. The tackles are hurt, Njoku is still limping around, and #4 has been the 31st best QB that started week 1. So take the points on the road?
Absolutely, the Raidahs are just as bad. Gardner Minchew is the QB. Davante Adams is out. Maxx Crosby will watch this one from the sidelines too. There isnt' enough talent on that side of the field where the Browns still have Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward, JOK, Grant Delpit and others. Offensively, if there is a get right game, this has to be it.
So the Browns will win or all hell breaks loose. And quite frankly, I'm here for either outcome.
Go Browns!
[cheddar picks are starred.]
ReplyDeleteneb -10 at purdue
ole miss -17 vs uk
okla -2 at auburn
1 AP bama +2 vs uga
2* -wazzu +7 at boise
utah -10 vs zona
saints +2.5 at falcons
steelers -1.5 at colts
texans -6.5 vs jags
3*** -panthers +4.5 vs bengals
4* niners -10.5 vs pats
5* bills +2.5 at ravens
6* lions -3.5 vs seahawks
i'm gonna go ahead and believe those reads and throws andy dalton made last week are repeatable and that inserting a competent qb who doesn't require two years to craftbrew an offense to his specific strengths in an attempt to conceal his weaknesses in terms of defense reads or film study tendency-learning can change the trajectory of any offense. such a qb who is able to to 'get on the same page' with his primary target with zero games played together builds a vibe the lifts the entire team. weird, huh? anyway chubba hubbard is fine and diontae johnson doesn't suck and he hasnt even begun to unleash adam thielan. meanwhile the bengals look lost and who knew joe mixon was a difference maker. i mean outside of browns fans who saw him be underrated twice a year. definitely feeling value here as the public doesn't trust their eyes on the bengals weak start and skeptical that dalton can be good. he was always good in the regular season or at least serviceable and that's all we need this week. stubhub indicates high demand and panthers fans are willing to believe in almost anything, so crowd should be bumpin.
Purdue +10
ReplyDeleteIllinois +18
All play: Alabama +2
Vikings +3
DeleteBears -3
Bills +2.5 (Essay)
Bills essay: I just think the Bills will play a full game- the last 20 minutes of each ravens game has been concerning- they must fall apart. Wyoming strong JAllen might be down heading into the 4th- but he sure won’t be when time expires…also. The bills are averaging 37 points a game. That’s an anomaly on this years down scoring
DeleteAlabama +2 over Georgia
ReplyDeleteWisconsin +15.5 over USC
Eagles -1.5 over Bucs
DeleteRavens -2.5 over Bills
Packers -3 over Vikings
Essay: Browns +2 over Raiders
This Browns team resists easy narratives. When the world is high on them, they disappoint. When everyone is saying how bad they are—as was the case this week—the offense will look crisp and the defense will play tough. Then there's the facts that Kevin rarely loses two consecutive games and that the Raiders will be without Davante Adams and (probably?) Maxx Crosby. Deshaun must be thanking his lucky stars for the latter's absence; the passing game may actually have a chance to develop this week. It'll be good for the Browns to get away from the Huntington Bank Field boobirds, and this is truly a "gotta have it" game after falling to the Giants. I continue to think the Browns' ceiling this season is fairly low (8 or 9 wins and a loss in the wild-card round), but they'll get to 2-2 tomorrow.
All Play Georgia, the rest tomorrow
ReplyDeletePanthers +4.5 over Bengals
DeleteVikings +3 over Packers
Steelers -1.5 over Colts
Texans -6.5 over Jaguars
Essay Saints +2.5 over Falcons -- a pick against the Falcons, and specifically the Falcons' defense, more than a doubling down on New Orleans. This line may reflect a more pessimistic injury report as well as a close game against Philadelphia, but as of Sunday morning it looks like Kamara and Chris Olave are both playing. Usual disclaimer that DVOA is not opponent adjusted yet but at this point it's #2 giving points to #17.