Week 4: Ravens (-1) at Cowboys
As much as The Executive Committee has tried to avoid including the Dallas Cowboys in two of the season's first three all plays, this is reality football and reality has, once again, forced our hand. "Will the Ravens fall to 0 and 3 or will the Cowboys fall to 1 and 2?" is decidedly the most compelling question on the board this weekend, as confirmed by the point spread and top TV billing.
The rest of this NFL spreads are here, the college spreads are here, and the Exec. Comm. wishes all a blessed and glorious football voting weekend as always. Also, congrats to Agnes on this year's first Lobsterfest. Turns out that when you can take Cal minus 18.5 and Utah State plus 18.5 in the same weekend you've got to do it.
I’ll take App State, who will have a sold out crowd and ESPN on hand tonight, -7 over South Alabama
ReplyDeleteMichigan
DeleteToledo
Browns
DeleteRavens
Jags essay skip
DeleteTJ: You are not going to get anyone excited about those games in the intro. But, yeah, it's week 3 of the NFL, week 4 of Cheddar Bay, there you go.
ReplyDeleteBoom: They really should use a week zero to line up with the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, but hey, as long as I get my biscuits, I'm happy. I'll tell you what I'm not happy with: the Texans uniforms. If they had the guts to take back Columbia Blue from the team in Nashville, they'd be the Swami Super Bowl pick.
TJ: New uniforms worked for the Broncos and Patriots, didn't it? Well, the Texans have what appears to be a great corner duo, which might be all they need to neutralize the Vikings' main strength. If Jordan Addison is out, just double Justin Jefferson and call it a day. The Texans also have Black Dan Marino and an excellent receiver core. Giving the 49ers fits last week is one thing, but I have a hard time seeing the Vikings defense stopping them consistently, even without Joe Mixon. I think the Vikings got entirely too much shine from the first two weeks.
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Delete*clip of Deshaun Watson painfully grabbing hammy*
DeleteWork those muscles deep...
*clip of David Tepper throwing a drink into the crowd*
..."Tep" off your favorite refreshments...
*clip of Trent Baalke and Doug Pederson fist-fight*
...and get ready to rumble, because week 3? Week 4? Of NFL Priiimetime is getting really confused... NEXT!
Had to post in parts, because Blogpost silently eats your comment. It is apparently the first paragraph that I wasn't able to post, but I can't find what's offensive or malformed in it. Way to ruin the setup, Blogpost.
DeleteATTENTION! I am changing my Chargers pick due to the injury status of Justin Herbert. New picks below.
DeleteALL PLAY: Cowboys (+1) over Ravens
Miss State (+6) over Florida
Browns(-6.5) over Giants
Eagles (+3) over Saints
Chiefs (-3.5) over Falcons
ESSAY: Texans (-2) over Vikings
1. Jets -6
ReplyDelete2. Oklahoma +7
Delete3. AP: Ravens
4. Titans
DeleteEssay Ravens
This pick is really all about the face that I dont think the Ravens will go to 0-3. I cant imagine a world where they are basically out of the playoffs three weeks in. That would give too much hope for our Brownies. To think the division would be ours to take it is a thought that I cant wrap my brain around. I also think that Lamar will dominate the Dallas defense. They have been giving up a lot of points so I think that the Ravens will have no issue with taking advantage of that.
5. Atl (sent to Pete when I couldnt sign on to the website from a kids sporting event)
Delete6. Bills
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ReplyDeleteRavens +1 AP
ReplyDeleteUCLA +24.5 over LSU (I'll be there in the swampy 91 degrees)
Bucs -6.5 over Broncos
Jaguars 5.5 over Bills
Titans -2.5 over Packers
Essay: Browns -6.5 over Giants
Man, my picks have been a donkey's ass thus far. Maybe I turn it around this week. Was torn between Bucs and Browns, so I'll go with the Brownies for my essay. Jim Schwartz's defense eats alive QBs exactly like Daniel Jones. The G-Men have an elite LT in Andrew Thomas, but I fully expect Schwartz to use Myles like a Swiss army knife and rotate him over to the weaker linemen. These have traditionally been games that Stefanski and Co. take care of business, so I'm hoping that continues this week.
Nebraska -8.5
ReplyDeleteTampa -6.5
Buffalo -5.5
Arizona Cardinals +3
AP - Baltimore -1
Essay - Seattle -4.5 over Miami
I'm loving the Geno Smith Redemption Tour: Part 2. Geno has been written off so many times - he's a "bridge QB" (aren't all QB's bridge QB's in the end?), he can't carry a team, blah blah, throw out your own cliche. So far this year, he's a top 10 QB on an offense that is just warming up. Contrast Geno with the Dolphins' less-than-ideal QB situation (A QB named Skylar? Was his mom a Motley Crue fan?), coinciding with the shine fading on Mike McDaniels' genius. The rule change on pre-snap motion took away a huge advantage from McDaniels' playbook. The Tua injury was icing on the cake. Free fall incoming. Take the West Coast team here.
Nebraska -8.5 vs Illinois
ReplyDeleteBrowns -6.5 vs NY Giants
ND -28 vs Miami(OH)
Chargers +1.5 vs Steelers
AP Ravens -1 at Cowboys
EP: Falcons +3.5 vs Chiefs
In my head, I am telling myself a story that the NFL is seeing jokes about just how brazen and terrible the officiating is in support of the chiefs, perhaps they are aware of the narrative, so in this game, this week they will decide to make up for it, at least a little bit, in Atlanta where they decide to toss their pal Authur Blank plenty of home cooked flags, and nice win over the defending super bowl champions.
Atlanta stole won last week against the eagles, and that's gotta feel good. They look kind of fun and if some people on their defense can emerge, they'll be a enjoyable to watch, and you gotta like the positive pub about them drafting a QB to sit and learn while we watch these young QBs melt in real time.
Chargers +1.5 over Steelers
ReplyDeleteRavens -1 over Cowboys (AP)
Packers +1.5 over Titans
USC -6 over Michigan (Essay)
MSU +6.5 over Boston College
Colorado -1.5 over Baylor
Michigan starting an Orji when the Trojans arrive.....the jokes write themselves. But then again, everything about Michigan is a joke right now. I'm hearing Wolverine fans pining for Jason Candle. Not the way Sherrone Moore wanted to start his career as head ball coach. The problems are probably short-lived: he's got two bums at QB but a very talented one red-shirting (unless they decide to burn it), and he's got a couple bums at coordinator also. These are easily remedied and can probably be blamed a little bit on all the offseason turmoil, what with the cheating and Jim Harbaugh going back to the NFL and all that. But after all, how many fans say, "I don't care if we don't win for another decade as long as we get that one championship!" Turns out the fans really do care.
n.c.state +20.5
ReplyDeletecoastal carolina +3.5
ravens -1 all play
saints -3
bucs -6.5 (essay)
chiefs -3.5
this early in the season it's exciting to see strong teams emerge and so far the bucs qualify. their week 1 win in detroit was a statement. it would be understandable to expect the bucs to stutter after the brady/ariens success; however todd bowles may have found his winning fit after his jets experience.
Deletedenver's qb bo nix has four interceptions and zero touchdowns in his first two games. much like the patriots the broncos offense can't run and can't throw. the bucs defense has some key injuries this week (kancy & vea) but their offense is loaded. baker is healed, playing well and has chris godwin & mike evans. give me the bucs -6.5
hometeam
One point on the flying Illini +8.5 please (One of my old friends would call them that. I was never sure whether it was a joke and never asked).
ReplyDeletethat's what the 1988 basketball team with kendal gill, nick anderson, kenny battle, stephen bardo was called
DeleteAh that makes sense thank you!
DeleteMichigan +6
DeleteOklahoma +7
DeleteBrowns -6.5 over Giants
DeleteCowboys +1 over Ravens
Cards +3 over Lions***
***Almost want to POTY this because I can't think of another example of an NFL head coach needing to move into a different house in season because angry fans found out where he lived. Seems like a pretty big distraction! Also seems I shouldn't have to write anything else for this "essay" given the historically unprecedented nature of this angle but it also seems Brian Gannon might be a pretty good coach and now he's got Kyler healthy and a legitimately historic (like Randy Moss-level) talent in Marvin Harrison Jr. catching passes and it feels to me like these Cards could be substantially underbought at the moment and won't be so much after this weekend. Anyway, a lot of interesting games on this weekend's NFL slate and this is definitely one of them. Home dog in the desert for three points for Old Frowner thank you.
AP: Ravens -1
ReplyDeleteGeorgia Tech +10.5 (Essay)
Duke -14.5
BYU +6.5
Vikings +2
Dolphins +4.5
Ah, an ACC battle. By schools that are at least in the Eastern time zone. Next thing you know schools like California will join, might as well call it the PCC (and student-athletes will need to make long-haul cross country flights, taking away even more time from their studies). Georgia Tech is putting together a decent season and keeping competitive against peers. For Louisville we only know that they successfully dispatched a cupcake and a near-cupcake. These two teams are closely matched, maybe Louisville has a better defense. 10.5 is a good spot for the Yellow Jackets, worth the extra cheddars.
I had a good week last week, so of course this week I'm super busy and doing this fast to be done.
ReplyDeleteAP. Cowboys +1 v. Ravens
1. Ohio St. -40 v. Marshall
2. Miami -16.5 @ South Florida
3. Tennessee -7 @ Oklahoma
4. Falcons +3.5 v. Chiefs
E. USC -6 @ Michigan
Both of these teams have been tested in "big time" games this year, so this isn't new hat for either of them. The way the Wolverines play they need to get out to a lead and grind teams into the dirt. USC has a dynamic offense and an okay-at-best defense. If Michigan could get out to a lead, they could win a 14-10-type game. But I see no reason to believe that without 47 8th year seniors and all their opponents signals that that team up north can keep up with the upper third teams in the B1G TEN, let alone top 15 teams in the country. USC goes on the road to the Big House and houses the home team on CBS.
Real heater to start this year's contest.
ReplyDeleteEssay: Michigan. Back to the well with these clowns. It's likely Moore is terrible and this program may trend down but this is a buy low spot. Orji isn't going to fix anything - he's terrible that's why he wasn't starting to begin with, but the all new at the beginning of the season offensive line should improve over the course of the year. The defense has talent and USC is not Texas. If Michigan can run the ball a little bit, they will hang around in this one. Season on the line type of situation.
Rest tomorrow.
Others:
DeleteJags
Falcons
Cardinals
Panthers
All play: Ravens
Ragin’ Cajuns are undefeated going in to week 3 of the season? Green wave has lost 2 in a row? Reverse line movement? Sounds like the making of a great day. Per Don Best Ragin' Cajuns are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game, so obviously that is swaying most of the voters, or are they scared away by the Ragin' Cajuns being 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Maybe Louisiana is looking for revenge from their 95-0 loss in back in 1912? Anyway, it’s all fun speculation but I’m going with the reverse line movement plus Cheddar Thursday spread of Louisiana +3
ReplyDeleteOther votes Kansas +2.5
Akron +28.5
Georgia southern +36.5
Panthers +5
Ravens -1
Essay: Michigan +6 over USC
ReplyDeleteAs I see it, folks are a little too high on USC and a little too low on Michigan. Yes, Michigan couldn't get anything going against Texas, but Texas might be the best team in the country, and the Wolverines' offense has to be more dynamic with Alex Orji taking over at quarterback. And yes, USC upset LSU in week one, but LSU isn't exactly Georgia—Brian Kelly always underperforms in week one, and LSU was lucky to squeak by an average South Carolina team last week. I expect Michigan to run all over USC today, giving the Trojans their first "welcome to the Big Ten" moment of the season.
Ole Miss -36.5 over Georgia Southern
Ravens -1 over Cowboys
Chargers +1.5 over Steelers
Browns -6.5 over Giants
Eagles +3 over Saints
[cheddar picks are starred.]
ReplyDelete*1 AP boys +1 vs ravens
ohio +19.5 at uk
okst -2.5 vs uu
*2 fau +2.5 at uconn
*3 shsu -16.5 vs nmsu
toledo -2.5 at wku
scar -28.5 vs akron
gaso +36.5 at olemiss
*4 steelers -1.5 vs chargers
colts -1 vs bears
texans -2 at vikes
*5 saints -3 vs eagles
bucs -6.5 vs broncos
***6 bills -5.5 vs jags
if we learned anything from last week it is that when your offense features gabe davis as your qb's top weapon, you don't really have an offense. speaking of davis, this will be his homecoming from the team that knew him so well that they let him walk,,, even knowing stephon diggs was leaving. so on one hand, it's unlikely the jags will break 20 and the bills havent yet scored less than 30. same bills team that was top 5 in points scored and points allowed last year. at home. monday night. not overthinking it.
I will jump on the mini-bandwagon that is Toledo -2.5 this evening.
ReplyDeleteThe mini-bandwagon has crashed into a ditch. We continue undaunted on foot:
DeleteAll Play Ravens -1 over Cowboys
Cardinals +3 over Lions
Bucs -6.5 over Broncos
Saints -3 over Eagles
Essay Bills -5.5 over Jags -- This feels like a sucker bet but it just makes so much sense on paper, the way these things always do. The Jaguars have looked like a mess in less hospitable environs than Buffalo. Google reports encouragingly that Josh Allen "technically no longer has a left hand injury", which I guess is the best way to not have a left hand injury. Not sure I can countenance a Gabe Davis revenge narrative. Bills by at least a TD sounds horrifyingly plausible, the way these things always do.
KState -6.5 to BYU
ReplyDeleteNorthern Iowa + 8.5 to Hawaii
Rams +7 essay: it's going to be hard to get 100 words for this essay, since I am just taking the team that is playing against the injury bug. 9ers don't have CMC, Debo, or Kittle. I think the 9ers are perennial contenders, but I think with 89% of their offense out, I don't think Purdy can outsmart McVay.
DeleteRams likely lose, but I think they get a backdoor cover.
No Week 5 post yet but I’d like Army -12.5 over Temple please
ReplyDelete