Week 3: Bengals +6 at Chiefs (Sunday 4:25 PM)
First of all, here is this year's scoring spreadsheet. Please do check your own entries (and those of others if you feel so inclined) and point out errors in the comments. This week we are off to what is apparently now known as GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to witness a battle of two... no, wait, one 1-0 AFC powerhouse-in-waiting and a bunch of guys who just lost to the Patriots.
Here are the NCAA lines, including Kent State + a frankly generous 49.5 at Tennessee, and here are the rest of the NFL lines, including tonight's Bills +2.5 at Dolphins. Happy voting to all.
Dolphins -2.5 for a point.
ReplyDelete1. Bills +2.5
ReplyDelete2. forgot to post college
Delete3. AP: Chiefs
4.
5.
6. Essay: Browns (no written essay week)
4. Texans
Delete5. Eagles
Bills 2.5 for one
ReplyDeleteBills (W)
DeleteSouth Carolina 7 over LSU
Titans +4 over Jets
Chiefs -6 over Cinci AP
Giants 1.5 over Commandos
Essay: Colts -2.5 over Packers
This is a simple fade on Malik Willis, who cannot play at the NFL level. I was impressed last week with Indy's effort hanging against a very, very tough Texans team. Anthony Ricahrdson shook off some of the rust of having not played in nearly a year to put up a passable (if inconsistent) performance. I don't see this as a blowout necessarily, but sometimes you just have to fade a terrible QB.
Boom: Today on NFL Primetime, we open with a small PSA: our employers only prohibit bets involving the Jags. Fair enough. But what that means for America is we don't have any gag orders. For instance, I can talk all day about Kyle Shanahan being part of the rat family in more ways than one.
ReplyDeleteTJ: Yeah, Shanny did Jordan Mason dirty. Peyton also mentioned on Monday Night Football that Brock Purdy personally gave him intel on a big day for Mason. The NFL is full of open secrets.
Boom: And ESPN won't talk about any of them, so they can suck it from the back. Not the first time I've said that on air! That's what you call integrity. *straightens tie*
ALL PLAY: Bengals (+6) over Chiefs
Indiana (-3) over UCLA
Colts (-2.5) over Packers
Commies (-1.5) over Giants
Rams (+1) over Cardinals
ESSAY: Jets (-4) over Titans
TJ: Boom, do you want to bet on a bunch 0-1 teams?
Boom: Does Roger Goodell shit in the woods? Of course!
TJ: Week one is all about overreacting. And there's no bigger example than the Jets, who got ambushed with a 49er score to end the half and another after halftime, and the Titans, who looked dominant for a while as they are supposed to in Caleb Williams's first game. The Jets are a much better team than that, and the Titans are Not Good™. I only have to lay four? I'll take that all day.
Dolphins (-2.5) "Smart pick, dumbass"
ReplyDeleteColorado State (+7)
Baltimore (-8.5)
NYG (+1.5)
AP - Cincy (+6)
Essay - Minnesota (+5.5) over SF
Minnesota is a classic team where the offseason consensus pointed to a disappointing season, particularly after their rookie QB was lost to injury. Instead, the Vikings are a well-coached team (O'Connell has early Stefanski vibes) that is deep at premium spots and boast one of the league's better defenses. Further, Minnesota throttled the 49ers last year (winning by 5) - Brian Flores will have his defense ready to stifle the 49ers run game, regardless of who plays RB and I'm on board for the Sam Darnold redemption tour.
Missouri -16.5 over BC
ReplyDeleteMTSU +7 over WKU
Giants +1.5 over Commanders
DeleteRams +1 over Cardinals
Chiefs -6 over Bengals
Essay: Browns +3 over Jags
Kevin Stefanksi's Browns are incredibly successful off a loss—they almost never lose two in a row. It's hard to fathom them playing any worse than they did last week, and they need a win in the worst way. I expect this desperation to manifest in a Browns win today, with Watson's play much improved from his outing against the Cowboys. After watching last week's film, he'll get rid of the ball faster (or commit to running) much faster than he did last week. Joe Flacco's Browns handled this Jags team fairly easily nine months ago; today will be little more than a rerun, this time in Jacksonville.
CMU +18.5 vs Illinois
ReplyDeleteRavens -8.5 vs Raiders
Browns +3 vs Jags
Texans -6.5 vs Bears
AP: Bengals +6 at Chiefs
EP: Chargers -5.5 vs Panthers
Like a serpent, Harbaugh's team is going to visit Charlotte and inject its venom into a wounded panthers squad that is sputtering again worried about another wasted season after week 1. I think I read somewhere about a meeting between the owner and the HC this week? That sounds awful. On the other side, the Joe Alt cut ups from game one look really good, seems like they got a great tackle, and we are all rooting for JK Dobbins to do some damage after several back to back injuries to start his professional career, and he had a nice breakout game last week. With Herbert, it should be way too much for this Panthers team. Chargers have an OK defense right? Bosa and Mack right…will some of the home fans start to have bags over their heads at this game? Maybe!
so carolina +7
ReplyDeletebuffalo -3.5
ravens -8.5
lions -7.5
titans +4 (essay)
chiefs -6 ap
[submitting on behalf of hometeam]
Delete[essay is titans, not lions]
titans four point home dog. [thinking emoji] four point home dog after holding bears to 148 yards and collecting 3 turnovers? in chicago? dj moore 36 yds? dont care how bad the bears offense is, theyre not that bad. legit titans defense.
niners cracked 400 yds without mccaffery turning jordan mason into a folk hero? i dont care how much of a genius kyle shanahan is, theyre not that good. questions for the vaunted jets defense.
we love aaron rodgers but he does lean on his comfy wr. jennings, nelson, adams and it looks like lazard this year. and the titans have a good defense with coaches will have noticed that lazard is the weapon.
respectable home team versus a quasi-public team yields the 'please bet me' four point home dog. irresistible, thank you vegas, i accept your invitation.
Only college play is:
ReplyDeleteMissouri
Rest to come including essay.
AP: Chiefs -6
ReplyDeleteBuffalo -3.5
Tulane +13.5
Eastern Michigan -1.5
Houston +4.5 (Essay)
Chargers -4.5
Houston, we have a problem if we don’t win - depending on your sources, the Cougars haven’t started a season 0-3 since 2012. I think that was before I was pulled into the Cheddar fold, a time when life was simpler, long before I had to worry about essays. I’m not sold on Rice despite their blowout last weekend against a cupcake as they lost the previous week to a commuter school. Houston hasn’t had a great start albeit against quality opposition. Plus they’re at home for a rivalry game - a win by more than a FG, less than at TD should be no problem.
Typo - Houston -4.5, still my essay pick
Deleteap: chiefs -6 vs bengals
ReplyDelete-wazzu +4.5 at uw
-orst +16.5 vs uo
-olemiss -22.5 at wake
POTY-jags -3 vs browns
-steelers -2.5 at broncos
POTY. im jumping on the poty early as i think this is the last week there will be any uncertainty about where the browns are. delusion and excuses remained the rule after last week's embarrassing failure in front of a national audience and a house of fans wanting to believe while practices are still run with less urgency than a kennedy family thanksgiving touch football game. https://x.com/camijustice/status/1834301833424069101
'it's just one game!' 'stefanski has never gone 0-2.' 'it's a long season!' long season indeed. just as bird/parrish/mchale did not walk through that door for pitno's celtics, 2020 deshaun watson is not coming into the huddle (because 2020 deandre hopkins is not on this roster).
SOOO sick of hearing about the o-line injuries as though jed wills as ever been anything but a liability. not for nothing but geron christian was flacco's lt when he found amari for 250 whatever yards last year. speaking of amari cooper, widely known for outstanding routes, ie, being where he is supposed to be when he is supposed to be there, the biggest tell for me last week was watson throwing a five yd inside curl two yards behind cooper (who was wide open in space). to excuse that with a bland 'they just need time to develop chemistry'.. even though watson/cooper have been together 2+ years.. even though flacco figured out how to pass to cooper in their second game together.. indicates many browns fans/media have an agenda regarding watson that is not objective nor football-centric. this creates value. thus the poty.
is this the week jerome ford busts out and forces the defense to respect the browns' formidable off tackle plunge? no. takeaway the primary security blanket from watson as he flees the pocket early and while jordan akins might be a sleeper option for your fantasy team, no njoku means the browns offense could actually be worse. the only worry is that after the game is wrapped watson/stefanski will go into stat padding mode so backdoor cover is a concern.
Great essay
DeleteOn behalf of Residue Dogs, who is having technical difficulties:
ReplyDeleteIllinois
Tennessee
Chiefs
Ravens
Jets
Colorado St (essay skip)
For clarity sake I think he’s voting for Todd Helton Tennessee not the former Oilers
DeleteGive me an SEC three play: Bama, A&M, Vols
ReplyDeleteBucs
DeleteChiefs
Jags essay
This feels hacky and maybe an overreaction to last week's brutal home opener, but with David Njoku out, we have to wonder where the Browns will generate offense. Deshaun recriminations are not useful at the moment. He didn't have much time to throw against Dallas with backup tackles, but this is the NFL, and we are all still very much waiting for the guy worth $230 mil guaranteed to arrive. Jacksonville can rush the passer too, Brownies are on the road, a key to the passing game is out--woof. There is no respect for the run game right now, and I expect the Jags to come after the QB early and often as the Cowboys did. The net result of that last week was that Watson often missed open receivers and could not move up in the pocket.
Anything can happen on any given Sunday but a win would surprise me greatly and I'm thinking the Jags probably win by a TD.
1. Buccaneers +7.5 @ Lions
ReplyDelete2. Patriots +3.5 v. Seahawks
3. Browns +3 @ Jaguars: Either the Browns win or the Faustian bargain with #4 is over. Win-win.
4. Saints +6.5 @ Cowboys
5. Washington +4.5 @ Washington St.
E/AP. Bengals +6 @ Chiefs
Words coming because I'm not typing an essay from my phone.
Back with some words for you people! Wait, that's not what I meant. Anyway...
Delete0-1 v. 1-0 is one of the best spots in the league. Cincy has played very well against KC in recent years and I know past results do not predict future events, but it is a data point. Andy Reid is a very good coach who knows he has a decent chance of facing Cincy when it counts later, so going all out for regular season win they don't really need is very much out of his wheel house.
So a desperate Bengals team that plays well against the Chiefs in a bad-ish spot for the home team. I'll take those points for the essay all-play.
See you next week.
Bama -16.5 to Wisconsin
ReplyDeleteMissouri -16.5 to Boston College
Purdue +10 to Notre Dame
Texas -35.5 to UTSA
Chiefs -6 to bengals
DeleteBears +6.5 to Texans -essay
Bears essay:
DeleteThe QB play can’t be worse than last week? Riiiight? Rookie qb - simplify the game- slow it down- get a few completions… dunks, screens, you know- maybe he goes 7 for 13 in the first half …
CJ stroud is going to have a very average 2nd year- and against our DEFENSE I think he makes two mistakes- which creates a cover for the bears. Let’s go!
Wash st +4.5
ReplyDeleteWash st vs U of Wash is set to play their 111th game against each other. Their first game was 124 years ago when Wash State was known as the Agricultural College, Experiment Station and School of Science of the State of Washington, and ended in a 5-5 tie, which is a weird score. I’ve yet to find another major school game with that final score. Anyway this Apple Cup is set to be a fun matchup with a spread that is a lot smaller than past games. Historic line spread and line movement favors Wash st so I’m going to go with the odds and against the Vegas betting trend today.
DeleteUtah St +18.5
DeleteCalifornia -18.5
DeletePatriots+ 3.5, Cardinals -1, Bengals +6
DeleteCIVIL WAR VOTE/VOTE OF THE WEEK: One day I'll be able to put into words how much I hate that USC and Oregon are in the B1G but for now I'll just say that it seems to represent the worst of everything that's bad right now. On top of that, 16.5 now up to 17.5 IRL looks like a crazy spread given the way the Ducks and Beavs have started, especially in this rivalry game and with the Beavs playing at home. Beavs hanging neck and neck with Wazzu for the PAC-12 crown. Will take the points today for my vote of the week.
ReplyDeleteMight as well make it a PAC Twelve Two Pack with my Cougars +4.5 as well.
DeleteBrowns +3, Lions -7.5, Broncos +2.5, and Chiefs +6 to round out my slate
DeleteSorry please switch out Lions for Pats +3.5. Thanks.
DeleteIt's way early in the year for the Civil War and in fact I have missed the pick. My college pick is Georgia -23.5 over Kentucky.
ReplyDeleteEssay Colts -2.5 over Packers -- as per Ben above this is a bad QB situation for Green Bay, plain and simple. On the other side it's certainly not impossible for Anthony Richardson to go to pieces either but the ever-present potential for something like last week's absurd 60-air-yard TD makes this seem like a pretty reasonable number for a generally competent-looking Colts team.
DeleteAlso Chiefs -6 over Bengals
DeleteBucs +7.5 over Lions
Chargers -5.5 over Panthers
Ravens -8.5 over Raiders