Week 2: Cowboys +2.5 at Browns
For our first regular week of the 2023-24 regular season we're where else but in Cleveland for Sunday's game of the week between the Cowboys (+2.5) and the Browns, this week's most compelling American football matchup by any objective measure (but please note that the Exec. Comm. typically chooses a Saturday, Sunday, or Monday game for the All Play to ensure all receive proper notice, and prefers a nationally televised matchup whenever practicable).
The rest of the NFL lines are here, and the NCAA lines are here. The Exec. Comm. expresses its appreciation and gratitude for the fine opening weekend showing by all participants and wishes all a happy football voting weekend as always.
Louisville -30.5
ReplyDeleteBuffalo -6.5
Indy +3
Seattle -6.5
AP - Dallas +2.5
Essay - LA Rams +3.5 over Detroit
That pic of Jimmy and Jerry could shape a Ph.D thesis titled "End Stage Capitalism." The amount of arrogance, pride, low self-esteem and greed these two men emanate is staggering. But - it's America and it's football, and at least Haslam has learned to shut up and just spend money. I hate picking for or against my Browns, but I think their vaunted defense made a name preying on bad QB's last year. Sunday they play a pretty good one - and one that is looking to get paid.
As for my essay, I'll take the Rams with points in what should be a close game between two expertly coached teams. Even though Aaron Donald retired, I'm high on the Rams. When healthy, Matthew Stafford is a top 5 QB and the Rams' rushing attack could be one of the league's best. I love Detroit's story and they are a talented team, but I'm always wary of too much hype going into a season (the Texans are a similar case). Look for a failed 4th down try to decide it.
Boom: Welcome to NFL Primetime, Chris Berman, Tom Jackson. All eyes are on this wonderful Jacksonville household now as we take a firm lead. *motions to kitchen* Top me off with a little Chardonnay, will ya?
ReplyDeleteTJ: Did we actually take the lead in anything? It's too early in the season to celebrate with wine.
Boom: I am the pure id of this operation. Wine flies when you're having fun!
ALL PLAY: Cowboys (+2.5) over Browns
Texas (-7.5) over Michigan
Oklahoma State (-7.5) over Arkansas
Seahawks (-6) over Broncos
Commies (+3.5) over Bucs
ESSAY: Lions (-3.5) over Rams
Boom: What is this wine in a box nonsense? Teej, bring my spirits back up.
TJ: I can do that with four words. The NFL is back, and I know how badly you want to believe in a revenge narrative.
Boom: Uh, listen, eegh, it's a - and we've seen this many times - it's a proud Swami tradition to, as they say, stir the pot. I want the angry version of Jared "Mini" Goff!
TJ: They're over it. Stafford got a ring -
Boom: the Rams got a Stafford infection, yes, go on -
TJ: and Goff got an extension and all the validation in the world from last year's play. The truth is the Lions are just a better team, and the Rams are going to really miss Aaron Donald. Watch out for Jaymo to make a bigger splash than anyone thinks, and for that Lions defense to be improved.
Browns -2.5 over Cowboys
ReplyDeleteLions -3.5 over Rams
Ravens +3 over Chiefs
Texas -7.5 over Michigan
Pitt +2.5 over Cincinnati
Falcons -3.5 over Steelers
Today's essay is, who else but, the Lions. Dan Campbell continues to keep the league guessing. First move? 8-part Applebee's commercial campaign. He's reviving the casual dining chain the way he revived Jared Goff's career.
DeleteThe Lions are laser-focused on the Super Bowl the way few others have ever been. Problems in the secondary? Let's trade a 3rd round pick for a vet. And use a 1st round pick. And the 2nd round pick. HOF-caliber talent up for contracts in 2 years? Getting that out of the way now. Need some emotional support on the sideline? We're handing the clipboard to Champion of Life. Even got a new kicker from the UFL. No stone left unturned, all contingencies accounted for.
The Rams on the other hand are trying another year of keeping Stafford in one piece and are without Aaron Donald. Last year in the playoffs the fans rattled Stafford by mercilessly booing his kids and making his wife mad. Well, his wife is always mad. I'm laying three and the hook with confidence.
Week 2: Ravens +3 over Chiefs, 9/5/2024
ReplyDeleteLet me get this out of the way early this week and repurpose a post I made after last year's AFC Championship game: It was one of the biggest frauds the league has ever pulled, having assigned the game to officiating crew-chief Shawn Smith, who's somehow still allowed to be an NFL official despite the extremely anomalous record his crew has accumulated calling games in favor of road teams.
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/chiefs-ravens-shawn-smith-referee-trends-impact/
Smith's crew, true to form, proceeded to flag the Ravens for more than three-times the penalty yards as the Chiefs in Baltimore while giving KC carte blanche to manhandle the home team. KC escaped with a one-score win, the NFL got Taylor Swift and its most marketable QB in the Super Bowl, and countless sock-puppets got to bloviate about how a historically good Ravens team and their black QB "lost their cool" and "couldn't make plays" when they needed to. Also, of course, "only losers complain about the refs." So a Chiefs team that was hardly better than mediocre throughout the regular season and was substantially less talented than the Ravens on both sides of the ball, playing in front of an extremely raucous Baltimore crowd, somehow "turned it on in the playoffs" with that "Mahomes magic" again. All a fine reminder that sane people should not become too invested in this spectacle and that there should be a congressional investigation into the NFL and its manipulation of game results via corrupt officiating. It wouldn't be that hard to restore some decency to this beloved national institution and pastime, yet there is no sign of that happening anytime soon.
Anyway, no need to pull any strings tonight. It's only week 1. Ravens and the points for Old Frowner's Vote of the Week.
I guess they wanted to pull the strings anyway! Cripes!
DeleteYikes I didn't realize the Duke's Mayo Classic was this weekend! Give me my Wolfpack +7.5 over the Vols and also Coach Prime +7.5 in Nebraska!
DeleteOff to a heck of a start here!
DeleteColts (+3) and BROWNS today thx.
Lions -3.5 as well.
DeleteKC for a single
ReplyDeleteND -28.5 v. NIU
DeleteCuse +3 v. GT
Nebraska -7.5
DeleteLoins
DeleteBrowns essay TK
So for my Browns essay: this is a mix of homerism enthusiasm for a new season coupled with the fact that the Cowboys are a bit overrated and I don’t really care about the QB advantage. The Browns defense will be just as stout at home as last year. This is the epitome of put up or shut up for the Browns’ quarter billion dollar signal caller, but I’m choosing to believe that he’s healthy and ready to get his career restarted. I don’t think the offense will be a thing of beauty, but I do think this team continues to grit out victories while they await Nick Chubb’s hopefully triumphant return. Browns are not going to be denied in this beautiful home opener.
Deletechiefs -3
ReplyDeletebengals -8 essay
browns -2.5
jets +4
college picks & essay to follow
1. Ravens +3
ReplyDelete2. AP: Cowboys +2.5
Delete3. OSU-38.5
4. Carolina +4
5. Essay: NYJ +4
Give me some A. Rodgers on his return from injury. Back in primetime..its almost like deja vue. Hopefully this start goes better than the first time we anticipated his Jets debut. I've been watching Receivers on Netflix and Davante's love for Rodgers really has motivated me to back him here as well. I don't care if he is 40. When I watch him I have full confidence in his ability to run an efficient offense. As long as A. Rodgers can put some points on the board the Jet's defense should be able to make this a winnable game. I think everyone looks to the powerful offense of the 49ers and just think they will win every game. Not so fast my friend. I think the Jets take this one in a shocker for everyone to talk about on Monday. Cant wait to here what McAfee will have to stay.
Delete6. Lions -3.5
DeleteRavens +3
ReplyDeleteDolphins -3.5 essay
DeleteThe NFL has an interesting new format to kickoffs that are supposed to make the game more interesting while decreasing morbidity. The advantage in the short term will be to teams who already had a kick returner who actual returned kicks. There are several returners who only had 1 fair catch last year but most of those didn’t actually play the position often. Braxton Berrios, however, had only 1 fair catch but also had the 3rd most return yards in the league and was 9th in yards/return average. Given that combo it seems the Dolphins had an automatic advantage, for at least 1 play of the game. On a side note, nobody is talking about how the rule change eliminates the possibility of fair catch kicks. The Wikipedia entry on fair catch kicks doesn’t even mention that it is not an option in the NFL anymore. My only hope is to see a fair catch kick at a high school football game.
Other votes
U Mass +18.5 vs Toledo
Cincinnati-2.5 vs Pitt
Broncos +6 v Seahawks
Cowboys +2.5
Browns -2.5 AP
ReplyDeleteTexas -7.5 over UM
Texas (W)
DeleteBrowns -2.5 AP
Jaguars 3.5 over Miami
Falcons -3.5 over Pittsburgh
Bills -6.5 over Cardinals
Essay: Seahawks -6 over Denver
Week 1 NFL season is always a fun challenge. So many of these teams are complete unknowns. What I do know is that Seattle just hired a brilliant defensive mind who somehow led the Ravens to a league leading sack total last year, with their best pass rushers Jadeveon Clowney and the ghost of Kyle Van Noy. Seattle’s D was abysmal on third downs last year, and I’m sure that’s been a point of emphasis. Meanwhile, we have 37 year old rookie Bo Nix making his first start in a hostile environment. I don’t think Denver’s D can hold up against an underrated Seahawks offense. Gimme the ‘Hawks.
Northwestern -2.5
ReplyDeleteEagles -2
Michigan +7.5
Colts +3
Seahawks -6 (essay)
Browns -2.5 (all play)
I'm betting against the rookie QB here playing in a hostile environment.
DeleteI also think that I look at the RB room- Kenny Walker/Charbonnet and then WR core- Metcalf, Lockett, and JSN and I am like- they have to score 3 TDs right? and Denver can't score more than 13 points? right? riiiiiight?
Essay: Michigan
ReplyDeleteMichigan looked like complete garbage in Week 1. Weak line play, shaky quarterback play, no receivers. They struggled to put away Fresno St at home. Meanwhile Texas looked like a juggernaut pounding Colorado St. into the ground. Do those results really matter? Michigan defense should be excellent. Gameplan will likely be conservative and designed to keep the game within striking distance for as long as possible. On the flip side, when was Texas last properly rated? Why is everyone running to lay a TD with Sark here. How did this open 5.5? Was that number that bad? With the entire world on Texas, I'll take a stab with the Wolverines to make this a competitive contest and potentially win it outright.
Others:
North Carolina St.
Oregon
Jaguars
Raiders
All Play Browns
well i know I'm going to see capGG at one or two tailgates at burke airport, and if we can't talk cheddar b/c i'm not playing then that's a problem. also i found myself saying things this week like, BROWNS LIONS SUPER BOWL. and THE CHIEFS will get holding calls in this years playoffs!!!!
ReplyDeleteIllinois +5.5 vs Kansas
Penn St -35.5 vs Bowling Green
49ers -4 vs Jets
Browns-2.5 vs Boys
Giants +1.5 vs Vikings
Bears -4 vs Titans****
Can you imagine watching your GM trade away an ascending WR1 in year three of his rookie deal, then go watch him help bring that team a super bowl. I got lost in a NFL Reddit thread yesterday and found some pour titan fans still stuck in the abject horror of seeing a franchise set itself back 10 years with a move that like. Vbrabel left the team a few years later and now is back home running sprints with David Njoku. That AJ Browns trade killed the franchise and the owner knows it so she reset the org to buy a few more years.
How helpful is Mr. Vrabel for the browns this year as an assistant coach? That's worth like two wins right?
Anyway, Tennessee is my third favorite NFL team behind the browns and the bears. They have NOTHING going on. I can't name a single player on their roster. The BEARS have everything going on including continuity, they will be fun to watch.
And if you don't have tickets yet, reach out. I've got a significant amount of inventory remaining still.
DeleteSingle on
ReplyDelete1. Syracuse +3 v. Georgia Tech
More to come, but tailgate prep for tomorrow comes first.
2. Auburn -13.5 v. Cal
DeleteAnd now the rest of the story!
Delete3. Ohio St. -38.5 v. Western Michigan
4. Oregon -19.5 v. Boise St.
5. Rams +3.5 @ Lions
E. Browns -2.5 v. Cowboys
This ain't Texas. Both Left Tackles gonna have to hold 'em!
Myles & Micah versus a rookie and a either James Hudson or a guy who hasn't played a full game at left since college. Not gonna be a great day to be a QB. I just hope the officials come ready to be consistent.
Neither starting QB played during the preseason. The entire Dallas team, it seems, was holding out. The Browns had a ton of injuries. There is no guess as to what to expect in this one.
Bottom line, Dallas won't be able to run the ball at all. A one dimensional team is dead to rights against the Browns D. ur Brownies need to get out to an early lead, traditionally a thing that Stefanski teams do. Also, the Browns have quietly and the fans loudly, turned Cleveland Browns Stadium (I'm not cashing a check to call it something else, but I'm willing to do so) into real home field advantage.
So week 1 in Cleveland, another Browns opener win!
Also, if anyone needs a tailgate tomorrow, find me at Burke. We'll be directly in front of the main airport doors in the grassy area on the east end of the lot.
LFG!
Deleteso carolina +10
ReplyDeletetoledo -18.5
essay:
the most repeated insult at the tom brady roast was that foxborough high could beat the patriots. well it's no longer a joke nor is it funny. this team blows. hc jerrod mayo and not capable of the job. the coaching staff is entirely new and also incompetent. oc alex van pelt? not enough. poor jacoby brisett is going to get hurt at best, potentially really hurt. career ending. there is no nfl caliber player on the front line. local sports media laugh at mike gesicki at tight end but he could have career numbers against the patriots over rated, soft defense. maybe cincinnati has internal drama w ja'marr chase but general joe burrow will find targets. hc zac taylor has proven he can guide a team and they need to shake off their first game fail legacy.
give me the bengals -8
AP: Cowboys +2.5
ReplyDeleteTulane +9.5
Arkansas +7.5
Illinois +5.5
Appalachian St +17
Crap, my post didn’t go through last night. I was all excited for my 12 PM NCAAF picks then had to make multiple trips to Lowe’s for what should have been a simple home project. I’ll be a grown up and make two more picks.
UTSA +1.5
Nevada +1.5
Broncos +6 (Essay)
NFL week 1 is usually a crapshoot for the teams that are rebuilding and / or making key changes. I think Seattle has seen the best that Geno Smith will bring, and is at best a caretaker until they draft or sign a franchise QB. It’s hard to tell what their direction is - are they still relying on their intimidating home stadium to get them a couple of extra wins each year? They still have a few holdover players from previous eras. The Broncos look good coming out of the preseason. They’re ready to move on from the Russell Wilson experiment. From what I know of Bo Nix I don’t see an implosion or deer in headlights debut. I don’t see this one as a rout, so I’ll go with three Cheddars on the Broncos.
It’s a week of all underdog picks… and it’s a Russell Wilson Exes Bowl.
double crap... the strikethrough formatting didn't transfer from google Docs where I compose my post. Picks should be:
DeleteAP: Cowboys +2.5
Illinois +5.5
Appalachian St +17
UTSA +1.5
Nevada +1.5
Broncos +6 (Essay)
Of all of this week's essays this is the boldest!
DeleteThanks, it was a lot of work for a push
DeleteOSU -38.5 over WMU
ReplyDeleteGiants +1.5 over Vikings
Colts +3 over Texans
Titans +4 over Bears
Chargers -3 over Raiders
Essay: Cowboys +2.5 over Browns
Deshaun Watson is notorious for getting off to slow starts—both in games and in seasons. While I'd love for things to be different this year, the evidence suggests that Browns fans will be subjected to more "rust" talk this September as Watson continues searching for his 2019-2020 form. That evidence: Watson hasn't played since early November 2023; he was limited at times in training camp with "general arm soreness"; Kevin Stefanski pulled the plug on playing Watson in the Browns' preseason finale for not-entirely-clear reasons; the Browns will be unveiling a new offense under new OC Ken Dorsey; and, most horrifyingly, James Hudson may be starting at OT against Micah Parsons. For all of those reasons, I'll be surprised if the Browns cover the spread tomorrow.
College pick: the Chip Kelly-augmented OSU offense -all of the points
ReplyDeleteAll Play Cowboys +2.5 over Browns
DeleteDolphins -3.5 over Jaguars
Titans +4 over Bears
Broncos +6 over Seahawks
Essay Lions -3.5 over Rams -- Too late to essay an early game and not ready to bet the farm on Nix or Daniels today, going chalk with the most optimistic Lions team I can ever remember seeing (SB predictions! Minimal quarterback angst! Mediagenic coach!) Extra half point does give me pause but I guess the idea is there are going to be plenty of points to go around. The Rams are going to have to sling it and I'm not sure how much Stafford has left in the tank.
wazzu -2.5 vs ttu
ReplyDeletenmsu +22.5 vs liberty
vikes -1.5 at giants
titans +4 at bears
bengals -8 vs pats
***boys +2.5 at browns
dang missed last week. but we're back now and just in time for the rust show at the excuse factory.
imagine being so concerned about your qb's fragility that you dont play him in preseason and are so fearful of your fans that you dont sign the 39 yr old qb who succeeded in the same system last year.
2023: 6 games with an avg 200 yds per.
2022: 6 games; avg under 200.
2021: 0 games
so we're a solid 4 years out since he played 16 games yielding only two games of under 250 yds. and as painful as his performance on the field has been, and as dull/uninterested as his rare interviews are,, the worst is the rampant apologiae from browns diehards.
my worry in essaying this is the browns defense might score three TDs. but then i remember our offensive genius head coach and the 'system' he's 'installed' for the 'athletic' qb: which translates to run-pass options that dont allow for the qb to run and way too much jerome ford.
ill be tuned in and if im wrong youre all welcome to come down my street. but if im right, the Berea excuse factory will be in full swing.