2024-25 Cheddar Bay Reality Football Opening Weekends Thread
It's B1G 2024 in B1G America and the FIFTEENTH annual season of the world's realest reality football contest with a weekly writing requirement is upon us.
Once again we're calling the first two weekends of the amateur football season the first round of the Cheddar season and keep it at a half-points "week" per custom. Which is to say pick SIX games for the two weekends between Saturday 8/24 through Monday 9/2 for Cheddar Week 1, including ONE essay, and we'll count them as half points for that round, meaning 0.5 points per ordinary pick and 1.5 for the essay. Week 2 and ordinary scoring picks back up for the week of 9/3 through 9/9, including that weekend's opening games.
The point spreads for this opening round are here. Also, there is NO ALL PLAY for this round. To enter the contest all you need to do is start posting your picks (you may post them piecemeal as the week progresses, but please at least post them within the same thread of comments), and otherwise take note of the rules, which are the same as always:
The point spreads for this opening round are here. Also, there is NO ALL PLAY for this round. To enter the contest all you need to do is start posting your picks (you may post them piecemeal as the week progresses, but please at least post them within the same thread of comments), and otherwise take note of the rules, which are the same as always:
1. Pick SIX games per weekend, with the week typically running Tuesday through Monday unless otherwise announced in the weekly thread;
2. The SIX picks must include the weekly all play, and must, with all play included, include at least one NCAA game and at least one NFL game (in other words, if the All Play is an NFL game you can pick that one and five NCAA games and you'll be fine, and/or vice versa);
3. The picks are typically one point per pick, but each week you get one "pick of the week," which must be accompanied by a weekly essay -- of about 100 words, subject to the Executive Committee's discretion -- about why you are making the essay vote. The essays should be at least somewhat thoughtful and made with intent to spark thought, community engagement, fellowship, and bonhomie, and should also be grounded in the founding principle of this contest: That no one should wager a dime on a football game unless they can compose about 100 words of coherent thought about why. The Exec. Comm. will allow one "essay skip" week. More than one skipped essay will cost chances at weekly prizes (which has happened like once) and more than two skipped essays may, in the Exec. Comm.'s discretion, result in disqualification from the contest (which in fourteen years and counting has never happened).
4. Additionally, each contestant gets to make one PLAY OF THE YEAR, that is worth double the normal essay, so six points, which will count as your "pick of the week" for the week you make it (meaning that the Play of the Year will also be your pick of the week the week you make it.
4. Additionally, each contestant gets to make one PLAY OF THE YEAR, that is worth double the normal essay, so six points, which will count as your "pick of the week" for the week you make it (meaning that the Play of the Year will also be your pick of the week the week you make it.
5. Once we know how many are in the contest this year the Exec. Comm. will announce how many will make the playoffs, which begin no later than the start of the NFL playoffs and sometimes also includes some final week NFL regular season games, TBD depending on how the college bowl season and NFL playoffs intersect, but it's typically between 25 to 30% of the field. The contest is heavily weighted toward picking the playoffs correctly and increasingly as the championship games approach.
6. Starting at week 12 of the regular season, weekly prizes will be awarded to the week's top scorer(s) to keep the essays
6. Starting at week 12 of the regular season, weekly prizes will be awarded to the week's top scorer(s) to keep the essays
7. The fee is $110 per entry (paypal to your old pal old frowner, email for payment details if you are lacking them), to be submitted upon your submission of your first round of picks. This year the kitty will be divided 80% to the champ, 20% to the weekly prizes. Second place is first loser.
8. All rules and interpretations of same are subject to the Executive Committee's discretion which to date has never been abused.
8. All rules and interpretations of same are subject to the Executive Committee's discretion which to date has never been abused.
Newcomers are welcome as always (may the gods help them (as they in fact did last season wherein newcomer, "Fantasy Ponzi Scheme" was the champion of this esteemed contest)), the Exec. Comm. will address any questions or concerns in the comments, and as always we are wishing the best to all in the upcoming football voting season here on old Cheddar Bay!
*Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER and/or review the important Public Service Announcement posted here*
*Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER and/or review the important Public Service Announcement posted here*
Historically, I have never passed on the opportunity to back Georgia Tech getting more than 10 points in Dublin Ireland and I don't intend to start now. Will start off the 2024-25 season with the Yellow Jackets plus 10.5 over FSU for a single.
ReplyDelete(For newcomers now you see how easy it is ...).
I should have just essayed GT last weekend because it really feels like we're wading into the shark tank with this slate. Though I suppose that's every season which is why this round is only half-points and why I won't overthink things this week as much as Notre Dame getting 3 points in godforsaken College Station TX feels like a bit of a trap. Been listening to a podcast about Liberia and learned that a US Army Colonel named Robert Gosney, who was involved in orchestrating a series of bloody coups there to help ensure that the African nation remained colonized by US interests, played football for A&M. Sounds about right. Still can't believe they gave Jimbo Fisher a $75M contract. A program with the rich traditions and history and present good vibes of this Notre Dame unit taking an L down in that dark place would make for a foreboding start to this college football season and I shall simply stand against it.
DeleteIrish +3 over Aggies for my Vote of the Week, and will round out my slate with Clemson +13.5 over UGA, Florida +2.5 over Mia, LSU -4.5 over USC, and Boston College +21.5 over FSU.
Hope everyone has a great holiday weekend!
Boom: Welcome to NFL Priiiimetime! I'm Chris Berman, and it's our pleasure to preview this year's football games - for a national audience again. Buck and Troy may have been a little too rich for this Jacksonville household, but they can afford me and Thomas Louie Jackson, FROM!?
ReplyDeleteBOTH: Louisville!
Boom: That's right. Listen, I can live off seven-layer dip and turkey trimmings for many football weekends to come. *pats stomach*
TJ: Speak for yourself, Boom. They had to pull me out of retirement somehow.
Boom: *pulls out contract and reading glasses*
Oklahoma State (-9.5) over South Dakota State
Miami (-2.5) over Florida
Miami OH (+4.5) over Northwestern
Ole Miss (-42.5) over Furman
Georgia State (+20.5) over Georgia Tech
ESSAY: Western Michigan (+23.5) over Wisconsin
Boom: We've been known to dabble in college football every now and then; expect a little more this year, even if it's not our forte. But hey, defending a championship in *looks through glasses* Cheddar Bay biscuits? That just makes me hungrier. Serve up that buttery biscuit!
TJ: Boom, I like Western Michigan to cover and possibly upset the Badgers in their own stadium. That Bronco defense has a ton of upperclassmen, and I really like their offensive line. Lots of continuity at every position for an improving team and a strong bowl game contender. Here's the other part of the recipe for a cover: they face a great defense but a terrible offense with a brand new QB.
Boom: That's quarterback Tyler "Dick" Van Dyke, FROM!?
TJ: I'm confused. You mean the college he transferred from, or the one he's playing for right n...
Boom: *deep voice* Wis-caahhn-sin
Ponzi was locked and loaded. Love it.
DeleteAre FBS vs FCS games playable?
ReplyDeleteWhatever is on the sheet is playable!
DeleteStanford +8.5
ReplyDeleteWVU +8.5
Florida +2.5
Northwestern -4.5
Michigan State -11.5
Essay - Rutgers -34.5 over Howard
It's great to have Cheddar back in our lives. Thanks for all those who run this fantastic contest.
The college season snuck up on me, so I decided to Deshaun my way out of Week Zero (Gotta be fresh for the regular season). I have no clue on any of these games, so I'll go with some home dogs and make my big play Rutgers to run it up on Howard. Rutgers is a Junior and Senior-heavy team ready to break through into the upper half of the Big 18. They resemble an actual college football program, rather than a collective of athletes - seemingly a rare thing these days. While Greg Schiano's win-loss record isn't stellar, he's one of the best asshole coach and leaders out there and more importantly, he's a team builder. I don't see why this Rutgers' squad can't squeak out 7 or 8 wins.
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ReplyDelete1. MSU -11.5
ReplyDelete2. Fresno +21.5
3. USC +4.5
4. ND +3
5. Clemson +13.5
6. Akron +49.5 (essay to come)
I can't believe football season is amongst us! That being said I have no clue what to pick this week so I decided to just bet the games I know will be nationally televised. This will add some entertainment to my day! However, I know its a terrible strategy to bet all the games every joe blow will bet on as well but thats how Im feeling this week!
DeleteIm taking Akron and the points for my week one essay. As an OSU alum Ive been to plenty of these games. OSU kills Akron but just doesn't quite want to beat them by 50+. I do feel like there is some in state respect to the other programs. The overall goal seems to be that everyone gets some money and everyone gets out healthy. This will be the 5th time the Buckeyes have played Akron and all but one game stayed under the 50 point spread line. The only way to make half of the Buckeyes games worth watching is to bet against the spread. Here's to a Buckeye win and an Akron cover!
Welcome back!
DeleteVandy 13.5 over VT
ReplyDeleteOhio 17.5 over Syracuse
Colorado State 33.5 over Texas
Miami (OH) 4.5 over Northwestern
LSU over USC
DeleteEssay: ND +3 over TAMU
This pick is based solely on the fact that the junior senator from Texas, Rafael “Ted” Cruz, will be making an appearance at the game. Like other Texas residents, I am keenly aware of the radioactive effect this guy has on all Texas teams on whose behalf he makes his bloviating appearance. Astros, Rangers, Texas Longhorns—you name it, Cruz has ruined it. Let’s go Irish.
Never in doubt
Delete1. Wisconsin -23.5 v. Western Michigan
ReplyDelete2. Maryland -20.5 v. UConn
3. Penn State -8.5 v. West Virginia
4. Nebraska -27.5 v. UTEP
5. Georgia -13.5 v. Clemson
E. Georgia State +20.5 v. Georgia Tech
The theme of the post is the B1G of America. So I'm picking a bunch of B1G games. But I can't make it my essay this week. The essay will be fading Georgia Tech following their big upset win in Dublin. This is a perfect let down spot. Travel from the beautiful emerald isle off the big win against a team that "should have been in the tournament last season". Get a sold, annoying in-state team coming in. This is the spot where Georgia Tech is listless and struggles to a 10-point win, if not an upset loss of their own.
Good to be back.
michigan st -11.5
ReplyDeletetcu -8.5
kent st +24.5
clemson +13.5
oklahoma st. -9.5
east michigan +1.5 essay to follow
hometeam
West Virginia
ReplyDeleteMiami, FL
Miami, OH
Hawaii
Georgia St.
Essay: Boston College - I've got a mysterious illness (this is not a joke I have one) and it comes with lots of brain fog. As such, I can't really think deeply about anything, including sports. Is that for the better? Perhaps. Since I have a poorly functioning brain, there will be no actual money wagering for me this year, but I'm here for this. Why BC? Well, FSU lost and now the sharp move is to lay this big number because they are due to bOunCe BAcK. Problem is, they've got DJU and while you can take the QB out of the Clemson offense apparently you can't take the Clemson offense out of the QB. Seems a tall number with that sort of setup, plus the travel back from Ireland.
We’re back for another shot at glory.
ReplyDeletePenn State -8.5 (essay)
Vanderbilt +13.5
Syracuse -17.5
James Madison -7.5
Fresno St. +21.5
Arizona State -6.5
Greetings one and all from the beaches of Delaware. Who knew that the First State had sandy, not terribly overcrowded beaches not ridiculously far from four metro areas? Plus tax free shopping and all the Joe Biden merch one could possibly want.
Big things are expected from Penn State this year, like every year. Reports are that their QB came back lighter and ready to move and they have their go-to receiver coming back. Morgantown is not the easiest place to win as a visitor, and tbh I wish I’d considered WVU for undergrad because it looks fun. Nonetheless WVU the past couple of seasons have played themselves down to definitely being a second tier team rather than one that can dine at the adults table. Look for Penn State to start their Big Ten chase with a solid win.
Wisconsin is not looking good against Western Michigan… I should have returned from the beach sooner and taken the 23.5 points.
Georgia -13.5 over Clemson (essay)
ReplyDeleteIllinois state +23.5 to Iowa
Hawaii +12.5 to ucla
Notre Dame +3 to Tex A&M
Southern Illinois +16.5 to BYU
LSU -4.5 to USC
Georgia -13.5
DeleteNew year. same me.
And same Georgia.
They only lose and dont cover to a guy named Nick Saban, not a cosch who is refusing the use the portal.
Dawgs by 21.
Lets get used to it again this year
I was reading an essay about the worst teams in College football at the end of the 2023 season and the author said that the MAC is “arguably the worst conference” but I would argue that it’s not really arguably-they are the worst. What is arguable is which MAC team will be the worst this year. Of the 5 worst teams last year the MAC boasted 2, Kent who went 1-11 and Akron tied for the second worse school at 2-10 (along with Vanderbilt, Louisiana Monroe, and ECU). Who will be the worst this year? Most of the MAC has a chance at that title but each school has their ups and downs, and other than EMU, each has been a conference champion at least once in the past 15 years. This year Akron is set up for a spectacular L against The Ohio State University. Akron has never beat OSU and the last time the met up Akron lost by 52 points. There is no indication that we are living in kinder times and that OSU will go easy. Once I bet on Hawaii season opener to Michigan and still lost with their 70 point spread. Historically, when spreads are as big this OSU/Akron ma chip, favored team covers the spread 80% of the time. Despite this historic evidence, 70% of the votes and 60% of the money is on Akron. Give me OSU (-49.5)for the mean win.
ReplyDeleteOther votes
Kent +24.5 vs Pittsburgh
Nebraska -27.5 UTEP
UCLA -12.5 Hawaii
USC +4.5 LSU
Boston College +21.5 Florida St
ND +3 over Texas A&M (pick of the week; using my no-essay week)
ReplyDeleteLSU -4.5 over USC
FSU -21.5 over BC
Michigan -21.5 over Fresno State
Ole Miss -42.5 over Furman
Georgia -13.5 over Clemson
Clemson +13.5 over Georgia
ReplyDeleteLouisville -34.5 over Austin Peay
Oklahoma St -9.5 over South Dakota
Portland St +29.5 over Wazzou St
DeleteIndiana -20.5 over Florida International
Liberty -36.5 over Campbell
Today's essay is for Oklahoma St.
DeleteI admit I never contemplated the spirit of the CBRF essay requirement. I always just took it as an opportunity for us to tell stories or particularly juicy bits of insight over our picks, but I suppose it is sage wisdom to never place a bet without being able to explain it with rational thought. If only Ippei Mizuhara had understood this, he would probably still have the best job ever and not be on his way to a likely bid in federal prison.
This is also my first year participating since embracing advantage play and giving up sports betting as a serious pursuit in favor of card counting. But the great thing about Cheddar Bay is that you don't get kicked out for being too good. Not that I think I am all that great--my performance the last few years has been middling at best--but my action was deemed too good for at least one worldwide gambling conglomerate.
What does any of this have to do with Oklahoma State and South Dakota State? Nothing, but I admit my reasoning is pretty short: the line has shifted considerably towards OSU so I'm following the market. Sometimes, a good bet doesn't need 100 words.
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ReplyDeleteas a product of the university of ma @ amherst, we minutemen are proud of our academic achievements, the fine arts center and dr. j, we are not proud of the football program. the most renown event to occur at alumni stadium was the 1979 allman bros/gratetful dead concert. weekend after weekend the spread against umass is too big to reasonably consider. today, however, happy birthday to me! a rare opportunity to enthusiastically pick against umass.
ReplyDeletegive me east michigan +1.5
Florida
ReplyDeleteOSU based on the Agnes essay
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Starting the season strong by almost forgetting to pick any damn college games. Time to throw some darts at some multi-TD spreads:
ReplyDeleteIdaho State +32.5 over Oregon State
Alabama -30.5 over Western Kentucky
Georgia State +20.5 over Georgia Tech
Notre Dame +3 over TA&M
Wyoming +6.5 over Arizona State
I will essay the Oregon Football Ducks -43.5 over Idaho (homer pick). The story of the Oregon program over the last couple of decades has been a pitched battle for recruiting relevance waged first against the SoCal schools and now, I guess, against the rest of the continent-spanning Big Ten. A significant part of this process has been the ceremonial running up of the score on, usually, Portland State in the early weeks of the season. No idea about Idaho, honestly, but I am hoping Dan Lanning is going to want to keep things aggressive pour encourager les autres. (Or maybe the wheels are going to immediately fall off this year.)
FSU essay by default. FSU is going to be pissed off after being shocked in Ireland and there is a huge talent gap. They’re at home and that will help a lot when it comes to getting things right. The line has moved somewhat substantially to BC’s favor but there is a pretty overwhelming talent gap here (admittedly there was one against GT too but BC doesn’t present the same schematic challenges). FSU has been embarrassed by two straight Georgia schools but they have too much self respect to not take care of people being coy about having attended school in Boston. I like FSU to roll and look a little more like themselves in prime time tonight.
ReplyDeleteAlso this essay was typed out on my cell phone at the Village Pump at Kelleys Island so forgive the somewhat superficial analysis.
Delete