Cheddar Bay Super Wild Card Weekend - Playoffs Week 3
While there's been some separation in the field the championship is still within everyone's reach. This weekend the rubber meets the road with six first-round NFL playoff games.
Per ScoresandOdds as of 11:02 PM on Thursday we've got:
Browns -2.5 at Texans, 4:30 PM Saturday
Dolphins +4.5 at Chiefs, 8 PM Saturday
Steelers +10 at Bills, 1PM Sunday
Packers +7 at Cowboys, 4:30 PM Sunday
Rams +3 at Lions, 8 PM Sunday
and Eagles -3 at Bucs, 8:15 PM Monday.
Packers +7 at Cowboys, 4:30 PM Sunday
Rams +3 at Lions, 8 PM Sunday
and Eagles -3 at Bucs, 8:15 PM Monday.
IMPORTANT: This week's picks are to be emailed by 3:30 PM EST on Saturday to the designated addresses or they will not count.
Good luck to all and enjoy the games!
Good luck to all and enjoy the games!
Just to be clear, you can also post your picks directly in the thread by 3:30 PM on Saturday as well for them to count but if they're not posted OR emailed by the deadline they won't count.
ReplyDeletePer the rules previously announced, correct votes this week will earn 5 points each, 10 points for the essay: THIRTY-FIVE (35) points available in total.
ReplyDeleteDK
ReplyDeletePittsburgh (+10)
Dallas (-7)
Rams (+3)
KC (-4.5)
Tampa (+3)
Essay - Cleveland (-2.5)
First, I would like to give a sarcastic thanks to Mike B for placing a Cheddar jinx on me last weekend. After going 4-0 in the early games, he remarked how I was climbing the Cheddar standings. Naturally, I went 0-4 the rest of the way. The picks were stellar - but the curse was real. This may be my last gasp at this year's Cheddar race - and since this is a rare Browns' playoff game - I may as well set myself up for pure joy or misery.
I don't particularly like the Browns' defensive matchup against the Texans - given the similarity between their offense and the Rams (a team that blew the Browns off the field). But there is a scrappy magic about this year's Browns and I like the idea of Stefanski coming off a mini-bye week. In recent years (including this one), Stefanski and Callahan have used bye weeks to improve the O-Line play and run game. I also like Cleveland's 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS record as favorites, despite playing on the road.
JohnPeter33
ReplyDeleteTexans +2.5 to the Browns
Chiefs -4.5 to the Dolphins
Bills -10 to the Steelers
Packers +7 to the Cowboys
Lions -3 to the Rams
Buccs +3 to the Eagles
Essay for the week
Bills -10 to the Steelers
Now that the game is moved, I think that's the sweet spot for me.
Bills -10
Steelers limped in on Tomlins coaching, which is great. but the Bills have figured it out, the Bills are healthy, and fully functional.
Sure, there's a Watt. But the OLine for the Bills are #1 or #2 in the league.
I think Josh has time to throw when he wants, and dominates the inside of the field- from like 7-12 yards.
Bills by two TDs.
Matt Borcas
ReplyDeleteDolphins +4.5 over Chiefs
Steelers +10 over Bills
Cowboys -7 over Packers
Rams +3 over Lions
Eagles -3 over Bucs
Essay: Texans +2.5 over Browns
Of the three potential AFC South champs the Browns could have played this week, I was most afraid of the Texans. I felt that way for two reasons. First, it's tough to beat a team twice, especially in such a short span of time. (Unsurprisingly, the Browns split with all three of their divisional opponents this year.) And second, the difference between Case Keenum (who started the Texans' 12/24 game against the Browns) and C.J. Stroud is massive. More broadly, everything went the Browns' way on 12/24 (well, except that garbage-time onside kick), and that won't happen again. The Texans are healthier now, Amari Cooper won't be posting 260+ receiving yards again, and Riley Patterson is a total wild card. Give me the Texans +2.5; I love a good emotional hedge.
Fantasy Ponzi Scheme
ReplyDeleteBuck: Ladies and gentleman, the Jags can't hurt us anymore, and we're keeping that biscuits lead warm. I'm Joe Buck, and you all know our fearless leader, Troy Aikman.
Troy: I thought you were the leader of this operation.
Buck: Me? I'm terrified we'll have another one of our flirtations with a Virgin Lobsterita.
ALL PLAYS:
Texans +2.5 (over Browns)
Packers +7 (over Cowboys)
Lions -3 (over Rams)
Bills -10 (over Steelers)
Eagles -3 (over Bucs)
ESSAY: Dolphins +4.5 (over Chiefs)
Buck: Thank the Gods we are in Jacksonville, because it is very cold in several other parts of the country. That means you don't have to wear that crocheted sweater.
Troy: It's cozy because it has sentimental value, Joe.
Buck: Well, it'll take a lot more than that to keep you warm in Kansas City. We got the Chiefs, right?
Troy: In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast, my friend. Cold weather doesn't usually move the needle, but there's a difference between just plain miserable and conditions unfit for humanity. It's harder to grip and catch the football when your fingers are quickly turning numb and the ball feels as hard as a rock.
Buck: I guess that means we're going to see both teams run the ball a lot more.
Troy: You're absolutely right, Joe. And if Andy Reid were honest with you, he doesn't want to run the ball when times get tough. I think Pacheco is a hell of a back, but I think you'll see the pass-first team blink first.
Agnes Bojaxhiu
ReplyDeleteTexans +2.5
Dolphins +4.5
Bills -10
Cowboys -7
Lions -3
Eagles -3 essay
Tampa bay is one of the worst home teams in the league, in fact the worst in the league at red zone conversions to touch downs at home at only 30%. The Eagles are not great but as an away team they are at 50%, which makes them 66.6% better in this match up. Their average score per away game is 20.7 points and the Buccaneers average home points per game is only 17.6. Literally 3.1 points worse than the Eagles, which makes that 3 point spread enticing. Also the Eagles have a slightly higher field goal conversion rate than Tampa Bay and I only need one. Plus, one of my favorites, the Eagles have not covered in 6 games so are due.
SqueekyClean
ReplyDeleteTexans
Fins
Bills
Cowboys
Lions
Eagles
Essay: Eagles. Does it get uglier than this? This team went full on straight up dumpster fire down the stretch. The offense looked horrendous, the defense outright quit, coaching changes, Dom removed from sideline, goes on and on. Now arguably their best player is out. And still hanging as road favorites (although this has moved off the 3). Meanwhile, Bucs a nice warm fuzzy story. Defense getting healthier. At home. I mean, I have no idea the Eagles win but I guess I will try it. Eagles for the essay.
Old Frowner’s Super Wild Card Votes:
ReplyDelete1) BROWNS
2) Dolphins
3) Bills
4) Cowboys
5) Lions*****
6) Bucs
Too much Rams hype. Too much Jared Goff disrespect. It was just a couple weeks back that the Lions went into Dallas on Jimmy Johnson night amidst about a dozen Cowboys Hall of Famers and much pomp and circumstance, shut down the high-powered Cowboys offense, kept Goff protected against a nasty pass rush, and earned a win that was basically taken from them by the refs. Every talking-head and tout I’ve heard this week is high on a Rams upset and LA as a playoff dark horse. I’m not as impressed with the Rams late-season run, wherein 5 of their 7 wins were against non-playoff teams, with the other two being a week 18 win against Niners backups, and the ref-aided win in Flacco’s first Browns start. I like the Lions to keep some heat on Stafford with the help of the home crowd, give Goff a clean pocket, and defend their home turf with a win by more than 3.
Enjoy the games all and Go Browns!
So, it appears that hometeam's picks got sent via PDF somehow. Obviously do not do that because then we can't cut and paste them into the thread. I'm not retyping the essay but the picks were as follows:
ReplyDeleteBrowns -2.5 essay
Chiefs -4.5
Steelers +10
Packers +7
Rams +3
Bucs +3