Cheddar Bay Playoffs Week 5: Conference Championships
Jason Kelce's bender continues this weekend in Baltimore with the Chiefs +3.5, followed by Lions +7.5 at San Fran.
Picks are due by 3PM on Saturday to the designated email addresses, 10 points per game with an extra 5 for the vote of the week. Best wishes to all for the season's penultimate weekend.
DK
ReplyDeleteKC +3.5
Essay - SF -7
At this point, I'm throwing a Hail Mary to try to finish in the money. So - I'm throwing out some strategic picks, hoping they land. I'm thinking the Cheddar players I'm chasing are going heavy on Detroit +7 (which is a great pick) and Baltimore's defense shutting down Mahomes (also a strong bet).
I'll go the opposite way where I envision the Lions' storybook run ending. Despite their league best ATS mark, the Lions will desperately miss their homefield advantage. I don't think Jared Goff travels well and he's not a great outdoors QB. The Lions squeaked by the Rams and the Bucs one dimensional offense weren't much of a match. I think the 49ers are motivated by their close win last week and ill-fated conference championship loss from a year ago.
In the AFC, the league clearly wants Taylor Swift in a Vegas press box. Something fluky will happen in the last minute of that game that benefits the Chiefs. But for Cheddar purposes - I'll go with the Niners in what could be a blowout win.
Fantasy Ponzi Scheme
ReplyDeleteBuck: Welcome to the penultimate biscuit battle hosted in this Jacksonville living room. I'm Joe Buck, and I'm proud to introduce ESPN's highest paid employee, Troy Aikman.
Troy: Count your own biscuits, number two.
Ravens -3.5 (over Chiefs)
ESSAY: Lions +7.5 (over 49ers)
Buck: When in doubt, take the points; right, partner?
Troy: You're absolutely right, Joe, but I'm not in doubt. I never thought the 49ers were as good as everyone said they were, and they don't get to beat up on soft opponents anymore. The playoffs are a different beast.
Buck: Yeah, but this offense is completely different with Deebo Samuel. He's gonna play.
Troy: He may be active, but I think he'll be too hurt to be a factor except in some goal line packages. He won't be returning kickoffs anymore, I promise you that. I also don't have much faith in Brock Purdy. It got a little wet, and all of a sudden he can't hit his passes and the media falls over themselves to remind us of that excuse.
Buck: It'll be clear skies in Santa Clara. I think you're a Niner Hater.
Troy: Look, the Lions are no lock to win, but give me that 7.5. They won't be pushed around.
Agnes Bojaxhiu
ReplyDeleteLions essay built on the wisdom of tv character Hal Wilkerson and a Chiefs pick based on the wisdom of real life character Snoop Dog.
Tough weekend choices and the pundits are really no help at all. For example when searching for Snoop Dog wisdom since he plays a football coach in a movie, I got to witness his saying “Patrick Mahomes don’t do nothing but do what he do.” When you unpack those double negatives and circular reasoning it’s clear that game is hard to call, which leads me to choosing the Lions as my essay. Mostly because the Campbell coaching style makes it fun to watch the game. One of my favorite quotes and enduring truths comes from Malcom in the Middle dad Hal and I’ve often thought of it during Lions games, “See, it’s what I always tell you boys. Crazy beats big, every time.” (Season 3 Episode 3)
Now that doesn’t mean they will cover when favored, but builds hope for an underdog cover. And Detroit has a better kicker.
SqueekyClean
ReplyDeleteRavens
Lions
Essay: lions: Don’t love either of these games but the sharp love for the niners is over the top and obvious. Yes the lions pass d blows, but at least they can generate a pass rush at times and their run defense is solid. Really though this is just a play against purdy. I’ve maintained for the last two years he’s at best an average quarterback and I’ll stick with that again. Don’t love this but limited choices.
Old Frowner's conference championship votes
ReplyDelete1. Ravens -3.5 over Chiefs
It's Lamar's turn and this Ravens run has been a long time coming. Patty and Coach Poppers can't win 'em all and Tay-tay has a tour stop in Japan on Super Bowl weekend anyway so we'll probably see them back in the big game next year.
2. Vote of the Week: Lions +7.5 over Niners***
Granted my North Coast bias is heavily at play here, as is my general unimpressedness with nepo baby Shanahan, the antiseptic Niners stadium and fanbase, and fake, unsustainable, and collapsing California civilization. But also: I can't stop thinking of the Christmas game where the Ravens completely and very casually dismantled these Niners in San Francisco and made it look very very easy. I really don't think that was a game where the Niners were holding anything back and to the contrary I think that maybe part of last week's sloppy performance against the Packers is that these guys aren't really trying to see the Ravens again. Additionally: It's pretty rare -- and pretty neat! -- to have a situation in the NFL where a team's best player (or one of its best anyway) is from the city where he plays, not to mention grew up as part of his team's long suffering fanbase, like we have with the Lions and Aidan Hutchinson. Lebron-esque, you could even say. Which is all apart from Dan Campbell being pretty much the opposite of Shanahan (in the good way) and guys like Saint Brown and Sewell who are such great players and leaders of a group that really seems to want to win in a way that's rare in today's NFL. The fact that all the sharps are on San Fran makes me like this even more and sure, give us the extra 0.5 because Deebo is playing, fine, thanks. Forward down the field! Rah rah rah! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpKnvd8LPsM
JohnPeter33
ReplyDeleteChiefs +3.5
Niners -7.5
I hate the half point.
Essay: Chiefs +3.5
Go big or go MaHomes.
I can't logically explain my pick(s), nor my essay support.
But I can tell you, weather and running will be the two things we talk about for this Chiefs game.
Two of the best defenses of the year. Two teams that will run inside the numbers, use the middle third of the field. I could see Lamar and Kelce both having 2 TDs and the game coming down to a field goal- hence the pick. If I could take the UNDER - I would for 8 units here.
I think the most important part of this game is the first possession of the 3rd quarter. I hope the Chiefs defer and start the 2nd half out with a score.
hometeam
ReplyDeleteravens - 3.5
lions +7.5 essay
qb, defense, coach - the three categories that will determine sunday's game. conventional wisdom says lions pass based offense might have trouble in an open air stadium. watch for jared goff and company to use a blend of ground and pass play strategy to elude the 49ers defense. jared goff, hot. brock purdy, not.
though san fran's defense is 3rd overall, it can be vulnerable to a run-based offense. lions do have a pass based offense but can adjust as conditions (i.e. grass) dictate. lions d is more of the reverse, weak in pass protection - better at stopping the run. lions need to neutralize christian mcaffrey.
finally, have to j'adore dan campbell. that's a man.
give me the lions + 7.5
Matt Borcas
ReplyDeleteLions +7.5 over 49ers
Essay: Ravens -3.5 over Chiefs
If you thought picking against the Chiefs and losing the past two weeks would have me rethinking that strategy, think again. The Ravens have been a cut above everyone else in the league this season, and even Patrick Mahomes won't be able to overcome them. Lamar is dangerous enough as it is, and for him to get his favorite target—Mark Andrews—back for this game is enormous. The Chiefs won't be able to stop Baltimore on offense, and the Ravens defense will feast on the banged-up Chiefs offense. As much as it will pain me to see it, the Ravens are going to the Super Bowl.