Cheddar Bay Playoffs Week 4: Divisional Round
It's still technically anyone's game with only four (4) more days of football left in the season and accordingly four of (in the Exec Comm's view at least) toughest picks on the board we've seen since 22-23.
Houston +9.5 at Baltimore, Saturday, 4:30 PM;
Green Bay +9 at San Fran, Saturday, 8:15 PM;
Tampa +6.5 at Detroit, Sunday, 3:00 PM;
and KC +2.5 at Buffalo, Sunday, 6:30 PM.
You know the drill. All four picks due by 3:30 PM Saturday to the designated email addresses. Godspeed, God help, God bless, excelsior, and enjoy folks. It's Reality Football at its finest and the rubber is really meeting the road.
DK
ReplyDeleteSF -9.5
KC +2.5
Baltimore -9.5
Essay - Tampa Bay +6.5
I'm feeling good and surly after the Browns got whipped last week - a result I should have seen coming. I'll admit I'm more steamed that I fell for the hype and picked them as my essay. Anyway, I'm going to carry forward this venom and vote against any and all cute underdog narratives currently unfolding. I'm wishing for both CJ Stroud and Jordan Love to fall flat on their faces and I cannot wait for the Bills' latest playoff hiccup.
Stupid emotion aside - I enjoy the Detroit Lions and I'm happy for their fans. They're a great story but unfortunately, I see a lot of parallels between the Lions and recent Bills' teams. Detroit is capable of getting hot and making a Super Bowl run, but they're also one of those teams that can lose a game in the final minute thanks to a freak play or referee intervention.
From an ATS perspective, this is a fascinating game. Each team is 12-6 ATS - tied for best in the league. But, the Bucs are an unusually productive road team. They're 8-1 overall Away and 7-1 as an Away Underdog. I think this spread is a bit high - maybe to entice bettors on what is the least lustrous of the weekend games. So - I can't believe I'm doing this again, but I'll take Baker "Back Against the Wall" Mayfield.
JohnPeter33
ReplyDeleteHouston +9.5 to Baltimore
San Fran -9 to Green Bay
Detroit -6.5 to Tampa
Buffalo -2.5 to Kansas City
Essay:
9ers -9
I think the line should be more than -10. But people are convinced the Packers are legit… or Jordan Love is. And he maybe he is.
But. I’m betting on the Niners using all their fun ‘Swiss army knives’ to control the middle of the field.
I’m driving to Nevada right now - to put money on the ‘9ers over team total’ and I think they get there fairly easy.
Packers can’t stop the Niners. So, Niners offense role.
And I’m on them to win the Super Bowl
‘7 good quarterbacks and Brock Purdy’
Matt Borcas
ReplyDeleteTexans +9.5 over Ravens
49ers -9 over Packers
Bucs +6.5 over Lions
Essay: Bills -2.5 over Chiefs
Heading into the playoffs, the buzz surrounding the Chiefs was that they were suffering from a Super Bowl hangover, Mahomes didn't have enough weapons around him, and this simply wouldn't be their year. Did a win over the Dolphins in historically frigid conditions change any of that? In my view, no. The Dolphins were sputtering even more than the Chiefs to end the regular season, and they played like they wanted no part of that game in KC. But the Bills are a different story. They've now won six in a row and finally get a much-desired home playoff matchup with the Chiefs. Their offense was firing on all cylinders last week, and I expect that to continue so long as Josh Allen remains willing to run. The Bills will put the Chiefs out of their misery tomorrow.
SqueekyClean
ReplyDeleteTexans
Niners
Lions
Chiefs.
Essay on niners but using essay pass for the year as out of town thx
Fantasy Ponzi Scheme
ReplyDeleteBuck: We are holding on for dear life in this Jacksonville living room. I'm Joe Buck, and Troy Aikman will introduce our newest sponsor.
Troy: Yeah, our friends at the Center for Disease Control and Prevention would like to remind you that UV rays are real and not part of a propaganda machine. Wear sunscreen and prevent cancer. The sun still exists when it's bone-chilling cold.
ALL PLAYS:
Texans +9.5 (over Ravens)
Packers +9 (over Niners)
Bills -2.5 (over Chiefs)
ESSAY: Lions -6.5 (over Bucs)
Buck: Troy, after last week, maybe we should bet against the worst remaining playoff team: the Bucs. What did you think of Gardner-Johnson's comments about Baker Mayfield this week?
Troy: Is that the guy who asked fans to wear ski masks? It's bizarre, but it's a blip on the radar. He's not a leader, and he struggles to stay healthy or have a secure role. Here's another thing: he may be right. Baker Mayfield is by far the worst quarterback of the playoff field. He has the best chance to give us a Flacco-like performance.
Buck: You mean win a Super Bowl?
Troy: No, I don't, Joe.
Agnes Bojaxhiu
ReplyDeleteChiefs
Tampa
Ravens
GB essay
Things have gone from bad to worse in the post season for old Agnes-I guess my strength lies in tier 2-3 college team match up’s or maybe weekend football voting isn’t for me. Seriously missing Tuesday night maction. Anyway, I don’t have much to go on this week but on Facebook I follow an MST3K group which has gone crazy lately with “the Packers won the Super Bowl” memes and clips as the phrase was said every time a group of people was running or gathering during the Giant Spider Invasion episode. I think this is the most the group members have paid attention to football in years and just shows how the sport can bring together a wide range of fans. https://youtu.be/0iqLhdInGrk?feature=shared (also the 49ers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 divisional playoff games)
Go packers!
hometeam
ReplyDeletethe chiefs come in to this weeks game with fewer injuries, the bills homefield and drought of
post season wins evens the imbalance. Buffalo has made a late season adjustment to a
run-heavy offense which contributed to 7 wins in their last 8 games. josh allen can bring a solid
passing game if necessary, he’s 4th in the nfl w/ 4,306 in 17 games and a 66.5% rate of
completion. dubbed “the chumps of camps”, the bills have lost in the divisional or conf round
every year since 2019. after the previous decade of no post season appearances bills mafia
demands this win. Give me the bills -2.5
hometeam
picks:
texans +9.5
49ers - 9.0
lions - 6.5
bills - 2.5
Old Frowner's Divisional Round Votes
ReplyDeleteRavens*** over Texans
Niners over Packers
Bucs over Lions
Chiefs over Bills
***Vote of the Week: Ravens: When the Bears drafted Roquan Smith in 2018 I thought he would play there for his entire career and was shocked when there was talk of the Bears letting him go to another team. Of course it had to be the Ravens, a move that flew under the radar last season because it happened shortly after Lamar Jackson went on the IR for the year. To me it seems that even the best defensive lineman have comparables across the league but the same does not go for inside linebackers who have to be able to not only fill holes and tackle but also run and make plays in space. There was Ray Lewis back when and not really another guy close. Same went for Patrick Willis, and now Roquan, who gets to play next to another elite LB in Patrick Queen. As good as the Browns defense was this season, and as improved as the LB play was behind a much improved defensive line (especially JOK) their linebackers didn't compare to Baltimore's. The Texans had a nice game plan last week and were at a substantial advantage in game planning given that it was the teams' second matchup of the year but with the Texans having played the first one without their starting QB. There seems to be wide misapprehension that the Texans blew the doors off the Browns last week from start to finish but the truth is that even despite first-half officiating that was egregiously slanted in Houston's favor (the failure to call PI when Njoku was tackled with the ball mid-air was as bad as it gets), the Browns were in position to make it a one-score game and potentially close to within 3 points if not at least 7, more than half-way into the third quarter before Flacco melted down with his consecutive pick-sixes that sealed the game for Houston. CJ Stroud has had a fine rookie season but I'll maintain that he and the Texans are coming into this game overrated and for various reasons on both sides of the ball won't keep up with the Super Bowl favorite Ravens.