2023 Cheddar Bay Playoffs - Week 2
It was an action-packed nip and tuck first round of the playoffs and it's still anybody's game, except for Ben who was eliminated in his sudden death race with Matt B (congrats on a decent season and better luck next year, pal). This week we've got a bit of a lull with 7 NFL games of varying interest, but all with playoff implications and tight spreads, as well aas a big one in Houston on Monday night between the Huskies and Wolverines for all of the (amateur) marbles.
Please note that it's VERY IMPORTANT to note that ALL PICKS FOR THIS WEEKEND are due by 7:15 PM on Saturday, Jan. 6. You can either post them directly in the thread or you can email them to the two email addresses that were provided to you by email from the Exec. Comm., the owners of which will ensure they remain confidential and posted here at approximately 7:15 on Saturday.
The NFL games that all must pick this week are the following:
Texans +1.5 @ Colts, Sat. 8:15 PM
Jags -3 @ Titans, Sun., 1:00 PM
Falcons +3 @ Saints, Sun., 1:00 PM
Bucs -4 @ Panthers, Sun., 1:00 PM
Bears +3 @ Packers, Sun., 4:25 PM
Seahawks -3 @ Cardinals, Sun., 4:25 PM
Bills -2.5 @ Dolphins, Sun., 8:20 PM
The NFL votes will be worth THREE (3) points per win.
And Monday night in the CFP final we have Washington +4.5 @ Michigan, 7:30 PM for EIGHT (8) points, with the essay for this week being worth an additional five points for a total of either EIGHT (8) if NFL, or THIRTEEN (13) if it's the CFP final.
With the field of play thusly set, we wish all another wild, wooly, and safe weekend of playoff football voting.
Good luck the rest of the way, all. If anyone wants side action using the Cheddar contest lines, hit me up at BCWickert@gmail.com and we can discuss.
ReplyDeletetexans +1.5
ReplyDeletetitans +3
saints -3
buccaneers -4
bears +3
seahawks -3
bills -2.5
washington +4.5 essay to follow
hometeam
essay switch: bears +3
Deletethe bears are poised to win now. as an organization they have a solid starting qb who can run & throw, they're in the top half of the league in points/game and their injury list is short - a rarity in week 18. might be some concern re: bears defense, but that makes the game worth viewing. the pack has a l o n g list of injured/questionable starters. is jordan love ready to assume aaron rodgers legacy? this is the test.
bears v packers is the oldest rivalry in the nfl.
the bears have no post season implications so this game is strictly house money.
to review: beat their division rivals, play spoiler for post season and still retain the #1 pick? (bears have carolina's pick via trade) give me the bears +3
hometeam
Colts -1.5 to the Texans
ReplyDeleteTitans +3 to the Jags
Saints -3 to the Falcons
Buccs -4 to the Panthers
Bears +3 to the Packers
Cards +3 to the Seahawks
Bills -2.5 to the Dolphins
Huskies +4.5 to Michigan (essay)
essay:
DeleteHuskies +4.5 to Michigan.
Speed wins? Speed over O-line here.
Washington has a better QB (by a lot), better WR (versus DB) by a lot. but - can the Washington line keep Big Peni# energy on his feet.
I know that Corum will be able to run, with the Michigan oline being elite, but I think Washington can score 'fairly' easily and keep it tight. I don't think Michigan wins by more than 7, so I am taking a risk on this being my essay.
Huskies have been dawgs in like their last 3 games and have won outright. Let's go Huskies.
Colts essay
ReplyDeleteNo essay standouts this week so going with the first game. My sources give Colts a 60% chance of covering when comparing the line shift to historic data, yet they have less $ and few votes-maybe because they are 0-4 in their last games in January. I like that they are the second in non offensive touchdowns and the Texans are #1 in giveaways per game.
Other votes
Washington
Dolphins
Cardinals
Packers
Buccaneers
Falcons
Jags
Hi, I'm hopping in to post the emailed picks and we apologize for the delay.
ReplyDeleteFrowns
Old Frowner's Cheddar Bay Playoff Votes for Week 2
Colts +1.5 over Texans
Titans +3 over Jags
Falcons +3 over Saints
Panthers +4 over Bucs
Bears +3** over Packers -- **Tempted to make this my Vote of the Week because one of my hottest (and rightest) NFL takes currently is that the Bears would be insane to get rid of Fields and not take Marvin Harrison with the #1 pick and compete for the Super Bowl next year.
Seahawks -3 over Cards
Dolphins +2.5 over Bills
Vote of the Week: Michigan - 4.5*** over Washington -- ***I would enjoy a Huskies win very much here and it's easy enough to see it happen especially the way they handled Oregon and Texas in their last two games moving the ball up and down the field at will with Penix dropping dimes to a top flight WR corps (as good as Harrison was last season Rome Odunze should have won the Biletnikoff Award) and Dillon Johnson averaging 5 yards per carry behind the certified best offensive line in the nation. I expect there will be a lot of public money on Washington for these reasons and also because the public mostly wants to see Michigan lose. For these reasons and also because I still believe the job that Harbaugh is doing at Michigan is underrated and the fact that the 4.5 line has held fast all week I will keep a stiff upper lip and Vote Blue here.
DK
ReplyDeleteHouston -1.5
Tennessee +3.5
New Orleans -3
Chicago +3
Seattle -2.5
Miami +3
Washington Huskies +4.5
Essay - Tampa Bay -4.5 over Carolina
Desperate times call for desperate measures...or something like that. I'm hurting after last week's college picks and my hopes of defending my Cheddar crown are growing faint. So, in a last ditch chance to get back into this great competition, I have to do something completely against the grain - something so illogical, something so crazy that it just might work.
I'm in 6th place. This can only mean one thing. In the oft repeated words of a diminutive QB with a chip on his shoulder the size of Texas, I have to admit:
My back is against the wall.
And when your back is against the wall, you come out swinging. You bet big. You bet on Baker F-ing Mayfield.
So - I'm sinking my last hopes into the guy who frustrated the hell out of me for four years. What could go wrong?
Plus, I like Tampa's 10-6 ATS record and if they win, they wrap up their division. So, we'll go with the Bucs.
Squeaky
ReplyDeleteColts
Jags
Saints
Panthers
Bears
Seahawks
Dolphins
Essay: Michigan: Michigan played tight and pretty much terrible last week, but still managed to get it done. Box score dive shows yards advantage, but horrendous special teams had them behind late. Still, they found a way. This should be a much much better matchup. Michigan's strength is their secondary and if they can slow down this Washington passing attack, they should find success with the power run game. Number also seems like it's begging for dog action. Since I'm expecting 0-7 out of those NFL coin flips will probably need this one to stay in contention!
Borcas
ReplyDeleteColts -1.5 over Texans
Saints -3 over Falcons
Bucs -4 over Panthers
Bears +3 over Packers
Seahawks -3 over Cardinals
Dolphins +2.5 over Bills
Washington +4.5 over Michigan
Essay: Jags -3 over Titans
The Jags have a lot on the line in this game: a win would give them the AFC South crown and a home playoff game; a loss would likely eliminate them from the playoffs altogether. Given these stakes, I expect Trevor Lawrence to suit up, just as he did against the Browns six days after spraining his ankle. And because the Texans have absolutely nothing to play for (except draft position), I expect the Jags to win this game with relative ease—even if CJ Beathard has to play. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill will be starting for the Titans. He’s been dreadful this season and clearly lacks the chemistry that Will Levis has with Deandre Hopkins. My only hangup with this pick is that this game will likely be Derrick Henry’s swan song in Tennessee, so Vrabel has every reason to feed him like he’s never fed him before. But the Jags have a solid run defense, and they held Henry to 38 yards in their meeting earlier this season, so the Henry factor doesn’t trouble me too much. Jags will win and set up a home playoff game with the Browns.
I have not received Ponzi's picks so stay tuned on that.
ReplyDeleteSorry guys for the delay, I'm in Egypt right now. I have the Fantasy Ponzi Scheme picks, which were emailed on time.
ReplyDeleteBuck: America, we are now swimming in biscuits in this Jacksonville living room, first place and buttery hot at the right time of the year. I'm Joe Buck, and next to me is habitual shit talker, Troy Aikman.
DeleteTroy: You're absolutely right, Joe. I don't care what the results say, I'll always win the next one. I've got that Ja'Maar Chase energy.
Buck: Settle down, champ. We haven't won anything yet. It's like Family Feud, remember? There's still 154 biscuits to be had in the last five weeks, and that's way more than we've scored all season.
Troy: College games are behind us, all but one. Everyone's chance to take us down just came and went. You can't tell me otherwise, Joe.
ALL PLAYS:
Texans +1.5 (over Colts)
Jags -3 (over Titans)
Saints -3 (over Falcons)
Bucs -4 (over Panthers)
Packers -3 (over Bears)
Cardinals +3 (over Seahawks)
Michigan -4.5 (over Washington)
ESSAY: Bills -2.5 (over Dolphins)
Buck: Troy, if you recall, we took the Bills over the Dolphins in week four with a slightly worse betting line.
Troy: You're absolutely right, Joe, and it worked out pretty well. The Dolphins are beat up, and the Bills are on a roll. I don't see any reason to change now.
Buck: I can think of one reason: Tyreek Hill. MVP caliber season.
Troy: I'd find it hard to focus if I was playing through injury and worrying about my kid setting the carpet on fire. That's the theme of the team, really. Go look at how many injuries are reported for the offensive line. We know from big Dolphins losses how getting to Tua is the key to everything. And now that Bradley Chubb has a torn ACL, I don't think Josh Allen is going to face a lot of pressure.