It's Cheddar Bay Christmas -- Week 17 -- Regular Season Finale -- Ravens (+TBD) @ Niners, 12/25, 8PM
It's Christmastime on the Bay, the AFC's #1 seed is still in play for the Cleveland Browns, and it is most certainly quite a time to be alive. The 2023-24 Cheddar Bay regular season will end with our all play on Christmas night in San Francisco with the Ravens squaring off against the Niners. Oh, the memories!
For this week's early action (Tuesday through Friday) the official Cheddar Bay lines are as follows:
Tues, 12/19:
SCOOTER'S COFFEE FRISCO BOWL: UTSA -7.5 v. Marshall
Thurs, 12/21:
ROOFCLAIM DOT COM BOCA RATON BOWL: S. Florida +3 v. Syracuse
NFL THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Saints -4.5 @ Rams
and Fri, 12/22:
UNION HOME MORTGAGE GASPARILLA BOWL: Ga. Tech +4.5 v. UCF
As for the rest of the week's action, the NFL lines are here, and the college lines are here. As for the playoffs, please note that the Bowl games between Tuesday 12/26 and Thursday 12/28 will at most be optional playoff picks, with no playoff all plays starting until Friday 12/29 at the earliest. Official playoff format will be announced before Tuesday. In the meantime, Merry Christmas and happy holidays to all!
USF +3 over Syracuse
ReplyDeletePittsburgh +1.5
LA Chargers +12.5
Indy +1.5
Tennessee +2.5
AP - San Francisco -5.5
**I'll be back with the Essay and POTY**
**I'm swapping out Tennessee +2.5 for Chicago -4.5**
Delete**Essay and POTY - Chicago -4.5 over Arizona**
I guess if I want to defend my Cheddar Championship, I should probably get into the playoffs. So, let's go big this week.
I don't trust my gut enough to go with an overdue Pittsburgh team, so I'll take the Bears at home against a fading (and tanking) Cardinals squad. The Bears are 3-0 over their last 3 home games and sport a 4-2-2 ATS after a loss. They're a few plays away from being on a 5-game winning streak and have boasted one of the league's better defenses over the last couple months. Further, the Cardinals are 1-6 overall on the Road and sport a mile-long injury list. Let's finish with the West Coast team traveling East (Central) and go big here with the Bears.
Georgia Tech+6.5
ReplyDeleteBrowns -2.5
DeleteTampa -2.5
Air Force +1.5
Utah -6.5 v Northwestern essay
This game is the stuff dreams are made of. Northwestern has covered 6 in a row and has 87% of the money and 76% of the bets. Utah’s the 5th best defense against rushing and the 28th best rushing team while NW is 73rd against the rush and 120/133 rushing. NW seemingly good offense is all based on their success against the passing game. So it doesn’t mater if they are good against a 5th string quarter back when he’s going to hand it off to one of their star rushers, including Micah Bernard who was just released to come back after being out for most of the season and will want to prove himself. According to teamrankings.com, “since the start of the 2018-2019 college football season there have been 79 neutral site games where the closing line favored one team by 5.5 to 7.5 points. In these games: Team like Utah won the game 50 times (63.3%) and did better against the spread, going 42-37 (53.2% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 2.2 points. Since the start of the 2020-2021 college football season there have been 103 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 3 points less than the opening line. In these games, the team like Utah did better against the spread, going 54-48-1 (52.9% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.5 points.”
Let’s go Utes
Niners
Deleteutah -6.5
ReplyDeletenc state +2.5
bengals -2.5
browns -2.5
titans +3
49ers -5.5
the essence of christmas is to believe - and it's easy to believe in joe flacco. flacco's gift to david njoko is to revive njoko's season. let's see if cooper can hold onto the ball like a cherished present. the sharps have pointed out that only 2 weeks ago the texans let the jets score 30 points, and no cj stroud today.
Deletethe last two browns' home wins have been heart attack inducing, the innocent wonder of browns fans hoping for a win will be rewarded today with a strong schwartz orchestrated defense and a confident offense. merry christmas,
give me the browns -2.5 hometeam
AP: Ravens +5.5
ReplyDeleteBears -5.5
Browns -2.5
Colts +2.5
Utah -6.5 (Essay)
San Jose St -9.5
My lawyers have advised me that I have yet to use my no essay week, so this is as good a week as any to use it. So with that, Merry Christmas Happy Holidays to all, good luck to those who are on the playoff bubble (such as myself), and I hope to be alive for week 18.
Buck: We are at the doorstep of the Cheddar Bay playoffs, and after last week's Play Of The Year earning six buttery biscuits, we're feeling very good about surviving and advancing from this modest Jacksonville living room. I'm Joe Buck, and you all know the future GM of some lucky NFL team, Troy Aikman.
ReplyDeleteTroy: I don't know about that, Joe.
Buck: Hey, starting in the broadcasting business worked for John Lynch, didn't it?
Troy: Yeah, but it did nothing for Matt Millen.
Utah -6.5 (over Northwestern)
Bengals -2.5 (over Steelers)
Browns -2.5 (over Texans)
Dolphins -1.5 (over Cowboys)
Cardinals +4.5 (over Bears)
ESSAY & ALL PLAY: Ravens +5.5 (over 49ers)
Buck: Troy, the Ravens feel awfully disrespected with the 49ers being big favorites to win this game, and they are frequently saying so in the media.
Troy: Whatever you need to put a chip on your shoulder, I guess. The Ravens are 11-3, so you're gonna have a tough time convincing me that no one believes in you as a team. Heck, I think the Ravens are gonna win this game.
Buck: That's very bold, considering how dominant the 49ers have looked.
Troy: Yeah, but don't forget, they lost three straight to the Browns, Vikings, and Bengals, too. I think they are a front-running team, Joe. What I mean is they prefer to play with a lead, because of how it shapes their play tendencies and how they rush the passer. They've constantly bullied their opponent off the field, but I'm not sure they've had to out-class an opponent. The Ravens will not be bullied, Joe.
Start off with college requirement: Air Force
ReplyDeleteRest tomorrow
Essay and GOY: Browns: This isn't really GOY material, but I have to do one (had many better opportunities) so here it is. Browns have looked revitalized with Flacco and still have the stout defense. Houston looked great last weekend, but this would figure to be a much tougher spot and their multilevel injury situation has really not improved. While the best value was probably on the opener, still see Browns as right side, especially at anything less than 3. They should be able to slow down Texans enough and get enough of their own.
DeleteBuccaneers
Bears
Vikings
All play: Niners
Utah State -1.5 over Georgia State (essay)
ReplyDeleteSan Jose State -9.5 over Coastal Carolina
Buccs -2.5 over the Jags
Cowboys +1.5 over the Dolphins
Broncos -6.5 to the Pats
9ers -5.5 to the Ravens
Utah State -1.5 over Georgia State essay: look. the aggies go to my home state of Idaho often (5 years in a row). They know the weather, the stadium, and they know that they barely made it to bowl eligibility . They are all coming to play, the coach still has something to prove, and they want to win this game.
ReplyDeleteAlso- I am screenshotting this and sending it to my boss. He's a Utah State grad. so I will get some Christmas kudos and be cheering for my boss' team. I can't wait.
Also (also)- Georgia state ain't got time for the cold that is up here today. Wet, rainy, cold, no fun. this. is. no. fun. for sure.
Utah State wins by 7 or more, and the under is in play the whole game - Utah state uses a 2 QB system. One of them plays well, and one won't. making it so. so. fun.
SJSU -9.5 over CC
ReplyDeleteSteelers 2.5 over Cinci
DeleteRavens 5.5 over Niners AP
Georgia State (+1.5) and Northwestern (+6.5) for One Point Per Please and thank you.
ReplyDeleteYou know what give me Tri-C as well (Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (+9.5))
DeleteBears -4.5 over Cards
DeleteVote of the week: Dolphins -1.5 over Cowboys. I initially thought I'd pull the trigger on the Cowboys this week but all I've been hearing this week about this game is how the Dolphins haven't beaten a team with a winning record all season. Also, this is the fourth week in a row where the Cowboys are playing in a national slot. Three weeks ago they won but fell short of the cover against the Seahawks on Thursday night, then they whooped the Eagles on Sunday night the following week, and got whooped by the Bills last Sunday in the 4:25 PM game of the week. It feels like this should be one they come back and win but you know the Dolphins are soft and smoke and mirrors and they haven't beaten a team with a winning record all year so ... Thus, feels like one the Dolphins will get here, especially with the Cowboys' largest sons on each side of the ball, Smith and Hankins, out today. Expecting spirits will be Merry and Bright at Hard Rock Stadium on Christmas Eve, then back to reality for Dolfans next week in Baltimore.
DeleteFinally, will take the Niners in the All Play. According to the NYTimes Playoff Machine, if the Dolphins win today, the Ravens lose to the Niners tomorrow, then beat the Dolphins next week, all we would need is a Steelers win against the Ravens in the season's final week to guarantee a Browns home playoff game (and potentially the #1 seed) assuming the Browns win out. After typing this out it seems hard to believe this WON'T happen but I suppose this is why we watch the games folks.
Merry Christmas!
Exec. Comm. Announcement: Playoff format will be announced here in the thread tomorrow (Sunday, 12/24), hopefully by morning.
ReplyDeleteLast college pick of the year, let's make it Utah -6.5 over Northwestern
ReplyDeleteAll Play 49ers -5.5 over Ravens
DeleteLions -3 over Vikings
Browns -2.5 over Texans
Bears -4.5 over Cardinals
Essay and POTY Broncos -6.5 over Patriots -- I generally try to avoid picking them and it generally doesn't work out well when I do, but in this festive season when we both need a win and a lot of help to make the playoffs I am inclined to make a grand POTY-shaped gesture towards the Denver Broncos. On the merits, it's a must-win home game against a demoralized Patriots squad with a turnover-prone QB and that may be on the verge of doing the unthinkable to Bill Belichick. I'm probably more optimistic about the Browns' chances today, but being a Broncos fan these last few years has been all about enjoying and appreciating the little intangible things about the NFL season (as opposed to, say, "being good" or "winning games") and what is Cheddar Bay about if not that? Broncos by a million and if not, well, we'll do it again next season. Merry Christmas!
"I generally try to avoid picking them and it generally doesn't work out well when I do"
DeleteWow
coastal
ReplyDeleteniners
colts
ReplyDeletetitans
lions
browns
essay tmrw
Steelers (W)
ReplyDeleteSJSU (L)
Ravens 5.5 over Niners
Cards 4.5 over Bears
Vikings 3 over Lions
Essay: Chefs -10 over Raiders
The KC offense has been flailing all year, but this is a get right spot against a Raiders team who plays much better at home and is coming off a huge blowout win over the Chargers. The Chefs’ calling card this year has been their swarming defense, which I anticipate holding Aiden “the other AOC” O’Connell in check. 27-10 Chefs
I hunted and pecked a whole essay on my phone for the Bengals, but it never posted. LOL. Saved by stupid technology. But it did cost me my college pick(s) which were for Utah St. and against Utah, so win some lose some.
ReplyDeleteI guess my 5 this week will be
1. Cardinals +4.5 @ Bears
2. Colts +2.5 @ Falcons
3. Jaguars +2.5 @ Buccaneers
4. missed college pick :(
AP. 49ers -5.5 v. Ravens
E. Browns +2.5 @ Texans
I have a sanguine feeling about the Browns today. They've been so close to blowing teams out the last few weeks, but keep letting them back in due to inopportune turnovers. Today they get a QB they are very familiar with, an immobile Case Keenum. A literal sitting duck if you will for Myles to get home a few times and cash in some of those pressures he's had the last few weeks that mobile Trevor Lawrence and mobile Justin Fields were able to escape.
Another week to get on the same page with is receivers and a beat up linebacking core means Joe Flacco should continue to execute the offense at a high level this time without the back-breaking turnovers. The Browns win this comfortably and set themselves up with a chance to get the playoff berth at home next Thursday night.
Merry Christmas and happy Cheddar Bay playoffs, everyone!
Looks like I unintentionally forfeited my college pick this week. Anyway, here goes:
ReplyDeleteColts +2.5 over Falcons
Titans +3 over Seahawks
Jags +2.5 over Bucs
Ravens +5.5 over 49ers
Essay: Browns -2.5 over Texans
I had this game chalked up as a loss for the last several weeks, but C.J. Stroud's absence (to say nothing of Will Anderson's) changes the calculus. The Browns can practically taste the playoffs, and they know a win today means they can clinch at home on Thursday night against the lowly Jets. Case Keenum isn't intimidating anyone, especially Kevin Stefanski, who presumably knows his weaknesses as well as anyone. The Browns shouldn't need many points to win this one, so as long as they can keep the number of backbreaking turnovers under two, Flacco Fever should reach new heights in Houston.
Missed the college pick due to technical difficulties....
ReplyDeleteJags +2.5
Jets -3
Bears -4.5
Giants +13.5
Essay / AP: 49ers -5.5
Did you know that Chris Simms and Kyle Shanahan have tattoos of each other's names? The bromance began when they were roommates at the University of Texas and clearly, the inkage has propelled Shanahan to great heights.
The Ravens may be the best team in the AFC and, yes, this may be a Super Bowl preview. And yet, I cannot put any faith into Lamar Jackson until I see him beat a good team. Further, their schedule has been anything but a gauntlet of powerhouse teams. They've lost to the Steelers, Colts, and Browns.
Christian McCaffrey is a cheat code. Brock Purdy is one of the fastest-processing QBs in the league who may very well be the first Mr. Irrelevant to win an MVP award. I'll take the Niners all day long.
Alright folks, as for Playoff format, the Exec. Comm. sees no choice but for this first week to be a Mega Bowl Extravaganza so as to even out a bit the NFL tilted nature of these proceedings. Here's the format:
ReplyDeleteWeek 1: 12/26 to 1/1: All players are required to pick the New Year's Six Bowls: Cotton, Peach, Capital One, Fiesta, and the two initial playoff games. Additionally, all players are required to pick SIX additional Bowl games between these dates, at your discretion. Finally, there will be three NFL games selected as the week's best or most meaningful games from next weekend's slate. All picks are worth THREE points for this week, with your Vote of the Week essay worth TEN points. This will make for a total of FIFTY-TWO (52) points available for the first week of the playoffs. Yes this is heavy on the points but again it is intended to even out the playoffs a bit between pro and "amateur" voting.
Week 2: 1/1 to 1/8: We'll have a bit of a lull in the action here due to it still being the regular season in the NFL but after next week's NFL action we'll make a fair selection of around 5 or 6 meaningful NFL games, if there are that many, for THREE (3) points per, plus everyone will pick the CFP Championship for EIGHT (8) points, with the essay for this week being worth an additional five points for a total of either EIGHT (8) if NFL, or THIRTEEN (13) if it's the CFP final. So there will be a total of about THIRTY (30) points available for week 2.
Week 3 will be the NFL Wild Card Round: six games, 5 points each, 10 point essay: THIRTY-FIVE (35) points available in total.
Week 4 is the NFL divisional round: four games, 7 points each, 14 point essay: again, THIRTY-FIVE (35) points available in total.
Week 5 is the NFL championship round: a 10 point regular pick and a 15 point essay, TWENTY-FIVE (25) points available.
We conclude, obviously, with the Super Bowl which will be TWENTY-FIVE (25) points.
I think this is more or less it but if my math is wrong and/or if there are any objections to this format please speak soon or forever hold your peace!
What is the cutoff for the playoffs? Does it change each round? I saw that it was eight plus ties last year, at least for the first round.
DeleteThe top 8 in the regular season standings make the playoffs and will pick in every round. If there are ties that make it so the field is more than 8, those who are tied for the last slot will play "sudden death" in the playoffs, such that whoever wins the first round will advance.
DeleteFor the 3 NFL games, playoff participants may choose amongst the following games for their 3:
DeleteLions @ Cowboys
Raiders @ Colts
Saints @ Bucs
Dolphins @ Ravens
Steelers @ Seahawks
Bengals @ Chiefs
Packers @ Vikings
We'll post the Scores and Odds lines for these on Thursday.