Cheddar Bay Week Fifteen: Navy +2.5 at Army (3 PM Saturday)
No need for a PDF, this week's only college game (perforce the All Play) is 5-6 Navy at 5-6 Army, Saturday at 3 PM. Here are this week's NFL lines, and here as always are the standings.
A proper playoff post is pending, but for now: the final week of the Cheddar regular season will be our Week 17 (ie Christmas). This will make the first round of the playoffs a bit less of a scramble. Like last year the top eight contenders will make the playoffs (with ties handled by sudden death in the usual fashion). In the meantime, anyone who has not yet used their POTY should make sure to do so!
Patriots +6
ReplyDeleteSaints -5.5
Jets +3.5
Vikings -3
Bills +1.5
Army -2.5 essay
Navy and Army have almost identical stats. Average scoring margin -8.1 vs -7.5
Points per game-Army ranked 124th, Navy 123rd out of 133 FBS teams
Yards per game 124th vs 127th
Opponents yards per game 59th vs 54th
Where Army stands out is a superior kicker. They are 23rd in field goal conversions at 83% vs Navy at 115th at only 60%, which translates to a better red zone scoring percentage edge of 75% vs only 68%. 78% of the money is on Navy and there has been no line change to nudge that closer to 50 so Vegas must be happy with those votes. Give me a win by a field goal
Frowns is driving but he wants in with some New England action for 1 point
ReplyDeleteArmy -2.5
DeleteVote of the week: Ravens -7.5 (essay skip). Will also take Browns -3, Bears +3, and Raiders +3.
Delete1. Patriots +6 @ Steelers
ReplyDeleteAP. Navy +2.5 v. Army
Delete2. Titans +13.5 @ Dolphins
Delete3. Seahawks +10.5 @ 49ers
4. Bears +3 v. Lions
E. Raiders +3 v. Vikings
I wish I would have had time to throw an essay on last night's Steelers collapse. Them boys was chanting for Mason Rudolph? That might be the most audio of Mason Rudolph ever caught on Thursday Night Football. But I digress...
My 3 biscuits this week are to be wagered upon the Las Vegas Raiders. This is more so a wager against the Passtronaut and the Vikings achieving separation against anyone. The Vikings play 3 point or less games against everyone. They did with Kirk, they do with Josh. And the Raiders, while not good, are playing hard now that they have sent Josh McDaniels off to unemploymentland. And the Raidahs are at "home". A coin flip game and a good investment for cheesy biscuits.
Saints
ReplyDeleteBucs
Chiefs
Chargers
AP - Navy
Essay - Cowboys -3.5 over Eagles
I love the Cowboys at home this year (5-0) and as a favorite (8-2 ATS). Although the Eagles will be motivated coming off a much deserved butt kicking at the hands of the 49ers, this is the last chance for the Cowboys to compete for a divisional title (and a possible First Round bye). A win here, coupled with a Niners win puts all three teams at 10-3, which makes for a fun narrative heading into the season's final month.
Coming up on closing time for the RD squad.
ReplyDeleteArmy -2.5
Browns -3
Lions -3
Texans -3.5 - essay
Chiefs -1.5
Vikings -3
Interestingly enough, road favorites have been hitting at a high rate this year so I needed to tag one of those for my essay. On top of that, the Texans are playing the Jets. Zach Wilson coming back to the starting role with some, err, reluctance. The line movement is a little odd, going from -4.5 to -3.5, but I think that just reflects the inherent public bias towards home dogs that is making the road fave a more consistent winner. But really it just comes back to the Jets being the Jets. Let's look at some of the recent results: 5 point L at home, 21 point L at home, 26 point L on the road, 4 point L on the road, 21 point L at home. No brainer.
navy +2.5 because it's a belichick weekend
ReplyDeletehometeam
ravens -7.5
Deletelions -3
texans -3.5
broncos +2.5
chiefs -1.5 essay to follow
the chiefs need a "swift lift" (observation by a family member who has fallen under the nfl/taylor swift ether). a more sport savvy observer would note that the chiefs record ats after a loss this season is 3 -0. last week's loss v eagles left a mark. mahomes is better than that. dc steve spags is a ne home town favorite. the bills have been mecurial at best this season and don't travel well. give me kc -1.5
Deletehometeam
I’ll go Army for the all-play
ReplyDeleteArmy -2.5
DeleteCrap, 5 pro games to pick
Panthers +5.5
Bengals -1.5 (Essay)
Giants +6.5
Ravens -7.5
Broncos +2.5
The Bengals are looking like they’re settling in with Jake Browning. The Monday night game was a good one to watch and he moves the offense like an experienced veteran - he showed the league he can play, and someone will pay him good money next year. Both the Colts and Bengals are on the rise and based on their trends, I’d rate it a coin toss. With home field (and outdoors) I’m giving the edge to the Bengals
Army -2.5 (over Navy)
ReplyDeleteBuck: Welcome to the Jacksonville living room we call a broadcast booth. I'm Joe Buck, and I'm alongside... Troy, what are you doing?
DeleteTroy: I'm preparing for the elements, Joe. This is football weather.
Buck: You look like Humphrey Bogart. And it's 70 degrees outside.
Troy: We've still got wind, and rain is in the forecast. This coat was a lot of money, and I gotta use it sometime.
ALL PLAY: Army -2.5 (over Navy)
Saints -5.5 (over Panthers)
Jets +3.5 (over Texans)
Bills +1.5 (over Chiefs)
Packers -6.5 (over Giants)
ESSAY: Rams +7.5 (over Ravens)
Buck: Troy, if we're gonna have heavy rain and 30 mile per hour gusts, that's a big number to lay against the Rams. Probably too big a number.
Troy: You're absolutely right, Joe. The Rams are rolling, especially their running game. There's a strong possibility the Rams take advantage of this weather and win this game outright.
Buck: Is this a Play Of The Year?
Troy: No, I'm not willing to go that far. If I thought this mysterious illness would affect Lamar Jackson's ability, maybe. But that doesn't seem to be the case.
Buck: Last time he played the Rams, he threw five touchdown passes.
Troy: If he does that in this weather, I'll eat my fedora.
Buck: That's just as well, because it looks terrible.
All-Play / Essay : Army -2.5
ReplyDeleteCan you name a famous military battle? Marathon? Hastings? Gettysburg? Stalingrad? Maybe you can think of some others, and there have unfortunately been many to choose from. But, do you notice that rarely does anyone name a naval battle in doing so?
Two years ago, I attended this game for the first time in my life. It had been a bucket list goal of mine since I was seven-years-old. It did not disappoint. The cadets and midshipmen, freezing their butts off gleefully with their comrades. It was exactly like the few beautiful Saturday afternoons I'd spent watching games at West Point. Except that it was in the swampy, smelly Meadowlands instead of at Mickie Stadium. And, of course, it was much bigger. And colder.
Give me Army, because no one grows up playing with "Navy Men".
Others:
DeleteBrowns - 3
Lions -3
Falcons -2.5
Seahawks +10.5
Broncos +2.5
Navy +2.5 over Army
ReplyDeleteRams +7.5 over Ravens
DeleteBucs +2.5 over Falcons
Colts +1.5 over Bengals
Jags +3 over Browns
Essay: Bills +1.5 over Chiefs
This pick comes down to one thing: the Bills need this game a lot more than the Chiefs do. A loss would drastically reduce the Bills' playoff hopes; meanwhile, the Chiefs will remain atop the AFC West regardless of what happens in this game. Moreover, the Bills have had two weeks to prepare for this game, and Josh Allen usually gets the better of Patrick Mahomes in the regular season. I thought the Bills' offense looked as sharp as ever in their loss at Philly, and if they can duplicate that sort of performance, that should be more than enough to outscore the Chiefs, who appear to be sleepwalking through this regular season. Gimme the Bills, Sean McDermott's awkward pregame speeches notwithstanding.
All play: Army (I guess)
ReplyDeletePro to come later.
Additional:
DeleteEssay: Bungles. Was tough to find an essay from this card, but going with this. Browning looked quite competent last week (although it was a prime time game and now everyone knows) and he has weapons to spread it around to. Kind of reminds me of the Purdy situation in SF (lots of quarterbacks would be good with that assortment of skill players). Colts on the other hand are mediocre at best. They also have a super leaky defense and could serve up a boatload. Bungles for the essay.
Others:
Bears
Bills
Eagles
Vikings
Army
ReplyDeleteAll Play: Army (please)
ReplyDeleteRams +75.
DeleteBears +3
Texans -3.5
Cowboys -3.5
Chiefs -1.5 (essay)
Essay: Chiefs -1.5. I love the bills. I have a future for them winning their division. but. they are not great. they are 1-3 in the last 4 games. Josh is throwing a ton of turnovers. They are just not great.
DeleteNeither is the Chiefs wide receiving core, and they won't have Pacheco today, but I still think the Chiefs will win by 6-9 at home against a team that can't do much right.
POTY Time: Army -2.5
ReplyDeleteIt’s only fitting that, as the newly elected mayor of a “Purple Heart Village”, that this year’s POTY would be all about the Troops. We love our Troops, don’t we folks?
In some ways it is too bad that this game doesn’t quite mean what it used to in football terms, although in some ways that means society is progressing to a point where we’ve advanced beyond the pressures that kept athletes not-paid and young people thinking their career path had to involve the armed forces. In an era of the all-volunteer army, there is something salutary about athletes taking on the commitment that the service academies present, especially when our armed forces are as forward deployed as ever. Can we ever hope for a day when service is mostly stateside like it was when this game began? Ironically some of the most forgotten parts of the military-industrial complex are the service men and women themselves. I’m looking forward to a day when our national discourse recognizes that “Support Our Troops” can and should mean wanting them at home as much as possible.
I’m picking Army on the strength of the teams’ respective results against Air Force. Hopefully both teams enjoy their moment in the sun today, and let’s all pray that these young men on the field grow to be old men.
i shouldnt do this but.. i got time.
ReplyDeleteyes it's let's celebrate our military day. lotsa thanking you for service going on,, as if full pension after 20 years isn't thanks enough. we're shoveling 1.5 trillion PER YEAR to those fuckers (dod) who have failed six audits in a row. we got 200 billion to prop up the corrupt/illegal ukie govt in an unwinnable/goalless war (having left the prior unwinnable/goalless war a year earlier) and we got two carrier groups to ensure israel can bomb apartment buildings without fear of reprisal. i guess i could be happy that mark milley is gone but there is still a defense secretary in kiev this week using domino theory(!!) to give congress cover to vote for throwing another 100 billion into these ratholes. and they will debase the currency (ie, steal from everyone who uses the dollar) to do it.
so.. go army beat navy.
but i'm rooting for a small meteor to land on ft. meade. pro picks tmrw.
Love it
Deletebrowns
Deleteravens
lions
niners
packers
All play Army!
ReplyDeleteI completely missed the 1 PM timeslot so this is now a playoff-style "pick virtually every game remaining" exercise (the closest I will likely get to the playoffs, as it happens).
DeleteRaiders +3 over Vikings
Cowboys -3.5 over Eagles
Dolphins -13.5 over Titans
Packers -6.5 over Giants
Essay 49ers -10.5 over Seahawks -- I have been consistently wrong on the 49ers this year and watched them blow the doors off inferior opponents seemingly every week I do not pick them. So here we go again! The 49ers are arguably the best team in the league, they just won this game by 18 two weeks ago, Seattle has been almost exactly average on the season, and so SF at home by 2 TDs doesn't seem unreasonable (it didn't seem unreasonable for them to beat the Browns, either).
Army (W)
ReplyDeleteColts 1.5 over Cincy
Ravens -7.5 over Rams
Chargers -2.5 over Broncos
Browns -3 over Jags
Essay: Bears +3 over Lions
The Bears, perhaps emboldened by the fact that they will be picking #1 overall not by virtue of their own ineptitude but because of Carolina, are playing loose. Their defense has magically turned it around after a lousy start. Meanwhile, the Lions D has resembled Swiss cheese of late and just lost their second best pass rusher. Give me a resurgent Bears club catching a field goal at home.