Cheddar Bay Week 16: Cowboys (+1.5) at Bills
We're shuffling off to Buffalo for the all play this week, Cowboys +1.5 over the Bills.
For Thursday Night Football AKA the Easton Stick show we have [had] Raiders -3 over Chargers.
As for the rest, the lines for Saturday's and Monday's NCAA bowl games (which are the ones in play for this week) are here, here are the lines for the rest of the weekend's NFL action, which also includes a Saturday slate, and the current standings are here. As with all regular season weeks, you need to get at least one college vote in. Finally, remember, NEXT WEEK is the LAST week of the regular season so now's the time to expend those unused POTYs and make your playoff push. Godspeed all!
raiders -3
ReplyDeletehometeam
app st -6.5
Deletebroncos +4.5
bengals -3
giants +5.5 essay
cowboys +1.5
always attracted to an underdog - the giants have built a good reason for the pick. they have won 3 of their last 4 games and are playing well. barkley always plays out of his shoes, endlessly entertaining. the current object of the klieg light is qb tommy devito. he has taken care of the ball and so far pays attention to the game and the team. no jinx here please, but devito isn't guilty of the game crushing interception. the giants defense has struggled, avg allow 24 points so the offense has to perform. also, i have a fabulous vintage giants shirt. for luck. give me the giants +5.5
Deletehometeam
I'll take the team that didn't score last week over whatever the hell an Easton Stick is. Raiders for a point, please.
ReplyDeleteLas Vegas (From Thursday)
DeleteGeorgia Southern -3.5
Tennessee -3
Jacksonville +3
AP - Buffalo -1.5
Essay - Cincy -3 over Minnesota
None of the ATS metrics favor the Bengals here and actually, Minnesota is pretty strong (5-0-2 Away Record and 4-1-1 as an Underdog). However, most of those stats are bloated from earlier in the season, when Kirk Cousins got hot, then Josh Dobbs went on his mini-run. The Vikings have fallen back to earth (despite last week's 3-0 victory over the Raiders) and are correcting from 2022's run of several close wins. Throw in another backup QB (one even the Browns didn't want) and the fact the Bengals are firmly in the Wild Card hunt and I'll take the Bengals at home.
Dallas +1.5
ReplyDeleteChiefs-8.5
Bengals-3
Browns-3
UCLA -5.5
App St-6.5 essay vs Miami O
Uhh-weird portal/opt out line movements after a week where everyone who is playing this weekend who hadn’t covered for 5 weeks covered and everyone who had covered for at least 5 weeks failed to cover. My favorite go-to is out so I am stuck with bozo NFL guess their motivation in December or uninspiring college match ups. My first Essay of the year was Miami O to not cover so it seems fitting that their last game of the year I am voting against them. App St scored an average of 33.9 points/game this year while Miami O was only at 24 and that was with a QB. Miami O defense is ranked 21st while App St is 73rd-but at least App St has a quarterback. Miami is 3rd in FG conversion but App St. is not far behind at 12th. The over/under has dropped by 10 since opening and there is some reverse line movement with App state which makes it seem like this will be a relatively boring game. I found a website that tells you the historical outcome of games with similar closing lines and line movements, both of which give App St a 2-3% advantage over Miami O, so at least I have that going for the vote.
I can't believe you would vote against Miami (Ohio) kicker Graham Nicholson, who won the Lou Groza Award after making 26 of 27 field goals this season. Very out of character for you.
DeleteBuck: Welcome back to the Jacksonville living room we continue to call a broadcast booth for some reason. I'm Joe Buck, and I'm alongside MVP of Super Bowl 27, Troy Aikman. Troy, my dad called that Super Bowl, and I can remember him describing you as "not the best runner in the league". I still laugh about that one, considering how the game went.
ReplyDeleteTroy: Yeah, everyone's a critic, Joe.
Miami (OH) +6.5 (over Appalachian State)
Bears +3 (over Browns)
Jets +9.5 (over Dolphins)
Rams -6.5 (over Commies)
Eagles -3 (over Seahawks)
PLAY OF THE YEAR & ALL PLAY: Bills -1.5 (over Cowboys)
Buck: Troy, I don't have to describe the special meaning this matchup has to you, but you have the Cowboys winning in the here and now, right?
Troy: I'm afraid not, Joe. I'm sure Cowboys fans won't like that, but they'll tell you firsthand how much the defense depends upon their home field advantage. Instead, the Bills Mafia will give a boost to their defense.
Buck: Since we have only two weeks left for a Play Of The Year, is this the week?
Troy: This is the week. The Cowboys are playing with a big head right now, but I'm looking at their injury report, and they'll definitely miss their nose tackle, and probably miss their best corner and field stretcher, too, because neither of them practiced. Some kind of illness is going through that locker room, and it could affect more players than we think.
Buck: This can't be the only thing backing up a Play Of The Year.
Troy: You're absolutely right, Joe. I know from experience that playing in Buffalo is no fun. I still hate how they held us under 200 yards in '96. I expect this game to be wet with occasional wind gusts, and I think the Bills will play better in those conditions.
AP: Cowboys +1.5
ReplyDeleteGiants (Tommy Cutlets!) +5.5
Browns -3
Miami (OH) +6.5
Broncos +4.5
ESSAY: Falcons -3
I may be the only person in America who loves watching two bad football teams play -- it makes for great entertainment with lots of turnovers, mistakes, yelling, and headscratching. I guess it's the football equivalent of a double trainwreck. Those games also get very hard to handicap, because you can't account for incompetence. Yet, I am picking this game because the Falcons have two things that work in their favor: A strong run game and a competent, above average defense.
Bijan Robinson's carries were limited early in the year, because apparently Arthur Smith doesn't like winning. A 6'1", 220 lb human joystick needs to be a focus. Desmond Ridder is an X-factor, and just when I'd written him off, he's found a way to be a game manager. He has competent receiving threats and has started spreading the ball around.
The Falcons defense is top 10 in yards per pass attempt. They are facing an offensive line that's given up 51 sacks and is bottom 5 in the league. Bryce Young isn't a very good QB right now. I don't know that he will or won't be, but having seen him play in person, I will tell you he's small -- really small. In his defense, he doesn't have a lot of help. Carolina's only shot here is if they can establish Chubba Hubbard, but the Falcons give up the seventh fewest yards-per-carry in the league and have only given up 5 rushing touchdowns.
lions -4.5 vs broncos
ReplyDeletepats +8 vs chiefs
***browns -3 vs bears
cowboys +2 at bills
gaso -2.5 vs ohio
nmst -3.5 vs fresno
way too much respect and angst being paid to the perceived threat of 5-8 bears. before i get started i want to acknowledge that in fields' pre-season game against us earlier this year, i thought he looked really good. i think he can be really good. the bears problem is that the eberflus offense isn't good. if you look at the nfl team offense stats, bears are in the browns zone for offense... against a .474 schedule compared to browns' .550 sos. one of the wrs is out and dj moore isnt 100%. then let's drill into the five wins: commanders rushed 10 times for 29 yards for some reason; the mcdaniels version of raiders; carolina; bad dobbs vikes; and last week's win in detroit was cool. meanwhile i'm here to say the flacco offense is legit and njoku cheat code has been discovered.
tldr; bears not that good, flacco legit.
ADMINISTRATIVE NOTE: Sorry we were a bit late this week in posting the lines for the non-Thursday action but we are going to stick with the lines linked in the post here, the Saturday 12/16 lines, as the official lines for the games between Saturday (12/16) and Monday (12/18) this week so please check to make sure your votes comply with these official lines or forever hold your peace. ALSO: Next week's round, Week 17, the FINAL week of the regular season, will begin on Tuesday, 12/19 with the SCOOTER'S COFFEE FRISCO BOWL available for play (for the bona fide aficionados and connoisseurs of amateur American football). We'll do our best to get a placeholder up with Tuesday's ScoresandOdds line for that one but if we don't get that up in time please just consult ScoresandOdds dot com, screenshot the line for posterity, and post your SCOOTER'S COFFEE FRISCO BOWL vote in the thread here. Any questions or concerns as always may be posted here or sent directly to Exec Comm members and once again the Exec Comm wishes you all the best in your football voting endeavors here and otherwise. EXCELSIOR.
ReplyDeleteVikings over Cinci
ReplyDeleteAP Bills -1.5 v. Cowboys
ReplyDelete1. Vikings +3 @ Bengals
2. California +3.5 v. Texas Tech
3. Appalachian St. -6.5 v. Miami U.
4. Jaguars +3 v. Ravens
E. Browns -3 v. Bears
The Cleveland MF Browns are 6-1 at home. The lone home loss was to the Ravens when the Browns starting QB was scratched an hour and half before kickoff. They've allowed only 88 total points on the lakefront the major off of turnovers in minus territory. As weird as it is to say, the Browns do not lose at home.
The Chicago Bears are playing good football. The defense has been very good since Montez Sweat arrived at the trade deadline. Justin Fields has been in sync with DJ Moore since Fields has gotten healthy. The Bears are peaking right as they come to Cleveland.
But Justin Fields holds the ball too long. Trevor Lawrence and Matt Stafford got the ball out quickly, under 2.5 seconds on average, and were able to neutralize the Browns big advantage, Myles Garrett and Zadarius Smith. Fields holds the ball significantly longer, around 3.3 seconds per throw. If he wants to hold the ball, the Dawgs will eat.
Joe Flacco is a pro who will do just enough. Hopefully the Browns can run the ball a little bit. If they can do that and don't turn the ball over, it will be another good day on the lakefront.
AP: Bills -1.5
ReplyDeleteUCLA -2.5
Old Dominion -3.5
Giants +5.5 (Essay and to hell with it, POTY)
Buccaneers +3.5
Colts -1.5
Back to the well again for a Giants essay pick. There were whispers of Daboll getting the ax early on but the team now looks well-run. Tommy DeVito has the Giants looking like a completely different team. I had no doubt that they would win last Monday night after falling behind late in the game. Their two minute drill was methodical with icewater flowing through the veins of the entire team. Once they started letting Tommy Cutlets throw the team has had a chance to win - he’s not running for his life and forcing stuff. Oh and the Saints are not that great against the run, one of the Giants’ strengths (when not fumbling after falling on the turf). 5 and a half is a good spot for what should be a close game, so I’m riding the Giants to vault back in to playoff contention.
For the bowls
ReplyDeleteCal
Old Dominion
Jacksonville State
For the NFL
DeleteBengals
Ravens
Cowboys
Bowl pick Boise State +5.5 over whatever is left of UCLA
ReplyDelete1 PM games: Browns, Packers, Chiefs
DeleteAll play Cowboys, essay Ravens (essay skip week)
DeleteBoise State +5.5
ReplyDeleteTexas Tech -3/5
Dolphins -8.5
Jags +3
All Play: Bills -1.5
Essay: Rams -6.5
Essay: Rams -6.5
ReplyDeleteRams are surging. Coming off of 2 good showing. Sure, the Commanders are coming off of a bye week, but I don't trust 'Riverboat Ron' to do anything special here. (they lost by 30 heading into the bye week). I am hoping for a "give up on the coach' type of vibe from Washington.
I'm not saying I believe in Matthew Stafford, but I do believe in him to win this game by 9 or 10.
I'll start with Miami O. for a point to restore balance in my household from my wife's reckless vote against the 2023 Lou Groza Award winner.
ReplyDeleteBrowns, Jags, Commanders, Bills, Packers***
Delete***Vote of the week is the Packers (-3.5) to handle business over the Bucs today in Lambeau. Long trip for Tampa, expecting Green Bay to get back on track today at home and get a much needed win for playoff standing after a stinker last week in New York on Monday Night football in a strange game when the world was expecting them to beat the Giants badly which feels like an anomaly. The Bucs haven't beaten a single team with a winning record this season and while the Packers don't have a winning record they have been trending up, beaten some decent teams, and will be looking to bounce back today after a short week.
Start with: New Mexico St.
ReplyDeleterest to follow---
Additionals:
DeleteUCLA
Essay: Detroit Lions. Narrative has turned pretty negative for the Lions culminating with last week's epic stink bomb vs the Bears. The defense has gone completely in the tank and the offense has been inconsistent. The Lions have gone from an early year super bowl "darkhorse" to likely first round exit. The Donkeys on the other hand are allegedly trending up, but does anyone really think they are any good? Not me for sure. This looks like good get right spot for the Lions. Only concern is that this seems awfully popular about the gambling discussion sphere. We will try it anyway for the essay.
Finish up with:
DeleteAll play: Bills
Texans
Commanders
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteEditing my earlier post.
ReplyDeleteVikings (push)
ODU -3.5 over WKU
Bills over Cowboys AP
Saints -5.5 over Giants
Jets 8.5 over Dolphins
Essay: Tennessee -3.5 over Houston
Let me start by saying that I absolutely hate making this pick, because the Titans are brazenly sporting Houston Oilers throwback uniforms against the city who proudly wore them for decades before their rotten owner moved the team. As a Browns fan, I can't stand for this, and even as I type this, I'm starting to regret the karmic implications of this essay.
All of that said, the Texans are absolutely pillaged by injuries right now on both sides of the ball. Case Keenum -- whom I didn't realize was still in the league, let alone poised to make a start -- will get the nod for the Texans M*A*S*H* unit. I just can't see the Texans keeping with the Oilers um Titans on the road, lacking their QB, top 2 playmaking WR, and their best defensive player.
WKU +3.5 over ODU
ReplyDeleteBears +3 over Browns
Titans -3.5 over Texans
Chiefs -8.5 over Patriots
Jags +3 over Ravens
Essay: Bills -1.5 over Cowboys
Both teams are coming off big wins, but the Bills are desperate; the Cowboys aren't. Moreover, the Cowboys have been showered with nothing but praise since their big win over the Eagles, whereas all the talk after the Bills' big win over the Chiefs focused on Kadarius Toney's offside penalty. All of this is to say that the Bills have every reason to be the hungrier team in this game. And in a battle of two good teams, I'll almost always take the hungrier one. Bottom line: Dallas can afford to lose this one, so they will. The fact that the Bills are at home obviously doesn't hurt, either.