2023 Cheddar Bay Playoffs -- Week 1
Alright folks the playoff field has been set and today's contests are open for the picking pursuant to the format set forth below.
But first, congrats to our 2023 playoff field, who, by the Exec. Comm's. calculations (please feel free to check our math), consist of the following, including a tie for eighth place, who will compete in sudden-death until one prevails over the other in a round (presumably this first round given the large number of picks to be made, but stranger things have happened):
1. Our regular season champion, Agnes (whose prize is a 3+ point lead over the rest of the playoff field plus eternal glory); 2. SqueekyClean; 3. Fantasy Ponzi Scheme; 4. our defending champion DK who is seeking to become the third two-time champion in the storied history of this contest; 5. JohnPeter33; 6. Old Frowner; 7. hometeam; and tied for 8th, Ben and Borcas.
As announced in the Week 17 thread on Sunday, we are in for a wild and wooly first week of picking, the format for which is as follows:
Week 1: 12/26 to 1/1: All players are required to pick a total of FIFTEEN games, including each of the
"New Year's Six" Bowls, which are the following:
1. Friday, 12/29, 8PM, the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, No. 9 Missouri (+1.5) vs. No. 7 Ohio State;
2. Saturday, 12//30, noon, the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, No. 11 Mississippi (+3.5) v. No. 10 Penn State;
3. Saturday, 12/30, 4PM, the Capital One Orange Bowl, No. 6 Georgia (-16.5) v. No. 5 Florida State;
4. Monday, 1/1, 1PM, the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, No. 23 Liberty (+17.5) v. No. 8 Oregon;
5. Monday, 1/1, 5PM, the Prudential Rose Bowl, No. 4 Alabama (+1.5) v. No. 1 Michigan; and
6. Monday, 1/1, 8:45 PM, the Allstate Sugar Bowl, No. 3 Texas (-4.5) v. No. 2 Washington
ADDITIONALLY, all players are required to pick SIX additional Bowl games between 12/26 and 1/1 at your discretion using the lines posted HERE.
AND FINALLY, all players are required to pick THREE NFL games out of the following seven matchups involving playoff contenders (any three from these seven will do, player's choice), the lines for which are HERE:
Lions @ Cowboys (Sat. 12/30, 8:15 PM)
Raiders @ Colts (Sun. 12/31, 1PM)
Saints @ Bucs (Sun. 12/31, 1PM)
Dolphins @ Ravens (Sun. 12/31, 1PM)
Steelers @ Seahawks (Sun. 12/31, 4:05 PM)
Bengals @ Chiefs (Sun. 12/31, 4:25 PM)
Packers @ Vikings (Sun. 12/31, 8:20 PM)
All picks are worth THREE points for this week, with your Vote of the Week essay worth TEN points. This will make for a total of FIFTY-TWO (52) points available for the first week of the playoffs. Again, yes, this week is heavy on the points but again it is intended to even out the playoffs a bit between NFL and college voting.
Usually we offer the opportunity for folks to submit their votes by email to avoid any appearance of gamesmanship, but for this first weekend that's a bit unwieldy so we'd prefer to avoid that and will assume that Agnes and our other leaders in the standings will maintain their honour and not be aping the picks of those below them in an effort to maintain their lead, which would be a tall task anyway given this week's format so we'll just ask folks to post their votes in the comments this week, as long as all votes are in before kickoff with essays in an hour before kickoff, and will get back to emailing with a deadline for all votes for Playoff Week 2. Will post the format for the following weeks again in the comments here, and otherwise will wish all playoff participants luck and blessings and all observers an enjoyable week of tracking the action. Thanks, please post any questions or concerns in the comments, and with that the 2023 playoff race is hereby underway!

For Week 2 of the playoffs, 1/1 to 1/8: We'll have a bit of a lull in the action here due to it still being the regular season in the NFL but after next week's NFL action we'll make a fair selection of around 5 or 6 meaningful NFL games, if there are that many, for THREE (3) points per, plus everyone will pick the CFP Championship for EIGHT (8) points, with the essay for this week being worth an additional five points for a total of either EIGHT (8) if NFL, or THIRTEEN (13) if it's the CFP final. So there will be a total of about THIRTY (30) points available for week 2.
ReplyDeleteWeek 3 will be the NFL Wild Card Round: six games, 5 points each, 10 point essay: THIRTY-FIVE (35) points available in total.
Week 4 is the NFL divisional round: four games, 7 points each, 14 point essay: again, THIRTY-FIVE (35) points available in total.
Week 5 is the NFL championship round: a 10 point regular pick and a 15 point essay, TWENTY-FIVE (25) points available.
We conclude, obviously, with the Super Bowl which will be TWENTY-FIVE (25) points.
I think this is more or less it but if my math is wrong and/or if there are any objections to this format please speak soon or forever hold your peace!
DK - Reboot is traveling this week so he emailed his Bowl votes, which are here:
ReplyDeleteUNLV +12.5
Minnesota -3.5
VA Tech -10.5
Oklahoma State +1.5
Kansas State -2.5
Oregon -17.5
FSU +16.5
Penn State -3.5
OSU -1.5
Michigan -1.5
Washington +4.5
Essay - Louisville -7 over USC
USC was a talent-laden, but middling squad during the season. Yet, they stumbled to a 7-5 record and 3-9 ATS. USC hasn’t covered a game since September and what remains of this year’s team will likely be replaced by incoming talent. USC enters bowl season missing most of their talent. Their top QB, RB, WR and CB are all out. While Louisville stumbled down the stretch, their roster is mostly intact. We’ll go with the local KY team here.
Sorry, DK had emailed me his NFL picks earlier in the week as well. He had Cowboys, Colts, and Saints.
DeleteI'll start with BGSU (+3.5) over Minn. and RICE (+3.5) over Texas State in today's games.
ReplyDeleteZona (-2.5) over Okla and NC State (+2.5) over K. State in today's games.
DeleteMizzou and Miss and FSU in the first three NY6ixes.
DeleteToledo +3.5 over Wyoming
DeleteLions +4.5 over Cowboys
Raiders +3.5 over Colts
DeleteSteelers +3.5 over Seahawks
Iowa +7.5
DeleteLiberty + 17.5
Michigan -1.5
Washington +4.5
Essay forthcoming
Essay: Michigan -1.5 over Alabama: Beyond the fact that Michigan's defense is loaded with NFL-ready talent in a way that Alabama's younger team isn''t quite, this also comes down to belief in Jim Harbaugh and the culture he's built at Michigan from a time where things were looking extremely bleak for the program. It's reasonable to say that the job he's done in turning the program around has gone underappreciated in the mainstream. Whatever truth there is to Conor Stalions' involvement in the program's strategy in recent years, the Wolverines have a lot to prove and have had a month to dig in to do it. I'll lay the point and a half with the more experienced group that has more to play for.
DeleteBGSU
ReplyDeleteEarlier today Frowns was taunting me on my Texas St. vote in a prediction bowl pool we are in so it seems like the best revenge would be a Texas St essay to start off our Christmas Eve celebration (I know it’s 12/26 but I had to work yesterday and family Christmas is on my schedule). Rice seems like an easy bet on paper with their superior defense, but Texas St. has a secret weapon that Rice will have trouble stopping-Mason Shipley. Mason is one of the best current kickers in college. He is 100% for the year in field goal conversions has only missed 1 extra point. His longest is only 47 yards but technically he hasn’t gotten a chance to kick from farther away. Last year he only had one opportunity to kick a field goal and made it from 54 yards. Rice’s special teams defense is one of the worst-ranking 117/133 FBS teams. Their kicker, Tim Horn isn’t great either-ranked 107th in field goal conversions at 66%.
ReplyDeleteOther college votes
Texas -4.5
Michigan -1.5
Oregon -17.5
Florida st+16.5
UNLV +10.5
Boston College +10.5
Kansas St -2.5
Oregon St +6.5
OSU -1.5
Ole Mis +3.5
Correction above UNLV is +11.5
DeleteWow
DeleteLions, Seahawks
DeleteChiefs
DeleteBuck: Welcome back to the broadcast booth, home of third place in biscuits heading into the playoffs. I'm Joe Buck, and I'm happy to introduce... Troy, what are you doing now?
ReplyDeleteTroy: Well, this Christmas stuff has to come down, and since the Jags aren't likely to do anything in the playoffs, I figured I'd get a head start on celebrating our upcoming wins.
Buck: Talking proudly about our modest accomplishments has never been a harbinger of good things this year.
Troy: It's psychological, Joe. Gotta act like a winner, or you'll never be one.
Tulane +10.5 (over Virginia Tech)
Oklahoma State +1.5 (over Texas A&M)
Boston College +10.5 (over SMU)
Arizona -2.5 (over Oklahoma)
Kentucky +5.5 (over Clemson)
Lions +6 (over Cowboys)
Steelers +3.5 (over Seahawks)
Packers +1.5 (over Vikings)
ALL PLAYS:
Ohio State -1.5 (over Missouri)
Ole Miss +3.5 (over Penn State)
Georgia -16.5 (over Florida State)
Oregon -17.5 (over Liberty)
Alabama +1.5 (over Michigan)
Washington +4.5 (over Texas)
ESSAY: Rutgers +1.5 (over Miami)
Buck: I'm sure it's well known now, but we hate betting on college sports more than necessary. So why is a meaningless bowl game our play of the week?
Troy: Well, Joe, I didn't feel too confident in the NFL slate, and I have a good deal of respect for Greg Schiano. I think there's an ocean of difference in coaching ability between him and Cristobal.
Buck: Not to be anything but supportive, but doesn't Miami just have more talent across the board?
Troy: On paper, I guess, but Miami has their starting QB and other key players opting out, and it's hard to predict who will be motivated for bowl games. This is what amounts to a home game for Rutgers, so if you're giving me a point and a half for a team I think will want to win outright, I'll take it all day.
Since the Lions line moved, I'm no longer taking that bet. Gimme the Bucs. That means my picks look like:
DeleteTulane +10.5 (over Virginia Tech)
Oklahoma State +1.5 (over Texas A&M)
Boston College +10.5 (over SMU)
Arizona -2.5 (over Oklahoma)
Kentucky +5.5 (over Clemson)
Bucs -2.5 (over Saints)
Steelers +3.5 (over Seahawks)
Packers +1.5 (over Vikings)
ALL PLAYS:
Ohio State -1.5 (over Missouri)
Ole Miss +3.5 (over Penn State)
Georgia -16.5 (over Florida State)
Oregon -17.5 (over Liberty)
Alabama +1.5 (over Michigan)
Washington +4.5 (over Texas)
ESSAY: Rutgers +1.5 (over Miami)
OK- let's see if I get this right.
ReplyDelete6 college games - dealers choice.
Louisville -7 to USC
Oklahoma State +1.5 to Texas A&M
Rutgers +1.5 to Miami
Oklahoma +2.5 to Arizona
Oregon State +6.5 to Notre Dame
Tennessee -7.5 to Iowa
More coming- including an essay.
Mizzo +1.5 to OSU
DeletePenn State -3.5 to Ole Miss
Georgia -16.5 to FSU
Oregon -17.5 to Liberty
Alabama +1.5 to Michigan
Washington +4.4 to Texas
still debating essay, but it'll be in an hour before any kick that I pick.
while it would be fun to have Washington at +4.4, my fat finger obvi meant +4.5.
Delete3 NFL picks:
DeleteColts -3.5 over Raiders
Buccs -2.5 over Saints
Chiefs -7 over Bengals
Essay: Alabama +1.5 over Michigan
DeleteI just can't see a Bama team with a plus sign and not take it.
They picked themselves up after their midseason loss and get their sh*t together. Meanwhile, Michigan didn't look as crisp as I would have liked in their last few games.
Until Harbaugh wins a big game like this, I fade him daily.
Also, Milroe is as confident as ever these last few days, and he can run (faster) than the Michigan secondary.
I'll start with my college picks:
ReplyDeleteRutgers +1.5 over Miami
Notre Dame -6.5 over Oregon State
Oklahoma State +1.5 over Texas A&M
Kansas State -2.5 over NC State
Maryland +7 over Auburn
Tennessee -7.5 over Iowa
Ohio State -1.5 over Missouri
Georgia -16.5 over FSU
Washington +4.5 over Texas
Oregon -17.5 over Liberty
Ole Miss +3.5 over Penn State
Essay: Alabama +1.5 over Michigan
Nick Saban hasn't lost a first-round playoff game since the first year of the CFP, and who could blame him for succumbing to the magic of Cardale Jones? Aside from that one anomaly, Saban's teams have proven unbeatable with a month to prepare for a CFP semi. So I am betting on that trend to continue. For Michigan's part, the Wolverines have, in their two CFP appearances, (1) shown themselves incapable of competing with the best the SEC has to offer, and (2) taken an L to a Mickey Mouse TCU squad that itself was incapable of competing with the SEC's best. Moreover, as in the past two years, they have to deal with Harbaugh-to-the-NFL rumors swirling as they prepare to play their biggest game of the season, to say nothing of the impending NCAA sanctions against them. And Jalen Milroe is miles better than any quarterback they have seen this season. Roll Tide.
now that it's been demonstrated that the statue with a cannon with what stefanski ACTUALLY needs, there is no excuse not to have the relatively youthful 12 gauge on the sideline instead of pj walker.. cardale is only 31!
DeleteNFL picks:
DeleteDolphins +3.5 over Ravens
Colts -3.5 over Raiders
Packers +1.5 over Vikings
west virginia -6.5 duke's mayo bowl.
ReplyDeleteok state +1.5
Deletekentucky +5.5
Deletenotre dame -6.5
lsu -9.5
tennessee -7.5
usc +7
Deletenote: usc late post: approved by frowns pre-kick-off via text
Delete1.) too many discretionary picks: please delete lsu -9.5 (1/01)
Deletenext:
missouri +1.5
mississippi +3.5
georgia -16.5
cowboys -4.5
ravens -3.5 (essay)
colts -3.5
afc east division rivals respect mike mcdaniel but realize the dolphins are sneaky frauds. the dolphins beat up on soft opponents (ok, that's kinda fun) but they don't travel well. It's reasonable to wonder if the ravens, fresh off a mnf win over the 49rs aren't a little tired and/or beat up; au contraire. a knowledgeable source insists the ravens are fine. harbaugh is great at getting his team into the post season and punishing opponents. the ravens are tough to beat at home. (browns not withstanding)
dolphins weapons tyreek hill, mostert and waddle are all hobbled. the ravens will miss flowers, otherwise they remain a fairly strong lineup which is rare for any team at this point in the season. give me the ravens -3.5
hometeam
fiesta bowl - liberty +17.5
Deleterose bowl - alabama +1.5
sugar bowl - washington +4.5
Let's get this started:
ReplyDeleteBowl game #1 Oklahoma St.
more to follow-----
Bowl Game #2 Rutgers
DeleteBowl Game #3 Arizona
Bowl Game #4: Kentucky
DeleteBowl Series Game #1: Missouri (terrible line)
DeleteBowl Series Game #2: Penn St.
DeleteBowl Series Game #3: Georgia (another terrible line but this time going with it)
Bowl Game #5: Wyoming
Bowl Game #6: Wisconsin
NFL Game #1: Cowboys
NFL Game #2: Saints
DeleteNFL Game #3: Vikings
Bowl Series Game #4: Liberty
DeleteBowl Series Game #5: Texas
Bowl Series Game #6 and Essay: Michigan
Nothing really that complicated here. The narrative throughout the last two months has been "Alabama is improving". While maybe they have, this is not a powerhouse outfit who is two games removed from winning on a hail mary vs Auburn. While they did take down Georgia, that was a dream spot, and they were a more sizable dog vs. a foe they know well, and a team that had an underperforming defense and who struggled all year. This is a different test, against a well organized and very disciplined Michigan team with a huge chip on its shoulder. While I have not entirely bought Michigan this year, they have answered every call, and should here as well. Negatives for the play are the Zinter injury (but they did get healthy elsewhere) and bonus time to prepare for Saban. Huge positives on the number and movement. Some may say that "books are overexposed with Alabama" but I highly doubt this, lots of tickets on Bama, but numbers guys and other large movers have pounded Michigan to slowly move this up.
Best of luck and Happy New Year!
Let’s kick the playoffs off with Ok State +1.5 over TAMU
ReplyDeleteGetting some more college picks in before kickoffs.
Delete12/29 games:
Oregon State 6.5 over ND
Iowa St. -9.5 over Memphis
PSU -3.5 over Ole Miss
Essay: Ohio State -1.5 over Missouri
My picks this year have been abysmal, so I'm putting all my eggs (fandom and contest) into the Buckeye basket. This is a bet on the Buckeyes gigantic talent advantage, "motivation" factors notwithstanding. Even if MHJ only plays a couple series, or doesn't play at all, I see the Buckeyes rolling in this one as some younger players get to step up. I don't know jack about college football anymore, but let's call this one a hunch. Buckeyes by BIG.
God, I suck at this. Getting all my picks in today so I can be put out of my misery.
DeleteOregon St (L)
Iowa St (L)
Ohio State (essay L)
Ok St (W)
PSU -3.5 over Ole Miss
Maryland +7 over Auburn
Georgia -16.5 over FSU
Liberty + 17.5 over Oregon
Michigan -1.5 over Alabama
Washington 4.5 over Texas
Iowa 7.5 over Tennessee
Wyoming -3.5 over Toledo
Dolphins 3.5 over Ravens
Raiders 3.5 over Colts
Steelers 3.5 over Seahawks