Cheddar Bay Week Fourteen: Georgia -5.5 "at" Alabama (4 PM Saturday)
For many of us the college football season has entered that bittersweet phase of sitting around waiting for other specific teams to lose, and the SEC championship game is usually a great spot to indulge that pastime. Congrats to JohnPeter33 for the year's second Lobsterfest, and best of luck to everyone (except Michael Penix Jr, no hard feelings). Here are the college lines and the pro lines, and here are the standings.
Cowboys for a point
ReplyDeleteGeorgia
DeleteSeahawks +9.5 (over Cowboys)
ReplyDeleteBuck: America, this broadcast booth owes you an apology for all but guaranteeing a one point performance with all our posturing last week. I'm Joe Buck, and joining me in this Jacksonville living room is minority owner of the Padres, Troy Aikman. Troy, you wanna talk about some awful collapses, look no further than the Padres missing the playoffs. That won't be us, champ.
DeleteTroy: You're absolutely right, Joe.
ALL PLAY: Alabama +5.5 (over Georgia)
Seahawks +9.5 (over Cowboys)
Bucs -5.5 (over Panthers)
Eagles +2.5 (over 49ers)
Packers +6 (over Chiefs)
ESSAY: Louisville +2.5 (over Florida State)
Buck: Troy, we try to bet on kids as little as possible, but there's plenty to play for in these conference championships.
Troy: I hate betting on college sports almost as much as I hate Brent Venables, but this is another tough NFL slate. I think the Gators managed to make Florida State look good enough without their starting QB to fool everyone into thinking they can beat Louisville.
Buck: I'm sure Louisville's disappointing result against Kentucky compounded that feeling.
Troy: You're absolutely right, Joe. I like what Jeff Brohm is building, and this is the signature win he needs. They've got a nice stable of running backs that may have been looking past Kentucky and looking forward to a chance at a ring.
All-Play: Alabama +5.5
ReplyDeleteNY Jets +1.5
Bucs - 5.5
Iowa +21.5 because, why not
New Mexico State + 10.5
ESSAY: Washington Huskies +9.5
This is a big spread for a conference title game, and a rematch at that. I am a big believer in Bo Nix, but I am less a believer in the Oregon defense. Expect the points to fly here, and that's going to spell a bit of trouble for Vegas with 9.5 points to play with.
We cannot overlook the fact that the previous matchup was tight and the playoffs are on the line. I expect both teams to come out hot, landing haymakers. In the end, Oregon may win, but I don't think they pull away. I know I'm trying to fit the window here, but if you've been paying attention, I apparently can't pick football games to save my life anymore.
Bama +5.5
ReplyDeleteTexas -14.5
Louisville +2.5
Iowa +21.5
Eagles +2.5
Falcons -1.5
Essay TBD
Eagles essay because I don't see them taking the home L. 49ers have put up bad games against tough defenses, and I think this line is skewed in part because of the 49ers' win over the Cowboys, which was 2 months ago. Also, the Cowboys are weird and kinda fake. I don't think the results are comparable, even though the Eagles margin of victory against Dallas was about 4 TDs less. More to the point, the Eagles have perfected the art of grinding out close wins. The ability of some of the better teams to drop insane, run up to the score to impress the BCS computers victory margins, like the Dolphins and Cowboys, aren't doing them any good when they run into the Eagles. Same thing for the 49ers here, take the home dog.
DeleteEssay & Play of the Year (that's a thing right?)
ReplyDeleteWashington +9.5
Completely different game than last meeting, low(er) scoring. More field goals, so the teams will be within 4 points the whole game, maybe Oregon goes up 11 with 4 minutes left, but Washington scores a TD to bring it home.
This line is giving too many points to the recent games of Oregon, maybe a field goal too much.
Penix health does worry me, I don't think he's been great lately- and I think it's health related. But I do know that Bo Nix isn't gonna win the Heisman based on this game. Washington D did pretty well the last two weeks, Oregon State and Washington State.
Let's go Huskies.
Bama +5.5 (all play)
DeleteBoise State -2.5
Texans -3.5
Chiefs -6
Steelers -5.5
Liberty-10.5
ReplyDeleteBeing loathsome doesn’t make you ineligible for a vote, though in reality this is more of a negative New Mexico State than a positive Liberty vote. NMS has covered 8 games in a row and is listed as “hot” in multiple ATS trend categories. They have covered all but three games this season, one of which was to Liberty when they were +9 and lost by 16. In addition, NMS has more money and bets and there is some reverse line action going on that makes me favor Liberty. It’s an actual home game for Liberty unlike most of the conference championships held a neutral location.
Other votes
Miami O +7.5
Jets +1.5
Panthers +5.5
Troy -5.5
DeleteGeorgia -5.5
ok state +14.5
ReplyDeletealabama +5.5
app state +5.5
steelers -5,5
texans -3.5 - essay
chiefs -6
late to the party, but i finally understand the groundswell for the texans. the broncos, also for real, have had a huge contribution each week from jerry jeudy. though cleared for today's game jeudy has a groin injury that may effect his play. only respect for sean peyton, but the texans are a legit favorite. cj stroud is the qb phenom that brings focus to a team and articles are written about tank dell. the texans have deep talent on offense and ryans is a remarkable rookie head coach. the over, 44.5, likely to be smashed,
Deletegive me the texans -3.
hometeam
UNLV +2.5
ReplyDeleteDetroit -4.5
KC -6
San Francisco -2.5
AP - Georgia -5.5
Essay - Tennessee +1.5 over Indianapolis
My essays have been hit and miss over the past month, so I'm trying to shake things up with a pure gut pick. The Colts have won three in a row, but the streak has been a bit of a mirage - beating the Panthers, Pats and Bucs - three of the league's weakest teams. The Titans aren't a playoff team this year, but they've played a lot of close games (minus the Browns' beatdown). The latest Ryan Day loss to Michigan again fueled the Vrabel to OSU rumors, which were quickly dashed by both the team and Vrabel's people - a solid sign that the coach, team and organization are aligned. Vegas clearly knows something here and it's really tough to beat a division opponent twice in the same year.
AP: Georgia -5.5
ReplyDeleteIowa +21.5
Lions -4.5
Commanders +9.5
Packers +6
Broncos +3.5 (Essay)
The Broncos have forgotten how to lose, and forgotten that they were supposed to be meh. Also I’m biased because my fantasy QB is was Joe Burrow, and my backup QB is Russell Wilson. There’s a lot of positive buzz around CJ Stroud - while well-earned, I’m guessing is driving the points a bit too far. The Broncos have hung around in games and have shown excellent clock management (a plus of a veteran QB). I see this as a medium to high scoring affair where the win goes to whoever has the ball last, and the extra 3.5 points for the Broncos are good for 3 cheddars.
bama +5.5 vs uga
ReplyDeletetoledo -7.5 vs miamio
unlv +2.5 vs boise
commanders +9.5 vs dolphins
saints +4 vs lions
packers +6 vs chiefs
shoot the only take i had this weekend was, milroe sucks earlier this year but now he's pretty good. that woulda been a fine essay but now i'm stuck as the only team i pay attention to is the browns. so let's change direction and essay the browns.
Deletefirst, the rams are back vibe is predicated on a nice win against... #1 draft pick contender az cards. second, browns lost last weekend imo because they were mauled in run game and rams rushing game is 'back' because kyren williams is back and had 143 last week. but if you look into it, williams other big game (158 yds) was against... also the cards. so i deem rams run game threat overblown. now lets talk about flacco and count me optimistic. if you're as tired as i am of having a defense stack one side of the line and watching dtr/pj run the play ks called right into their strength, then youre optimistic about an experienced qb who has the gravitas to change the play at the line. as for flacco's statue traits, i am guessing he knows he's a statue having been called one since 2008. thus he knows fast release is critical and he knows how to identify which in ks' five wide set is most likely to be open. only concern is that cute kevin will want to 'stretch the defense' with the new toy of flacco's rocket arm. im also gonna trust that callahan has shored up the interior line in anticipation of aaron donald.
so gimme the browns to win straight up and let's remove... commanders.
w bama +5.5 vs uga
l toledo -7.5 vs miamio
l unlv +2.5 vs boise
saints +4.5 vs lions
packers +6 vs chiefs
***browns +3.5 at rams
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ReplyDeleteAP. Georgia -5.5 v. Alabama
ReplyDelete1. Oklahoma St. +14.5 v. Texas
2. Louisville +2.5 v. Florida St.
3. 49ers -2.5 @ Eagles
4. Falcons -2.5 @ Jets
E. Chargers -5.5 @ Patriots
Chargers do nothing but play close games. The Patriots are terrible TV, so bad they just flexed Patrick Mahomes off of primetime to avoid this team. Stoppable force meets moveable object. But at least the Chargers can score. That's why I have them pulling off a modest 6-14 point win here. Once they get up 10-ish, that's too high a hurdle for the New England offense to overcome. Chargers need a W to remain in the AFC playoff race. While Bill's boys appear to be "1-2-3. Cancun!" already.
Essay and all play: Alabama: Have been net hugely negative on Tide all year but this game and the ensuing line movement reek. While I understand it is Alabama, they have been uneven and heavily criticized all year and are off an absolute look ahead stink bomb last week. In general, that is a huge plus for me (looking terrible in the look ahead but still winning). Flip side, what is Georgia? Defense has looked vulnerable. Outplayed or at least evenly played at home by Mizzou. Although impressive, still have a freshman quarterback. IMO, if this was really a clear cut superpower on rise they are more than 7. Instead, they are probably slightly past apex. I'll take the points here and hope for a close one.
ReplyDeleteOthers:
SMU
NFL tomorrow --
NFL:
DeletePanthers
Saints
49ers
Rams
I like Alabama a lot here off the miracle win in the big rivalry game. A team makes a play like the won that saved the Tide last week and it can really put wind under the wings. Squeeky more or less already said the rest of what I was going to say. I don't know why anyone would want to be against Jalen Milroe this week. If Alabama takes care of business today, Texas is already up big, and if FSU beats Louisville, it will be total chaos for the playoff selection committee. Roll Tide.
ReplyDeleteIn case it wasn't clear, Alabama is my vote of the week.
DeleteWill go with Iowa +21.5 and FSU -2.5 as well. Back with three NFL votes tomorrow.
DeleteCardinals
DeleteNiners ..... and ....
DeleteJoe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns
Also, the selection committee should be ashamed of itself for keeping FSU out.
Bama +5.5 over Georgia
ReplyDeleteFSU -2.5 over Louisville
Jets +1.5 over Falcons
DeleteTitans +1.5 over Colts
Browns +3.5 over Rams
Essay: 49ers -2.5 over Eagles
I've been picking against the Eagles (and mostly losing) all year, so let's double down. I remain convinced that Philly will peak early this season and ultimately fizzle out. The question, of course, is when we will first see signs of the fizzling out. To me, this week seems like a good bet. The 49ers are on a roll, having dominated three straight games. Yes, they had a three-game losing streak in October, but that can be attributed to injuries to Deebo and CMC. And they haven't played since Thanksgiving and thus have had extra time to prepare for this NFC Championship rematch. Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off a near five-quarter game against the Bills and have been winning nailbiters seemingly every week. I expect them to be drained today and for the 49ers to get the best of them.
All play Bama and the points
ReplyDeleteEssay Chargers -5.5 over Patriots -- Mac Jones is officially on the bench, Bailey Zappe is being run up the flagpole to see who salutes, and I think this line being below a TD is unreasonable. The Chargers have been consistently snakebitten at the end of close games but that doesn't apply if it's not a close game. The Pats just scored 6 points against the Giants and it's not all the QB's fault.
DeleteAlso Lions -4.5 over Saints
Broncos +3.5 over Texans
Dolphins -9.5 over Commanders
Colts -1.5 over Titans
Cowboys (L)
ReplyDeleteGeorgia (L)
Panthers 5.5 over TB
Browns 3.5 over Rams
Texans -3.5 over Broncos
Essay: 49ers -2.5 over Philly
When Vegas shouts to me, I listen. On paper, there’s no reason why the 10-1 Eagles, playing at home versus a 49ers team traveling East across the country, should be underdogs, no? Not so fast, my friends. Niners have a huge rest advantage (Eagles defense played Sunday late afternoon game into overtime) and are humming on all cylinders. Pencil this one in as a “schedule loss” for the NFC champs, who drop the rematch from last year’s title game.
49ers -2.5
ReplyDeleteBroncos +3.5
Titans +1.5
Browns +3.5
Delete