Cheddar Bay Week 12: Eagles (+2.5) at Chiefs (MNF)
Oooooh yeah! We're in KC this week for a Monday Night Super Bowl rematch.
The early-week MACtion lines, per Scores and Odds, are:
Tues:
Akron +3.5 @ Akron
Toledo -9.5 @ Bowling Green
Toledo -9.5 @ Bowling Green
Throw out the record books and pass the peace pipe it's time for the Black Swamp showdown. BGSU +9.5 over Toledo for a single to get my football voting weekend off to a great start.
ReplyDeleteIt's Large Rodent Saturday folks: Gophers +27.5 (over OSU) and Beavers +1.5 (over Washington) for a point each.
DeleteFeels like a day where there are a lot of obvious "squares v. sharps" picks on the board, NFL-wise, which doesn't always turn out so hot for the sharps but I guess we'll see and I guess I will just default by riding or dying with DTR and the Browns today. Starting quarterbacks and Pro Bowlers dropping like flies all over the AFC North; still don't see a unit in the NFL that's as inspiring as the Browns defense which should by all rights unleash hell today. Browns stadium should be a madhouse and Kevin and the gang have had a week to get ready so enough of these garbage Steelers getting help from the refs to win games they have no business winning. Browns -1.5.
DeleteWill also go with Bears +7.5 and Chiefs -2.5 for the All Play. Happy Sunday and go Browns!
I came here to be the first vote for BGSU and found frowns beat me to it. Too late for an essay but will take them for 1
ReplyDeleteMiami O -8.5
DeleteLouisiana +16.5 v Troy
DeleteLouisiana Tech +8.5
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DeleteEagles +2.5
DeleteBack to an old voting standard-betting on Vegas avoiding statistical trends, one of which is 5 or more data points in a row. The Bills have not covered in 6 games, not since October 1st. Despite >70% of the money and >50% of the bets on the Jets this week, the line has essentially stayed at 7, meaning Vegas bookmakers think the Bills are the sure thing. Okay, the Jets did beat them earlier this year in a bit of a surprise upset, but they also had Aaron Rodgers for at least part of the game and then the whole motivation of winning for your fallen comrade thing to help them through the overtime win. Despite a lackluster record, the Bills average scoring margin is 4th best out of all NFL teams at +7.8 while the Jets are 24th at -3.1. Bills outrank the Jets in pretty much every offensive stat and aren’t far off in stats that the Jets are ahead (does it matter if you have an average half yard more on a punt return when your red zone scoring percent is the worst in the league at 22.73% compared to the Bills 3rd best in the league 70.24%?) Not that I am big the universe sending me a sign and maybe coincidence but our au pair just started dating an Akron U student and he showed up yesterday to pick her up wearing a Bills hat and a Buffalo University shirt. Given this is the last weekend before the winter holiday craziness from now until the end of the year and I can watch the game without major competing obligations, I am making Bills -7 my POTY.
Delete1. Bengals +3.5 @ Ravens
ReplyDeleteGlad Zac Taylor didn't disclose Joey B's injury so I could lose a biscuit on a week with so many juicy games.
Delete2. Browns -1.5 v. Steelers
3. Georgia -10.5 @ Tennessee
4. Oregon St. -1.5 v. Washington
AP. Eagles +2.5 @ Chiefs: When in doubt, take points.
E. James Madison -9.5 v. Appalachian St.
Gameday is in town for the first time ever since the move to FBS. The team continues to have an enemy in the NCAA. And it's a down year for our friends from Boone. James Madison is simply too much and this spotlight game too meaningful. They will easily handle the Mountaineers and the Dukes will continue to embarrass the suits in Indianapolis.
ravens -3.5
ReplyDeletecoastal carolina -3.5
Deletelouisville -1.5
lions -7.5 essay
vikings +2.5
chiefs -2.5 ap
the bears have beaten the panthers, raiders and commanders. not a parade of honor. these teams are only proud they're better than the patriots. (not a source of pride) the lions, 7-2, 6w in the last 7 games, and jared goff are a surging team. watch for rookie running back gibbs. lions offense has talented receivers and now a strong run option. justin fields has some phoney performances against mediocre defenses. (raiders)
Deletethe lion's "d" is a force. fields has no chance. give me detroit -7.5
hometeam
Ravens -3.5 for a point
ReplyDeleteOregon State -1.5 over Washington
DeleteLIberty -27.5
ReplyDeleteWashington Huskies +1.5
LA Rams +1
Jacksonville -7
AP - Philly +2.5
Essay - Detroit -7.5 over Chicago
Going with the Lions, who have handled their business against lesser teams this year. Dan Campbell's squad is starting to play tough defense and the offense has been both productive and consistent all season long. I'm not concerned about Justin Fields' return (although I do think he's been criminally misused over his short career). Anyway, I like the Lions' 6-1 ATS mark as a favorite and 3-0 as an away favorite. Another win here and the Lions get closer to sealing their division in a few weeks.
Buck: After a brief holdout, we are glad to welcome you back to the broadcast booth. I'm Joe Buck, and sitting next to me is the man I witnessed eating three Steak In A Sack orders in a row, Troy Aikman. Well, Troy, now that we're back, we don't have to eat on a budget. Let's order some Mayport shrimp.
ReplyDeleteTroy: You're absolutely right, Joe.
Louisville -1.5 (over Miami)
Steelers +1.5 (over Browns)
Bears +7.5 (over Lions)
Bills -7 (over Jets)
Vikings +2.5 (over Broncos)
ALL PLAY & ESSAY: Eagles +2.5 (over Chiefs)
Buck: I can't think of a better matchup to come back to than the rematch of last year's Super Bowl. This may be the best Monday Night Football matchup I can remember.
Troy: Yeah, I wouldn't want to miss this one, Joe. You don't need Taylor Swift to boost these ratings, but I'd be willing to bet this is the most watched regular season game in history.
Buck: Unfortunately for us, that bet is not on the table. Who do you have winning this game?
Troy: Well, it's tempting to pick the Chiefs when they have a slight edge at the most important spots: quarterback, coaching, coming out of a bye week, and even the home field advantage. But the Chiefs fatal flaw is their receiving, and they're missing exactly what you need to attack the Eagles' weak spots. I see that Eagles offensive line taking control of this game.
AP: Chiefs -2.5
ReplyDeleteJames Madison -9.5
Georgia -10.5
Iowa State +7.5
Utah -1.5
ESSAY: Lions -7.5
The Detroit Lions are having a breakout season and this should continue against the Chicago Bears this weekend due to several key factors. Firstly, the Lions have demonstrated significant improvement on the offensive side of the ball. They're using a diverse set of scoring options. The Lions' defense has shown resilience, with notable performance from Aidan Hutchinson. On the other hand, the Chicago Bears have struggled with consistency, particularly on offense. Their QB position is lacking, their play design unimaginative and the execution generally uninspired. I see the Lions covering easily at home.
stanford +6.5 vs cal
ReplyDeletegast +31.5 at lsu
raiders +12.5 at dolphins
jets +7 at bills
***bears +7.5 at lions
chiefs -2.5 vs eagles
Ohio State -27.5 over Minnesota
ReplyDeleteSteelers +1.5 over Browns
DeleteBucs +11.5 over 49ers
Bills -7 over Jets
Broncos -2.5 over Vikings
Essay/AP to come.
Essay: Chiefs -2.5 over Eagles
DeleteAndy Reid fresh off a bye week rarely disappoints, and he'll have extra juice tonight against the franchise that fired him, just as he did in the Super Bowl. Speaking of the Super Bowl: I picked the Chiefs in that game on account of their having Patrick Mahomes, and that turned out to be a wise choice; I see no reason to approach tonight's game any differently. Moreover, having bet the Eagles under 11.5 wins in the preseason, I continue to cling to my belief that they'll eventually regress this year, even if that hasn't yet been the case. If a Philly regression is coming, it'll happen now: their next five games are against the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Cowboys, and Seahawks. Gimme the Chiefs at home tonight.
Essay: Tennessee Volunteers: After much success backing this clown show last week I'll head right back to them. Tenny was dreadful last week and physically dominated. It was a flat spot though in a low meaning game with this huge one on deck at home. At this point it is clearly their biggest game of the year. Georgia has been surging but still has some questions on defense. Tenny D is probably slightly undervalued and if they can stifle Georgia a bit this is a generous number. On the other hand, they could get smoked by 40.
ReplyDeleteOthers:
Rams
Browns
UCLA
Illinois
All play: Chiefs
Iowa -3.5
ReplyDeleteRutgers +20.5
Maryland +19.5 - essay
USC -6.5
Eagles +2.5
Vikings +2.5
Last week Michigan was the pick for the galvanization factor, and I think the reverse happens here. Michigan has had an unbelievably deflating 48 hours thanks to Uncle T, Chris Partridge, and their failure of their "rile everyone up about a TRO hearing you have no hope of winning" legal strategy, so I think they'll have tremendous difficulty covering a three score spread on the road. Maryland is ass, don't put in the paper that I think Maryland is good, but they probably keep it to a 10-14 point diff while Michigan just tries to keep their heads down, run the ball 40 times to avoid the possibility of mistakes, and go home with a W.
Virginia +3.5
ReplyDeleteUNLV +3
Texas -7.5
Nebraska +5.5 (Essay)
AP: Eagles +2.5
Titans +7
A good week last week, marred by an essay miss. Time to improve the essay win rate, with this week’s contender Nebraska. The program has been inconsistent over the past several seasons. On the other side of the ball, Wisconsin has long been a solid team, routinely stomping over Big 10 opponents of a lesser tier. Not so much anymore, and they’re on a losing streak. A casual fan likely assumes Wisconsin is still a force to be reckoned with, much like casual fans likely thought highly of Nebraska until a few years ago when the “Nebraska is terrible” news sunk in. Against recent common and peer opponents Nebraska has been doing better than Wisconsin. I’m certain there’s more detailed ways to analyze, but I have to do the pre Thanksgiving shopping and don’t have more time. So 3 cheddars on the Huskers.
Arizona Wildcats
ReplyDeleteFlorida
Oregon State
Kentucky Wildcats
Bills
DeleteGeorgia -10.5 to Tenneesee
ReplyDeleteOregon -23.5 to ASU
DeleteBoise State -3.5 to USU
Essay
ReplyDeleteWashington +1.5 to Oregon State
Essay: Washington has beatean USC, Utah, and Oregon. Oregon State is not a trap game, and they will be ready.
DeleteWashington should run the ball more, slow down the game, and create long ball opportunities a few times a game.
They'll likely be down for some/most of the game, but i like the patience they'll have to turn in a late game winning drive
Vikings +25. to the Broncos
DeleteAll Play: Chiefs -2.5 to the Birds
College game Oregon -a bunch over Arizona State
ReplyDeleteEssay Cowboys -10.5 over Panthers -- maybe the squarest of the square picks but I still think this number is too low. Dallas is willing and able to run up the score on bad teams (albeit mostly the Giants). In the last few weeks Carolina has lost by at least two TDs to the Lions, Dolphins, and (yikes) Colts. #5 vs #31 in DVOA. Calling for this to not be the week that Bryce Young puts it all together.
DeleteAlso an Upset Sunday-guaranteeing passel of favorites:
DeleteChargers -3 over Packers
Lions -7.5 over Bears
Commanders -9.5 over Giants
and Eagles +2.5 over Chiefs in the All Play
Oregon State - 1.5
ReplyDeleteIowa State +7.5
Jets + 7
DeleteSeahawks - 1
Bucs +11.5
Oh boy trying to avoid my first ever lobsterita with an essay on the Chiefs -2.5
DeleteI don't have any deep info here. Both of these teams are on TV every week, millions of folks watched the super bowl. I think my mom knows the basics of how Philly's offense works. I'm just putting faith in the home team here and Andy Reid's success against his former employer. And the Chiefs are coming off a bye week. Enjoy.
Ravens (W)
ReplyDeleteOregon St (L)
Browns -1.5 over Pit
Dolphins -12.5 over Raiders
Panthers 10.5 over Dallas
Essay: Cardinals +4.5 over Texans
I love CJ Stroud, and he is having the best rookie season a QB has had since Andrew Luck. But this is too big a number in a big letdown spot. Kyler Murray is going to shred the Texans depleted defense and keep this one close.
Week 13 EMU +5.5 for the last Midweek maction of the year
ReplyDeleteWe walk these streets at night (Tuesday night). We go where (EMU) Eagles dare (+5.5, for one point, to get my football voting week off to a great start)
ReplyDelete