Cheddar Bay Week 11 (11/11 Veteran's Edition): Michigan -4.5 at State Penn (Big Noon Saturday)
We're in Happy Valley this week where it's Connor Stalions' legal team's time to sink or swim. Probably Lyin' favored by 4.5 over the Nittany Lions on Saturday at Noon.
College lines are here, pro lines are here, and as always the Exec Comm, wherever it is, is hoping everyone's football voting weekend gets off to a great start.
So the last time I tried to pull a fast one on old Agnes in here I was hoisted by my own petard. But that was a Tuesday and today, folks, is Thursday. Not only that, it’s a Thursday following a Tuesday on which Agnes fell chasing some Directional Michigan fools gold. If this isn’t my chance to pounce again I don’t know what is and guess who’s playing tonight folks, the Panthers. I doubt I could say it any better than the great poet Janet Jackson so I won’t try:
ReplyDelete“Black cat, nine lives, short days, long nights, Living on the edge, not afraid to die.”
Truer words have never been spoken.
I will just add that all the “LOL how could the Panthers have picked Bryce Young over Marcus Stroud" hype has got to be overbought at this point.
Too bad I already used my POTY. Black cats +3 over Agent Bagent’s Bears for my vote of the week and the table-turning on old Agnes that everyone has been waiting for.
Ahem *C.J.* Stroud
DeleteState Penn in the all play
DeleteMizzou over Life Champs
UGA over Miss
Sorry please strike UGA and give me Michigan State +31.5 over tOSU instead.
DeleteJeez thanks Spartans. Browns and Raiders to round out my slate please and thanks.
DeletePut me in for a Bears +3 tonight.
ReplyDeleteI copied it as Bears +3 because the post erroneously stated the line was Panthers -3, but I was aware the line was actually Bears -3 and I will take my push.
DeleteThank you Residue Dogs
DeleteUNLV -5.5
ReplyDeleteOklahoma St. -2.5
Pittsburgh NFL -3
Las Vegas +1
AP - Michigan -4.5
Essay - Dallas -17.5
17.5 points are a lot but the Giants are down to their third-string Quarterback, no one likes the Head Coach and the Cowboys' defense has been terrific at home. Further, I'll take the Cowboys' 5-1 ATS as a Favorite, 3-0 at Home and 2-0 After a Loss. After a close loss to the 8-1 Eagles (who - if I'm fortunate enough to make the Cheddar playoffs, I cannot wait to bet against...but that's hopefully for another time), the Cowboys should be fired up to get an easy win at home.
Colts -1.5
ReplyDeleteWyoming +5.5
Vanderbilt +13.5
:( essay CMU loss and NIU loss
Michigan -4.5
Delete1. Chargers +3 v. Lions
ReplyDelete2. Arkansas -2.5 v. Auburn
3. Alabama -10.5 @ Kentucky
4. Oklahoma St. -2.5 @ UCF
5. Bills -7 v. Broncos
E/AP: Michigan -4.5 @ Penn St.
Nothing would make me happier than to lose this bet. It would be demoralizing for "Michigan Man". It would essentially prove that Michigan's cheating was effective, something I firmly believe after last November. And it would be good for James Franklin to remain as a second tier coach in State College.
But I don't see how Nits scores enough to win this game, let alone keep it that close. This is the same offense that got tested by Indiana, admittedly in a body blow game following their loss in Columbus. Penn St's defense and the hostile crowd will test Michigan's coaches ability to call a real game without Connor Stalions' special skills. But Michigan's team is too talented and they'll win this by probably 2 scores.
It doesn't change the fact that Michigan cheated.
michigan -4.5
ReplyDeleteapp state +2.5
georgia -10.5
steelers -3
49 ers -3
patriots +1.5 essay
the patriots organization has hit an iceberg and is sinking fast. no one is above humiliating commentary; not bill belichick, not the krafts, not the staff and certainly not the players. the irony is that belichick has made a career of selecting low cost (read: unskilled or cashed) players and "coaching them up". these are the players who have turned on him, hard. leading the call for belichick to go. however, this morning at the frankfurt press conference the coach was loose, agreeable and 1 tick short of happy. something is up. this game will be a dog (woooof) but the patriots are just dysfunctional enough to take the win and further confuse us. never mind draft picks, let's chase shula's record. give me the pats +1.5
hometeam
Michigan -4.5 (AP)
ReplyDeleteVirginia Tech -1.5
Auburn +2.5
Houston -2.5 (Essay)
Bucs - 1.5
Vikings +3
Last week was a case of one too many trips to the well with the plan of taking fliers on large lines. Also I’m getting vertigo from plummeting in the standings so quickly. Houston is going against a Bearcats team that’s on a 7 game slide, playing at home, and overall puts up better stats. Houston comes up ahead when evaluating against recent common opponents, having beaten Baylor on the road while Cincinnati lost to Baylor at home. It should be a win opportunity for Houston, and Assuming a Cougars win it should be by more than a field goal.
All play: Penn State +4.5
ReplyDeletePurdue -1.5
Washington -8.5 (essay)
Georgia -10.5
Essay: Washington -8.5.
DeleteSo, living in Small Lake City I have been sucked in the UofU vibes a few times.
This weekend is NOT one of them.
The 'pig farmer' is not the problem. The defense is. Peni$ is going to have his heisman statement game - throw for 6 TDs and come out with a 50 burger against Utah, who by the way- will score too- but just in the 30's.
Utah is a great story, Whittingham is a great coach, but tomorrow is not their day.
Colts -1.5
DeleteBengals 06.5
Bengals -6.5 (you get it)
DeleteEssay: Michigan -4.5 over PSU
ReplyDeleteWhile I've enjoyed much schadenfreude from watching the Connor Stalions scandal unfold, I have no illusions about its likely effect on the field: Michigan will play with the world's biggest chip on its shoulder, motivated to prove that it didn't need a plant on Central Michigan's sideline to run through its laughably weak 2023 schedule. This is exactly what happened with the post-Spygate and -Deflategate Patriots, and although I'm not convinced that the extra motivation will carry Michigan to a win over OSU in a couple weeks, it will lead to a spread-covering victory in State College today. JJ McCarthy & Co. will surely warmup in their "Free Harbaugh" regalia, and I will vomit. But PSU's offense is trash, and Michigan will need only a few touchdowns to ensure a cover. Sign me up for the Wolverines.
Other picks:
Michigan State +31.5 over Ohio State
Ole Miss +10.5 over Georgia
Patriots +1.5 over Colts
Chargers +3 over Lions
Raiders +1 over Jets
I like that Ole Miss pick. Was tempted. I think Georgia is vulnerable and Lane can coach up some points.
DeleteAP: Penn State +4.5
ReplyDeleteOklahoma State -2.5
Minnesota +1.5
Kansas -3.5
Falcons -1.5 (ESSAY)
Raiders +1
If Cheddar Bay has taught me one thing, the Pattakos childrens' college fund is largely supported by my inability to pick football games correctly. When the Falcons selected Texas' Bijan Robinson at #8 overall, the message was that they were going to grind teams into submission with a two-headed monster of him and Tyler Allgeier. And yet, Arthur Smith has only given Bijan one carry inside the 5-yard-line all season. Some of the coaching malpractice, excused as some homage to advanced metrics, is just criminal. PRO TIP: When you have a 6', 220 lb guy that moves like a 5'9" 180 lb guy...give him the f***ing football. BONUS PRO TIP: When the broadcast frequently cuts away to the coach on the sidelines, the more they hide their mouth behind that play sheet, the more lost they are.
The Cardinals boast one of the weakest run defenses in football. That's coupled with the return of Cryler Murray, the whiniest QB in the history of Oklahoma football, who inspired such hits as Sam Ehlinger's "Just Take the 'L' P***y". He wasn't talking about the train in Chicago.
I'll gladly give Cryler the 1.5 pts and wait for his Graco car seat endorsement to come through.
Essay: Tennessee Volunteers - Mizzou has been super tough this year. They've got a good scheme, have a tough physical defense, and are a few plays away from being undefeated. Last week, they were toe to toe AT georgia on national tv. Everyone knows they are good and they have been super spunky as a dog. This, though, is a much less good spot. Home game, short home dog, off emotional highs, vs an opponent whose season was derailed a while back and has time to right itself and its objectives. Will try the Vols here on what looks like a tough board overall.
ReplyDeleteOthers:
Kentucky
Purdue
Michigan (All play)
Saints
Falcons
um -4.5 at psu
ReplyDelete***uk +10.5 vs bama
ku -3.5 vs ttu
uga -10.5 vs olemiss
colts -1.5 vs pats
texans +6.5 at bengals
last time bama played uk it was 63-3. that was the team with najee harris and devonta smith and two nfl starting qbs and christian barmore and patrick surtain. six first round pick although admittedly two were mac jones and alex leatherwood.
last time bama was in lexington it was mccarron and cj moseley and yeldon and drake and AMARI COOPER! 48-7.
uk won an overtime game against a 4-7 bama team in 97 at home. check it out: it was the duel between TIM COUCH AND FREDDIE KITTENS!
i just want to be in on the biggest win ever in lexington. gonna say it out loud, there is nothing to like about uk in this game. theyre playing B- ball against a C- schedule. i do, however, think this is a poor vintage of tide and prone to both be riding high after the lsu throttling and looking ahead to the annual chattanooga game.
Penn State 4.5
ReplyDeleteBears -3
ReplyDeleteMichigan -4.5
Indiana +6.5
DeleteIowa -1.5
Chargers +3
DeleteBills -7 essay
Really wish I hadn't led the corrupt machinations of the B1G convince me away from a planned Michigan POTY. But I feel pretty strongly that the Bills have this one. Broncos are getting respect for their back to back wins and getting over on the Chiefs before the bye, but they're awful on the road. This is also an application of the "up-down" theory of picking NFL games. Prime opportunity for complacency for Denver, with the Bills being extremely motivated to avenge last week's loss to Cinci. I would also note that Denver was +4 in the TO margin when they beat the Chiefs, and that's hardly a sustainable result. Double-digit win coming in prime time.
Penn State
ReplyDeleteBrowns +6.5
DeleteBengals -6.5
Jags +3
Raiders +1
DeleteMichigan
ReplyDeleteOle Miss
MSU
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteBills
DeleteRavens
All play Michigan
ReplyDeleteSaints -3 over Vikings
DeleteSteelers -3 over Packers
Titans +1.5 over Bucs
Seahawks -6.5 over Commanders
DeleteEssay Lions -3 over Chargers -- Lions coming off their bye at #4 in DVOA, Chargers on a short week after a lackluster offensive performance against the Jets that they still got away with because it was the Jets. If the correct Lions team shows up then three points doesn't seem overly ambitious. And if the Lions team that got manhandled by the Ravens shows up... well, at least it won't be suspenseful.
Ravens -6.5
ReplyDeleteTexans +6.5
Giants +17.5
Raiders +1
Broncos +7
Broncos +7
DeleteSometimes those Broncos look right at ya. Right into your eyes. And the thing about a Bronco is he’s got lifeless eyes. Black eyes. Like a doll’s eyes. When he comes at ya, he doesn’t even seem to be livin’… ’til he stomps on ya, and those black eyes roll over white and then… ah, then you hear that terrible high-pitched screamin’. The field turns orange, and despite all your poundin’ and your hollerin’ those Broncos come in and… they rip you to pieces. You know by the end of that first quarter, lost a hundred men. I don’t know how many Broncos there were, maybe a thousand. I'll never put on a helmet again.
PSU (L)
ReplyDeleteBrowns 6.5 over Ravens
Cards 1.5 over ATL
Saints -3 over Vikings
Seahawks -6 over Washington
Essay: Raiders over Jets
This is a gross play as far as essays go. But I am drinking the Antonio Pierce kool-aid. That organization has life again, finally, after being choked out by Josh McDaniels. Zack Wilson is putrid, and the Jets’ D can’t continue to bail him out. Like the Raiders to keep the train moving.