Cheddar Bay Week 10: LSU +3 at Alabama (7:45 PM Saturday)
Exec. Comm. considered but rejected "Raiders vs. Themselves" as it was hard to find consensus on a line, so we are off to Tuscaloosa. Here are the college lines and the pro lines and the standings and don't forget to set your clocks back (offer may not apply to Indiana residents).
steelers -3
ReplyDeletehometeam
coastal carolina -1.5
Deleteiowa -5.5
alabama -3
chiefs -1.5
jets +3.5 essay
the myopic crusade to reveal bill belichick as fraudulent continues. unmask him like a scoobydo villian. It would be swell to have confidence tonight in the bills - but an honest evaluation insists burrow and the bengals are better. the dolphins choked in deutschland heute morgen. the jests need to display afc east dominance this week. and im here for it. zach wilson has elevated, this is his moment. aaron rodgers has given the previously shaky qb confidence. hc saleh has been a cool customer this season when the jets have stumbled. value add. oc hackett was rodgers' choice - so he has a vested interest in showcasing this offense til the starter returns. (could happen). the jets are at home, home dog on mnf. give me the jets +3.5
Deletehometeam
This was posted in last week's thread, but wanted to put it here for more visibility.
ReplyDeleteTitans +3 @ Steelers
Last week's deserved loss/bad beat (that game was weird) has allowed me to stop essaying the all-play (I make the rules, I can change them whenever I need), and not a minute too soon because I haven't watched a single snap of LSU this year.
DeleteAP. Alabama -3 v. LSU
2. Nebraska -3 @ Michigan St.
3. Duke -6.5 v. Wake Forest
4. Saints -7 v. Bears
E. Notre Dame -3 @ Clemson
Notre Dame has started to put things together. After going 2-2 over a brutal end of September/early October with 4 strait huge night games, they've started rolling the last few weeks thumping USC and Pitt. Clemson is a different challenge for the Domers. They need this game like blood. Coach Swinney is not dealing with the adversity of 4-4 well as they had the letdown in a letdown/look-ahead situation and calling out fans on his call-in show (or was that a message to some noisy boosters?). Either way this is quite the challenge for ND. But handsome quarterback Sam Hartman and hard-running Audric Estime are humming behind a very physical offensive line. The hostile crowd in South Carolina could be a problem, but if the Irish can whether the storm early, the problem will be the Tigers. When that happens, Notre Dame wins this comfortably. And an under .500 Dabo gives me double for my PLAY OF THE YEAR!
Duke was not a valid pick as i somehow missed the game had been played and i was still in the wrong side of it. 🤦♂️ Par for this week really. Back soon with a valid pick.
DeleteReplacement pick
Delete2. Browns -8.5 v. Cardinals
Buck: Welcome back to Jacksonville, where we get to enjoy football on a modestly sized flatscreen covered in crayon marks. I'm Joe Buck, and joining me again after a brief holdout is Troy Aikman. Good to have you back, partner.
ReplyDeleteTroy: Good to be back. I didn't want to watch Browns/Seahawks anyways.
Buck: You didn't miss much. Some guy named Jake Bobo scored a touchdown.
Troy: That's what we called off brand products back home. No one knows what orange drink means, but Bobo Sunny D makes it very clear.
ALL PLAY: Alabama -3 (over LSU)
Cardinals +8.5 (over Browns)
Rams +3 (over Packers)
Eagles -3 (over Eagles)
Bengals -1.5 (over Bills)
ESSAY: Chiefs -1.5 (over Dolphins)
Buck: Troy, did you know they're installing new sod at the stadium in Frankfurt, Germany for this game?
Troy: I thought this was gonna be played at Arrowhead, so, yeah, that's news to me, Joe. I think those boys over there know how soccer players treat a field, but they still have no idea how to handle football. I've heard reports of a lot of slipping and sliding in the last game in Munich.
Buck: Those boys in Germany are big time fans of American football going back many years. They'll be expecting a lot of scores in this game.
Troy: Well, I'd take the under if I could. I can't overstate this enough: when your running backs need to plant their foot, make one cut, and find the hole in the Dolphins' scheme, you need confidence in that cut. If the Dolphins are forced to pass the ball, I think Chris Jones will eat up that offensive line, and this isn't the fastest track for Tyreek Hill to run on. That's a bad combo. I'll give up a point and a half to take the Chiefs, easily.
That should be Eagles over Cowboys, if it wasn't clear
DeleteSince serial predator Deshaun Watson has been announced as the starter, I want to remove my Cardinals bet and replace it with:
DeleteVikings +3.5 (over Falcons)
Bama -3
ReplyDeleteFlorida -4.5 (Graham Mertz redemption)
Minnesota -1.5 - essay
Falcons -3.5
Browns -8.5
Patriots -3
Rare pajamas Fleck essay coming in hot with some odd line movement. This one opened at Minny -3, and apparently money on the Illinois has pushed it down to 1.5. Minny isn't good but I don't see the case of Illinois here. Bert's doing the best he can with his schemes, but the Illini just get killed at the point of attack every play. They've only been able to compensate against lesser competition, but at 3-5 obviously that's not very often for Illinois. Last week Minny ground MSU, a team that is more solid in the trenches, into a fine paste in the second half. To give you an idea of what they were able to do, Minny turned to a running back with 15 career carries and he went off for 204 yards on 40 carries with 2 TDs on the MSU defense. Illinois is also just a team that makes loads of mistakes and gets no explosive plays.
Bama - 3 to LSU (all play)
ReplyDeleteWashington -3 to USC
Notre Dame -3 to Clemson
Chiefs -1.5 to Dolphins
Bengals -1.5 to Bills
Eagles -3 to Cowboys (essay)
Baltimore -5.5
ReplyDeleteCarolina +2.5
U Conn +35.5
Utah -11.5
AP - LSU +3
Essay - Cincy -1.5
While I hate making narrative picks, this one is just too good to pass up. Let's call this the Demar Hamlin Revenge Game for the Bengals. I feel the Bengals will never admit it, but they are still upset over having a sure win cancelled late last year when Hamlin had his cardiac arrest. Further, the Bengals are doing their typical Bengals thing, where they look awful and then snap off a two month winning streak. Joe Burrow is healthy, the defense is strong again and most importantly, the Bills are maybe the most mercurial good team in the league. Just look at their win pattern this year. L-W-W-W-L-W-L-W. The Bills are a pedestrian 3-5 ATS and 2-2 after a win. I'll go with Cincy.
All-play: Bama -3
ReplyDeleteNotre Dame -3
Oklahoma State +5.5
BYU +12.5
Rams +3
ESSAY: Ole Miss -3
Have I told you about Lane Kiffin and the fact that Texas A&M has not been able to come close to solving his offense? He poses problems at your weakness, and the aggy has a lot more weaknesses than what is apparent between the white lines. They have a coach who they owe some $75 million to who can't coach his way out of a paper bag...mostly because all of those bags have been dropped to convince players to go to College Station. When your hire to salvage your tenure is Bobby "I never met a secretary I wouldn't let ride on my Harley" Petrino, who is the same "I left the Falcons mid-season without explanation or courtesy to the players" Bobby Petrino, all is not well. I'd gladly lay more because I think Lane is going to scorch them, kick them, and steal their lunch money.
Rutgers +18.5 over tOSU
ReplyDeleteMizzou +15.5 over UGA
Okie St. +5.5 over Sooners
LSU +3 over Bama
Somewhere in the Cheddar Bay archives, or what's been deleted of them, there is an essay about how the first time Agnes and I said "I love you" to each other was in the bowels of the Stadium formerly known as "Worst Energy" during what was either the Chudzinski or Pettine era (I am too lazy to look it up right now). It was her first Browns game, and we had spent all morning at two different tailgates, including with some current and former Cheddar Bay luminaries, one of whom's father made some delicious fried turkey that we feasted on that day. Once we'd gotten into the Stadium and were walking to our seats she said to me, "I'm having so much fun" and I turned to her, incredulous, "REALLY!?" And she said "yes" and I said "I love you!" and she said "I love you too." Talk about "finding love in a hopeless place." Anyway, from there we tried to make it to one game a year, until the Covid fiasco hit, and she hasn't been back since. Until today, folks! Yes, we are making our triumphant return to what is now much more properly officially titled Cleveland Browns Stadium. And I am here to promise that if the Browns lose to the Cards today it will be Bottlegate III. Glad to take the Cheddar discount for my essay, Browns -8.5.
DeleteAlso, Cowboys for my last one.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteMaryland +8.5 vs Penn St.
ReplyDeleteThis week on a damp and cloudy Saturday I developed the desire to vote on a game that it not between to bad teams-big change up from my regular routine. Maryland v Penn st has one of the biggest line movements this week and it may be that Maryland isn’t as bad as their recent record looks. 3 losses in a row is bad and they haven’t covered the spread once this year after a loss, which makes them and 2 others the only teams to be in that situations out of 133 FBS teams. They do have some things going for them 18th best at rushing defense, 29th best team at passing. Granted Penn state is the 11th best team at passing defense and 4th best at rushing defense, but their biggest wins were over non FBS Delaware (63 to 7), Iowa (31 to 0, Iowa is 102/133 in rushing and 131/133 in passing), West Virginia (38 to 15, WV is 111/133 in passing) plus 1-7 UMass (63 to 0).
Also take Browns -8.5 for 1 point (going to the game but don’t want to get essay emotion tangled up with enjoyment of outdoor sports)
LSU +3
Toledo win Tuesday and Titans loss Thursday
Airforce -18.5
DeleteBama
ReplyDeleteND
Arizona Wildcats
Nebraska
Bengals
DeleteChargers essay
DeleteI like Justin Herbert in this spot. Chargers have a poor record, against some very tough teams, and this is a must win spot for them. Long trip across the country, but I think they get the win and the cover on the basis of superior qb play.
ND -3 over Clemson
ReplyDeleteLSU +3 over Alabama
buff at toledo (loss)
ReplyDeletebama -3 vs lsu
ru +18.5 vs osu
buff at toledo (loss)
Deletebama -3 vs lsu (win)
ru +18.5 vs osu (loss)
commanders +3 at pats
saints -8.5 vs bears
browns -8.5 vs cards POTY
much i'd love to grab the cards and treat myself to an afternoon of beers and hate-tweeting stefanski -- and i really would -- i'm gonna change form and trust stefanski and deshaun weeden. "omg he was good in the titans game!" ok, that's one. full disclosure, i'm still looking forward to hate-tweeting on stefanski. but in this game it shouldn't matter because arizona will score zero points today. i actually think the cards' first start, rookie qb will be an upgrade over dobbs. (regretting trading dobbs has been one of browns twitter's colder takes this year in a sea of cold takes.) this matchup would be a hell of a lot more interesting if the cards started tommy tune instead of clayton tune. i am aware of the line move. i am aware that this is the overwhelming knockout pool pick for this week. i am prepared for watson to look like just a guy and for stefanski to call five wide and send everyone deep. but i'll ride with the defense and let's POTY this.
Right now I am kicking myself for not taking Rutgers.
ReplyDeleteAP: LSU +3 (Friends with Cajun roots are coming over, can’t not pick their alma mater)
UAB +2.5
Cal +24.5 (Essay)
Dolphins +1.5
Rams +3
Colts -2.5
I feel as if I could copy and paste last week’s essay, then do find and replace. Oregon is good, and Cal is ok, and will probably lose. This spot made sense early in the season when the Ducks were just stomping over everyone, but not now. Reverse applies to Cal, they seem to have adjusted a few things after early season beatings. So 3 cheddars on Cal to not get beaten as badly as the Vegas prognosticators think.
congrats on not taking rutgers.
DeleteAlabama -3 over LSU
ReplyDeleteFalcons -3.5 over Vikings
DeleteRams +3 over Packers
Colts -2.5 over Panthers
Bengals -1.5 over Bills
Essay: Browns -8.5 over Cardinals
Given the way this line has moved since Deshaun was announced as the Browns' starter, I can't pass up the chance to essay this game—even though I'm hardwired to assume the worst going into any Browns game, regardless of the opponent. Anyway, to the extent that it's possible for a 4-3 team to have a must-win game at this point in the season, this game qualifies as such for the Browns. They need to get to 5-3 simply because there's no way they're beating both the Ravens and the Steelers following this game. So the only realistic way for them to get to 6-4 is by taking care of business against the lowly Cardinals this week. And when it comes to the playoff race, the difference between 5-5 and 6-4 is enormous. The Browns will win easily today.
All Play LSU +3 over Alabama
ReplyDeleteRams +3 over Packers
DeleteFalcons -3.5 over Vikings
Dolphins +1.5 over Chiefs
Bengals -1.5 over Bills
Essay Browns -8.5 over Cardinals -- for mostly the same reasons as everybody else, namely one of the worst teams in the league suddenly switching to a rookie fifth-rounder at QB. This kind of thing usually goes poorly for me (I fondly recall essaying against Mike White's first Jets start in which he threw for what seemed like 700 yards) but at this stage it's not like I have any better ideas. The Browns have to be looking to make some kind of offensive statement today.
Quite possibly saved by my own incompetence as the Dolphins-Chiefs game was already happening when I wrote that. Sub Colts -2.5 over Panthers I guess.
DeleteLSU +3 vs Alabama
ReplyDeleteUSC +3 vs Washington
Essay: washington huskies. Washington was everyone's darling then went sleep walking the last two games against inferior opponents. This has definitely affected perception here as seeing a lot of interest in USC "getting points at home". Unfortunately USC is legit bad, cant stop anyone, and has looked disinterested and inconsistent on offense. Are they focused here? Is this really that much of a home advantage? Was early season Washington a mirage? I'm going buy low here and take Washington, like them sizably in this spot.
ReplyDeleteAdditional college:
LSU
Fresno St.
I was away from computer but emailed Pete these --
DeleteCowboys
Raiders
Bengals
Boise st
ReplyDeleteCommanders
DeleteRaiders -1.5
DeleteEagles -3
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteND (L)
ReplyDeleteLSU (L)
Bengals -1.5 over Buffalo
Eagles -3 over Dallas
Vikings 3.5 over Atlanta
PLAY OF THE YEAR: Browns -8.5 over Cardinals
Best not to overthink this one. The line has swelled to 13 (which I think is a bit high), but the Browns D has earned the respect it is getting. Rookie mid-round pick Clayton Tune making his first start on the road. This one should get ugly.
Midweek maction mid Michigan matchup CMU vs WMU
ReplyDeleteDonbest gives them pretty even stats- CMU score about 3 points less on average but also allows 3 points fewer. WMU is better at 1st and 4th quarter scoring and CMU is better at 2nd and 3rd. CMU gets more yards per kickoff return and WMU gets more on punt return. WMU has a much better record against the spread so it’s likely a line will be set to make both teams closer to the 50% mark. The big motivation for a CMU win is likely this is their last chance for bowl eligibility as they are currently 5-4 and their last 2 games are against Toledo and OU. I was at a work meeting in DC and this women told me her daughter went to CMU for college and I said “Central Michigan?” And she looked at my like I was crazy and said”no, Carnegie Mellon.” Fun fact: Central Michigan is 8 years older than Carnegie Mellon. Here’s to a win for the original CMU (but I’ll take the + 3 cover)
Also NIU-9.5 (they are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite)
Delete