Cheddar Bay Thanksgiving (Week 13): Ohio State +3.5 at Michigan
Maybe one of these years this game will again not warrant All-Play status but this of course is no such year.
The NCAA lines are here; The NFL lines are here; And the Executive Committee is as grateful as ever for the fine football-voting fellowship here on Cheddar Bay and hopes everyone has a great Thanksgiving holiday and extended football-voting weekend.
Fellas, it's here. The Lions, favored by 7.5 over the Packers, is the Residue Dogs Pick of the Year.
ReplyDeleteWow
DeletePackers don't even realize what kind of destruction awaits them. This year the Lions exorcise all the Thanksgiving demons and coronate themselves as 9-2 Super Bowl contenders. Packers are limping in with a huge injury list, while the Lions are missing only G Jonah Jackson. And don't forget what the Lions did to these bums up in Green Bay on another Thursday tilt. Monty and Gibbs will be force feeding that Packers D all the turkey, gravy, and stuffing they can handle, and just like your uncle who can't hold his liquor, they'll be asleep by the end of the 3rd Q.
DeleteHey, I think my account got hacked by a real football bozo who made an unauthorized POTY essay pick.
DeleteI'll take SF -7 tonight, should have a few minutes before kick.
Dolphins -9.5
DeleteOSU +3.5
MSU +20.5
Florida +6.5
Packers 7.5 over Lions
ReplyDeleteNiners -7 over Seattle
Buckeyes 3.5 over M
I'll take Green Bay and the 49ers on Thanksgiving. Back with the rest.
ReplyDeletelions -7.5
ReplyDeletedolphins -9.5 essay
steelers -1.5
osu +3.5 ap
maryland -1.5
san jose st +2.5
local sports talk radio contends the dolphins are a fraud team because they beat up on weak teams. well, the jets are in freefall. starting at qb is third string tim boyle. the jets average 15.0 points per game. though miami failed to cover last week they average 30.5 points per game and have a record earlier this season of running up points. (giants, panthers, broncos) mild mannered coach mike mcdaniel seems to enjoy big numbers.
Deletegive me the dolphins - 9.5
hometeam
Ohio State +3.5
ReplyDeleteBoston College +9.5 (Essay)
TCU +9.5
Tulane -3.5
UMass +2.5
NY Giants +3.5
Boston College, on Chestnut Hill, has a statue in front of Doug Flutie launching the miracle Hail Mary. It's a nice piece of sculpture; somehow both understated and exciting. The fans at BC are almost on top of the sidelines and there will be no shortage of Massholes directing sophomoric taunts at the Miami team and coaches. BC has put together a quietly competent year, playing some good teams quite close. Miami has perhaps the most uninspiring coach in America after Jimbo Fi-- what's that? They fired him? -- ok, well, the most uninspiring coach in America, then.
Look for BC to ride a true homefield advantage, a running game, and solid defense to a Thanksgiving weekend win and a seventh win. Tip O'Neill would approve. Bostonians will get wicked pissed.
Nice
Delete9ers -7 to the Seahawks
ReplyDeleteDolphins -9.5 to the Jets
Oregon -13.5 to Oregon State
Purdue -3.5 to Indiana
Essay: Texas -13.5 to Texas Tech
All play: Michigan -3.5 to Ohio State
Essay: Texas -13.5
ReplyDeleteRevenge game for Sark.
Texas can handle the run (top 5 run defense in the country) and the Red Raiders of old are not around.
Texas hasn't looked great in the last few games, but I feel like that get it right this game and actually roll with a huge offensive game, scoring in the high 40s, leaving no doubt they are the best team in the Big12, and likely becoming a 'for sure CFP' team.
Buck: Welcome back to the broadcast booth, tied for most Cheddar Bay biscuits around. I'm Joe Buck, and it's ironic that I'm alongside the QB with the lowest winning percentage in Cowboys history among 100 game starters, Troy Aikman. Troy, the Steelers and specifically Kenny Pickett ruined our shot at a LOBSTERFEST. At least it got Matt Canada fired.
ReplyDeleteTroy: Yeah, well, stay humble, because we've had to shake off a couple of single win weeks, too. At least we've never needed a push to save us from a Virgin Lobsterita. Now that I think about it, we need a name resembling the opposite of an Admiral's Feast for a half-point week. I got sick from Shrimp Nachos one time; maybe that could work.
Buck: Don't forget the recent scandal where Red Lobster couldn't deliver on every Mother's Day Special. A half-point week is a score only a mother could love.
Troy: You're absolutely right, Joe.
ALL PLAY: Ohio State +3.5 (over Michigan)
Saints +1.5 (over Falcons)
Cardinals -1.5 (over Rams)
Raiders +8.5 (over Chiefs)
Ravens -3.5 (over Chargers)
ESSAY: Texans +1.5 (over Jaguars)
Buck: There is a large flashing sign in this Jacksonville living room; the moratorium on Jags bets has been lifted for the second time this year. Never thought I'd see that.
Troy: You're absolutely right, Joe, and we won that bet against the Jags in week 2. I gotta admit, this is a difficult slate of NFL games to predict, and we've just been thrown a life preserver.
Buck: You betting against the Jags again?
Troy: You betcha.
Buck: Is it because it's Battle Red Day in Houston?
Troy: No. It's because the Jags offensive line is terrible.
Buck: I think you're underestimating the effect of the red uniforms and the history of this young rivalry.
Troy: They won without them in Jacksonville, Joe.
Buck: That... is a good point.
A great American novelist Barry Hannah once said in the front of one of his books: "Heaven is pals."
ReplyDeleteVery thankful for my pals here on the Bay. Another thing I'm thankful for this year is Magic Johnson's new brand of "Oh my 'Manders" tweets.
https://twitter.com/MagicJohnson/status/1726418524393083097
Will go with cats and dogs today:
Lions (-7.5)
'Manders (+12.5)
and Seahawks (+7).
Will make Michigan (+3.5) my vote of the week hoping the Curse of Wexner theory works out for me at some point this season. Not exactly encouraged that Michigan couldn't throw the ball against Penn State and it's easy to see this game coming down to one team having Marvin Harrison and the other team not having him but Michigan is believed to have more NFL talent on its roster this year than any team in the country and this line looks funny enough to put me in the Vote Blue camp.
Got a point with EMU on Tuesday and I guess I'll finish off this week with the Browns +1.5 in Denver. Hope everyone has a great holiday!
seahawks +7 vs niners
ReplyDeletemissyst +10 vs olemiss
***browns +1.5 at broncos
i'll essay the browns largely on dtr's press availabity tuesday. very poised and sprinkles in the right coachspeak. 'rookie qbs like will and cj are playing clean football. not giving the ball away. they're having clean feet clean progressions. getting the ball into their playmakers hands. making them look good. i'm trying to do the same.' coaches eat that shit up, especially stefanski. somewhere this week he or stefanski referenced training wheels and that they might come off. i expect (hope) stefanski gets more interesting in his calls this week and takes some of the read options that the steelers were leaving on the table for us. but if he doesn't, denver has some poor defensive data on short throws (this holds up even if you throw out their miami game) so even last week's game should be enough. i do have a concern that wilson will be the smartest qb schwartz has seen this year and disguising his packages will be a challenge. but the browns are dogs because of dtr and i think he'll be ok with the noise and an expanding game plan.
ark +8.5 vs mizzou
temple +13 vs memphis
um -3.5 vs osu
Packers
ReplyDeleteManders
Seahawks
Michigan
Commanders +12.5
ReplyDeletePackers
DeleteKent +18.5 v NIU
DeleteKent has not covered a game since 9/16 and today they are getting the most points since they were +24.5 with OU October 7th. They are the worst team in the FBS, with an average scoring margin of -25 with the next closest team being -19. (UL Monroe). Amazingly ESPN is giving them a 13.6% chance of winning (rather than zero) and 6% of betters think they have a chance to cover. When there is a will there is a way.
Bears+3.5
Michigan -3.5
EMU win on Tuesday
Already posted:
ReplyDeleteGreen Bay
San Francisco
Adding:
Oregon -13.5
Auburn +14.5
Jacksonville -1.5
AP and Essay - OSU +3.5
I'm wading into uncharted waters here taking both an AP and College pick as my Essay. Personally, I haven't cared much for this rivalry since Jim Tressel was winning field position battles. However, OSU is simply due after getting rocked the last two years. They boast a top defense and feature a QB who has improved throughout the year. Further, I'm intrigued by Michigan's 1-4-1 ATS mark as a Home Favorite and 4-4-1 record with Equal Rest. This 3.5 point line just jumps out at me, so I'll go with the Buckeyes.
Essay/All-Play/PLAY OF THE YEAR: OSU +3.5 over Michigan
ReplyDeleteRyan Day can't possibly lose three in a row to Michigan, can he? It may have seemed like that was a likely outcome during the first half of this season, as Michigan pounded their (subpar) opponents and OSU's offense struggled week after week. But the tables have turned over the past month; strangely, Michigan has looked mortal ever since they showed Connor Stalions the door. Meanwhile, OSU is peaking at the right time, due in large part to Egbuka, Henderson, and Burke recovering from injuries. They're going to expose Michigan tomorrow with a convincing win, calling into question all of Michigan's results since they hired Stalions at the beginning of the 2021 season.
Texans +1.5 over Jets
DeleteSteelers -1.5 over Bengals
Broncos -1.5 over Browns
Bills +3 over Eagles
Chargers +3.5 over Ravens
1. Bills +3 @ Eagles
ReplyDelete2. Browns +1.5 @ Broncos
3. Raiders +8.5 v. Chiefs
4. Bengals +1.5 v. Steelers
5. Kansas -6.5 @ Cincinnati
AP/E: Ohio St. +3.5 @ Michigan [Essay punt]
AP: Ohio St +3.5
ReplyDeleteSan Jose St +2.5
Coastal Carolina +8.5
NC State +2.5
Giants +3.5 (Essay)
Broncos -1.5
Best wishes to all of our competitors, degenerates and non-degenerates alike, for a happy Thanksgiving weekend full of good food, good deals without any broken bones, and no visits from guys collecting on wagers which may not have gone quite as planned.
The Giants seem to be on the rise after finally getting confidence in Tommy DeVito to actually throw the football. The Pats’ visit offers a winnable game since their season is going off the rails, fast. Mac Jones looked awful the last few weeks while his replacement doesn’t really move the needle in my opinion. It’s anyone’s guess as to whether the Pats dynasty was due to a certain player or a certain coach, regardless, they’re about to hit rock bottom. I was expecting the G-men to be a slight favorite, since they’re (home) underdogs I’ll take them for 3 cheddars.
All play OSU +3.5
ReplyDeleteChiefs -8.5 over Raiders
DeleteBrowns +1.5 over Broncos
Giants +3.5 over Patriots
Vikings -3.5 over Bears
Essay Eagles -3 over Bills -- not buying the resurgence of Buffalo after beating up on the Jets. Over the last month the Eagles have beaten the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Dolphins by more than this margin (and, yes, the Commanders, but whatever). If Josh Allen can be prevailed upon to make a couple more costly errors then Philly at home by 3 looks like the most inviting of what's left, given that I'm unwilling to essay against the Broncos in their weird reenactment of the Tim Tebow season.
All play: Michigan
ReplyDeleteOthers:
ReplyDeleteTexas A and M
North Carolina
Essay: Auburn. Support for the Tide has swelled in recent weeks as they are now deemed fixed and improved from their early season shit show. Frankly, I'm skeptical, and so is the market given the line movement down on this game. Not sure how anyone rational could be enthusiastic about Auburn, especially after last week's home dismantling at the hands of New Mexico St. but I'm willing to give them an excuse with that as a look ahead and hope they are more focused to keep this rivarly game tight.
DeletePro pair:
Bills
Browns
So full card is:
Auburn (essay)
TAMU
UNC
Michigan (all play)
Bills
Browns
UCLA -9.5
ReplyDeleteBrowns +1.5
DeleteBills +3
Packers W
ReplyDeleteNiners W
Buckeyes 🤮
Bengals 1.5 over Pittsburgh
Jaguars -1.5 over Houston
Essay: Chargers 3.5 over Baltimore
Our contest gives me that beautiful 0.5 hook which is now gone. This strikes me as something that may matter greatly for the Chargers, who seemingly have been playing final possession games since the Stan Humphries era. Except now, they have a top-5 QB who is playing out of his mind, and they are at home. Baltimore just lost Lamar’s best weapon in Andrews, and have actually been giving up a ton of yards. Gimme the Bolts and the points.