Cheddar Bay Week Seven: Oregon +2.5 at Washington (3:30 PM Saturday)
This week we have an exciting Big 10 matchup of traditional Midwestern powerhouses. Agnes is already ahead of this week's curve with a crafty Tuesday essay on Middle Tennessee State. As we start to see more midweek games I will make a point of checking the previous thread but let me know if I miss any.
Happy picking everybody. College lines, pro lines, and standings should all be in their usual places, and KENNY WHEATON'S GONNA SCORE.
Broncos +10.5
ReplyDeleteTuesday night Middle Tennessee-3 essay
It makes no sense that MTSU is favored tonight. They almost never cover the spread (1-5 this year) or win (also 1-5 this year). They score an average of 7 points a game less than Louisiana tech. Their leading rusher has scored 1 touchdown. They allow an average of 6 more points per game than LT. The line has moved to favor LT since posting. Only 30% of the bets are currently on MTSA but 42% of the money. Their one advantage is their kicker has an 80% success rate while LT is only 55%. I’m going to go with the confusing line and the better kicker.
Michigan st +5
Vanderbilt +31.5
Washington -2.5
NYG +14.5 for my last point. They have got to cover sometime.
DeleteReposting my WVU Thursday night L (is there a bad beat quarter point?)
ReplyDeleteTampa +3
DeleteOregon +2.5
Iowa +10
Essay skip: Niners
DeleteBears
Loving these old school pics!
ReplyDeleteRutgers -5
UNLV -9.5
Cincy -2.5
Miami -13.5
AP - Oregon +2.5
Essay - SF -8.5
Whenever I come down on the side of Browns' Twitter groupthink, I worry. It's never a great betting sign when EVERYBODY knows a bad loss is coming. So - to fully convince myself, I'll add the following:
SF is an impressive 16-6 ATS as a favorite dating back to last year. Brock Purdy has yet to lose a regular season game and Christian McCaffrey is the exact type of RB to further expose the cracks in the Browns' run defense. And of course, the Browns' offense is a lost cause without Nick Chubb, the O-Line has seriously regressed and Amari Cooper is the only viable offensive threat. Deshaun Watson isn't playing (Yawn...), which gives Kevin Stefanski truthers another week to make excuses before "December in Berea" comes early.
However, what seals this pick for me is a simple list of the coaches Stefanski has beat since 2020.
Tomlin
Harbaugh
Taylor
Reich
Vrabel
Marrone
Culley
Lovie Smith
Vance Joseph
McCarthy
Judge
Rivera
Pederson
Zimmer
Nagy
Campbell (barely)
Rhule
Bowles
Ten of these coaches (TEN!!) have been fired since 2020. The coaches Stefanski has lost to include:
McDaniel
McDermott
Saleh
Belichick (two of the worst beatdowns you'll ever see)
Reid
Bisaccia
Gruden
Staley (TWICE!!!!)
LaFleur
Kingsbury
Tomlin
Harbaugh
Taylor
Stefanski vs. Shanahan. Let's take a wild guess at who gets out coached on Sunday.
Tough weekend but we're on to Cincinnati. I actually got totally wiped out in FanDuel on Bears/Commies, but last night Kadarius Toney helped me cash a +1700 parlay, so it's all good. On to the picks.
ReplyDeleteWashington -2.5
Rutgers -5
Wisconsin -10
Notre Dame -2.5
Bears +3
49ers -8.5 - essay
Not trying to pick on the Browns over and over, but it's really hard to see them doing anything offensively against SF without Watson playing. The line is climbing and will probably be close to 11 or 12 by game time, so the 8.5 is a bargain here. Even if SF plays an uncharacteristically mediocre game offensively, like KC did last night, that was still good enough for an 11 point win when factoring in the opposing offense being incapable of doing anything. But KC has been uneven offensively all year, and SF has been razor sharp. Cleveland's defense can slow it down better than most, but a 20-10 SF victory still cashes this ticket.
AP: Washington -2.5
ReplyDeleteRaiders -2.5* ESSAY
Titans +4
Lions -3
Commanders +2.5
North Carolina -3.5
ESSAY: In the last several years, Bill Belichick has been on a quest. He has sought to prove that he could win without Tom Brady. The fact that Tom Brady has won a Super Bowl without Belichick has only made the fever worse. At his core, Belichick believes in his abilities as a coach, a game-planner, and a talent evaluator. He was always famous for a Bill Walsh-like dispassionate view of players. He would not be so enamored of an older veteran and hold onto their services longer than they were capable.
And yet, he has failed to restock a roster with serviceable NFL players. He's retread Bill O'Brien, yet again, in an effort to save face. He selected Mac Jones, who's been benched in consecutive weeks. He's up against a Raiders team that features a game, if not effective defense. Maxx Crosby should do well here. I think the Mac Jones era in Boston is coming to a conclusion, but that underscores the real question, which is "How long will New England tolerate the 1995 version of Bill Belichick?".
Wednesday: FIU -3 v. UTEP (loss)
ReplyDeleteRaiders -3 v. Patriots
Cardinals +7 @ Rams
BYU +5.5 @ TCU
Ohio St. -19.5 @ Purdue
Maryland -13.5 v. Illinois
49ers last week was so obvious, I should have made it my POTY. This week, I'm not as confident picking the all-play, but I'll still make it my essay. Bo Nix v. Michael Penix. Both transfers from chaos football to become B1G powerhouses. So how to pick this game? I love Washington's home field advantage. Seattle is beautiful around the university and when the crowd gets loud, that place shakes like crazy! I think Penix is the better QB plus that home field and that's enough for me to give the points and risk my biscuits.
Washington -2.5 v. Oregon
Opps... Drop Maryland. Math is hard.
Deleteeastern michigan -7.5
ReplyDeletemaryland -13.5
florida +2.5
washington -2.5 a/p
raiders -2.5 essay
lions -3
hometeam
direct quote from today's boston sports talk "the raiders are not a good football team, but they're better than the patriots." josh mcdaniels is not a good head coach, but he is a quality o.c. (a pure example of the peter principle) jimmy garoppolo is not a great qb, but w a conservative game plan and solid o.c. guidance he's safe. better than mac jones. the real watch here is jacoby myers. rumor is belichick traded the wide receiver for insubordination. The move has caused anger and frustration with players & fans. myers should be a frequent target. mcdaniels, myers, garoppolo brian hoyer, nick lombardi and the entire ne region are primed for a patriots loss.
Deletegive me the raiders -2.5
hometeam
AP: Oregon +2.5
ReplyDeleteIowa State +4.5
Florida +2.5
Texas Tech -1.5
Browns +8.5
Raiders -2.5 (Essay)
NFL essay time … the Pats just don’t look good this season. Not that the Raiders are good either, but from the few minutes I’ve had to watch them play they seem engaged and trying to win. Whereas Mac Jones just tries to fling the ball downfield when things aren’t going to plan, then walks off in a huff after getting yanked (again), then Belichick mumbles something about how Mac Jones is the QB at the postgame presser. True, the Raiders have a few Ls this year, but with the exception of one, they’ve been within a score. I don’t see the Pats suddenly righting the ship after consecutive beatdowns thanks to some obscure ESPN metric (when the relative humidity is under 20 kilowatts in the Pacific time zone, Belichick coached teams are 8-1). 3 Cheddars say the Raiders can cover this week.
Colorado over Stanford
ReplyDeleteAP: Oregon +2.5 vs Wash
49ers -8.5 vs Browns
Raiders -2.5 vs Pats
Seattle +2.5 vs Bengals
DeleteEssay Play : Vikings -3 vs Bears........Cousins without Jefferson still has plenty of viable options, and vikings have looked and feel like a better overall team than chicago in all facets. TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison should see busy days and the bears can't cover Tight Ends. Yes it would really be really nicethat the bears figured out their issues and Fields and DJ Moore can continue their ascent, but I don't really buy it. The bears house was totally totally on fire two weeks ago and while some of the fire is out i am not sure they are in any sense a good football team.
Buck: In my best Brent Musberger voice, you are looking live from a Jacksonville living room. I'm Joe Buck, and Troy Aikman has been enjoying this home cooking alongside me. You know. I may be old fashioned, but I prefer Jacksonville Municipal Stadium over some bank name, and the only upgrade needed is that shade used on the Roman Coliseum, where they could focus the sunlight on the field as the sun moved.
ReplyDeleteTroy: You're absolutely right, Joe.
ALL PLAY: Washington -2.5 (over Oregon)
Lions -3 (over Bucs)
49ers -8.5 (over Browns)
Eagles -7 (over Jets)
Chargers +2.5 (over Cowboys)
ESSAY: Giants +14.5 (over Bills)
Buck: Troy, early weather reports show this game will be drenched. How does that effect your pick?
Troy: Well, Joe, let's start with Daniel Jones, who is likely out with a neck injury. That means Tyrod Taylor is probably starting, and I like the advantage he has making quick cuts that those pass rushers can't make so easily on a soggy field.
Buck: Do we dare to say "TyGod Revenge Game"?
Troy: No, we don't, Joe. I just think he's a better QB for an offensive line that's really struggling.
Buck: Then who are you fading on the Bills?
Troy: Believe it or not, I'm fading Josh Allen. He's a super-duper star, but he's not the safest QB, you know? I highly doubt he's gonna take what the defense gives him, and his play is just as likely to keep this game close with some sloppy turnovers against a blitzing defense.
all play ducks god help me
ReplyDeleteNot going to overthink this with noon approaching, essay 49ers -8.5 over Browns because SF has been a buzzsaw and I doubt PJ Walker is going to overcome that with pluck. Browns defense has obviously been legit (#1 in DVOA) but I have a feeling they're going to be dealing with some suboptimal field position. Terrible weather may be play a role but the Niners don't need to throw much to put up points. A single digit line is too much to pass up here.
DeleteAlso Dolphins -13.5 over Panthers
DeleteLions -3 over Bucs
Cardinals +7 over Rams
Jags -4.5 over Colts
Oregon +2.5 over Washington
ReplyDeleteOhio State -19.5 over Purdue
Patriots +2.5 over Raiders
Chargers +2.5 over Cowboys
Bengals -2.5 over Seahawks
Essay: 49ers -8.5 over Browns
With DTR, the Browns offense resembled its 2016-17 self; it was a miracle just to reach the midfield elf logo. Will that be any different with XFL legend PJ Walker? No freaking way. Especially not against the 49ers, who might as well be an amalgam of the 2007 Patriots and the 1985 Bears with respect to this Browns team. With Watson's mysterious injury keeping him out again, the Browns are waving the white flag this weekend (Bitonio's missing his first game since 2016; Njoku's likely to be out with facial burns even though he was able to play two weeks ago), and the only question is how many points they'll lose by. I have to imagine it will at least be 9, so a Niners essay it is.
Earlies:
ReplyDeleteAll play: Washington
Oregon St.
Rest later --
Mizzou
DeleteEssay: North Carolina St. - NCSt has been underwhelming and on a survey of the schedule has won a couple of underwhelming close ones with no real standout win. Plus in looking at common opponent of ND, NCSt got straight housed while Duke lost a game they should have won. Probably the most impressive result for NC St was the close loss to Louisville. So how did we get to this number on the road? Absolutely no idea but do think this game between local rivals should be tight and low scoring where points matter. NCSt for this week's essay.
NFL:
Cowboys
Jets
Washington -2.5 over Oregon
ReplyDeleteoregon +2.5 at uw
ReplyDeleteku -2.5 at okst
titans +4 vs ravens
seahawks +2.5 at bengals
lions -3 at bucs
***texans +1.5 vs saints
it's probably two weeks early in declaring the texans legit but there's no value in waiting. stroud's early play as a rookie is impressive and shows a player able to learn and adapt. with a front row seat to the mac jones saga, i'm reminded that that's the biggest determinant of nfl qb success. this game can launch houston into an unexpected playoff run. and what would be more brownsie than feeding our draft picks to a team on the up. i guess this is a bit hunchy, but beware of a team feeling itself in front of an enthusiastic home crowd. or at least don't spot them a couple points.
Agnes is getting too big for her britches folks. Please do not encourage her like this. Anyway, I will go back to the well for my sixth essay this year that's either Notre Dame or Browns to take the Irish tonight -2.5. Irish already have two losses, to tOSU and a surprising and maybe actually good Louisville team. USC can still make the playoff losing today. ND not only can't, but a third loss this early diminishes the bowl game sweepstakes for the sponsors. After getting punched in an underratedly tough road spot last week ND comes back home and gets a needed big win.
ReplyDeleteHuskies in the all play and Browns, Saints, Jets, and Lions for the rest.
Washington - 2.5 over Oregon
ReplyDeleteTennessee -3 to A&M
DeleteUSC +2.5 to ND
9er -8.5 to Browns
Dolphins -13.5 to Panthers
Bears +3 to Vikings (essay)
Bears +3 to Vikings (essay)
DeleteOffensive output will be high. and Chicago has the better offense (thanks to JJeff being out ...probs for the season).
Bears have hit the over all 5 games, I expect it to be 6 in a row, and the Bears to win by like 10.
Justin Fields appears to have turned a corner as a passer, making the Bears offense a nightmare for opposing defenses. For the Vikings team that just lost its best playmaker and an organization that could be on the brink of an implosion.
Washington -2.5
ReplyDeleteMiami oh - 8.5
Oregon State - 3.5 Essay
DeleteMiami FL +3.5
Let's essay the local team, the Beavs from the PAC2. They played well at home, including a dismantling of Utah a few weeks back. Now Chip Kelly comes to town with UCLA, local folks have some memories of this guy. UCLA statistically has the better defense, but I think the beavers D play as tough as anyone and make life difficult especially at Reser stadium. During the game I'll be a few miles up the road hanging out with llamas and alpacas at the convention center. Nothing but fun on a rainy Saturday in oregon.
Bucs +3
DeleteJets +7
Washington Huskies (W)
ReplyDeleteSeahawks 2.5 over Bengals
Colts 4.5 over Jags
Commanders 2.5 over Atlanta
Cowboys 2.5 over Chargers
Essay: Bills -14.5 over Giants.
Had a very tough time finding games to pick this week. Not super confident in any of them, so let's go with a loaded Bills offense facing a putrid (and injured) Giants squad at home. I have a ton of respect for Tyrod Taylor, but with no offensive line in front of him, he doesn't stand a chance. 37-13 Bills.
Gonna channel Agnes to try and break out of this multiweek funk, give me Jacksonville State with the points (looking like +8.5 right now)
ReplyDeleteScrew it, gimme Liberty to cover also. (currently -14.5)
DeleteWeek 8 essay
ReplyDeleteSouthern Mississippi +18.5
The big SOMI v SOAL matchup tonight is shaping up to be an exciting event (as Tuesday night Sunbelt games go). On the surface it seems like nobody has confidence in SOMI. They only have 17% of the bets and 14% of the money despite the spread going from 14.5 to 18.5 since opening. They didn’t covered in their last 5 games, but they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in which they had only allowed a max of 20 points in the previous game (imagine how hard it was to come up with betting strategies before computers). The interesting this is that ESPN is giving them a 12.9% chance of winning. It seems like someone there has a bit of confidence in their abilities considering MTSU only has a 13% chance of winning and they are only getting 14.5 points, and Oklahoma is favored by 19, but UCF only has a 5.9% chance of winning. So what I’m saying is they have a chance. (If you want to know who has the lowest prediction of winning this week it’s Army in their matchup against LSU:()