Cheddar Bay Week 9: Browns (+3.5) at Seahawks (4PM Sunday)
We're in Seattle this week for a classic rivalry game between the Browns and Seahawks that unlike previous installments has potentially major playoff implications.
It's the Cheddar Bay Super Bowl (58) - Chiefs -1.5 v. Eagles
Looks like it's JPB (with DK as the runner-up) if the Eagles cover and Ben (with Residue Dogs at No. 2) if there's a three-peat. Runner up gets their entry fee back, winner takes the rest. Best wishes to all and congrats in advance to our soon-to-be newly reigning champion.
Bills -9.5 puhlease
ReplyDeleteHuskies -26.5 to Stanford
DeleteWisconsin +14.5 to Ohio State
Bears +8.5 to the Chargers
DeleteAll play Seahawks -3.5 to the Brown
Essay Niners -3.5 to the Bengals
Essay
DeleteNiners -3.5
simple essay: Niners don't lose 3 in a row, especially with the 3rd game at home
Purdy was out, then he wasn't. Now he's in.
The line went everywhere, but I think the 9ers win by 7.
AP: Browns +3.5
ReplyDeleteKansas +9.5
Minnesota -7 vs Michigan State
Baylor +2.5
ESSAY: Texans -3.5*
Jets -3
*ESSAY - I think when it's all said and done, we will have to admit a couple of things about the Texans. First, they drafted a QB that they decided -- in a risky move -- to start as a rookie. But they were left with little choice. Second, they gave the QB an offensive playbook that he could execute. He's truly playing within what he's been taught. He's seeing the field really well. The offense makes sense (see Fields, Justin for a contrast). The Panthers start Bryce Young. Bryce is smart and throws a great off-platform ball. The problem is that he doesn't have a lot of help. He's taking a lot of hits, and he's not very big at all. He may not last the season.
Give me the Texans.
buccaneers +9.5
ReplyDeletehometeam
army -10
Deletecoastal carolina +4
dolphins -9.5 essay
jets -3
seahawks -3.5
another fantastic sunday for a patriots loss. today is a great match-up: young, data driven coach mike mcdaniel v old, cranky bellicose belichick. the belichick model is to neutralize the opponents strongest weapon, in this case tyreek hill. watch for miami to dangle hill in front of the ne defense then expertly dodge and still score. then do it again. ne does not play well in miami, (today is 80, steamy & muggy) the patriots like cold, wet dark conditions. also, coach bb has n e v e r beaten tua. give me the dolphins, -9.5
DeleteSeahawks -3.5 for the all-play
ReplyDeleteNorthwestern +13.5
Florida +14.5 - essay
Kentucky +3.5
Commanders +7
Lions -7.5
I don't know what it is but I have a feeling the Gators are going to bring it to the cocktail party this weekend. Graham Mertz has turned into a game management savant, and I'd like everyone to take a moment to recognize that. Graham Mertz for the season is 170/223 for a completion percentage of 76.2%. He's already got more completions in 7 games this year than he's ever had in a full season of 12 or 13 games with Wisconsin. He's averaging over 9 yards per attempt and he has 12 TDs to 2 picks.
Georgia would need to do a lot to cover 14.5 in a game like this, especially with Brock Bowers out. The Kentucky connection does give me pause here, Georgia jumped all over Kentucky who jumped all over Florida, so the common opponent numbers are terrible for this pick. But it really seems like Kentucky was an outlier game for both programs and I'm just not putting a ton of stock on it.
Florida has lost 5 of their last 6 against Georgia, so maybe they're just due. I'll be tempted to place the moneyline bet.
Carolina +3.5
ReplyDeleteWashington +7
Miami -9.5
Minnesota -1.5
Oregon -6.5
AP and Essay - Seattle -3.5
I admit - my Cheddar year is a mess. I have no read on anything football related, so I may as well throw my chips in on an underrated Seattle team starting a perfectly adequate veteran QB in Geno Smith. Smith joins the likes of Jimmy G, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins (and likely Jacoby Brissett once he gets the chance) as veteran guys who can steer a team to the playoffs if the right circumstances emerge.
Meanwhile, the Browns gambled their future on Deshaun Watson - making a move similar to the Jets and Broncos. None of the three teams are any better at the position than they were pre-trade. In the Browns' case, Watson has played three good quarters of football all season and exhibited an Antonio Brown-level of CTE against the Steelers. Oh, and now his shoulder is busted and we're back to playing the Baker Mayfield game of "Is he a bad QB?" or "Is he hurt?"
PJ Walker has performed a herculean task keeping the Browns' offense engaged, but he has also greatly benefitted from some crucial late game penalties. I think his luck runs out on the road in a tough place to play.
Buck: Welcome again to the broadcast booth; I'm Joe Buck, and I'm alongside... wait, where did Troy go?
ReplyDelete*picks up hand-written note*
Buck: ..."I'll be back when this check addressed from the Jacksonville living room stops bouncing." ...I guess the residual LIV Golf money ran out? I'll do my best, America. You know, this explains why Browns/Seahawks is the ALL PLAY; we didn't have money for anything else. Maybe we can get a piece of the Baseball United money soon?
ALL PLAY: Seahawks -3.5 (over Browns)
Florida +14.5 (over Georgia)
Dolphins -9.5 (over Patriots)
Vikings -1.5 (over Packers)
Eagles -7 (over Commies)
ESSAY: Titans +1.5 (over Falcons)
Buck: Well, it seems the Falcons are trying to play a similar style of football to the Titans, but the problem is... I don't think Desmond Ridder is any good. And while I'm sure Malik Willis is terrible, at least Will Levis has a small chance to be good and shock the Falcons. I guess that means I'm taking the points? I think Mike Vrabel is the better coach anyways. I will say that Arthur Smith growing a mustache is a significant improvement over the alternative. FedEx, if you're listening, your sponsorship is always welcome.
Troy: You're absolutely right, Joe.
Buck: 😲
Charlotte for 1
ReplyDeleteUmass +10 v. Army
DeletePurdue. +2.5 v Nebraska. (can’t get much viewership as their Volleyball team)
Oklahoma St. -6.5 v. Cinci
Falcons -2.5. v. Titans
University of Massachusetts vs. Army- as 1-7 team vs 2-5 team. This week is all about reverse line movements. Charlotte didn’t work out but its still a numbers game and if it always worked out then everyone would follow reverse movements and the whole gambling industry would shut down and we certainly can’t damage our state’s newest commercial enterprise. Anyway Army went from -13.5 to -10 despite having 60% of the money and 76% of the bets. Army has dominated in their last 3 matchups, including a 44-7 win and a 63-7 win, so maybe this year they worked a little harder at preparing for this running offense. Okay, they are the 4th worse team at rushing defense, but they are 53rd at passing defense (out of 133), so I am saying there is a chance. Right now Army is 8th worst team in points per game when looking at just FBS team matchups, while UMass is 43rd worst.
Seahawks
DeleteMississippi St +6.5
ReplyDeleteCal +10.5
Coastal Carolina +4
Stanford +26.5 (essay)
Browns +4 (AP)
Colts +1
Last week was a reversion to the mean, or in other words, a reminder that perhaps it’s good that my main source of income is not derived from guessing winners of sporting events. I usually shy away from taking the big underdog, especially for the essay. Washington is having a good season but not trouncing opponents at least in the final score, which is what counts here. Stanford is not having a good season, and seems to be a coin toss on whether they show up or get smacked around. I don’t see this being a blowout where Washington just shows up in Stanford then racks up a ton of touchdowns. I don’t see it being particularly close either, but that’s where a spot of nearly 4 touchdowns comes in handy.
OSU -14.5 over Wisconsin
ReplyDeleteColts +1 over Saints
Jags -2.5 over Steelers
Rams +6.5 over Cowboys
Giants +3 over Jets
Essay: Seahawks -3.5 over Browns
The Browns should have traded for Jacoby Brissett earlier this week, when it became clear that Deshaun would not be able to play in Seattle. Instead, they're pressing their luck with PJ Walker, who deserves less than one percent of the credit for the Browns' fortuitous two-game winning streak. He's been atrocious, and it seems inevitable that his carriage will turn into a pumpkin against the Seahawks, who have held their last three opponents to 3, 17, and 10 points, respectively. Unless the Browns can create turnovers the way they did in Indy—and that's not something they've done well in any other game this year—it's hard to see PJ leading them into the red zone much at all. I expect this game to serve as a wakeup call to the staff and front office that PJ's not going to cut it—even on a short-term basis—if they want to make the most of this season.
TAMU -14.5 over SC
ReplyDeleteOklahoma -9.5 @ Kansas
ReplyDeleteOklahoma St. -6.5 v. Cincinnati
Florida St. -20.5 @ Wake Forest
Indiana +31.5 @ Penn St.
Miami (OH) +7.5 @ Ohio
Essay/All-play: Browns +3.5 @ Seahawks
You don't switch horses in midstream or something, so the Executive Committee has not only tricked me into picking this game, they've tricked me into making it my essay. This game has lots of interesting directions. From a football perspective, the Browns and Seahawks should be expected to play a defensive battle as both teams have been playing excellent defense this season. So Browns plus points in a FG game sounds good. But the Seahawks have the better QB. And as much as I like Kevin Stefanski, Pete Carroll is the better coach. 2 checks in the Seahawks column. The Seahawks are also wearing their gorgeous throwbacks. Another tally to the home team. The Browns defense got absolutely gashed last week and a group with that much pride will not let it happen again. They appear to be healthy, so I expect them to be on lockdown. Tick to the Browns. Ultimately, the hook on 3.5 is too juicy for a team that doesn't get blow out when the QB isn't a last second scratch. Still feels weird to say that about your Cleveland MF Browns.
Tampa
ReplyDeleteCuse
Miami (OH)
Seattle
Utah +6.5 essay
DeleteThis Utah team is so stout, they have College Gameday on campus, they’re at home. Oregon is showing some flashes of being the Oregon of a few years ago, but they haven’t really handed any Power 5 teams a blowout, and Utah plays everyone close. Utah is improving on offense and owns some impressive wins. Utah did lose by 14 this season but generally they keep things close. Not my favorite slate this weekend but I like this pick. Utah as the home dog for three points
Niners
DeleteEssay: Arizona Wildcats - Finally won an essay last week. Arizona has massively overachieved this year after very low preseason win total (4/4.5). Backup QB has been great and the offense has been humming. Oregon St. is highly ranked and capable, but this looks extremely low for a 4-3 vs 6-1 particularly considering pre-season predictions/assessment. Will take a stab here in this hopefully weird late night Pac12 tilt.
ReplyDeleteOthers:
UCLA
Purdue
Cincy bearcats
Jaguars
All play: Shithawks
uf +14.5 vs uga
ReplyDeletewisc +14.5 vs osu
falcons -2.5 at titans
Deletemin -1.5 at pack
lions -7.5 vs raiders
***panthers +3.5 vs texans
Panthers home dog coming off bye. Apparently they've used the time to implement some new offense with their OC taking over play-calling from Reich. If you're in the crew that would like to see Stefanski take a step back, this is a game to watch. Last five games ATS: Texans 5-0, Panthers 0-5. I suppose you can spin that either way, but I'll spin it that the streaks have to end some time. Young has been not good but he's had enough sense to look for Theilein who is getting over ten targets a game and catching 90% of them. Public is riding the Texans here pretty heavily (65/35). It's easy to swing for the fences when you're dfl, so gimme the Panthers here.
oops, drop minny and i'll take browns in the all-play.
DeleteCollege game Oregon State -3.5 over Arizona
ReplyDelete
DeleteAP Seahawks -3.5 over Browns
Dolphins -9.5 over Patriots
Vikings -1.5 over Packers
49ers -3.5 over Bengals
Essay Texans -3.5 over Panthers -- I am 100% on tilt and currently on an 0-6 run, so I am just going to throw my hands up and go chalk (and avoid the Steelers, who I have consistently picked wrong both ways all year). Texans get the nod off the double bye as this is #14 vs #32 in DVOA and Mike is on the Panthers, so let's get the battle for last place going over here.
Boise St -5.5
ReplyDeleteStanford +26.5
Fresno St -7.5
DeleteBrowns +3.5
DeleteBengals +3.5 essay
DeleteStill not sure if Purdy is going to play, or if he does how he'll look. All I know is the shine has worn off him a little bit since facing the Cleveland Browns defense two weeks ago. Last week the 49ers lost to one of the surest things in the NFL over the past 5 years: Kirk Cousins in primetime, so you know the arrow is pointed down. The Bengals seem to be rounding into decent form and play in what is clearly the toughest division in the league by a mile. This year they're not a playoff team, but I think they keep this one within a FG.
Bears +8.5
DeleteWill take the Badgers and the points over the Buckeyes tonight please.
ReplyDeleteI saw 3 different highway public announcements in the past 2 days that said “we don’t mean to badger you but please drive sober” coincidence or does the Ohio traffic department have some The OSU biases?
DeleteSteelers +2.5 over Jags; Giants +3 over Jets; Browns +3.5 over Seahawks; Bengals +3.5 over Niners
DeleteTamu (L)
ReplyDeleteCowboys -6.5
Panthers 3.5
Seahawks -3.5
Patriots 9.5
Non-essay essay: Bengals 3.5 over 49ers
College pick - missed
ReplyDeleteBrowns +3.5 vs Seahawks
Texans -3.5 vs Panthers
Eagles -7 vs Commanders
Chargers -8.5 vs Bears
Colts +1 vs Saints
Colts seemed good last week and if it weren't for officials would have won that game. Gardner is a killer first name, I love it. So I like him. If Gardner Mishnew would have just handed the ball to the referees after he scored his TDs maybe then he would have avoided a strip sack in the endzone. I couldn't believe that someone would start dancing a jig 15 minutes into playing the best defense in the NFL. Dude you turned the ball over 4 times last week and are off to a good start, keep your head down and fingers crossed. Maybe this only makes sense to me and my perception and experience with karma, but if Gardner can get closer to his source on this dynamic connectedness, perhaps the Colts can cover today.
10/31 maction action Tuesday Toledo -15.5
ReplyDeleteSince there is still no posting and I’m about to get on a plane I’ll take Titans +3
Delete11/2: TNF Titans +3 @ Steelers
ReplyDelete