Cheddar Bay Week 8: Penn State (+5.5) at Ohio State (Big Noon Saturday)
We're in Columbus this week for The Pedo Bowl and the stakes couldn't be higher.
At least not for a regular season amateur football matchup. College lines are here; pro lines are here; Agnes? A bit off her high horse but surely not for long. Here's to another blessed football voting weekend for all.
I'll try the Saints (-1.5) tonight for a point please. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteFor today I'll take State Penn (+5.5)*** in the All Play, plus Bama (-8.5 over Life Champs), and FSU (-14.5 over Duke).
Delete***Will go ahead and make State Penn the vote of the week. Speaking of "signature wins," it seems that all we've heard all week is about how James Franklin doesn't have one. Think today is as good a day as any for that narrative to come back toward the middle. Amazing get for PSU to have recruited Drew Allar out of Ohio, which was aided by OSU's Ewers mess. One would expect there to be consequences from that and today would be a day for those consequences to be realized. Like OSU, PSU has first round talent all over the field. Think they can keep it within 5.5 today. Plus of course the Curse of Wexner has got to come calling at some point this season and has the benefit of being fresher and more hungry than the Sandusky Curse on PSU. PS, that is not a photoshop above. The guy really made "Touched" the title of his autobiography. Talk about being out over your skis. Annnyway, happy Big Noon Saturday folks! Hope everyone has a great one!
Will keep it high profile with the NFL votes this week: Eagles (-2.5 over fish); Vikes (+7 over Niners).
DeleteGood one Frowns. I’ll take the Jags +1.5 tonight
ReplyDeletePlus Colorado state, OSU, UCF, Broncos (SOMI essay loss, I guess writing about a team that ends up losing by 52 points may have put a bit of a damper on my smugness)
Tuesday carryover
ReplyDeleteJacksonville State (W)
Liberty (L)
not sure what the final lines were but the results were not close anyway
OSU -5.5 - essay skip
Illinois +2.5
Lions +3
Michigan -24.5
Miami OH +2.5
ReplyDeleteUNLV -7.5
Old Dominion +6.5
KC -5.5
AP - PSU +5.5
Essay - Oklahoma -17.5
Last week, I went against my cardinal rule of Cheddar: Never bet on or against the Browns unless DeShone Kizer and Hue Jackson are involved. Last week, I saw a blowout coming - so naturally, the Browns turned in a "signature" win (Browns' Twitter's new favorite word). While I fully see a letdown game occurring this Sunday in Indy, I'm staying far away from that team. So....back to basics and I'm going with ATS darling Oklahoma. The Sooners are a perfect 6-0 ATS, including a 5-0 mark as a favorite. They take on a sloppy UCF team (2-4 ATS), which drags along one of the worst defenses in college.
I thought Browns Twitter's new favorite word was "stacking" but "signature win" is right up there.
DeleteBuck: Welcome back to the broadcast booth; I'm Joe Buck, and you're looking at the biggest Texas Rangers fan you'll ever find, Troy Aikman; all sarcasm intended. Troy, I learned that the New York Mets were after you, and you demanded more money than Darryl Strawberry as your own agent.
ReplyDeleteTroy: You're absolutely right, Joe. I never had to use it as leverage like Elway did, and I think everything worked out alright.
ALL PLAY: Penn State +5.5 (over Ohio State)
Raiders -3 (over Bears)
Giants +3 (over Commanders)
Rams -3 (over Steelers)
Dolphins +2.5 (over Eagles)
ESSAY: Packers -1.5 (over Broncos)
Buck: I also learned that Green Bay was named "la baie des Puants" (literally, "the bay of the Stinks") by the French explorer Jean Nicolet, and now I can't pull myself away from betting against the Stinks.
Troy: Hold on, Joe. The Broncos are terrible, and giving up a point and a half doesn't scare me. Take the Packers.
Buck: Does Mile High scare you?
Troy: There's very few things in life that scare me, Joe. Spiders, concussions, even peanut butter sticking to the roof of my mouth. A little mountain air is quite calming, actually. Barrel Man and his ilk don't scare me one bit.
All-Play: Penn State +5.5
ReplyDeleteGiants +3
USC -7.5 vs Utah
Miami +3 vs Clemson
Houston +23.5 vs Texas
ESSAY Bucs -2.5 vs Atlanta
If football was basketball, I would take the ridiculous talent of Bijan Robinson and the Falcons to win. But football requires 11 men working in unison and a play-caller/head coach who aren't idiots. It would help to have a quarterback other than Desmond Ridder going against Tampa, who quietly have fielded a top 10 defense in advanced metrics, including defensive EPA/play, rush defense EPA/play, and DVOA. Tampa is the smart play here.
osu -5.5
ReplyDeleteflorida state -14.5
lions +3
patriots +8.5 (essay to follow)
rams -3
cardinals +7.5
hometeam
this is not a pick for the patriots to win, just to cover. it's the real football team of foxboro - andy cohen could produce. so. much. drama. heard of peyton place? this is patriots place. a well regarded local sports reporter known to be a kraft mouthpiece came out this week with a story that rkk was furious and no one was safe if the losing continues. that report was a speculation starting gun; would kraft fire belichick? trade belichick? is belichich secretly negotiating with other teams? the rest of the team know it's a sinking ship - everyone needs a highlight reel for the off season. watch zeke elliot, his yards will be an over. but win? no chance. the offense hate each other, there's no cohesion. mac jones is destined to be injured. and the poor qb hoped his yoda bill o'brien would be his ally; nope. o'brien isn't going to flush his career on this team. big changes are ahead. some local pundits suspect rkk will turn team to jonathan (son and heir apparent) - then he, robert, won't be remembered as the owner who fired belichick. there could be a future in the changes for o'brien.
Deletethe bills will win, but they're a little banged up.
give me the pats to cover +8.5
psu +5.5 at osu
ReplyDeletewisc -2.5 at ill
tenn +8.5 at bama
aub +6.5 vs ole miss
browns -3 at colts
niners -7 at vikes***
niners didnt stop being the best team in nfl last week. yeah they lost and were dominated by the best defense since the 85 bears, but they were up against the 85 bears. and though they were never gonna cover the 9.5,,, still,,, two missed fgs and missed end zone pick and theyd have been close to covering and that's against the 85 bears. vikes defense aint that. let's throw in that vikes only scored 12 in their first game and that was against the bears. niners scored 30+ five games in a row before cleveland, seems likely they'll resume that form monday.
* vikes only scored 12 in their first game without justin jefferson
Deletesry.
AP: Penn State +5.5
ReplyDeleteKent St. +6.5
Hawaii -1.5
TCU +6.5 (Essay)
Falcons +2.5
Lions +3
It’s raining underdogs this week. TCU has fallen on hard times this season. Signs of life are emerging, with their offense waking up last week against BYU, another large religious university. I’m not paying enough attention to know how many players and coaches they lost from last year’s championship game team, but I can only assume they have some of that squad intact. Both sides are capable of scoring points, so I’m leaning towards a high scoring, last team with the ball wins kind of a game. When it comes to degeneracy, that should favor the underdog especially with a largish point spread of 6.5.
Penn State +5.5
ReplyDeleteBama -8.5
Auburn +6.5
Utah +7
Steelers +3
Eagles -2.5 (essay)
Having problems with my laptop while traveling, so I'm typing quickly on my tablet to get in before 11a. If the laptop wants, I'll be back with essay words.
ReplyDeleteEssay: Ohio St -5.5 v Penn St
Wisconsin -2.5 @ Illinois
Ole Miss -6.5 @ Auburn
Lions +3 @ Ravens
49ers -7 @ Vikings
Memphis -6.5 @ UAB
Why Ohio St? Well, I went back and forth because that seems like a lot of points. I see this being a pretty close game as PSU tries to limit possessions because the last thing you want to do is let Ohio St get several possessions for the coaches to figure out what works. That's Ohio St's Achilles' heel, limited possessions. So if Penn St can establish the run and burn clock and keep Ohio St to 7 or less possessions for the game, they have a chance to get their "signature win". But Ohio St. has a defense this year that is matching Penn St in every way. Ohio St will eventually hit chunk plays. There is no evidence so far that Penn St has those same chunk plays in them. So the play in this one is to give the +5.5 (yes, I realize I put the wrong operator on that game above, typing quickly on the tablet on screen keyboard {shrug emoji}). Home crowd carries the team to a big win and Ohio St's schedule jumps to Thanksgiving weekend before they play a meaningful game again.
DeleteAll play: Ohio St.
ReplyDeleteEssay: Minny Golden Gophers - They've been legit terrible as bigger dogs and have an inept Greek-American quarterback who must have nudes on Fleck (as there is no other explanation for him playing). Meanwhile, Iowa still sucks but has somehow won a few games against the rest of the Little 13 and now finds itself ranked. Despite seemingly divergent paths, this has drifted down off the opener and the points still look appealing in what should be an unwatchable shit fest. I'll try it - essays have been horrendous.
DeleteOthers:
Chargers
Eagles
Auburn
Florida St.
BGSU -7.5
ReplyDeletePSU +5.5
Mizzou -7.5 essay
Mizzou is hot this year on the field and ATS, covering in four of the last five, with the exception of the LSU game. At 6-1., the Tigers are quietly putting together a solid season with wins over Kansas State and UK (this feels more like a basketball pick 'em). South Carolina comes to town reeling after having given up a career day to former Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz. South Carolina doesn't excel on either side of the ball, and the shootout against Florida wasn't really promising. I don't see SCar getting off the mat on this long road trip (probably one of the longest and most annoying in the SEC until Oklahoma and Texas join). I also like this game because they play for the Mayors' Cup, which sounds like something I hope to be a part of soon. https://twitter.com/MizzouFootball/status/1328506892130271232
Browns
DeleteChargers
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteNiners
DeletePSU +5.5 AP
ReplyDeleteOSU -5.5 over PSU
ReplyDeleteAuburn +6.5 over Ole Miss
DeleteRaiders -3 over Bears
DeleteColts +3 over Browns
Lions +3 over Ravens
Essay: Dolphins +2.5 over Eagles
DeleteAt their best, I think the Dolphins have looked better than any other team in the league. And I expect them to operate at that level in a big Sunday night clash with the Eagles. I was down on the Eagles in the preseason; I thought they'd suffer a classic Super Bowl hangover and consequently hammered the under on their season total (11.5). On paper, they haven't regressed—Philly is 5-1 and sits atop the NFC East—but I haven't been impressed by them. So I like the Dolphins to expose and humble them a bit tonight. They'll win outright.
All play OSU
ReplyDeleteBrowns -3 over Colts
DeleteLions +3 over Ravens
Commanders -3 over Giants
Packers -1.5 over Broncos
Essay Rams -3 over Steelers -- An above average team (DVOA #12), at home against a below average (DVOA #20) team, and a line that really does not reflect those facts. A mismatch in terms of quarterback play, despite the fact that I keep sleeping on Stafford and talking myself into the Steelers as underdogs and having it blow up in my face. And, most importantly, a game that does not kick off at 1 PM Eastern, as I post this very slightly after the clock strikes noon.
Essay: Minny Golden Gophers - They've been legit terrible as bigger dogs and have an inept Greek-American quarterback who must have nudes on Fleck (as there is no other explanation for him playing). Meanwhile, Iowa still sucks but has somehow won a few games against the rest of the Little 13 and now finds itself ranked. Despite seemingly divergent paths, this has drifted down off the opener and the points still look appealing in what should be an unwatchable shit fest. I'll try it - essays have been horrendous.
ReplyDeleteOthers:
Chargers
Eagles
Auburn
Florida St.
Miami oh
ReplyDeleteUtah st
Falcons +2.5
DeleteSeahawks -7.5
Chargers +5.5 essay
The Chargers lose games, but not by much. The losses this year: 2 (Dolphins), 3 (Raiders) and 3 (Cowboys). Going back to last year and basically the entire tenure of Coach Staley it is nothing but close losses, almost all within 1 score, most in gut wrenching fashion with poor or at least questionable decision making most of the time. Getting +5.5 means they could still lose by one score and not cover the spread, but I doubt that will be the case here. They always play the Chiefs tough and this KC team hasn't looked untouchable by any stretch of the imagination.
PSU (L)
ReplyDeleteRavens -3 Over Det
Pats 8.5 over Bills
Seahawks -7.5 over Cards
Commanders -3 over Giants
Essay: Browns -3 over Colts
Gardner Minshew is a great story. 6th round pick who played himself into a starting role in Jacksonville, and now has staked a claim as the best backup QB in the league. That stands for something.
Unfortunately, he has to face a Cleveland Browns defense that is best in the NFL in many statistical metrics, and near the top in pressure rate on the QB. And that is where Minshew fails badly. Crazily, the Browns have lost the turnover battle every single game, so that is bound to regress. With Deshaun Watson back, Browns take care of business on the road.
Now usually I don't do this but most of you have probably noticed that my wife Agnes has been quite up on her high horse lately. It was one thing when she went and won a secret (to me) Tuesday night essay two weeks ago, and I thought the tables had leveled when she flew too close to the sun with a second straight Tuesday three-point shot but then she went and recovered by finishing perfectly on the rest of her votes to salvage a 5 point week. I note that she has not yet posted on tonight's action and I further note that the Fallwells' squad (one of Agnes's very faves) is playing against the WKU Hilltoppers, another fave of hers, whose girls teams are known as the Lady Toppers. I've heard that the secret to a good marriage is one where we keep each other on our toes and she will surely be moved to see that while she's been getting dinner ready I'm here striving to be a lady topper (of one particular lady). WKU +4.5 over (and for the ultimate) Liberty for Old Frowner's vote of the week. Read em and weep Agnes!!!
ReplyDeleteI've got the +4.5 screenshot recorded for Exec. Comm. review BTW
Delete:pinched_fingers:
DeleteI have some Thursday nite Week 9 plays:
ReplyDeleteTampa and the points
Syracuse and the points