Cheddar Bay Week 6: Cowboys +3.5 at Niners (SNF)
We're in SF for SNF this week for another early-season clash between top-rated NFL squads, the Niners laying 3.5 to the Cowboys in a potential (dare we say likely?) NFC Championship preview.
The Red River Shootout was admittedly an attractive alternative. College lines are here. Pro lines are here. A most blessed football voting weekend to all.
Great pic! I'll take the Bears +6 to start the week.
ReplyDeleteBuck: Welcome again to the broadcast booth; I'm Joe Buck, and I'm alongside the pride of Henryetta, Troy Aikman. Well, Troy, you're not the only Hall Of Famer in Jacksonville today (apologies to Big Bo, but Ponte Vedra doesn't count). We have a special treat for Lions fans: 15-time Grammy Award winner, Academy Award winner, and Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame inductee Eminem has joined us in the booth.
ReplyDeleteEminem:
ALL PLAY: Cowboys +3.5 (over 49ers)
Rutgers +12.5 (over Wisconsin)
Cardinals +3 (over Bengals)
Ravens -4 (over Steelers)
Jets +1.5 (over Broncos)
ESSAY: Lions -10 (over Panthers)
Buck: Em, have the Lions ever been this good in your lifetime, beating the defending champs on the road? Do you think they try to make a statement against the Panthers and win big?
Eminem: Yeah... Yeah.
Buck: ...well, Troy, the Lions are coming off that dominant win over the Packers on Thursday night, and they should be well rested. As for the Panthers, it took their offensive line just three weeks to get their franchise QB hurt. They call their team color "process blue" and it looks like printer ink. Hell, Robby Anderson thought their mascot was a bear. There are so many things I don't like, and I can't shake it. Can you change my mind, Troy?
Troy: No, you're absolutely right, Joe.
Buck:
Troy:
Eminem:
Last week we didn't like the slate, this week our cup runneth over.
ReplyDeleteMaryland +19.5
Purdue +1.5
Texas A&M +1.5
Commies -6 - essay
Lions -10
Niners -3.5 - all play
I think this is the game where it all collapses on the Bears. Stan Van Gundy may have been the master of panic back in the day, but Matt Eberflus has taken that mantle and raised it to new heights. In 4 weeks the Bears have disappeared their defensive coordinator and #2 WR and can't even figure out how to message it. Couple that with all-time coaching gag job against the Broncos four days ago and that's looking a lot like quitting time for the players. The Commies aren't great shakes themselves and normally 6 points is a hefty line, but disadvantaged teams usually get slaughtered on Thursday night. Eberflus has negative credibility in the locker room, multiple players have gone public with explicit statements that the coaching staff is holding them back, and this guy is going to rally the troops to turn it around in 3 days to win on the road? Unlikely. Big day for Sam Howell incoming.
Sam Houston +20.5
ReplyDeleteBears +6
Once bitten but not shy. Illinois for 1
DeleteSaints -1 for 1 point
DeleteEagles -4.5 Essay. The Rams are the only NFL team to have covered every game so they are due to for an uncovering. The Eagles have scored and average of 5 more points per game than the Rams and the Rams have done even worse at home. The Eagles have scored the most field goals of any team, so they have an edge of getting a few more points in a close game. The over /under is the highest of the week, so expect some bad defense and some fun offense viewing.
DeleteCowboys all play
DeleteGimme the Bears +6. RIP Dick Butkus
ReplyDeleteCripes I'll take the Bears too for a single. RIP to the Maestro of Mayhem and the good old days https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRT-toIEqag
ReplyDeleteFrowns is too busy pre-game (high school football) boozing to vote and asked me to put in Illinois for 1 point. #wifeguy
DeleteCripes a wife guy can't pay some respects to a departed legend without being libeled around here, apparently. Wow.
DeleteAnyway, take Razorbacks and Trojans for today please. I guess I'll essay USC to cover the big number tonight against Arizona mainly because I think they're due after last week's second half "collapse" to lose the cover in a high profile spot against the Coach Prime Show. Looking at Arizona's results so far and you'd think they'd be much more likely to compete with the Trojans than the Buffs were. The USC D probably took some heat in the film room after last week so will be looking for them to hold up their end up their end of the bargain and figure the offense will get its points. Fight on for a triple.
Woof, Trojans. Giants and Cowboys to finish the week, thanks.
Delete*Bears +6* Thursday Night
ReplyDeleteMiami -10.5
Oklahoma +6.5
Rutgers +12.5
AP - SF -3.5
Essay - New England +1 over New Orleans
I think this is a great spot to take the Patriots. After getting thumped at Dallas, Bill Belichick looks for career win #300 at home against a struggling Saints' offense. Derek Carr is playing hurt (he may need a second opinion from Dr. Deshaun) and the Saints' O Line is banged up. I also like the Saints' overall 0-3-1 ATS this season, along with last year's 4-5 mark after a loss and 3-8 as an underdog.
Bears (W)
ReplyDeleteMizzou 5.5 over LSU
Dolphins -10.5 over Giants
Cowboys 3.5 over SF (AP)
Eagles -4.5 over Rams
Essay: Jags 5.5 over Bills
Cheerio, Mates! The Jags get to remain at their home away from home in London, fresh off a dominating win of the Dirty Birds. Meanwhile, the Bills are traveling east after trouncing their division rival Dolphins in an emotional home game. The loss of top corner Tre'Davious White will open things up for the Kitties' passing attack. I don't expect the Jags D to slow down the Bills much, but think they keep it very close across the pond.
Ravens -4 @ Steelers
ReplyDeleteCardinals +3 v. Bengals
Michigan -19.5 @ Minnesota
Texas -6.5 @ Oklahoma
Colorado -4.5 @ Arizona St.
It's worked well for me so far, so let's do it again. All-play essay Part IV. The Santa Clara Forty-Niners are the best team in football. Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in football. They have a Swiss Army knife RB in Christian McCaffrey. And they use Deebo Samuel all over the field as well. Their defensive line led by Nick Bosa is one of the best and thier defense is one of the best because of this.
The Cowboys have a great defense, a good QB in Dak Prescott, and if not for Josh McDaniels in Vegas arguably the worst coach in the league. Although we saw last night that "Riverboat Ron" is firmly in this conversation. Anyway, Kyle ain't getting out-coached and his team will be ready to go against "America's Team" on the premier broadcast of the week. So let's give those points and lock up the '9ers for 3 biscuits this week.
Alabama - 1.5 to Texas A&M
ReplyDeleteTexas -6.5 to OU
Boise State -9.5 to SJSU
Bills -.5.5 to Jacksonville
9ers -3.5 to them Cowboys
ESSAY Chiefs -4 to the Vikings
Essay Chiefs -4 to the Vikings. This play (as a fan of an NFC North team) is a play that the Vikings are, actually not good. And they have 'regressed back to the mean' this year.
ReplyDeletePMahomes has a 'remember we are that good' game- with MaAuto getting a few good celebrations in with 2 TDs.
unc -8.5
ReplyDeletealabama -1.5
arizona +21.5
bills -5.5
broncos -1.5 essay to follow
a/p 49ers -3.5
hometeam
the broncos are a romantic pick. no doubt at this point denver fans are hate watching russell wilson (exposed as qb fraud) the same way ne fans hate watch belichick. white. hot. passion. but, weren't you excited for the return of sean peyton? broncos are 0-2 at home. yikes. if there's any chance of a get-right game it's today against the jets. strictly fingers crossed.
Deletebroncos -1.5
Cowboys +3.5
ReplyDeleteBaylor +1.5
Texans +2
Colts +2.5
Ravens -4
ESSAY: Texas -6.5 (Breaking a rule here -- Never pick games where my alma mater plays)
Football has evolved greatly; from the veer & wishbone to the I-formation to the run-and-shoot to the zone read, and the spread. Yet one thing remains true: control the line of scrimmage and you control the game.
Last year, I sat in the Cotton Bowl as Texas beat the Land Thieves 49-0. In that victory, Steve Sarkisian whipped Brent Venables and every player whipped the player across from them. One might think this would be a chip on OU's shoulder of epic proportions. But I am here to tell you that the Texas offensive line will dominate the OU front. On defense, T'Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy will not be pushed around.
It's 9:33 PM and OU still sucks. Hook 'Em Horns!
College:
ReplyDeleteGeorgia
UCLA
I'll add NFL tomorrow with essay.
NFL early:
DeleteJaguars
Will add the rest tomorrow.
Essay: Vikings. KC off horrendous ref show monday night bail out. I'm chronically down on the Chiefs and think they are basically overvalued (yes you can be overvalued winning super bowls) and rode that all last year. While off to a slightly better start this year I think it is more the same. Queens stink, but this is a must win spot. Nothing better than Kirk Cousins in that situation. Yikes. Have to do it tho.
DeleteOthers:
Patriots
All play:
Cowboys
mizzou +5.5 vs lsu
ReplyDeleteumd +19.5 at osu***
wazzu +3.5 at ucla
uk +14.5 at uga
cowboys +3.5 at niners
rams +4.5 vs eagles
lemme try this without researching, straight eye balls. every time the umd/iu came on multicast last week seemed like maryland was getting a big chunk. ryan day cant figure out how to get two more first round nfl wr's open against college defenses. maryland has a low buzz now and a tagavolalua at qb. i think maryland wins outright and the terp story bumps even coach prime out of the headlines.
OSU -19.5 over Maryland
ReplyDeleteAlabama -1.5 over Texas A&M
49ers -3.5 over Cowboys
DeleteFalcons -2 over Texans
Rams +4.5 over Eagles
Essay: Patriots +1 over Saints
Belichick's not really going to start 1-4, is he? There's a lot of talk about this being his last year with the Patriots, but I think he's dead-set on breaking Don Shula's all-time wins record. And for that to happen, he's going to have to coach several more years. Even without Brady, the Pats have never been *bad*—at worst (2020 Cam season; second half of last year) they've been a mediocre, middle-of-the-pack squad. So I think today's game against the Saints will be a step towards mediocrity—and a step away from bottom-of-the-barrel status—for the Patriots. The Saints' defense has been good, but they haven't scored more than 20 all year. The Pats will beat them.
AP: Cowboys +3.5
ReplyDeleteWake Forest +20.5
Old Dominion +1.5 (Essay)
Boise St. -9.5
Colts +2.5
Cardinals +3
Old Dominion and Southern Miss are nearly identical when it comes to the basic offensive and defensive stats. In theory this should be an even matchup. Both are coming in with meh records this season as well so it’s hard to argue who’s on a roll or has a winning special sauce. ODU has compiled their meh record against a better group of opponents than Southern Miss. Except for Florida St (who administered a beatdown) Southern Miss hasn’t really played anybody with any pedigree. ODU at least kept it within reason against some ok opposition, pointing to a better quality team and a 3 cheddar result.
Miami OH
ReplyDeleteJets
DeleteChiefs
Cowboys
DeleteWell, work and home life are seriously scheduled my ability to be a good participant in the competition this year. Was going to use my essay skip on the raiders tonight, but it's inside of an hour. So the raiders, one pointer.
DeleteCollege game Michigan by TKO (-19.5) over Minnesota
ReplyDeleteAll-Play Niners -3.5 over Cowboys
DeleteCardinals +3 over Bengals
Patriots +1 over Saints
Ravens -4 over Steelers
Essay Texans +2 over Falcons -- Picking this with a horrible sinking feeling that this is the week the bloom comes off the rose for CJ Stroud, but so far the Texans are a thoroughly surprising #11 in (now opponent adjusted) DVOA while the Falcons languish at #27. I don't care if it is a down year for the Steelers, last week's game killed the narrative of world-historical badness for the Texans, and the line still seems to be resting on it. I think this is an eminently winnable game for Houston and am happy to be able to get points.
FSU
ReplyDeleteAlabama
Arizona Wildcats
DeleteEssay: ND -6.5
DeleteI like what Marcus Freeman is doing, ten men on the field notwithstanding. I think we’ll find that losing to OSU on the final play is no great shame and they’re going to play USC very tough. Sam Hartman is very good and Estime is a heck of a back. Louisville is 5-0 on the strength of…eh? ND is far more battle tested and is carrying a 32 or so game win streak in ACC play. I think there will be a lot of Irish Green in Papa John’s stadium and Papa John himself will sweat profusely as the Irish win easily before the Trojans arrive.
Panthers
DeleteNiners
Missed college play :(
ReplyDeleteBengals -3 vs Cards
Eagles -4.5 vs Rams
Raiders +1 vs Packers
49ers -3.5 vs Cowboys
Vikings +4 vs Chiefs**
I like rooting against the best so going against paddy shovel pass mahomes is a favorite past time of mine. and vikings are all over the place and yet are 1-3 but cousins can sling it and jefferson and addison are a good combo. Shovel pass mahomes won't have his best in this game and this is a nice spot for minny. This is a tough place to play, and the minny fan will really enjoy rooting against super bowl winners. The chiefs will enjoy hearing the viking horn in their loss, as this game will look fondly over by their team as they are getting used to being the face of America now with the taylor swift and travis kelce romance.
Since the Chedder Bay admins refuse to cater to my Tuesday night football needs, I have to place my week 7, 10/10/23 essay here.
ReplyDeleteMiddle Tennessee-3
It makes no sense that MTSU is favored tonight. They almost never cover the spread (1-5 this year) or win (also 1-5 this year). They score an average of 7 points a game fewer than Louisiana tech. Their leading rusher has scored 1 touchdown. They allow an average of 6 more points per game than LT. The line has moved to favor LT since posting (and back again). Only 30% of the bets are currently on MTSA but 42% of the money. Their one advantage is their kicker has an 80% success rate while LT is only 55%. I’m going to go with the confusing line and the better kicker.
Week 7.
ReplyDeleteJust caught the threads FIU is wearing tonight. Vice U -3 v. UTEP
Week 7: WVU for a biscuit
ReplyDelete