Cheddar Bay Week Three: Browns -2.5 at Steelers
First of all, here is a link to this year's scoresheet. As usual the possibility does exist for mistakes to be made in the tabulation or god forbid the addition, so please post any corrections below. Also, would whoever has the Josh Allen voodoo doll please let me know what they are planning to do to it during upcoming Bills games.
Although we don't want to overdo it with the Browns all plays, this week we cannot see anything more compelling than the Monday night AFCN matchup. Congrats to Jmacdaddio on the year's first Lobsterfest, and here are the college lines and the pro lines for this week.
Vikings +6.5 for a biscuit
ReplyDeleteTHE Ohio University 3.5 over Iowa State
DeleteVikings (W)
DeleteOhio (W)
Bengals -3 over Ravens
Seahawks 4.5 over Lions
Browns -2.5 over Steelers
Essay: 49ers -7 over Rams
Week two is always my favorite week to bet every season. Overreaction city. I’m taking the Niners, down to -7 from that nasty hook.
Matt Stafford played out of his mind last week (in my eye, too, for my essay). But I am still banking on this rams team being B.A.D. Seattle (who I am backing this week again, see above) simply laid an egg against their division foe, at home. The Rams don’t have a home field advantage of note, particularly against their in-state, in-division rival whose fans might overtake the stadium. Niners are a unit; hoping they win me three units.
Sean McVay knew I essayed the Niners this week so he kicked a FG at the buzzer to lose by 7. Unreal lol
DeleteIllinois +14.5
ReplyDeleteDuke -18.5
Florida +6.5
Lions -4.5 - essay
Bucs -2.5
Browns -2.5 - all play
Time to get this one out of the way early. Illinois going to bounce back and keep it close at home against PSU who hasn't faced a real defense yet. Duke is an easy favorite against Northwestern. Florida will get right. Baker Mayfield playing with all the confidence will stream roll the hapless Bears at home. And as much as I love to fade the Browns, the Jim Schwartz D will put Kenny Pickett in hell Monday night.
But I have to essay the Lions. Lions played a B- game in Arrowhead and came away with the biggest program win in 30 years. Last year's worst defense in football now has a loaded secondary that makes plays. Aiden Hutchinson is disrupting every snap. And the offense will iron out the wrinkles this week in practice and come out very efficient at home. Ford Field will be so loud OSHA will mandate earplugs. Seattle wasn't prepared last week and they won't be prepared for what's awaiting them. I'm only laying 4.5? No problem.
Buck: Welcome to the broadcast booth; I'm Joe Buck, and I'm sure you know 1983 Typing Class State Champion, Troy Aikman. Troy, we recently paid our $110 entry fee, but even if we gotta pay it back later, there's an extra bit of satisfaction in using another fantasy league's treasury to pay it.
ReplyDeleteTroy: You're absolutely right, Joe. Time value of money, everyone knows that.
ALL PLAY: Steelers +2.5 (over Browns)
Tennessee -6.5 (over Florida)
Packers +1.5 (over Falcons)
Colts +1.5 (over Texans)
Lions -4.5 (over Seahawks)
ESSAY: Chiefs -3.5 (over Jaguars)
Buck: I'm just getting word that the owner of this Jacksonville broadcast booth has lifted the moratorium on Jags bets. We should probably take advantage of this while we can.
Troy: You betcha, and I think I know which way I'm going with a 1 PM game in Florida, and in the middle of September. These Midwest folks ain't built for it.
Buck: Are you worried about Chris Jones coming back to face a bad offensive line?
Troy: For sure, you gotta be, just based on their last playoff game. But Kelce was also a big part of that win, and he's expected to be out.
Buck: I'm getting word from the crew that Kelce practiced yesterday. What do you think, Troy?
Troy: Is it too late to bet on Red, partner?
Browns -2.5
ReplyDeleteMaryland -14.5
Dolphins -3
Saints -3
Purdue +2.5
Army +8.5
ESSAY:
Frank Harris has been a college QB as long as anyone, but hasn't transferred 47 times, like Rice's JT Daniels who must have a college qb punch card that gets him a free beer if he completes the circuit. While Harris is a good athlete and a savvy veteran, his opener against Houston was a weak one and his WR targets are not as promising this year as in years' past. His best asset is his mobility, but he is up against the definition of collegiate discipline: the Black Knights of West Point.
Jeff Traylor is an East Texas legend, having coached a championship program at Gilmer. He is often rumored to be on every short list of replacements for any collegiate coach in Texas who is on the hot seat (looking at you Jimbo Fisher). And there's good reason for that. He runs offense that kids want to play. He frequently has his teams punching above their weight. He's a players' coach and kids will lay it all out for him. He had a 10+ game win streak at the Alamodome, but here's the thing: Army has always played them close.
Give me Army and the points.
Voting the Eat Shit Pitt double:
ReplyDeleteBrowns -2.5
WVU -2.5
also:
Lions -4.5
Tennessee -6.5 at Florida essay
Wyoming +29.5
Essay:
Usually I get burned when I essay teams I root for, but I am just not seeing it with this year's Florida Gators, led by Graham Mertz. Mertz was not entirely awful against Utah, but the offense was, overall. The Gators utterly lack playmakers in the passing game, and although there is a talented backfield, the Gators also lack the patience and the offensive line to establish the run. I think UT gets out to a quick score or two with Joe Milton under center and the Vols are looking forward to finally finding success in Gainesville. You might have been fooled by the salad days of this rivalry (not sure many salads were involved for one of the coaches) but UT has only won five times in 21 trips to Gainesville. I think the Vols are fired up to make the Gators hurt, and until I am convinced otherwise, I just don't see the Gators being able to keep up. It won't be a total blowout, but UT wins by a few scores is my guess (34-17?).
Okay, revision time. Strike the Wyoming play above and substitute Cincinnati Bearcats -14.5 against Miami U.
DeleteI guess Week Three is all chalk. Maryland -14.5 to round it out.
DeleteTitans +3
ReplyDeleteNew England +3
Cincinnati -3
Indiana +10.5
AP - Steelers +2.5
Essay - Houston -1.5 over Indianapolis
All common sense tells me to run away from this game, especially since I'm essaying a rookie QB. But the Texans have been sneakily competitive in September in recent years and the DeMeco Ryans coaching staff has to sense a golden opportunity to notch their first win. The Texans were a strong 4-2 ATS within their division last year, while the Colts went 1-5. Further, I'm not trusting Anthony Richardson on the road against what looks to be a motivated and improved defense.
LSU -7.5
ReplyDeleteso carolina +26.5
lions -3 essay to follow
jacksonville +3
broncos -3.5
browns -1.5 a/p
....hometeam
detroit lions fans and more specifically detroit sports media believe no one can hate matt patricia more than they do. au contraire! n.e. fans have a white hot burning hatred of the arrogant tool and feel a kinship, a fraternal bond w lions fans. happily, the universe rewarded them w dan campbell. the head coach might be unconventional but his method shows results. players play for him. he knows it and he shows it. a jared goff offense could falter through a long season, however a first week win against kc gives them a huge boost. while seattle qb geno smith has survived the league long enough to deserve respect, the lions defense should easily manage his game at home at ford field.
Deletegive me detroit -4.5
hometeam
West Mi +28.5 vs Iowa
ReplyDeleteChargers -3 vs Titans
Lions -4.5 vs Seahawks
EP: Bears +2.5 vs Bucs…..Yeah I just don't think Chicago is that bad, I think there needs to be tape out on Jordan Love so the defenses can start to prepare. In about 2 more weeks, lets see how the Packers are doing. Having said all that, holy shit, does that Chase Claypool look like one of the dumbest trades in recent memory. I saw a few sequences from last week on some social media site this week and it looked horrifying. Like how is Mr. Claypool walking around Halas Hall right now reviewing that tape with his teammates. He appears to be taking plays off and getting blown up all over the field. He can't block, he has no rhythm with anyone, never did, they should cut him. And they traded the 32 pick in the draft for that guy. Jesus.
Dolphins -3 vs Pats
AP: Browns -2.5 vs Steelers
Browns
ReplyDeleteGeorgia -27.5
Northern Illinois +10.5
West Virginia -2.5
Syracuse -2.5
Wyoming +29.5 essay
This week the other Cowboys (Wyoming) get my big vote as I attempt a new algorithm to beat the system. Week 1 went well with the lack of good information to sway the general degenerate population toward maximum loss. Now we have to get a bit more clever to figure out what Vegas has in mind. This year I was forced to actually open an account with Vegas insider to get the details and they seem to have put some kind of tracker on me as last week my in box was filled with suggestions of Canadian Football bets. Back in the US this week and getting much more helpful ads. For only $199.95 a week(auto renewal) I can automatically get pick tips from High Volume Expert Micah Roberts. My dream is to have someone pay me that kind of money to make predictions-he went to the University of Nevada-so maybe there are some correspondence courses I could take to beef up my CV. Anyway, this week’s strategy is placing college votes on teams who have a higher % of money than bets. Top contenders are Syracuse and Wyoming with absolute % differences of 19 each. Technically Syracuse slightly edged out Wyoming with a 22%. Vs 20% relative difference, but the fixed vs fluid Cheddar Bay line favors Wyoming currently. Hopefully I will get a chance to hear them sing their fight song “Ragtime Cowboy Joe” which is about a man from Arizona- specifically one who sings to livestock and is a high-faluting, scooting, shooting,
son of a gun.
I am one lucky man
DeleteAll play: Bengals - Literally brutal performance last week for Cincy. Ravens on other hand weren't much better but got the clown show texans so it was fine. Bengals need this one and happy to lay the short number. They should be well focused and hopefully Burrow is not non-functional. I don't have much else to say other than this college card is abysmal. Real deep analysis.
ReplyDeleteOthers:
South Alabama
Illinois
Mizzou
Atlanta Falcons
All play: Steelers
***fsu -26.5 at bc
ReplyDeletedid anyone else see bc almost lose to holy cross week? was not a fluke. they were even in yards and possession. hc had ball in fg position with a minute to go and their qb dropped the ball while he was running. like it slipped out of his hands, bc didnt even force the one turnover that they got. im gonna go ahead an essay this in spite of the whole home dog theory. bc fans are soft af and it's raining here so hard to imagine more than 10,000 fans showing up and most of them will be for fsu. also: we know how bcs contenders tend to the spread. fsu ran up 45 on oklahoma and had no qualms about hanging 66 on southern miss. bc is closer to southern miss than oklahoma.
missy st +9.5 vs lsu
wku +29.5 at osu
gross and embarrassing picks yesterday.
Deleteon the plus side, quick story, my pc crashed while i was in a draftkings session last year and when i tried to log back in, dk forced me to undergo the whole kyc bullshit to access my account. hard no. thus i havent been able to bet stellar picks like yesterday's --> WIN!
bid to grab three points:
browns -2.5 at steelers
lions -4.5 vs hawks
bucs -2.5 vs bears
Welcome back football fans! Week 2, let's go!
ReplyDeleteColorado -23.5 v. Colorado St.: Wasn't going to play this until Jay Norvell got to talking.
Seahawks +4.5 @ Lions
Commanders +3.5 @ Broncos
Ravens -3 @ Bengals
Panthers +3 v. Saints
And I'm going back to the well again for my essay. The Browns are favored in Pittsburgh for the first time since George H. W. Bush was President. They just don't win in Pittsburgh. Doesn't happen. So why am I putting my 3 biscuits on the Cleveland M.F. Browns?
Cleveland is Cleveland. Many a Bengals, Steeler or Ravens team would say that they knew the Browns would fold as soon as adversity hit, so they never worried about getting behind and knew if they held a lead it was over. So the Browns is the Browns is true until it isn't. We'll find out Monday if it's different, but things feel different. The franchise has a swagger it never used to have. Jim Schwartz has transformed a defense that is multiple, plays fast, and plays to it's players' strengths. And can someone explain how Matt Canada continues to get coordinator jobs? Does he have pictures of people?
On the other side of the ball, the Cam Heyward injury is huge. He typically gives everyone fits, but especially future Hall of Famer Joel Bitonio. His absence allows the Browns to focus help on the OTs. Better weather should also help #4 for the Browns. If the Browns can get a lead and force Pittsburgh to throw, it will look like last week for both teams. Pittsburgh's best chance is a rock fight where they keep it close and steal a W.
I just think there is real confidence on the Browns sidelines and they're wearing their clean, clean all whites with the white hats. I firmly believe that a team that is dressed well plays well. And this has especially been the case with the Browns in recent years (see record in brown tops/orange pants vs. brown pants).
And the last time the Browns played as a favorite in Pittsburgh? Browns 51, Steelers 0. Go Browns!
Georgia Tech +18.5 over Ole Miss
ReplyDeleteLouisiana Tech -4.5 over North Texas
Ravens +3 over Bengals
DeleteTitans +3 over Chargers
Patriots +3 over Dolphins
DeleteEssay: Steelers +2.5 over Browns
I hate to do this. But when it comes to the prospect of the Browns' potential 2-0 start, I'm firmly in "I'll believe it when I see it" mode—which I think is a fair approach given that their last 2-0 start came in 1993. The jury is still out on whether Deshaun will ever return to his 2018-20 form, and last week's performance was more of what we saw out of him at the end of 2022. No doubt, the weather played a major factor in his disappointing (passing) game on Sunday. But as his post-Texans sample size increases, it becomes impossible not to wonder whether he'll ever justify the massive price the Browns paid for him. Anyway, this is an emotional hedge more than anything; if the Browns win, I'll be thoroughly overjoyed. A losing essay is a small price to pay for that.
Finally an elusive Lobsterfest result - I just hope the momentum continues.
ReplyDeleteFIU - 6.5
Minnesota +7.5 (Essay)
Vanderbilt -4.5
Fresno St. -3
All Play: Steelers +2.5
Jags +3.5
I’m staying away from Coach Prime this time around - it’s a wild story for sure, best not to go to the well one too many times. So moving up north, Minnesota is off to a good start this season. Their defense is stingy, and I think UNC’s offensive numbers are padded thanks to an overtime contest last week. We’ll see how they do away from home and outdoors. Look for Minnesota to keep it close - the touchdown spot should put them over the top.
Essay: Tennessee -6.5 to Florida
ReplyDeletePurdue +2.5 to Syracuse
Titans +3 to the Chargers
Bengals -3 to Ravens
9ers - 7 to the Rams
All play Steelers +2.5 to the Browns
Essay: Tennessee -6.5 to Florida
DeleteMy simple essay thesis is...I believe in Joe Milton more than I do Graham Mertz. (see disaster at Wisconsin).
High powered offense, and Vols haven't won in Gainsville since 2003.
Today is the day
College game Toledo -7.5 over San Jose State
ReplyDeleteLast minute early games:
DeleteBears +2.5 over Bucs
Chiefs -3.5 over Jags god help me
For the record I was going to essay the 49ers but it is way too late for that now... thank goodness for the two MNF games.
DeleteEssay Dolphins -3 over Patriots because I genuinely think that this time might be different and trying to get cute with underdogs has brought me nothing but disaster. Too early for DVOA to mean anything much but it's #7 vs #14. The biggest area of concern after week 1 for the Dolphins is the run defense but they were up against Austin Ekeler.
Saints -3 over Panthers and Browns -2.5 over Steelers to make up 6.
Will go with Florida +5 over the Life Champions of Tennessee for my college vote this week, one point please. Back tomorrow with 5 NFLs.
ReplyDeleteRavens, Falcons, Giants, and Jets for today. CMFB Essay tomorrow.
DeleteGoing to rely a bit on my opening week Browns essay here to double or nothing. These Browns are better than the Steelers at almost every position and the group of young stars on this defense appears to have finally gelled in some substantial sense. I would like to think that recent history (as in since 1999) is the only thing keeping this line where it is. One thing you can say about the Stefanski era is that -- for the first time since the prematurely stunted Mangini era - the culture actually seems to have changed in the Cleveland locker room. Credit where credit is due. Any given Monday and all that but I will be genuinely surprised if the Browns don't win this comfortably by a touchdown and if they don't I will be even more shocked if there's not some clear shenanigans from the zebras to blame it on. If the latter is the case you know old frowner will be ready. Finally, if you didn't listen to it last week you still have a chance to listen to this bizarre segment that Jason LaCanfora did on Baskin & Phelps where he, in so many words, picks the Steelers to finish well ahead of the Browns this season based on some of the thinnest reasoning you'll ever here from a so-called professional. https://www.audacy.com/923thefan/sports/jason-la-canfora-browns-skill-positions-not-ahead-of-afc
DeleteSays here that Browns end the night tied with Ravens and Canfora keeps chewing on crow. 3 points please.
Gators +6.5 against Tennessee
ReplyDeleteuntil proven otherwise.
Falcons -1.5
DeleteTexans -1.5
Cards +4.5
Rams +7
Browns -2.5
Essay to follow
Browns essay
DeleteCleveland looking like a well balanced team this year. Running the ball, some weapons in the passing game, and aggressive defense. Miles Garrett getting help on the D Line from Smith, Grant Delpit making solo tackles 4 yards short of the sticks on third down. Passes defensed by committee. The Steelers have Matt Canada calling plays with Kenny Pickett looking like he is not the long term answer. WR looking thin with Diontae Johnson on IR today. And Cam Heyward is out which should help rookie RT Dawand Jones get his feet under him in his first start. Browns by 10.