The Exec. Comm. brings good tidings to all for Christmas, the holidays, and this final week of the regular season, the last day of which is Monday, 12/30, with a mandatory playoff pick due on 12/31 for Penn State at Boise State as well as other discretionary college games available on 12/31 (final format TBA). This week we've got Packers @ Vikings for the all play. For Wednesday and Thursday's games, the lines are as follows: Chiefs -2.5 at Steelers; Ravens -5.5 at Texans; Seahawks -3.5 at Bears; Pitt -7 v. Toledo; Rutgers +7 v. Kansas State; and Arkansas State +8.5 v. Bowling Green. The rest of the college lines are here , and NFL lines here . Please make sure to check back in on Monday or Tuesday morning for the final playoff format. Top 8 make the playoffs with ties for the 8th spot to be resolved by week to week sudden death competition. The standings (not updated yet after last week) are here . Happy holidays and best wishes to all for the sprint to th...
Giants +10 over SF
ReplyDeleteBuckeyes -3 over ND
Bama -7 over Ole Miss
DeleteGiants (L)
DeleteBama (W)
Buckeyes (Miraculous push)
Bengals -3 over Rams (asked my 5 year old to pick a helmet, and this is the one she liked…training her early!)
Raiders -2.5 over Rams
Essay: Broncos 6.5 over Miami
Holding my nose and betting on a Sean Payton/Russ desperation, “backs against the wall” type game. Waddle out, so Surtain can shadow Tyreek. Broncos offense has been surprisingly good to start. I capped this at about 4.5 so plugging my nose and taking the points.
In honour of Wexner and his dearly departed protege let's see if the G-Men (+10) hit the spot tonight in San Fran (for one point).
ReplyDeleteAlert! Alert! POTY! POTY!
Delete*The Curse of Les Wexner: How long will the good people of Ohio allow the name of Jeffrey Epstein’s most prominent benefactor to be plastered all over its public buildings?*
Blogger is saying my essay is too long to post here so here it is at this link:
https://www.clevelandfrowns.com/2023/09/the-curse-of-les-wexner-how-long-will-the-good-people-of-ohio-allow-the-name-of-jeffrey-epsteins-most-prominent-benefactor-to-be-plastered-all-over-its-public-buildings/
Irish +3 for my Play of the Year.
I will also take Florida State, Colorado, Arkansas, and Cal to round out my slate. I am off to South Bend folks!
DeleteStrike FSU and give me Rutgers/Chop Nation instead please and thank you
DeleteBuck: Welcome to the Jacksonville broadcast booth; I'm Joe Buck, and I'm with analytics hater Troy Aikman. Troy, I have a feeling FOX is going to play us out to commercial with a sad tune when we mention Alan Williams. How do they make a sad tune out of triumphant war music? It's like making a sad version of "America: Fuck Yeah".
ReplyDeleteTroy: You're absolutely right, Joe.
ALL PLAY: Notre Dame +3 (over Ohio State)
Ravens -8.5 (over Colts)
Cardinals +12.5 (over Cowboys)
Steelers +2.5 (over Raiders)
Eagles -4.5 (over Bucs)
ESSAY: Chiefs -12.5 (over Bears)
Buck: Troy, that was a clutch Chiefs bet last week. We gotta keep this essay streak going with another one, right?
Troy: Heh, is this a trick question, Joe? I think the Bears are gonna lose by a hundred. Obviously, that's not how the NFL works. Coaches can only control so much... but I didn't think the Bears were all that talented to begin with. Andy Reid was a little disappointed by their points scored last week and will take this golden opportunity to boost their confidence.
Buck: But it was the Chiefs defense that looked really good and could be the key to winning this bet.
Troy: You're absolutely right, Joe, and L'Jarius Sneed will be all over the Bears' only position player threat, DJ Moore. His name should be well known among corners, but it isn't.
Buck: You just found out about him, didn't you?
Troy: You're absolutely right, Joe.
Buck: Do you have an opinion on the Alan Williams scandal?
Troy: It's just hilarious that the Bears clearly want to pretend the guy never existed, but they also act like they're doing us a favor with their public statements. Ryan Poles was patting himself on the back for transparency. It's bizarre and clear as mud, Joe.
Buck: We'll be right back.
FOX: *sad outro*
Vikings -1.5
ReplyDeletePackers -1.5
Lions -3
Eagles -1.5
AP - OSU -3
Essay - Dolphins -6.5 over Chargers
I'm hoping I got my Annual Really Dumb Pick of the Year out of the way last week. Who knew taking the Texans led by a rookie QB was not the best pick? Anyway, I'll try to smarten up this week and take the red hot Dolphins over what's perhaps the worst team in the league in Denver. Miami is 2-0 ATS, and boasted a 6-2 ATS mark After a Win and 4-2 as a Home Favorite last season. I'll take the Dolphins in the miserable Florida humidity led by one of the best QB's in the league.
Speaking of which, Tua goes against Russell Wilson, who has turned into a pedestrian QB after the Broncos mortgaged their future for him last year. I think this is an understated theme around the league - teams who have made big time moves for QB's are heading towards disaster (Denver, NY Jets, Cleveland, Chicago, and possibly Carolina). Meanwhile, the teams who settled for mediocre/bridge QB's (Raiders, Tennessee, Seattle, Tampa, New Orleans) are at least treading water if not outright succeeding.
This brings to me to my final point - which is a completely unfounded, but totally plausible explanation for Deshaun Watson's continued failure as Browns' QB. His erratic play, mental breakdowns, inability to process and completely inane interviews and press conferences suggest that he has suffered an Antonio Brown-level of CTE. This is NOT the same QB who played in Houston or at Clemson. Watson's brain is severely damaged....and now without Nick Chubb, he's about to be further exposed.
Notre Dame +3
ReplyDeleteTexas -14.5
Illinois -15.5
Florida State -2.5 (ESSAY)
Steelers +2.5
Commanders +6.5
Essay:
The Dabo Swinney Era is at the beginning of a deep and lasting downturn. Dabo has not consistently recruited the players for the wide open spaces that the evolving college game requires.
The first area is defensive line. Whereas he had any number of NFL-prospects as interior defensive linemen, the current group struggles to control the line of scrimmage. Similarly, the offensive line has a number of question marks. Notably, the left tackle position is timeshared between Tristan Leigh and Collin Sadler. Much like they say about quarterbacks, "if you have two LT's, you likely have none". That's not really fair as Leigh has more than enough ability, just not the experience.
I'm a big believer in Cade Klubnik and I actually preferred his HS film over Connor Weigman (Texas A&M) and Nick Evers (Oklahoma). Yet, he hasn't always looked comfortable. He's tough and he's eager to run, but sometimes success has to come from standing in the pocket , reading a defense, and delivering the football down the field.
And these questions may be answered eventually. But eventually is unlikely to be Saturday, and it's unlikely to be against Florida State. Sure, Florida State were the luckiest people to escape Boston since the tax collector of the 1770s, but the Seminoles are extremely loaded on offense and defense. I love me some Johnny Wilson and I just think the Seminole pass rush will be too much for Clemson. I'll gladly lay 2.5 points here and take FSU for the dub.
Purdue +5.5
ReplyDeleteFlorida State -2.5
Utah -5.5 *essay*
Steelers +2.5
Buccs +4.5
All play. Notre Dame +3.
Essay Utah -5.5.
DeleteI am playing the idea that Utah has been more tested - beating Florida and Baylor (just skip the idea that they beat up FCS Weber State).
Also - local rumor has it that Cam is gonna be on the sideline ready to play.
I like Utah. I like Utah over 9.
I think this is an over. I think each defense is swiss cheese.
fsu -2.5
ReplyDeletecolorado +21
ole miss +7
osu -3
hometeam
lions -3
Deletebills -6.5 essay
the bills took a poke in the face week 1, reviewed their offensive game plan then week 2 took a conservative win. josh allen should be back to his tight, accurate confident style this week. the washington 2-0 record is not reflective of their play. qb sam howell has been sacked 10 times against teams w mediocre defenses. the bills will be a tougher test. washington has improved their franchise but this week the win is buff -6.5
Virginia tech +4.5
ReplyDeleteBoston college +13.5
UConn+21.5
Cardinals+12.5
Ohio state-3
Something weird is going on in the betting world with the Colts. Donbest lists them as cold cold cold while the Raven’s trends are hot hot hot. Vegas insider reports 79% of the money but only 38% of the bets are on the Colts and the line hasn’t moved significantly in favor of the Ravens to shift the money. In the last 10 matchups the Colts have won every time they were favored and lost all but once when they were the underdog. Basically they aren’t a mediocre team. They vacillate between being a good team and a bad team, which is to say they are bad now, but that doesn’t mean they can’t cover. Colts cover +8.5 (no everybody wins outcome today) but lose.
DeleteEssay: UCLA - Few reasons for this one. Line is suspiciously low and moving down. Second, new UCLA qb Moore has tons of upside and plays in an offense that should allow a young QB to limit mistakes (lots of running). Third, I have UCLA pegged as a team that should benefit from the new clock rules as they can shorten games, particularly on the road.
ReplyDeleteOthers:
Cincinnati Bearcats
Alabama
Clemson
Vikings
All play: Ohio St.
notre dame +3 vs osu
ReplyDeletepurdue +5.5 vs wisc
olemiss +7 at bama
titans +3.5 at browns
Deletefalcons +3 at lions
***dolphins -6.5 vs broncos
just sniffing around for name brands in a downturn. the browns/lions show every sign that talent means little in the face of slow painful history and thus in some cases team branding is impossible to escape, the broncos brand as a successful club.. well is it really that well earned? their fans bring the expectations of steelers and pats fans, but really? broncos are more in that bills tier. ANYWAY, i think there's value in fading their underserved public team status. dolphins meantime are a legit brand with a legit team and their front running fans ought to turn out for them today.
It really is the history in these areas that is so hard to get beyond isn't it. The brand aspect is interesting. Seems like it needs to catch the right time and place in the world to catch fire from the outside fanbase that is sustained by fitting in with the local citizens worldview.
DeleteChargers +1.5 @ Vikings
ReplyDeleteBills -6.5 @ Commanders
Maryland -7.5 @ Michigan St.
Washington -20.5 v. Cal
Oklahoma -13.5 @ Cincinnati
I know I don't get the points for last week's essay, but I was correct on the analysis. The Browns dominated the game, but the oblong spheroid sometimes bounces oddly and the obvious result isn't what it should be. That's why we love the game. So why not essay the all-play for the third consectutive week.
Ohio St. has better athletes than Notre Dame. Ohio St. has consistently played in bigger games than Notre Dame. Ryan Day is a more proven coach than Marcus Freeman. Sam Hartman, I've been told, is something like 6 months away from being eligible for Social Security, while Kyle McCord will hopefully start shaving in the next 6-months to a year. And especially in college football, the home team gets an advantage. But some ticket brokers have estimated the crowd will only be 60/40 Notre Dame on Saturday night. If that is the case, this will be the equivalent of a Buckeye home game under the auspices of Touchdown Jesus. Green jerseys, gold hats, shamrock underwear, it won't matter. Both teams being drown-out on their snap count or where the crowd isn't a factor is a win for the Buckeyes. So we'll give those points as THE Ohio State University continues their almost 90 year win streak over the Irish.
Ohio State -3 (AP)
ReplyDeleteTulsa +3.5
West Virginia +5.5
UCF +5.5 (Essay)
Packers -1.5
Broncos +6.5
This essay is a bit of a gamble (poor choice of words?) given that UCF is without their starting QB. How many times have we seen in college ball a second or third stringer step in and deliver? I’d argue that in many cases, losing your NFL #1 QB is more of an effect than losing your NCAA #1 QB. UCF has a balanced attack with a good rushing game, so I expect them to put up some points and stay in the game. A 5.5 point spot should put them over the edge against a below average K-State team.
UCF +4.5 (time for new glasses)
DeleteND +3 for a biscuit
ReplyDeletemore single biscuit plays:
DeleteUK -13.5
Colorado +21
Essay: UNC -7.5 at Pitt
Mack Brown on UNC signal caller Drake Maye: “Drake was hot and I’ve never seen him better. It’s like it was with Colt McCoy,” said UNC coach Mack Brown, who coached the former Texas great from 2006-09, a career in which McCoy was a two-time Heisman finalist. “If Colt McCoy ever threw an incompletion, we all said what’s wrong with him. That’s the way it is with Drake right now.
Meanwhile, Pitt's quarterback play is abysmal, to the point where WVU players were openly mocking it. Pitt had absolutely no ability to get back into a winnable game against a big rival. True, they're at home this week--does Pitt have any kind of home edge?--but the talent level of the opponent increases considerably. UNC has dispatched decent South Carolina and Minnesota teams, whereas Pitt lost at home to a Cincinnati team that turned around and choked against Miami OH as big favorites. 7.5 points does not seem like a lot given how hot UNC's offense has been. I expect Pitt to playing from behind all day, and to lose by 10+.
Raiders laying and Bucs getting
DeleteWhile not strictly a part of this competition, I hope you all inquire with your favorite sports wagering application about the Teams in Hell Parlay: Chiefs -12.5, Maryland -7.5. Chicago has a very strong contingent of Spartans and they are down horrendous. Please extend your thoughts and prayers.
ReplyDeleteChiefs -12.5
Lions -3
Maryland -7.5 - essay
Notre Dame +3
FSU -2.5
Rutgers +24
This essay comes from the files of "Now Skip I need to address something." And this goes out to all Spartan fans who seem to believe that Mel Tucker has somehow doomed the program to another 8 years of mediocrity. They're almost treating it like its as bad as the Joe Paterno fallout, and that the program has to be rebuilt from the ground up or whatever. The funny thing is that the media attention about the Tucker firing has been relatively tame, so I know it's not a reaction to that. My only conclusion is that MSU fans continue to have a mindset of fear that does not demand excellence, and they continually allow themselves to be browbeaten into embracing Pat Shurmur as the next head coach. Of course, Mel Tucker himself took over a team devoid of talent, went 2-1 against Michigan, made the Peach Bowl his second year, and Deion Sanders is putting on the very public display of how little time you actually need to get your shit together in the portal era.
It is not easy to identify the right head coach that deserves the re-routed MSU coaching Brinks truck, but it is simple. There will be elite head coaches to be hired. MSU can hire that coach and give him all the resources to hire elite assistants and offer elite marketing opportunities to elite prospects. Make the right hire and you go back to competing for conference championships, just like every other program that has to fire their coach.
All that being said, we're about to catch another ass-whooping from Maryland. Sorry guys.
All Play Notre Dame +3 over OSU
ReplyDeleteChargers +1.5 over Vikings
DeletePatriots -2.5 over Jets
Packers -1.5 over Saints
Bills -6.5 over Commanders
Essay Seahawks -6.5 over Panthers -- The Panthers got a fluky push in garbage time last Monday but now they're on a short week, traveling to the West Coast, and Bryce Young is injured. I do not believe that Andy Dalton in his mid thirties is going to galvanize this offense. Apparently DK Metcalf is playing. I think laying a TD is pretty reasonable here.
Browns -3.5 vs Titans***essay
ReplyDeleteWith this defense, and capable special teams, as long as the browns get an above average performance from Deshaun, they should win this game fine. Cool to be able to bring Hunt back. This two running back thing maybe has its merits. The last time Titans showed up in cle they cleaned the browns clocks. Nick Chubb jumping over Minkah Fitzpatrick for years and it makes sense that a steeler dude takes a major cheap shot. Who's surprises that the Browns left Pittsburgh with a starter with a season ending injury? Nice to know some these don't change. However with year 4 of the same regime and players, they are deep enough and relational prioritized enough to flourish under stress….assuming that is that we get some better quarterback play?!?!?
AP: OSU -3 vs ND
Packers -1.5 vs Saints
Lions -3 vs Falcons
Bengals -3 vs Rams
Hawaii -3 vs New Mexico St
Ole Miss +7 over Bama
ReplyDeleteND +3 over OSU
Browns -3.5 over Titans
DeleteBears +12.5 over Chiefs
Bucs +4.5 over Eagles
Essay: Rams +3 over Bengals
Did anyone see that bizarre video of Bengals owner Mike Brown driving around Joe Burrow in a golf cart at practice this week? The vibes seem off in Cincy, even more so than when the Bengals started 0-2 a year ago. Despite the sense of urgency, Burrow may sit this one out after aggravating his calf injury at the end of last week's loss, and if he does, Jake Browning will be starting against the Rams—yes, the guy that guided Washington to the CFP in 2016 and has done absolutely nothing since. Meanwhile, the Rams looked potent in Week 1 against a solid Seahawks squad; yes, they came back down to Earth in their Week 2 loss to the 49ers, but the 49ers are probably the best team in the NFL right now. I'd take the Rams on the moneyline, and I love them getting 3.
OSU -3
ReplyDeleteUTEP +2.5
DeleteRaiders
DeleteBucs
DeleteRams +3 essay
DeleteDue to my evolving inability to prioritize the most important things, here i am dropping a Monday night football essay in the AFC North. I'll take the Rams +3 against whoever the Bengals trot out at QB, knowing full well this has push written all over it. Aaron Donald is still over there to chase around Burrow with a hobbled calf, or AJ Mccarron off the street. He doesn't care. The Rams hung in there against the best team in the league last week. I loved the FG to push the spread. Sketchy as hell! Hope they do it again tonight.