Cheddar Bay Week Five: Dolphins +3 at Bills (1 PM Sunday)
Essay hit rate was up last week and we had two Admiral's Feasts courtesy of Residue Dogs and CapGG. Scores are up to date and hopefully correct.
College lines are here, pro lines are here, and happy picking to all.
Packers +2 for a biscuit and emotional hedge
ReplyDeleteGophers -11.5
DeleteGeorgia -14.5 essay
LSU -2.5
EMU +7.5
When does Georgia lose again? What seemed in the preseason to be a soft regular season schedule is getting tougher as Florida and Mizzou look much improved. Georgia struggled to put away South Carolina for a couple of quarters, but there’s some recent historical precedent to that. In between that tough conference opener and the getting tougher by the week back end of the schedule is a battle against traditional rival Auburn on the Plains (every SEC school has like four rivals FYI).
Here’s the problem: Auburn sucks bad. Georgia wins are becoming increasingly workmanlike as their winning streak reaches the 20s, so it may be tempting to take auburn and the points. But I would not trust Spartans transfer QB Payton Thorne against this athletic defense that is an NFL factory of late. Georgia is superior in every facet, is more athletic, AND it hates Auburn. Auburn’s FBS wins are UMass and Cal, barely. UGA in fact handled Auburn 42-10 last year and I don’t think the gap between the teams narrowed at all. I like Georgia to pull away in the second half for the easy cover.
Montgomery and Decker are active, give me a Lions single
ReplyDeleteKentucky -1.5
DeleteDuke +5.5
Dolphins +3
Ravens +2.5 - essay
Vikings -4
This essay is based on the news that Deshaun Watson is probably not playing. The possibility of the Ravens getting points against Dorian Thompson-Robinson's first career start is just too good to pass up, particularly in a weak slate where the best game was played Thursday night. Plus I am a noted Kevin Stefanski hater. That said, the Ravens haven't impressed many people so far, and if Watson does play, this may look foolish. What're you gonna do
lions -2
ReplyDeletehometeam
nc state +3.5
Deleteeastern michigan +7.5
lsu -2.5
so carolina +6.5
bills -3 essay to follow
a week when the broncos play the bears - of course fans flock to a quality match-up like dolphins v bills. as a patriots fan we simply want every team in the afc east to punish bill belichick so we can be free from his tyranny. can't be fired but has to go. sorry, he's not bill walsh he's tom landry. a defensive mastermind, belichick lost his h.c. fastball without ernie adams. general belief in patriots nation is last week's special teams play was designed by adams. today we feast on two michelin star afc east teams. dolphins have weapons but it's easier to have faith in josh allen. week 1 left a mark. the bills are ready for a deep season and have started to demonstrate the desire to be battle tested. past seasons' disappointments have taught them to take this year 1 game at a time.
Deletestart today. bills -3
Lions -2
ReplyDeleteNC state +3.5
DeleteBills -3
Commanders +8.5
Illinois +1.5
NFL is interesting. Giants are killed by the Cowboys, giants beat Cardinals. Cardinals bear Cowboys. What is more predictable is the confusion that this causes for the average better. 73% of the bets but only 42% of the money is on Seattle. Weirdly that is slightly better than a few days ago when NYG had 72% of the money and 29% of the bets, but the line has stayed the same. NY has not covered the spread this year so as trends go, this one is set to break, as in Vegas set it to break because they don’t like trends. Monday night football with the Manning brothers will be fun. And an additional fun fact is my brother did the AV set up at Eli’s house for the program. Hopefully the game won’t be flooded out. NYG +1.5
DeleteUtah +3.5 Friday night
ReplyDeleteNotre Dame -5.5
Washington -19.5
Nebraska +16.5
Purdue -1.5 (essay)
Bills -3 (All Play)
Purdue -1.5
ReplyDeleteTwo terrible teams with a BigTen style of play. Slow, and boring. Purdue wins in a low scoring game- like 17-14 or something. Alma Mater pick, but I will say, I don't like that my QB's name is Hudson Card. Seems like a guy I would punch in the face, which would probably lead to another interception.
I watched Hudson Card take a lead on Alabama in the fourth quarter on a gimpy ankle. True baller. It hasn't really worked out for him, but he'll never blame anyone else and he'll always give you 100%. He has a bad habit of getting up on his toes on the deep ball, but his arm has action and he's more athletic than people will usually admit. And yes, that's a damned fine QB name.
DeletePittsburgh NFL -3
ReplyDeleteColorado +21.5
Syracuse +6.5
Oregon -27.5
AP - Miami +3
Essay - SF -14 over Arizona
I'll continue riding with the league's hot teams this week. I'll take the league's most complete team in the 49ers to cover 14 at home against the Cardinals. Arizona likely played their game of the year last week vs. Dallas and such young (tanking) teams tend to get exposed by this point in the season. And while I love preseason Josh Dobbs, I don't envy him going against a fairly rested Niners defense. I can also see a narrative that the 49ers will be fired up to go against Philly's ex-DC...with a healthy starting QB. Finally, I'll take the 49ers' 7-0 ATS record within their division (dating back to Brock Purdy becoming QB1), along with a 9-1 home favorite record.
Buck: Welcome to the Jacksonville broadcast booth for the fifth week, where only the Residue Dogs have more biscuits than us. I'm Joe Buck, and you may know Troy Aikman from his role in Jerry Maguire. Troy, the Residue Dogs have a sizeable lead, but this feels a lot like Family Feud, where the bets at the end of the season are the only thing that matters.
ReplyDeleteTroy: You're absolutely right, Joe. Just get to the bonus round.
ALL PLAY: Bills -3 (over Dolphins)
Iowa -12.5 (over Michigan State)
Broncos -3 (over Bears)
Ravens +2.5 (over Browns)
Seahawks +1.5 (over Giants)
ESSAY: Bengals -2.5 (over Titans)
Buck: Well, it's a bold play counting on the health of Joe Burrow to beat the Titans and the spread. Do you have experience with that kind of injury?
Troy: Yeah, Joe, I do, and I threw for 300 yards against the Packers the next week. I mean, it hurts your ability to scramble, and we saw that against the Rams last week. But that offensive line knows what it needs to do, and they're capable. The Titans are just not as good as the Bengals, and the Bengals don't have the luxury to take them lightly. Obviously, Burrow could reinjure the calf, and then all bets are off...
Buck: ...no pun intended...
Troy: ...that's right, and there's no such thing as a safe bet. Can't play scared, Joe.
One biscuit on my Wolfpack +3.5 tonight thank you
ReplyDeleteAuburn, Kansas, Notre Dame for a biscuit each today please and thanks
DeleteSo I guess I only do Browns and Irish essays now. Going to put my three pointer on Notre Dame tonight. Everybody’s been making a lot of all the basketball schools being good at football now which just goes to show how much more everything is about money than culture these days but I don’t see this trend playing out with much force in Durham tonight. I was at the game in South Bend last week and the air was so thick you could have cut it with a butter knife. The Irish had no business losing that game and I don’t see them losing another until at least the post-season. Everyone knew this team would play defense but the offense seems nearly as good and flying under the radar. They should have had at least 17 more points than they did last week. I don’t think Duke keeps it close tonight.
DeleteBrowns and Bills to finish
DeleteALL PLAY: Bills -3
ReplyDeleteNew Mexico +14.5 at Wyoming
Utah St. -5.5 vs UConn
Rice -3.5 vs East Carolina
Ole Miss +2.5
Eagles -8.5 (Essay)
Essay: When in the course of human events, a sport is played that involves violence directed at primarily one player -- in this case, we will call him a "quarter-back" -- it would behoove the team employing said player to protect their investment with a requisite number of competent large humans who can at least get in the way of other large humans trying harm this individual.
The Washington Commanders (God, that's really the best they could come up with?) have not protected their investment. I really like Sam Howell, the player. For a mid-to-late round pick, Washington got a steal. Unfortunately, Sam is the quarterback because he may only last a quarter in this game. Through three games, he has been sacked 19 times, which would put him on pace to be sacked 107 times. They cannot protect their first year signal caller and, while he is game for trying to will this sad franchise to victory, he is paying the universe for the karma associated with their previous moniker and their criminal past owner(s).
As much as I think Nick Sirianni is an unprofessional and impressively punchable individual (see hot mic moments in 2022), his team is actually quite good with a capable and fierce defensive front. His offense revolves around two elite wide receivers and the revelation that is D'Andre Swift. Jalen Hurts has proven me wrong in his short NFL career. He still seems to regress to a one-read QB, but as long as no one can force him to read the whole field, then I guess it's game on. Give me the Eagles here and you can have the points.
Essay: Bears - 0 for this campaign's essay plays. Like a bunch on this card and was hard to whittle down. Two bad teams. Two teams that had some hope going into the year. Both are really bad. Russ has been washed for years tho and was washed in Seattle too. There is no fixing him. Fields may never get off the ground, but perhaps they can show some of the smallest shred of life here. I'll take the small number in this guaranteed shitfest.
ReplyDeleteOthers:
USC
Ole Miss
Titans
Colts
All play: Bills
Falcons +3 @ Jacksonville
ReplyDeletePanthers +4 v. Vikings
Akron -2.5 v. Buffalo
Michigan -16.5 @ Nebraska: Pretty sure Michigan wins this by exactly 17.
Texans +3 v. Steelers
If it ain't broke don't fix it. I've essayed the All-Play for 3 straight weeks, so let's do 4. What we've seen out of Miami's offense so far has been other worldly. It's like they're playing 15 on 11 with guys running open all over the place and Tua finding everyone. Buffalo is coming of their own blowout win, but no one is talking about it. But in this one I like the home team. New England undermanned this year was able to give the Dolphins a game. The Bills are like the Super Patriots and with it being a division game, they know Mike McDaniel's tricks so they won't look like the Broncos. I don't love a team coming off record setting day having to step up in competition. So I'll take the Bills and the points in this one for 3 big fluffy, cheesy biscuits.
LSU -2.5 over Ole Miss
ReplyDeleteBoise State +3.5 over Memphis
Bills -3 over Dolphins
DeleteSteelers -3 over Texans
Rams +1.5 over Colts
Essay: Ravens +2.5 over Browns
I swear I was going to essay the Ravens before the news broke that DTR is starting—both as an emotional hedge and because it's hard to see the Browns starting 3-1 given their offensive woes. True, last week's outing against Tennessee was an improvement, but that doesn't erase how the passing game looked in Weeks 1 and 2. And without Nick Chubb, everything is riding on DTR to light up the Ravens' (admittedly depleted) secondary. Maybe he does, but that's a lot to ask of a fifth-round rookie. The defense will keep the Browns in this one, but Baltimore will pull away in the fourth quarter to the tune of something like 23-13.
neb +16.5 vs um
ReplyDeleteaub +14.5 vs uga
ku +16.5 at texas
gaso -6.5 vs coastal
dolphins
Deletetitans +2.5 vs bengals
Deletei'm starting to the bengals arent that good. i'll add that i'm starting to think the browns defense is a generational occurance. in other words, titans don't suck as bad as the browns made them look. we, above any other fan group, understand the toll that a shitty offense takes on an otherwise decent defense. five three-and outs; five first downs total; 94 total yds. the titans defense was on the field the whole game, browns couldnt help but score. vrabel remains a legit coach and titans probably think they can win the weak afcsouth. bengals havent shown any guts this year. ill take the home dog.
Central Michigan -7.5 over Eastern
ReplyDeleteFalcons +3 over Jax
DeleteBaylor +12.5
ReplyDeleteHawai’i +10.5
Iowa -12.5 (Essay)
AP: Bills -3
Vikings -4
Saints -3
The ‘Macdaddios are starting to revert to the mean after a good start, let’s see if it can be reversed. Michigan St was on the receiving end of a beatdown at home vs the mighty Terrapins of Maryland. To me, the Recent Beatdown Index favors Iowa (road beatdowns count less, also factor in the ranking of the opponent) since Maryland really shouldn’t be beating down on anyone, never mind a large school opponent with some history to their program. Offensive stats favor Michigan St slightly, while defensive stats favor Iowa slightly. I’m going with the belief that last week’s beatdown at Penn St was a blip in the Iowa season.
Disclaimer: the Recent Beatdown Index isn’t a real metric. I don’t have a series of supercomputers chugging away to come up with it, since that would raise the electric bill to an unacceptable level… degeneracy is expensive in many ways.
ND -5.5 vs Duke
ReplyDeleteLSU -2.5 vs Ole Miss
EP: Browns -2.5 vs Ravens*
Perhaps we are off the roller coaster deshaun games, and he settles in a top 10 QB and more accurate thrower like we saw last week. When he wasn't throwing this week due to his sore shoulder, there was not a dip in the confidence level from the fanbase. And why should there be? With a historic defense thus far, and a brilliant 5th round rookie quarterback waiting in the wings. I mean I hope he doesn’t need to play yet, but there's a level confidence of the fanbase if/when he goes in that you just have to love. Baltimore has pretty good wr options now, but no featered running backs currently, and Andrew berry designed this defense to neuter lamar jackson and I expect they want to keep showing off in front of the home crowd.
AP: Dolphins +3 vs Bills
Niners -14 vs Cards
Vikings -4 vs Panthers
Oregon -27.5 over Stanford I suppose
ReplyDeleteAll Play Dolphins +3 over Bills
DeleteSteelers -3 over Texans
Rams +1.5 over Colts
... and a couple more to be named later.
Ugh. Chargers -5.5 over Raiders
DeleteEssay Chiefs -9.5 over Jets -- going with this one over the 49ers ceremonial execution because a) I didn't have time to get the pick in by 3 PM and b) I like this being the right side of 10 points. I think I was the only person to pick against the Jets last week but they came through for me with a truly diabolical performance against the not-great Pats. Admittedly, the Chiefs have not played anyone much but they absolutely destroyed the Bears, and the Jets are closer to the Bears than they are to the Lions. DVOA isn't opponent adjusted yet, but for what it's worth, this is #6 vs #28 even taking into account what happened in week 1. I will lay the points.
DeleteNevada +24.5
ReplyDeleteFalcons +3
DeleteBills -3
Cards +14
DeleteChiefs -9.5
DeleteCMU (L)
ReplyDeleteATL +3 over Jax
Bills -3 AP
Colts -1.5 over Rams
Commanders 8.5 over Philly
Essay: Niners -14 over Arizona
Well, I’m parked firmly near the basement, in large part because I haven’t banked an essay yet, and that’s in large part because I’ve now picked 49ers games twice.
This is one I’m not overthinking. The plucky Cards played an incredible game last week at Dallas, and are very well coached. But it’s time they turn into a pumpkin. 49ers 31 Cards 13