Cheddar Bay Week 2: Bengals -2.5 @ Browns
Congrats to all on a lively and successful opening round of football voting. The NFL season is now finally upon us which means its time to separate the haters from the believers with a Week 2 Bengals/Browns All Play.
Newcomers please note that you are required to pick, as one of your six picks, the All Play (which, again, is Bengals -2.5 @ Browns this week). Other than the All Play, the only limitation is that your slate for each week has to include at least one NFL pick (the All Play counts for that this week), and at least one NCAA pick. Any questions please feel free to fire away in the comments. Here are this week's NFL lines, and here are the NCAA lines. Happy picking and a great weekend to all.
Folks, as a newly minted Browns season ticket holder, I simply must come in hot as the first voter of the week with Browns +2.5
ReplyDeleteWelcome to the s---show! Go Browns!
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteTexas A&M -4.5
DeleteUCF -3.5
Ole Miss -7.5
DeleteColorado -2.5 essay
This might be one of those classic Vegas lines to ensnare the public, but I think a lot of power analysis is based on Colorado's past season results. Deion has performed an unprecedented roster rebuild (I think I saw 80 new players) and obviously, we know about the performance by his son at QB against TCU. Nebraska struggled mightily against an ok Minnesota team. Rhule is a competent coach and I see another essay suggesting that CU is probably due for a college kid letdown. Maybe. Nebraska is reeling and has little confidence right now, while Colorado has all the swagger. This is a home edition of what used to be a heated rivalry, so I don't think either team is going to be lacking for motivation. But of the two teams that need confidence and to learn how to win, it's the visiting Cornhuskers. Nebraska might find some footing when they get into the soft B1G West schedule but I don't think it comes against Coach Prime and a team that has to be feeling great about itself. I'll lay the 2.5 on the funky line.
Finish off this week with Bills -2.5. Not buying the Jets hype just yet.
DeleteIf you haven't paid your entry fee yet ($110) please kindly PayPal it to peterpattakos [at] gmail [dot com] , thank you
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteWow
DeleteWe will start our weekend with Bengals -2.5 and Lions +4.5
ReplyDeleteColorado -2.5
DeleteUtah -7.5
Bucs +5.5
DeleteEagles -4 for the essay.
Week one is generally pretty tough to handicap with so many teams having totally turned over their rosters or starting new QBs. So for this essay we're going with one of the few games where that didn't happen. The Eagles have a significant talent advantage across the board compared to the Pats, who are still trying to recalibrate with a real OC after the Judge/Pat debacle. Hoodie mystique is dead, and the Eagles are on a mission to get back to the Super Bowl. I'm taking the Eagles to win comfortably on the road. If you want my additional picks to take Fanduel's money, bet on a big win for Hurts and a D'Andre Swift anytime TD.
I would first like to state to the Cheddar admin, there has never been a better Opening Week All Play than Browns-Bengals. I know one game won't decide a season, but seriously - if Deshaun Watson isn't a top 5 QB right away, "December in Berea" may come early and only Deshaun and Jimmy Haslam will be left standing. Or....we'll all be filled with enough Andrew Berry laser eye memes to last a decade.
ReplyDeleteBut enough about the Browns...
***I can't find the exact lines for the College Games.***
Tulane (+7)
Troy (+15)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)
Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
AP - Bengals (-2.5)
Essay - Atlanta (-3.5) over Carolina
I have a thing for the Falcons - I rode them pretty hard last year. They're a solid ATS team playing in the league's weakest division. I think Desmond Ridder will surprise and Arthur Smith coaches like a more pissed off, less cutesy version of Kevin Stefanski (he took "run the damn ball" to a wonderful extreme last year during Browns-Falcons). I'm sensing some 2020 Browns' vibes with an Atlanta squad that features a strong offensive line and perhaps a dominant RB1. More importantly, I love that QBs taken first overall have a 0-13-1 record straight up and 1-13 ATS. I'm sure Bryce Young will be fine in time, but look for some serious small ball out of the gate.
Sorry about that, the full sheet of NCAAF lines are now posted. There was a glitch first time around.
DeleteNo worries! I was good either way. Troy +16.5 and Tulane +7.5
DeleteI can't not play the NFL opener, Kelce's injury isn't worth 2, so I'll stick with Chiefs -4.5 as they raise the banner with a W.
ReplyDeleteMas manana.
Oops, almost forgot to get some Saturday biscuits on the table....
DeleteStanford +29.5 @ USC
Auburn-6.5 @ Cal
Rest of the NFL slate
DeleteDolphins +3 @ Chargers
Seahawks -5.5 v. Rams
This week's essay is all-in on the all-play. Football reasons say these 2 teams are pretty even. Browns have a little better roster but the Bengals have more continuity. Browns have the better coach. Bengals have a more proven QB, but he didn't take a single preseason snap for to injury, and that hasn't been a winning formula. This game is in Cleveland, where the Browns have actually been pretty good under Stefanski. But it's week 1 where the Browns have been largely woeful. The Bengals have been slow starters to their seasons in recent years. So in a situation where everything is that even, take the points. Browns +2.5 is the play.
Now that the first week of full time minor league football is behind us, let’s ride with the Lions +4.5 for a point
ReplyDeleteJust a note, there are only a few college games listed. I’ll take NCST +7.5 today
DeleteLions (W)
DeleteNCST (L)
Browns 2.5
Bucs 5.5
Arizona 7
Essay: Seattle -5.5
Hard to believe that the LA Rams won the Super Bowl a mere two years ago. Matthew Stafford is back, and they still have Aaron Donald. Not a whole lot else positive can be said. Seattle’s offense was one of the most efficient in the league last year, and returns almost everyone while adding JSN and Zach Cherbonnet. Meanwhile the Rams defense lost three veterans from last year’s team. Division games and openers are always tough to predict, but this line should’ve been at least a TD. Gimme the ‘Gulls
Chiefs
ReplyDeleteBrowns
DeletePanthers +3.5
U of Minnesota -20.5
WMU 23.5
Saints -3 no essay essay
I'll ride with the Loins +4.5 for a single.
ReplyDeleteSomeone told me there's more money on Colorado this week than any NFL side. I think they're going to want to milk this for at least another week and won't let Coach Prime lose today in the home opener so give me the Buffs -2.5 for a single.
DeleteAlso, Texas +7 over Bama.
Three NFLs including BROWNS ESSAY tomorrow
Canceling Texas, flipping to Bama -7. Thanks.
DeleteHere's my Browns essay: https://www.clevelandfrowns.com/2023/09/its-super-bowl-or-bust-for-deshaun-watson-and-the-cleveland-browns/
DeleteWill go with the Raiders and Cowboys to finish my slate
DeleteThe last minute switch off of the Texas team didn't work so well for me yesterday but I'm going to do it again, cancel Cowboys and please put me on the Giants +3.5. Thanks.
DeleteCripes what a self own. "Messin with Texas." Woof.
DeleteLine is dropping like a barometer thanks to Kelce but I am still going Chiefs -4.5
ReplyDeleteOregon Football Ducks -6.5 over Texas Tech
DeleteAll Play Bengals -2.5 over Browns
DeleteSteelers +2.5 over 49ers
Two more picks later/tomorrow.
Trying to jinx the Raiders with Raiders +3 over Broncos
DeleteLast minute Essay Bills -2.5 over Jets -- It's the obvious bet that, and I guess I more or less believe this, there are more likely to be growing pains with the transplanted Aaron Rodgers offense than with the established in-place Josh Allen early-season wrecking crew. Always tempting to be contrarian and take the points, but I am having no luck at all with that so far and 2.5 is not enough of an inducement. This isn't even saying the wheels are going to come off, Rodgers could play perfectly respectably and they could still fail to cover here.
DeleteBengals -2.5 vs Browns
ReplyDeleteFalcons -3.5 vs Carolina
SMU +16.5 vs Oklahoma
Texas +7 vs Bama
Purdue +3 vs Va Tech
ESSAY : Texas A&M -4.5 vs Miami
The Aggies are a cult. Yes, they have weird traditions, including the one where your date has to kiss you when they score, as well as the bizarre midnight yell practice. They have a prodigious inferiority complex and are the little brother. It matters little however, because sometimes, little brother can actually play. Miami was in the bottom 10 last year in explosive pass plays, and I believe that Connor Weigman and his receivers will punish this defense. The Aggie defense will be led by a stout defensive line a stable of athletic and talented defensive skill players. As much as I hate to conced it, I think they're more than 4.5 points better than Miami.
Typical blah start to the year, luckily week 1 allows for a Mulligan more or less. I haven’t followed the Coach Prime story too closely, although I’m considering applying to CU for grad school since i have 4 years of eligibility left and with those speeches I’d be running through opposing blockers then straight to the emergency room (who am I kidding).
ReplyDeleteAll Play: Browns +2.5
Colorado -2.5
Appalachian St +18.5
Middle Tennessee +20.5 (Essay)
Bucs +5.5
Titans +3
I’m down on Mizzou these days, as they more properly belong in a hypothetical SEC 2 or SEC B Liga. They’re probably looking at Middle Tennessee as an easy W since we’re still in the Cupcake Bowl period of the season. I know last year is last year, but what else do we have to go on? MTSU finished on a winning streak. They can hold their own barring a complete change in coaching staff.. I don’t see this as an easy win for Missouri, so here’s 3 cheddars on a cover.
Buck: Welcome again to the Jacksonville home we call a broadcast booth, sponsored by residual LIV Golf money. I'm Joe Buck, and I'm proud to partner with a better golfer than myself, co-MVP of the 1987 Aloha Bowl, Troy Aikman. Troy, we finally get to watch professional football, and, frankly, it's a tragedy that we only had crappy college football games to bet on last week.
ReplyDeleteTroy: You're absolutely right, Joe. You know, I still don't understand why I had to share an MVP with Emmitt Smith, even though I won and he lost.
ALL PLAY: Bengals -2.5 (over Browns)
Panthers +3.5 (over Falcons)
Broncos -4 (over Raiders)
Giants +3.5 (over Cowboys)
Jets +2.5 (over Bills)
Essay: SMU +16.5 (over Oklahoma)
Buck: Troy, last week, you took the points and Arkansas State on the road, and that didn't work out at all. Now you're betting against Oklahoma again; what is it about the Sooners you don't like?
Troy: Heh, well, that's easy. It's Will Venables. I got to see my niece's softball game recently, but I couldn't enjoy it because Venables was heckling her the entire time. The only reason I didn't knock him out right then and there is because I wanted to keep getting invited to the Barry Switzer Golf Classic. Look, I think he's a terrible head coach, and the only person I hate more is Skip Bayless.
Buck: That speaks enormous volumes.
Troy: As for SMU, let's face it, this is the biggest game on their schedule. It's their Super Bowl, and they have a quarterback that could take them to national prominence if they get a win here. No one has gotten this much Dallas money since the Death Penalty, I can tell you that.
It's Brent Venables. The post stays.
DeletePadres legend Will Venable
DeleteSqueeky had trouble logging in to the site so he emailed his picks:
ReplyDeleteSince I can’t log in and teeing off in club champ in 40 min make Nebraska essay:
This isn’t complicated. Prime set the world on fire last weekend and all week with the upset over tcu. It was an impressive performance but these are college kids and regression is likely. Nebraska is a beat up program but ruhle is very capable and this is a good now super high profile spot to turn things around.
Others
Texas tech
Wazzu
Packers
Colts
Clowns
Ill get this sorted out by next week
Going to join in the game of the week by taking Nebraska plus 2.5. no pontificating on the merits or negatives of Coach prime, just can't overlook a 10-point swing in the line in a let down spot.
ReplyDeleteRutgers - 8.5 essay
DeleteLets drop another essay on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in a battle for New Jersey turnpike supremacy against Temple. Greg schiano now with a few years to get his system in place and recruit his kind of guys. I seem to remember him taking Rutgers to a top 10 ranking and Rutgers first ever bowl win back in the oughts. which was then, and now still unthinkable. He's the kind of jerk who can really lift up impressionable young men, and win against middle of the road programs. Temple, seemed like they had to really battle to win against Akron last week. That was a big win for the owls who went one in seven in conference last year and generally didn't look very good. I think the Rutgers defense gets after the quarterback all day long here.
Browns +2.5
DeleteBucs +5.5
Seahawks -5.5
Giants +3.5
ysu +41.5
ReplyDeletettu +6.5 oregon
Deleteouch ttu.
Delete***bills -2.5 at jets
Have you ever thought about how different Cleveland and all midwest cities are from one another? I used to think about it with respect to how non-homogeneous Ohio is. Toledo is Michigan; Youngstown is Pittsburgh; southeast Ohio is WV; Cincy seems like it's own thing; Columbus has more in common with Indy than other Ohio cities. So they're all partnered up,, who does Cleveland pair with from a 'vibe of the people' perspective? Columbus wouldnt have us, we wouldn't have Detroit, Cincy might be a better match with Louisville than another Ohio, Pittsburgh is the strangest place there is. I spent some time in Jamestown in the 80s and from that experience, I've always thought Buffalo is our natural peer. Like us, they're also not really a fit with the rest of their state. Theyre in no way Pittsburgh influenced. The geography/topology is identical. The land is much prettier but you could swap the people of Chautauqua County with those of Lorain and not notice much difference. I didn't find a difference. Very much home-ish. And their Bills fans' dedication is on par with us and our Browns. Personally, I love rooting for Bills and theyre an easy pick from my second favorite team.
All of which is prelude for: McDermott still is a contender for best current HC, Allen for best QB, Diggs still a first round fantasy pick, Oliver/Milano/Hyde/Poyer/Jones are solid name brands on defense, Rousseau had 8 sacks last year and at 23 seems ready to break out. Last year at this time they were everyone's pick for Super Bowl and shit they only went 13-3. Theyre still the team we've come to respect from the last few years and though I LOVE what the Jets/Saleh are doing, look for the Bills to remind them who is boss.
giants +3.5 vs boys
pats +4 vs eagles
browns +2.5 vs bengals
Good essay,. and Cleveland is a lot like Buffalo (a place I haven't spent enough time), but my take as a Detroiter-turned-Clevelander-turned-rural Ohio guy, Cleveland is a lot more like Detroit than it wants to admit.
DeleteBengals -2.5 (All play)
ReplyDelete9ers -2.5
Giants +3.5
Bears -1
Bama -7
Wisconsin -6.5 (essay)
Wisconsin -6.5 to Wash St: Luke Fickell doesn't need a defense, they use their ground game to eat clock (the new rules make each game about 6 plays shorters) and they end up scoring twice a half, with Washington state only getting the ball 5 total times. I like where this is going. This will be the last week Wisconsin is a sneaky pick before they end up in the top 17ish.
ReplyDeleteBrowns +2.5 vs Bengals***Essay***
ReplyDeleteIt's clear that Mr. Chase is worried about Joey Buckets when it comes to playing the Browns. Chase hinted publicly that Joey should 'take his time getting back' after suffering the ankle injury in training camp. Suggesting they don't really need him for first couple of weeks of the season. Clearly, this is projection and concern over what has largely occurred since Borrow has joined the bengals which is the Browns beat the crap out of them. Worried especially is Chase that this newly improved Browns d-line may do some real damage Sunday. Like damage damage. Now he's spouting some more nonsense this week and so this feels over before it even started.
Washington St. +6.5 vs Wiscy
Alabama -7 vs Texas
Bills -2.5 vs Jets
Bears -1.5 vs Packers
Eagles -4 vs pats
tulane + 7.5
ReplyDeleteapp state +18.5
all play: browns +2.5
steelers +2.5
eagles -4 (essay to follow)
bills -2.5
hometeam
the patriots had a controversial training camp: the head coach hates the q.b., the q.b. has created an alliance w bill o'brien who returns to the fold as offensive coordinator, the o-line is weak to anemic and the entire squad has not yet played together as a unit due to an incomplete pre-season. just add tom brady, b belichick's cryptonite, in a luxury box at gillette stadium. today is a loss.
Deletegive me the eagles -4
hometeam
College pick: Alabama -7 over Texas
ReplyDeleteColts +4.5 over Jags
DeleteGiants +3.5 over Cowboys
Titans +3 over Saints
Bills -2.5 over Jets
Essay: Browns +2.5 over Bengals
Myles owns Joe Burrow, Kevin owns Zac, Browns own the Bengals—what more is there to say? While the expectations are high for both of these teams this season, this game is much more of a must-win for the Browns than for the Bengals. Given their recent success, Cincy has the luxury of easing into its season, but not so for the Browns. A 1-3 (or, God forbid, 0-4) start means Kevin's time in Cleveland will be over, and I don't think that's happening. We've been saying this for four years now, but there's too much talent on this team for it not to reach the 12-5/13-4 range one of these seasons. Super Bowl, Super Browns!