2023-24 Cheddar Bay Reality Football Opening WeekendS Thread
The 2023-24 amateur football season is upon us folks and with that the 14th annual season of the world's realest reality football contest with a weekly writing requirement ...
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To kick things off this season we're calling the first two weekends of the amateur football season the first round of the 23-24 Cheddar season and keep it at a half-points "week" per custom. Which is to say pick SIX games for the two weekends from tomorrow 8/25 through Monday 9/4 for Cheddar Week 1, including ONE essay, and we'll count them as half points for that round, meaning 0.5 points per ordinary pick and 1.5 for the essay. Week 2 and ordinary scoring (1 point per game, 3 points per essay, 6 points for one PLAY OF THE YEAR) picks back up for the week of 9/5 through 9/11.
The point spreads for this opening round are HERE. Also, there is NO ALL PLAY for this round.
Otherwise you know the drill, $110 per entry, details to be sorted as the season goes on, newcomers welcome as always (may the gods help them). Happy football voting season friends, looking forward to another great one here on old Cheddar Bay.
I'll admit - this Cheddar season snuck up on me. I've been in a bit of a football slumber. All I know are a few offseason talking points, such as the Browns are now a dominant passing offense, the defense is better than the 85 Bears and everyone hates the kicker. I'm even more clueless about college - per usual. But nonetheless, I'm excited for a new year of Cheddar! Thanks to all who work hard to continue this wonderful contest.
ReplyDeleteUtah -4.5 over Florida
Hawaii +17.5 over Vandy
Michigan -35.5 over East Carolina
Alabama -39.5 over Mid Tennessee
FSU +2.5 over LSU
Essay - TCU -20.5 over Colorado
Since it's hard to rely on ATS data to start a new season, I'll go with a good narrative. The contempt for Colorado's Deion Sanders among coaches and a lot of old guard media is hilariously off the charts. Because of his larger than life profile, Sanders took an inordinate amount of criticism for shipping off dozens of holdover players and bringing in higher caliber replacements....a tactic that EVERY big-time college coach employs. The hypocrisy of Oklahoma's coach calling out Sanders and virtue signalling some mythical purity could only happen in the festering sore that is major college athletics. Sanders has become a convenient scapegoat for the greed and dysfunction of an NCAA system now reckoning with long overdue player empowerment.
My hope is that Sanders flourishes at Colorado and moves onto an even bigger program in the coming years...continually exposing the dying scam of the NCAA and more importantly, pissing off entitled media members carrying the water of big business university institutions.
But in the meantime, Sanders' team has some beatings coming their way. His Colorado team is rebuilding on the fly, but is carrying a huge target on their backs. Everyone wants to knock down the guy who doesn't exactly fit into the good ole' boy network of big time college coaches. TCU gets the first shot.
Buck: Welcome to the broadcast booth; it's a beautiful day for football sitting in some rando's house in Jacksonville. I'm Joe Buck, and I'm alongside Jay-Z doppelganger Troy Aikman. Troy, while I love a good cheddar bay biscuit, I haven't darkened the doors of a Red Lobster in quite some time, when I can just buy the biscuit mix at the store.
ReplyDeleteTroy: You're absolutely right, Joe.
Arkansas State +34.5 (at Oklahoma)
Kentucky -25.5 (vs Ball State)
Alabama -39.5 (vs Middle Tennessee)
Tulane -7 (vs South Alabama)
BYU -20.5 (vs Sam Houston)
Essay: Ohio State -28.5 (at Indiana)
Buck: Troy, I don't exactly think of Bloomington as a home field advantage, but for some reason it shows up in the point spread. Are you taking the points?
Troy: Well, I don't know, Joe, Ohio State is awfully good. I mean, I wish I was throwing passes to Marvin Harrison Jr., because he makes it look easy. They have the ability to get out to a big lead, and they have a lot of returning starters on a defense that makes it easier to sit on a lead. Even if those backup defenders get in the game, some of those guys are a year better and looking to hurt some folk.
Haha welcome to the contest
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ReplyDeleteNotre Dame Fighting Irish -20.5 (corrected line)
DeleteFlorida Gators +4.5
DeleteUCF Golden Knights -36.5
NC State Wolfpack -14.5
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DeleteSouth Carolina +2.5
DeleteTulane -7 Essay
I like chalk in early weeks. I haven't done the analysis, but I think the public wrongly assumes that some big favorites are not ready to go in Week 1. A good example was MSU last night--a team I assumed would not cover against the nearby Chippewas. MSU cruised to a cover in the second half on depth.
Tulane doesn't fit that mold, per se, but they're top 25 and coming off a 12 win, New Year Six game. South Alabama is a solid team returning a solid QB. But Tulane has a passer on preseason award watch lists. Tulane football hasn't been this relevant since the old, old days of SEC membership. I also think it's fair to consider them in the big favorites category despite a spread of only 7. At the end of the day, this is the best team in the AAC, last year and this year, against a decent Sun Belt team. Further, South Alabama has engaged in some cultural appropriation that has stirred up fans all along the Gulf Coast and will probably have the Green Wave causing marine advisories. https://www.wdsu.com/article/south-alabama-helmet-mardi-gras-debate/44974373
Give me the Wave and dual threat, preseason watch list QB Michael Pratt to win by three scores.
The Residue Dogs are back and we like Navy with the +20.5 in Emerald Isle
ReplyDeleteIn my defense, this spectacularly stupid play was a tip from Jim Rome and James Kelley. That's okay though, week zero picks are the height of degeneracy, and I would still never stake actual money on week one games.
DeleteOn to the next five:
Utah St +25.5 over Iowa
Illinois -9.5 over Toledo
Colorado +20.5 over TCU
Mich St -14.5 over Central Mich
Utah -4.5 over Florida - essay
Very interesting line movement, starting at Utah -9 and being cut in half. I'm not sure what Florida has done to earn that, besides naming Graham Mertz the starter, which I thought would have had the opposite impact. Obviously, it's about Cam Rising's health, but I have a lot more faith in Utah being prepared to go with a backup then I do with Florida breaking in a transfer who has never been good.
With the caveat that none of these are really essay material, this feels like the easiest game on the slate. Last year, Florida needed Anthony Richardson to get 3 rushing TDs to pull out the win, by 3, at home. Florida's travel plans were disrupted by the hurricane, trips out west are always challenging for east coast teams, and again, Graham Mertz. Although I will say that Utah State getting loads of points against Iowa looks pretty attractive too.
Rod Of Disaster is back! Ready to contribute to the Pattakos Childrens' Snack Fund
ReplyDeleteLa Tech +19.5 at SMU
UConn +14.5 vs NC State
Texas -35.5 vs Rice*
UTSA +1.5 at Houston
Middle Tennessee State +39.5 at Alabama
Ohio +3 at San Diego State
The Texas Longhorns enter year three of the Steve Sarkisian Era and it's time. He took out the trash. He's recruited well. He's schemed well. The Longhorns start 16 upperclassmen going into the season, with eight starters or significant contributors returning on defense. The Longhorns will not only win, but cover against Rice as my daughter (a Rice grad) and I (a Texas grad) attend the game. This will happen for three reasons: The QB, The Space Force, and the scheme.
The Horns are led by Texan-turned-Buckeye-for-a-minute-turned-Texan-again Quinn Ewers. Ewers had a mixed season in 2022. He flashed uncommon arm talent, showing why he was a recruit in high regard. His first quarter performance vs Alabama showed remarkable poise and production prior to exiting with a clavicle injury. He returned to hang 49 on Oklahoma, seemingly locked into the Sark offense and steering a juggernaut. But alas, the freshman fell back to earth struggling through losses at Oklahoma State and against TCU. Ewers admitted needed a different approach. He cut the mullet, put on 10 lbs of muscle and rededicated himself to being a leader. By all accounts he's had an exceptional training camp and re-established reliability throwing the deep ball (more later).
The Space Force is my friend,Ian Boyd's theory that elite football requires advantages at certain positions that play in space (LT, edge rusher, WR and CB). Texas has at least three of those in spades. They have a dominant returning LT in Kelvin Banks who was a freshman All-American snub. He faced Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson, Will McDonald IV, and Felix Anudike-Uzomah, all first-round picks in the 2023 NFL draft. He gave up zero sacks. Yes. ZERO. The WR corps will start with Xavier Worthy, Georgia transfer AD Mitchell, and Jordan Whittington, all of whom would be a #1 on another team. They hold their spots over the talk of 2022 camp, Isaiah Neyor (coming off ACL), previous starter Casey Cain, and freshmen phenoms Johntay Cook and DeAndre Moore. If not for the WRs, the DBs might be the strength of the club with the corner positions being physical and sticky with Ryan Watts and Wake Forest transfer Gavin Holmes, who's being pushed for snaps by the ever physical and technical Terrance Brooks. Nickel will be manned by the presumptive defensive MVP, Jahdae Barron, a human joystick with pop. All this will be backed up by safeties Jerrin Thompson and former All-SEC performer Jalen Catalon.
While the talent level in Austin as at its best in over a decade, it should be noted that Steve Sarkisian has always excelled at scheming matchups. Rice will not have answers on defense and Steve will have the backups in early. Rice had one strength: wide receiver; and then they saw one retire from football and another transfer to NC State. It's going to be a long day for Intellectual Brutality (yes, that's what Rice put on their posters my daughter's freshman year). I'll take Texas and lay the points.
I highly recommend Ian Boyd's writing on football. His most recent platform is here: https://americaswargame.substack.com/
DeleteWow what a glorious return welcome back
DeleteAnd enjoy the game!
DeleteNavy +20.5
ReplyDeleteSan Diego St. -2
Vandy -17
After taking a sabbatical last year, I was debating making a return, but Cheddar Bay champion is a title that has eluded me and I am eager to be a Pattakos affiliated degenerate triple crown winner (Cheddar Bay, Banas College Bowl Pool, Lifestyles NCAA). When I saw an opportunity to essay about the 4th ever Confusion Bowl, I was hooked. The Confusion Bowl aka Miami v Miami, where Miami always wins, always has the ball, always defends, and always offends, was first held in 1945 when the title was coined. It was held again in 1946 and 1987. I have spent my whole adult life waiting for a return, so that I can say I am 100% sure Miami will win the game. I am thinking the radio broadcast will be fun. Now, which Miami will cover is a little trickier. Miami F. has won, but not covered, every game. There are more bets on Miami F. but more money on Miami O. I once ran a 100 mile relay race with Miami F. Assistant head coach’s wife and another time got to watch a Akron U game from the coaches wive’s loge so it seems the personal connection is as good as anything else. Go Miami and hurray for the return of football season.
ReplyDeleteSjst
Miami F. essay
Buffalo
Notre Dame
NC state
Stanford
Wow welcome back
DeleteO.U. oh yeah +3 over San Diego State for one point
ReplyDeleteAlright folks so we've got the Kenni Burns Era launching tonight in Orlando with Kent State v. UCF. Golden Flashes vs. Golden Knights. Wow. The conventional wisdom is that Sean Lewis left the Flashes program in tatters with not just the head coach having left but many of the program's best players along with him. There is probably something to that but it's not every day a program gets to replace a head coach with one from the vaunted Pajamas Fleck Coaching Tree. Thankfully for us, the legend Terry Pluto has talked to himself about Burns and why KSU hired him, and has (to no ones surprise) unearthed many golden nuggets of knowledge and hope.
DeleteFor example, did you know that "a Group of 5 athletic director said" that Burns ‘"is a holistic person developer, a purpose-driven recruiter, a faith-based principled leader, an adaptable game planner and pristinely organized"???
Did you also know that Burns "came into the interview [at KSU] with the theme being 'Kent Grit.' A tough, cold-weather Midwestern team. But he also wants to merge it with 'FlashFAST,' the uptempo offense installed by Lewis that led to four consecutive winning seasons in the MAC"???
Did you also know that "At Minnesota, Burns established himself as an elite running backs coach," with his supervision of "Big Ten stars Rodney Smith and Mohamed Ibrahim," where it "was Burns’ leadership ability that impressed Fleck, causing him to promote Burns to assistant head coach," and where he was "one of [Pajamas'] most important assistants, first at Western Michigan and now Minnesota."
All apologies to Pajamas' less important assistants, but in his college football playing days for Indiana, Burns was also "the 2004 Iron Man Award recipient, given to the Hoosier who played the most snaps during the season."
Pretty good for a running back!
This KSU squad has a couple of good running backs too if nothing else so if this opening week essay on Burns goes up in flames so be it, I shall rise or fall with Kent Grit +36.5 over Central Florida.
The Ohio State University and The University of South Carolina
DeleteSqueeky has convinced me to take South Alabama as well
DeleteWow what an opening round it has been. I'll try FSU with my final stab at getting on the board.
DeleteSitting at my mom's farm in southern ohio, about 2 hours from everything. Seems like the right time to rejoin the Cheddar fray before heading back to Oregon in a few days.
ReplyDeleteHoping the steady and reliable MAC shows the world what it's constituents are all about this year, and that is definitely not major college football.
UMass +7
Ohio +3
Rutgers -6.5
DeleteThis is the current line, no line was available when you printed the doc last week
Oregon St -16.5
FSU +2.5
Clemson -12.5
Let's start the year with an essay in favor of Rutgers, my grad school alma mater. Program looks like it might be turning the corner to get back to six win territory on the season. Welcoming a northwestern program that's in disarray. Seems like the right time to lay points with a program that never lays points, ever.
Utah -4.5 to Florida (essay)
ReplyDeletePurdue -.6.5 to Fresno State
Tennessee -26.5 to Virginia
LSU -1.5 to FSU
Clemson -10.5 to Duke
SJSU +16.5 to Oregon State
Essay
DeleteUtah -4.5 to Florida
I liked this at -6.5/-7 that was hitting before the Cam Rising news, but Cam plays, so I think I just got a field goal CLV for this.
Utah was 8-4 last year, which shocked me because everyone around here acted like they won the Chip. They start off redeeming themselves from last years tough start.
howdy! lemme throw one in tonight:
ReplyDelete1. neb +7.5 at minny
2. gt +8.5 vs ul
Delete3. hawaii +7 vs stan
4. uva +28.5 vs tenn
Delete5. iu +28.5 vs osu
6. **scar +2.5 unc
Hi all, we'll take a swing at Cheddar this year.
This got on my radar as gf's daughter left the nest a couple months ago and landed a job (aquatics director at a big Y!) on the SC side of Charlotte. Out on her with no fam for first time, very big deal. She even gave up her Foxboro Taylor Swift tickets. So that's how this game got on my radar and the logic of the pick is simple, especially at this time of the year: if you're a top high school recruit with aspirations of playing pro, would you go SEC or ACC (excluding Clemson)? Is 72 year old Mack Brown a legendary college football presence or a longevity award winner who has developed a significant pro player since Colt McCoy? UNC is where name coaches go to collect checks and golf. Look at where these coaches went after their Chapel Hill buyout:
Larry Fedora --> New Orleans Breakers
Butch Davis --> //7 yr gap// FIU
John Bunting --> _retired at 56_
Carl Torbush --> //15 yr gap// ETSU
Dick Crum --> Kent State
And of course no evaluation of UNC would be complete without a raking their insufferable alumni and done-to-death Carolina Blue. Imagine extolling your 'top-ranked Journalism School.' Google 'Adam Rainer' for the obvious observation.
Meantime Frank Beamer's kid is in his second year at USC. His dad put Blacksburg on the map and made Hokie a national name brand. Tough to do. (Also tough to do is taking Austin in the biggest recruiting state with all the tradition OFF the map.) They're SEC but the #2 team in their state and #2 to Dabo.
I'll acknowledge that USC's 'Cocks' branding has an expired sell-by but I'll still look forward to pulling for them tonight.
Nice glad you are back Chief
DeleteWelcome back my degenerate friends! It's great to be back in the Cheddar mess!
ReplyDeleteFor my first essay of the season, I'm wagering my biscuits against Coach Prime and taking last year's national runners up -20.5. I expect Coach Prime's Colorado to eventually be somewhere between decent and good, but not right away and probably not this year. We've seen the practice videos, that does not look like a D-1 football team. TCU'S built a program that competes at a makes the CFP playoff level. Despite the TCU losses from last year, this is an "irrational exuberance" line in favor of one of the stories of the off-season. I'll happily wager my biscuit and a half in favor of the established program.
Hopefully I'll remember to bounce in here tomorrow to place my half biscuit picks.
And now the rest of the degeneracy...
DeleteUCLA -14.5 v. Coastal Carolina
Houston -1.5 v. UTSA
Clemson -12.5 @ Duke
BYU -20.5 v. Sam Houston
Central Michigan +14.5 @ Michigan St.
Have a good weekend, all!
Holy moly, it’s that time again. I made my every 3 years or so sales pitch to prospective contenders, alas, no takers. As I chill at Lake Placid, one thought comes to mind - how the hell did this tiny town pull off an Olympics only 43 years ago?
ReplyDeleteMiami (OH) + 17.5
Purdue -4.5 (Essay)
Houston -1.5
UNC -2.5
Old Dominion +15.5
UCLA -15.5
I’m never a fan of middle of the pack and lower West Coast teams going east to play in a non-rivalry game against a seemingly random opponen.. I can see getting pumped up to go play at Notre Dame, Penn St, or maybe Georgia or Alabama, but who really wants to get on a plane and get reverse jet lagged to play Purdue? Also there’s the whole Big Ten versus a meh conference angle. Purdue has had to play good teams for years now, so they should be able to handle themselves against an ok team from a lesser conference. So, let’s go for broke on the Boilermakers to kick off the season. Good luck to all.
Hey everybody good to see you all! Getting a jump on the weekend with Louisville -8.5 over Georgia Tech and Hawaii +7 over Stanford in protest over the Tree joining a conference with the word "Atlantic" in the name.
ReplyDeleteThis is already going well. Boise State +15.5 over Washington!
DeleteToledo +9.5 over Illinois while I'm at it
DeleteSan Jose State +16.5 over Oregon State
DeleteEssay Clemson -12.5 over Duke because I am just not having a good time with double digit underdogs right now. Clemson's QB from last year just transferred to Oregon State and blew the doors off San Jose State in the second half so let's hope whoever has displaced him (OK I googled it: "Cade Klubnik") will be suitably equipped to do the same thing to the Blue Devils.
DeleteGreetings!
ReplyDeleteLast year I paid then completely forgot about this, then never entered even one selection. Definitely a sign of senility. Let's see how many weeks I can make it this year.
Fresno +4.5
North Texas +7.5
West Virginia +20.5
Florida St. +2.5
Duke +12.5
Essay South Alabama +7: South Alabama was outstanding last year and a few plays from being undefeated. They bring back 18 starters this year and should be straight loaded. They get suddenly high profile Tulane who is off a magical year (and high profile NYD bowl win vs USC) in game 1 in what should be a guaranteed max effort spot. Tulane returns a decent amount as well but it's not a great matchup at baseline (South Bama quite physical) and Tulane should be headed for a downtick this year.
Haha we missed you last year welcome back
DeleteGreetings everyone! Going a little piecemeal this week, rest of picks and essay tomorrow
ReplyDeleteTemple
North Texas
Texas
Houston
Temple (L)
DeleteNorth Texas (L)
Texas (L)
Houston (W)
SJSU +16.5
Essay: LSU -2.5
Football is back, baby! This should be a good one but I’m siding with the Bayou Bengals on this one, on the strength of their returning stud QB Jayden Daniels, who I think could make a dark horse Heisman run this year. I know almost nothing about CFB so my essays going forward are likely to be NFL, but here goes nothin!
I'll be at the home opener next weekend with some buddies. If any of you cheddarer's are tailgating, holler at me. I got CapGG's tailgate in scope, waiting to hear back from a work contact...
ReplyDeleteOregon St -16.5 vs San Jose St
FSU +2.5 vs LSU
Clemson -12.5 vs Duke***
Two weeks ago at the grocery store, I bought two boxes of cheddar bay biscuits. Knowing nothing about anything, which is a desirable state to be in, I'm left to believe with utmost confidence that Dabo and the Tiger crew will run ramshod over Duke devils of blue. I can't recall seeing a competitive duke devil football team in my lifetime. This might be the most competitive team as being less than 2 TDs dog against a perennial powerhouse would indicate that this 2023 Duke football team is goodish.