Cheddar Bay Super Bowl: Chiefs +1.5 vs Eagles
We've come to the end of another great Cheddar Bay season and given the 25 point Super Bowl there are three of us in the running for the championship, as per the standings here: DK is on 171.5, GSchonberg is on 154.5, and Matt Borcas is on 151. Of course, the rest of us will be on the lookout for exotic 2nd place scenarios.
I will update this post at some point over the weekend once we've figured out what the payouts will look like, but wanted to put something up here to establish the deadline of 5:30 PM Sunday for picks. Congratulations to the contenders, and best of luck!
ReplyDeleteDK
Kansas City +1.5
Thanks to all those who put in the work to make Cheddar such a fun contest. I've greatly enjoyed this NFL season - particularly delighting in all the chaos that has occurred. In most respects, the Super Bowl features the two teams who probably should be there. However, from an ATS perspective, this is a baffling matchup. There aren't many decisive stats to trigger a decision one way or the other. Neither team is much more than average ATS and both have surprising deficiencies. I'm guessing this is partly why the spread has remained so small.
So, I need to trust my gut (which I didn't do two weeks ago). During the championship games, I thought I would pick the AFC winner over the Eagles. Of course, I thought that team would be the Bengals. Anyway, something feels off with the Eagles. I think they should have dominated that game over the 49ers. Instead, their win could have been much different if a few plays unfolded differently. I think the officiating keeps the game close (Goodell's comments are clown level) and in such a game, I'll take Mahomes to make some plays.
Jmac
ReplyDeleteI’m happy to be in contention for something at the end of the Cheddar season, requiring a pick for the Big Game. This year’s pick is the Chiefs. Somehow they find a way to stay in games and are rarely in too big of a hole to dig out from. They have a strong core and a solid go-to receiver with Kelce, provided he stays in the game. Also the Eagles didn’t get too much of a test last week - the Niners had bad luck and just couldn’t recover. Who knows how they’ll react if they fall behind or find they can’t just run down the field and score.
Most importantly, I don’t want to hear it from Eagles fans for the next year. I already had to swallow my pride and get an Eagles cake for tomorrow’s gettogether, since I live on the far outskirts of the Philadelphia media market. Also a Chiefs cake would need a lot of red food coloring.
Good luck everyone!
Gschon
ReplyDeleteEagles -1.5
I wish this game was a pick em game cause I don't like giving the point. But upon review, only 3% of games finish within 1 point difference, so I can't be scared of that. I've made this run from out of the playoffs, to barely sneaking in, to getting to 2nd place by going with my initial gut pick and not over thinking. The last two weeks I've leaned the Eagles, and I'm sticking with it. Does Mahomes taking over scare me? Yes! But, I'm going with the better defense, better O-line, better pash rush. Eagles are #1 in sack rate this year, and I think they pressure Mahomes enough to keep him in check. The Chiefs scored 24 against the Bengals, and the Eagles have a better defense than Cincy. Prediction 26-19.
Borcas
ReplyDeleteChiefs +1.5 over Eagles
My chances of winning the Cheddar crown are obviously small: I need DK and GS to pick the same side, I need to pick the other side, and I need to be right. I *think* DK is going to pick the Eagles based on his picking against the Chiefs in recent weeks, but I have no idea what GS is going to do; in fact, he might reach the same conclusion re: DK's pick and consequently take the Eagles, in which case I'd be SOL (for first place, at least). All of which is to say that making my pick based on what I think DK and GS are going to do is a fool's errand, and my best bet to finish in the money is simply to pick the team I think will cover. And that team is the Chiefs. They have Patrick Mahomes, and the Eagles have gotten fat on a pretty weak schedule (yes, they blew out the 49ers, but SF was playing without a QB capable of passing). I like KC to win in a close one.
Thatsfine
ReplyDeleteI'll take the Chiefs player and coaching experience over the eagles today. Eagles haven't been tested much in the second half of the season, the only high quality coach and quarterback combination they have played was the Packers. Been a lot of lining up against Daniel Jones and Andy daltons. Feel like every time I see a highlight of the eagles it's them playing against the giants. I think this game is going to be all about the Chiefs defensive line getting pressure on Hurts, and Patrick mahomes doing his thing. Chiefs win this one, and see yall next year.
OXR
ReplyDeleteNo pressure on this one, as I removed myself from the leaderboard with my championship round picks. I could theoretically finish in 2nd if all four people ahead of me pick the same way and I go the opposite. This is not a particularly likely thing to happen either way, but I guess I have an easier time imagining everyone picking the Eagles than the Chiefs, partly because I genuinely believe Philly is better and should be favored by more. So for purely game theoretic reasons I will pick KC +1.5. (And if it turns out we are all on the Chiefs I will feel pretty silly.) Thanks to all for another wonderful season, and good luck to the contenders.
Well I figured right... that most were going Chiefs. Had a chance for Eagles to take me to the top. Great season all and congrats to the winners!
ReplyDelete