Cheddar Bay Playoffs Continue: Five NFL Picks + CFP
Hey everyone, I haven't updated the spreadsheet yet out of shame at my appalling picks, but it'll get done over the next few days. Bills/Bengals is obviously a no contest so those who essayed it can essay something this weekend instead. We will move on with five NFL picks and TCU +12.5 vs Georgia:
- Titans +6.5 at Jaguars
- Lions +4.5 at Packers
- Patriots +7 at Bills
- Ravens +9.5 at Bengals
- Browns +2.5 at Steelers
Obviously the Browns are eliminated but they will hopefully be fired up to play spoiler. Note that thanks to the NFL's scheduling the Lions may have been eliminated by the time their game kicks off.
The usual rule for the playoffs is that all picks are due one hour before the kickoff of the first game of the weekend. In this case that is 7:15 PM on Saturday because of the Titans/Jags game.
From this point we will submit picks by email to prevent undue gamesmanship. Residue Dogs has kindly agreed to serve as custodian, so please email your picks by the deadline to oriolebird38 at gmail dot com and he will post them. Good luck to all!
Sorry for the delay on posting.
ReplyDeleteJmac:
Jags -6.5 Essay.
Packers -4.5
Bills -7 no way the Bills lose this one, should be safe for a TD margin
Ravens +9.5 that’s a lot of points
Steelers -2.5 Browns are still the Browns
TCU +12.5 that’s a lot of points
The Jags have made a big jump this season, sitting atop their (terrible) division. They are going to be scary good the next couple of years, so the Bills / Chiefs / Bengals / Chargers (?) should take note. The Titans have lost 6 in a row, yet somehow are still alive for a playoff berth thanks to a good start and having 4 games a year against the Colts and Texans. I don’t see them suddenly turning it around and winning a Saturday night road game. Equally I don’t see the Jags sputtering before the playoffs and deciding to phone this one in. A Jags win by a TD is a believable scenario, and is worth 8 biscuits if my math is right.
DK
ReplyDeleteTitans +6.5
Packers -4.5
Bills -7
Bengals -9.5
Steelers -2.5
Essay - TCU +12.5
I've always prided myself on my loyalty. Perhaps I'm tribal or just stubborn, but I tend to stick to what I feel works. The most damning example of this is my 38-year Browns fandom. I've seen a lot of late season meltdowns during that time and typically, a season finale in Pittsburgh would prove another futile, depressing encounter. However, this Browns team is an enigma - they are just good enough to make me talk myself out of a sure bet.
Instead, I'll remain tethered to one of the teams who helped me reach the Cheddar playoffs: TCU. TCU is outmatched in terms of pure talent vs. Georgia, but they have maintained a remarkable degree of consistency this season - posting a 6-1 record against ranked teams and an impressive 10-3-1 ATS mark. They feature a red hot, playmaking QB and an awareness of their unique situation as underdog.
While Georgia is a powerhouse, it's always worth considering how difficult it is to repeat in any sport. More interesting are Georgia's mediocre ATS records, including marks of 7-5 coming off Equal Rest, 7-7 As Favorite, 2-2 at a Neutral Site and 6-7 After a Win. While I wouldn't be shocked with an overall Georgia win, I truly think TCU keeps this one close.
Borcas
ReplyDeleteTitans +6.5 over Jaguars
Packers -4.5 over Lions
Bills -7 over Patriots
Ravens +9.5 over Bengals
TCU +12.5 over Georgia
Essay: Steelers -2.5 over Browns
Of all the teams involved in this week's Cheddar action, the Browns are the only one that, as of this moment, has nothing to play for. They've been eliminated from playoff contention since Week 16, so their lone motivation this weekend is to spoil the Steelers' playoff hopes (and give Mike Tomlin the first losing season of his career). Despite their strong second half in Washington last week, I don't expect them to do so. Outside of that half, the Browns offense has looked moribund with Desahun Watson, and regardless of whose fault that is, I see no reason why they wouldn't produce more of the same against a Steelers defense that hasn't given up more than 17 points to an opponent since before Thanksgiving. Moreover, when the Browns' season ends in Pittsburgh, it never ends well. Watson may be able to change that, but whatever revolutionary effects he has on the franchise won't come to pass until next year at the earliest. And the Clowney drama shows that this team is just ready for the season to end.
Schonberg
ReplyDeleteTCU +12.5
Jags -6.5
Packers -4.5
Bills -7
Bengals -9.5
Steelers -2.5
Essay: TCU
TCU is 10-3-1 ATS this year (also TCU is 3-0 ATS as the underdog), and I'm taking them to cover again in the national championship game. I learned my lesson from last week...TCU's offense is going to score points, and I don't see Georgia winning by more than 13 points on Monday. On the flip side, Georgia is 7-7 ATS this year, and I think Kirby will squeak out a win by a TD in this game.
Thatsfine
ReplyDeleteJags -6.5
Packers -4.5
Pats +7
Ravens +9.5 - essay
Browns +2.5
9.5 is a lot of points to give the Ravens, regardless of who is at QB. Looks like it will be Huntley, who may be a terrible QB. He has passed for less than 500 yards over the past 4 games. But, if the Ravens win this game a coin flip determines HFA. There is something to play for, and I think Harbaugh cooks something up to stay in this game. Plus, despite how good the Bengals have looked and how dominant they have been they still do things like dominate the Pats, go up by 22 and then still let them back in the game. The Ravens keep this one close.
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ReplyDeleteFrowns
ReplyDeleteTitans, Lions, Bills, Bengals, Browns, TCU. I'll convert my Bills essay from Monday night to the Browns as I agree they will be fired up to play spoiler. Thanks and good luck to all.
OXR
ReplyDeleteBills -7 over Patriots
Lions +4.5 over Packers
Ravens +9.5 over Bengals
Browns +2.5 over Steelers
Georgia -12.5 over TCU
Essay Jaguars -6.5 over Titans -- It would be nice to pick at least one game correctly this time around. Riding the hot hand of Trevor Lawrence, not convinced by the Titans in general or Josh Dobbs in particular. The Titans are in desperation mode but they're 23rd in DVOA and there's only so much desperation to go around. Here's hoping to kick the weekend off with a nice anticlimactic beatdown (see also: Georgia).
Nick Harlow
ReplyDeleteTCU +12.5 vs Georgia
Jags -6.5 vs Titans
Lions +4.5 vs Packers
Bills -7 vs Pats
Bengals -9.5 vs Ravens
Browns +2.5 vs Steerers**essay
I've essayed the browns all season so why stop. One more dumb game to sweat through until next year. The fact is the browns now have a major, major quarterback advantage versus the steelers. It's a good test with playoff vibes around which is fun, my Pittsburgh friend thinks his team is going to win. Certainly the news about clowney this week is unfortunate. The fact is this defense lost games in ways never before seen in the NFL so they should be really upset and it's understandable that things are getting weird. Nevertheless, I watched Chubb hurdle Mincah in week 3 and it was one of the most glorious plays I've seen in person. Browns win a fun one to crush steelers hopes on York's leg in final seconds!!