Cheddar Bay Playoff W4
We're down to the last three games. Here are the standings; once again I implore you to check that I have your score correct. Second place is still quite open, but for most of us the only path to victory is to contrive to pick the opposite way to DK and hope he starts missing.
The AFC line has obviously been highly mobile over the course of the week but we have to lock it sometime, and as of this morning we have 49ers +2.5 at Eagles and Bengals +1 at Chiefs. Essay pick is 15 points and the other one is 10, both due via email by 2 PM on Sunday. Best of luck to all.
DK
ReplyDeleteCincy +1
Essay - Philadelphia -2.5 over San Francisco
I would like to go on the record and file a complaint against the Cheddar executive committee for placing a horrendous jinx on me with those recent comments. Trust me, this competition is far from over, as I've endlessly debated these conference championship picks. I can envision every possible Super Bowl matchup happening and of course, the thin spreads have created a huge challenge.
I've believed in Cincinnati but have rode San Francisco over the past two weeks. I truly love the 49ers' run-action offense, dominant defense and have enjoyed the Brock Purdy narrative. However, if you take away two Dak Prescott malfunctions last week, the 49ers certainly don't cover and maybe don't win. Dallas' pass rush (comparable to Philly's) got to Purdy early and much like a Kevin Stefanski offense, the 49ers' rhythmic attack can get off track in the face of pressure.
I've virtually ignored the Eagles all season as I underestimated them early, then got spooked once they hit their inevitable slump. And while the Giants simply don't match up well against them, the Eagles still looked healthy, motivated and deep. If the Eagles can build an early lead, it will be difficult for the 49ers to try to match points.
There's nothing especially noteworthy regarding either team's ATS records. San Francisco is a modest 6-6 vs. non-division opponents and 6-5 when playing teams at equal rest. Similarly, Philadelphia is 7-3 as a home favorite. However, a more interesting stat is Philadelphia has allowed the league's lowest QBR (33.2) and third-lowest YPA (6.3) to opposing QB's who are running pre-snap motion - something the 49ers love to do.
Frowns
ReplyDeleteBeen a rough playoff run for Old Frowner, especially that Giants essay last week, woof. Will nevertheless give it another go this week at fading the Eagles with my vote of the week on the Niners who are arguably better on both sides of the ball. Just a completely different world for the Eagles this week against this Niners offense and defense. Also think the front office would not at all mind seeing a John Lynch/Kyle Shanahan Super Bowl winner.
I guess I'll take the Chiefs in the late game. Not wild about it. Good luck all.
GSchonberg
ReplyDeleteChiefs (essay)
Eagles
Burrow is 3-0 vs the Chiefs...Mahomes isn't 100%...I don't care! I'm taking the Chiefs in this AFC championship rematch. Mahomes and the Chiefs have the #1 offense in the NFL and they will put up points in this game. People seem to forget that Cincy was a 99 yd fumble return to almost losing to the Ravens. The Chiefs have a much better pass rush (55 sacks this season) than the Bills and will pressure Burrow more than the Bills did. I have 24-20 Chiefs win.
Jmac
ReplyDeleteIt’s getting tight out here. No margin of error. I might need the “hope everyone else forgets to send in their picks” strategy to work this time.
In the AFC I’m jumping on the Bengals Bandwagon. The league wants the Chiefs to make it so they can market Patrick Mahomes even more, which I guess is good if you sell NFL merch. For the sake of my season, I hope a few less Chiefs lunchboxes move off the shelf this year.
In the NFC, I regrettably must pick the Eagles to win, and even sadder, will use it as the essay, both very hard phrases to type out as a Giants fan. The Eagles showed no rust from the extra week off. Jalen Hurts brings mobility to the table, and if memory serves the Niners gave up a few large gains to Dak Prescott last week. The Niners this year haven’t dealt with mobile QBs this year too much, and their defense will have their work cut out for them. Philadelphia is a tough place to play too, even if you’re in the same time zone. And it’s cold. All of these factors should lead to an Eagles cover. The Brock Purdy story is a good one, although I’m afraid he’s about to hit a freight train.
thatsfine
ReplyDeleteBengals +1
Eagles -2.5 - essay
Pretty sure I don't have a path here. I like the Eagles at home. And, I guess I can just copy and paste the essay that keeps failing where I anticipate Purdy having a falling back to Earth game, because that's what it is once again this week. He looked pretty human last week but the Cowboys couldn't take advantage on the road. I don't think that will be a problem for the Eagles at home. I think the Eagles are going to smash the 49ers here and leave no doubt they're the team to beat.
Borcas
ReplyDeleteEagles -2.5 over 49ers
Essay: Chiefs -1 over Bengals
Any time I can get Patrick Mahomes at home, in the playoffs, in what essentially amounts to a pick 'em, I will take that opportunity. Yes, even against KC's perennial nemesis, the Bengals. Cincy appears to be entering this game a bit overconfident—see Eli Apple's Twitter spree and several players' referring to KC's stadium as "Burrowhead"—and I expect the Bengals to get their comeuppance. The Bills wilted against Cincy because of poor playcalling and their inability to run the ball; neither of those things will be a concern with Reid/Bieniemy and my favorite fantasy sleeper from August, Isiah Pacheco. The Chiefs will win this comfortably.
OXR
ReplyDeleteSomehow I feel way worse about these games than I did about last week, probably because I need to nail at least one of them to stay in the mix for 2nd, and these lines are not exactly jumping off the page. After much agonizing I am going with 49ers +2.5 over Eagles and essaying Bengals +1 over Chiefs, for a few (I think) defensible reasons. Firstly, the Mahomes injury obviously wasn't as bad as it first appeared, but the Chiefs need him to be on form and who knows if there's a chance he could re-aggravate it. Secondly, I am hoping there's going to be a lot of popular Cheddar support on the Bengals and -- unlike last week with the Eagles -- it is now in my interest to pick the same way as as many other people as possible. Weighted DVOA has this game as literally a toss up. Burrow2Chase. What the hell.
Nick Harlow - no entry
ReplyDelete