Cheddar Bay Playoff W3
Seven games left! This week's lines are: Jaguars +8.5 at Chiefs, Giants +7.5 at Eagles, Bengals +5.5 at Bills, Cowboys +3.5 at 49ers. Like last week it's 5 points a game with the essay pick worth 10. All picks due by email 3:30 PM Saturday as per usual. Good luck!
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ReplyDeleteDK
ReplyDeleteJacksonville +8.5
NY Giants +7.5
Cincy +5.5
Essay - San Francisco -3.5
I had to talk myself out of going with the Bengals, who are determined to wreck the league's Damar Hamlin and neutral site championship game narratives. I love the Bengals in spirit (and I generally love NFL chaos), but their O-Line injuries have me a bit concerned. Plus, the Bills have proven to be the league's weirdest and most unpredictable Super Bowl contender of the past 20 years.
So, I'm riding with the league's hottest team, the Brock Purdy-led 49ers, who boast the league's most dominant (relatively speaking) defense and strong running game. I like Dallas, but I can't worry too much when they beat a broken down Bucs outfit that the Browns also defeated.
The ATS numbers are strong - the 49ers are 8-1 as a home favorite and 11-2 overall versus the NFC. Meanwhile, Dallas has run hot and cold this year, sporting a 6-6 ATS mark after a win. I'm also a big fan of the 3.5 point spread. Had this number gone any higher, I would have to rethink my plans.
Jmac
ReplyDeleteJags +8.5
Giants +7.5
Bengals +5.5 (Essay)
Cowboys +3.5
It’s Underdog Week for the Fightin’ Jmacs. Playoff games tend to be close and these spreads are just too big to pass up. There’s no lopsided mismatch this week and any of the underdogs can plausibly win. Any of the favorites can fail to show up, and have done so this season.
The Bills haven’t been covering well lately. The Bengals have been getting better and more poised, reminding sportsball fans of why they played in the Big Game last year. They’re also 7-2 against the spread this year on the road. I always knew I’d turn into a degenerate looking at these types of statistics - perhaps I should pick out the bridge I’ll end up under now while real estate is cheap.
While tempting to go with the G-men, this weeks’ double cheddar is on the Bengals.
Nick Harlow
ReplyDeleteJaguars +8.5 at Chiefs
Giants +7.5 at Eagles
Bengals +5.5 at Bills
Cowboys +3.5 at 49ers……all dogs this week, these are all v.good teams, except maybe for the Giants, but gonna roll on anyway here, so Dak Prescott had total command of that offense after the first couple of possessions last week. I think he will do enough to carve up the 49ers overrated defense to win this game. I think Purdy has nowhere to go but down from here. Kyle Shannon is a great coach and indeed the 49ers are indeed an offensive skill juggernaut but let's see this excellently coached Dallas defense slow them down. I think it's Dallas's time now to win a good one in this rivalry.
Schonberg
ReplyDeleteChiefs -8.5
Giants +7.5
Bengals +5.5
49ers -3.5 (essay)
I've been on the 49ers the second half of the season and they haven't let me down yet. During this 11-0 streak, the 49ers points differential is 16.9 per game. They aren't just winning, they are blowing teams out in the 2nd half of games. The only chance the Cowboys have of keeping it close is by hitting Purdy and forcing mistakes. Could happen, but I don't see it. The 3.5 points is baffling to me, as the home team usually gets 3 points for being at home, and I think the 49ers are a much better team than the Cowboys. 49ers are 8-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.
Borcas
ReplyDeleteJags +8.5 over Chiefs
Giants +7.5 over Eagles
Bills -5.5 over Bengals
Essay: 49ers -3.5 over Cowboys
The Bucs were one of the worst playoff teams of all time, so I'm not going to give the Cowboys much credit for beating them. And while anyone betting the 49ers would obviously much prefer a 2.5 point line, Brett Maher's case of the yips should assuage any concerns that 3.5 is one point too many. At any rate, I think San Fran has been the class of the NFC for at least a month now, and the legend of Brock Purdy will continue to grow in this classic NFC matchup. The Cowboys' D won't be able to contain both CMC and Deebo, and the 49ers will cruise to a fairly comfortable victory.
OXR
ReplyDeleteChiefs -8.5 over Jaguars
49ers -3.5 over Cowboys
Bengals +5.5 over Bills
Essay Eagles -7.5 over Giants - even after last week this is still #5 vs #17 in weighted DVOA; the Giants look to be the weakest team left standing. It’s one thing to overachieve against the Vikings and another thing to do it against Philadelphia’s pass rush. Jalen Hurts is off the injury report and the Eagles are going to try to run like crazy, so even though the hook is giving me pause I still reckon they can put up enough points here.
thatsfine
ReplyDeleteChiefs -8.5
Giants +7.5
Bengals +5.5
Cowboys +3.5
Essay is the Cowboys. I keep betting against the 49ers and Brock Purdy to have a down to Earth game, guess I shouldn't stop now. Maybe this is the week. Purdy looked very human until the 49ers pulled away in the second half. But I think when the Cowboys are on their game both defense and offense are as good as anyone. I'm also not one to shit on a 11-game win streak but the best team they beat in that stretch is Seattle (twice) and the Dolphins. Neither team presents the challenges Dallas does.
Frowns
ReplyDeleteJags +8.5, Bills -5.5, Niners -3.5,
Vote of the week: Giants +7.5. A couple of principles at play here, first being that the NFL wants a winner in New York after a long time without having one. The Eagles had their run a few years ago and yes this team is great but those fans are good and pacified for awhile now. Also, this league has basically redesigned the sport as a showcase for the myth that a guy like Tom Brady is the greatest athlete on earth. Enter Daniel Jones out of Duke University. I expect the whistles to more or less go the Giants way today and that they keep this at least within a touchdown.