Cheddar Bay Playoff W2
Undaunted, we continue with the wild card games, and congratulate Matt Borcas for being the only one of the eight of us to get his essay pick correct last week. The lines are: Seahawks +9.5 at 49ers, Chargers -2.5 at Jaguars, Dolphins +13.5 at Bills, Giants +3 at Vikings, Ravens +9.5 at Bengals, Cowboys -2.5 at Bucs. Regular picks score 5, essay scores 10. Here are the standings.
As usual, picks are due by email one hour before kickoff of the first game, so 3:30 PM on Saturday. Good luck everyone!
OXR
ReplyDeleteBills -a bunch over Dolphins
Bengals -9.5 over Ravens
Jaguars +2.5 over Chargers
Giants +3 over Vikings
Cowboys -2.5 over Bucs
Essay 49ers -9.5 over Seahawks - Weighted DVOA says this is #1 vs #15. Even with Brock Purdy the Niners have been running up the score on people, and the Seahawks arguably shouldn’t even be here. I hate laying all these points in the playoffs but sometimes lopsided-on-paper matchups really do turn out to be lopsided, and this one could realistically have been a double digit line.
Frowns
ReplyDeleteOld Frowner's Cheddar Wild Card Votes: Chargers -2.5 over Jags, Dolphins +13.5 over Bills, Giants +3 over Vikes, Raisins +9.5 over Bungles, Bucs +2.5 over Boys.
Vote of the week -- Seahawks +9.5 over Niners:
It's time for a Pete Carroll appreciation post. You know what, folks? Jet fuel really doesn't melt steel beams! Not even close, actually. What a world we live in when being called a "truther" is an insult. If you have never considered that the highly concentrated and extremely powerful business interests who benefited the most from the assassination of JFK, also happened to be the ones to benefit the most from US colonization of South America (serial toppling of democratically elected leaders, Iran Contra, etc.), and then from the first war in Iraq, 9/11, the subsequent wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, oh and look now we are funneling endless billions to these same people to fight a war on behalf of "Ukraine" to colonize Russia's great national resources as well? Well I would suggest that you are overdue to consider those things.
Also, if even one part of your brain recoils at the fact that Pete Carroll ever publicly called the US government's official story of 9/11 into question, or that anyone would, I strongly suggest, would actually indeed beg of you, to watch or at least listen to this excellent documentary made by an Italian filmmaker that unpacks the official narrative in great and compelling detail: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rq9nUPs2RAk
It's good listening as well as watching, so you can listen while you do chores around the house, get a workout in, drive, or whatever, but please go through it at least once, digest it, and start asking some more questions from there (I personally would be glad to discuss with anyone interested including to suggest further media for consumption). I would even suggest starting at the 3 hour mark which, to me, gets into some especially compelling aspects of the case against the official story that even the most "counternarrative"-skeptical should find moving.
Anyway, as I always say, a better world is possible if we insist on it. You ever notice how players just seem to want to play more for certain coaches or organizations? How certain organizations have a much easier time replacing talented players than others? That describes Pete Carroll's Seahawks for sure and I appreciate them, as well as the 9.5 points today in San Fran.
Wishing a most blessed Wild Card weekend to all!
Nick Harlow
ReplyDeleteSeahawks +9.5 at 49ers
Chargers -2.5 at Jaguars
Bills -13.5 vs Dolphins
Vikings -3 vs Giants***Essay
This is what my 5 year old thinks is the easiest pick of the weekend. Having missed badly on the browns last week and many times this year I don't know what to believe for these playoffs. Listening to a little kid who has rapidly turned into a football fan over the last two months seems like the right play. Vikings at a different level than the Giants who are happy to be here having overachieved in a week division. Vikings receivers are so good that Cousins has a chance to change the narrative on his career and I'm excited to watch.
Bengals -9.5 vs Ravens
Bucs +2.5 vs Cowboys
G Schonberg
ReplyDeletePicks Playoffs W2
49ers -9.5 (essay)
Jags +2.5
Bills -13.5
Giants +3
Ravens +9.5
Cowboys -2.5
Last time the 49ers played the Seahawks at home the score was 27-7. There is some risk with rain in the forecast that the margin might be slimmer, but 49ers have been scoring 30 points per game in their sleep lately (49ers have scored 33+ in 5 of the last 6 games), and I see the 49ers pulling away in the 2nd half easily. They say it's hard to beat a team 3 times in one season, but the 49ers are the far superior team and I think they have Seattle figured out.
Borcas
ReplyDeleteSeahawks +9.5 over 49ers
Jaguars +2.5 over Chargers
Bills -13.5 over Dolphins
Ravens +9.5 over Bengals
Cowboys -2.5 over Bucs
Essay: Vikings -3 over Giants
Put some respect on Brian Daboll's name for reaching the playoffs with this Giants team, because that roster is grisly. But he won't be able to overcome the NYG's talent deficit in the playoffs. When the Giants played in Minnesota on Christmas Eve, Daniel Jones had one of his most prolific games of the season (30 of 42 for 334 yards and a touchdown), Saquon Barkley averaged six yards per carry (his best since Week 1), and the Vikings still won by three. I don't expect Jones or Barkley to replicate either of those performances this time around, so according to a little thing called mathematics, that means the Vikings should win by more than three tomorrow.
jmac
ReplyDeleteSeahawks +9.5
Jags +2.5
Bills -13.5
Giants +3
Bengals -9.5
Cowboys -2.5 (Essay)
Last week was a classic case of reverting to the mean, so here’s hoping for a better result. While thrilled the Giants are making a playoff push, and despite the buzz about them being a playoff sleeper, I’m not quite ready to take it to the bank. As much as I hate to say it, this year’s version of America’s Team winning over the Bucs by a FG or more seems the most plausible for the additional cheddars. The Cowboys assembled a good record in football’s toughest division, where the last place team could have won half of the other divisions in the league, while the NFC South is terrible across the board (I hope the NFL gets rid of divisions altogether, another story for another day). I don’t buy into the long term stats (Cowboys haven’t won a road playoff game since the Clinton administration, etc), what matters most is that this year’s 12-5 Cowboys should not have a problem winning against this year’s 8-9 Bucs in Tampa.
thatsfine
ReplyDeleteSeahawks +9.5 - essay
Chargers -2.5
Bills -13.5
Giants +3
Ravens +9.5
Cowboys -2.5
I guess it's reassuring to know last week stumped 7/8 of us. For my essay let's throw down with Seattle and Geno Smith's career year. He hasn't ever played in a playoff game, but neither has Brock Purdy and at least Geno has been in the league long enough to not be overwhelmed in the moment. The 49ers defense, now that may be overwhelming. But I like the Seahawks defense to respond in kind and make life difficult for a rookie QB who is long overdue for a bad game that will happen to be in a big spot. I think SF pulls this out but not without a struggle.
DK
ReplyDeleteJaguars +2.5
Bills -13.5
Giants +3
Baltimore +9.5
Cowboys -2.5
49ers -9.5
I’ll go with the league’s hottest team and the best statistical defense over what appears to be a regressing Seattle outfit. San Francisco seems built to win in the playoffs - sporting a strong rushing offense, efficient QB play and what can be a dominating defense.
Further, they’ve been overshadowed by the Eagles in the NFC and the Bills, Bengals, Chiefs AFC triumvirate. Beyond simply winning, the 49ers possess that edge to show they can be the league’s most dominant team.
The 49ers boast strong ATS marks - they are 7-1 as a Home Favorite and 6-0 in their Division. Seattle is trending in the other direction, slipping to a 1-7 ATS over the past 8 games.