Cheddar Bay Week Sixteen: Eagles +5.5 at Cowboys
Even without Jalen Hurts it has been felt that Eagles-Cowboys is still the most compelling All Play for the week. The 5.5 number does reflect initial reaction to Gardner Minshew. Christmas Eve, 4:25 PM.
Some end of season updates:
- This week (now until December 26) is a normal week. The last week of the regular season will start on Tuesday December 27 and run through the January 1st NFL games. To celebrate bowl season and help the playoff push there will be another double All Play of both CFP semis on New Year's Eve, and a total of EIGHT other picks, a minimum of THREE of which must be college. So: ten picks total, minimum five college.
- As already announced, the top 8 players will go into the playoffs, with ties handled by next-round sudden death.
- The playoffs will begin promptly on January 2nd, so participants will need to be ready to pick the January 2nd bowl games (and the Bills/Bengals game).
- Playoff scoring and exactly what we're going to do to pass the time during NFL Week 18 will be definitively announced next week.
- Playoff picks may be submitted to the Executive Committee via email as usual.
Here are the college lines, here are the pro lines, here are the standings. Merry Christmas everyone!
Browns -2.5 vs Saints: POTY
ReplyDeleteThe Browns only loss in the Deshaun Watson era has occurred via the dreaded Jerome Boger referee group and they will always lose those games in which Jerome has oversight. A tale as old as time. The Browns beating the Saints in brutal weather conditions 'just makes sense'. A warm weather team is not supposed to come up in December and win these types of football games. Chubb was held back in the last couple of games and I expect him to dominate in this one. Watson continues to look more and more comfortable. All I needed to see was that pass with a guy on one of his legs as he lasered the ball 20 yards down field to know he's going to be A-OK. The o-line will need a little time to figure out how he likes to scramble, but it's fun leaning into NFL life now with a good QB. Still though, Nick Chubb is the best player on offense and he should get more dangerous as Watson learns to run and airs it out a bit more. Watching Chubb run is a special experience. Speaking of speed, we need more at wide receiver. Where's Will Fuller V? He's got the connection with Watson, he should be on this roster right now. That Jets loss forever changed me as a fan, how did they lose that game? Had they not done that we'd be right where we were supposed to be, even though we really are right where we are supposed to be! Life can be so confounding!
Cowboys -5.5 vs Eagles:AP
Houston -6.5 vs Louisiana
Jags +1.5 vs Jets
Bengals -3.5 vs Pats
Chargers -4.5 vs Colts
Middle Tennessee +6.5
ReplyDeleteTennessee NFL -3.5
Washington +7
Miami -3.5
AP - Dallas -5.5
Essay - Cincinnati -3.5 over New England
There are too many positive trends going on to ignore the Bengals. Once again, they feel like a Super Bowl contender led by the Joe Burrow-Jamarr Chase combo, along with the league's smartest, simplest defense. ATS-wise, the Bengals are 8-1 after a win and 8-3 as a favorite. While the Patriots should be fired up after last week's last second debacle, both the numbers and the feel are too strong to ignore.
Louisiana +7.5 vs. Louisiana
ReplyDeleteMTSU +6.5 vs. San Diego State
---Week 16---
ReplyDeleteAP Eagles +5.5 @ Cowboys
1. Texans +3.5 @ Titans
2. Steelers -2.5 v. Raiders
3. Bowling Green -3.5 v. New Mexico St.
4. Wake Forest -1.5 v. Missouri
E. Browns -2.5 v. Saints
Playing out the string when I could just quit. There's practically not chance to keep playing in the postseason. So I'm identifying with the Browns right now. The game will be played in less than ideal conditions. Pocic is back so Froholdt can play TE and FB where he's better. Browns D is doing the late season competent thing that may or may not save the DC's job again. Anyway, it's going to be a weird day and the Browns winning is the weirdest outcome I can come up with.
AP Eagles +5.5 to Cowboys
ReplyDeleteLions -2.5 to Panthers
9ers -7 to Commanders
Dolphins -3.5 to Packers
Titans -3.5 to Texans
San Diego State -6.5 to Middle Tennessee
BGSU -3.5
ReplyDeleteCowboys -5.5 over Eagles
Raiders 2.5 over Steelers
Bears 8.5 over Bills
Browns -2.5 over Saints
Essay: Broncos -2.5 over Rams
This is a very simple play against Baker Mayfield. The Broncos are a landfill on offense, still, but their D has been playing at a high level all season and just got Randy Gregory back. Baker, aside from two TDs against the Raiders, has been awful. If the Broncos can just take care of the football, this should be a comfortable (albeit ugly) win.
Merry Christmas all!
SDSU -6.5
ReplyDeleteBrowns -2.5
Giants +3.5
Eagles +5.5
Raiders +2.5 essay
Kenny Pickett is back. If that's not reason enough to go against the Steelers, it's going to be in single digits, his first super cold nfl game. Also meaning Josh Jacobs will be the man of the hour. Feels like half the league is 6-8, including these two. Raiders by a TD.
Let's try to finish with a win here
DeleteCards plus 7.5
BGSU -3.5 over New Mexico State
ReplyDeleteAP Eagles +5.5 over Cowboys
Browns -2.5 over Saints
Broncos -2.5 over Rams
Lions -2.5 over Panthers
Essay Bengals -3.5 over Patriots -- Only just remembered that all these games are happening today, which is a solid start. It is tempting to overreact to the overreaction to last week's Keystone Kops ending but the real underlying problem is that the Patriots were about to go to overtime with the Raiders. Sticking with Burrow2Chase here as the Bengals should hopefully only need one cumulative quarter of effective offense to put up enough points.
Browns -2.5 over Saints
ReplyDeletePanthers +2.5 over Lions
Patriots +3.5 over Bengals
Cowboys -5.5 over Eagles
BGSU -3.5 over NMSU
Essay: Colts +4.5 over Chargers
DeleteComing off their world-historic collapse in Minnesota, I like Jeff Saturday's squad to bounce back and make the AFC wild-card race a bit more interesting. At the very least, this should be a close one—the Chargers have just one two-score victory this season (over the hapless Texans), and their last seven games have been decided by one score. Moreover, Staley's boys fell apart at the end of last season, and based on the inconsistency they've shown this year, I'm not sure that they won't succumb to the same downward trend this year. Colts for the surprise win tonight.
AP: Cowboys -5.5
ReplyDeletePick of the Year: Lions -2.5
Seahawks +10
49ers -7
Packers +3.5
Middle Tennessee +6.5
AP: Eagles +5.5
ReplyDeleteLions -2.5
Steelers -2.5
San Diego St -6.5
New Mexico St +3.5 (Essay)
Buffalo +3.5
Seasons greetings everyone, and best of luck navigating last minute shopping. Shopping on Festivus yesterday wasn’t too bad until the storm came through and temps plummeted.
New Mexico St goes up against Bowling Green in the prestigious Quick Lane Bowl. Both teams are more or less even on offense, while NMSU has the more Scrooge-like defense, giving up roughly a TD less than BG. Plus New Mexico St’s recent run has been good in terms of point production except for their one loss over the last 5 games. Since they’re getting points, I’ll risk triple cheddars on them.
Uh oh.... need to make an edit to the last pick. The time honored Crampton Bowl is not until Tuesday and would therefore be out of the range for this week. I'll take the Dolphins -3.5 instead.
DeleteGetting the 1 PMs in:
ReplyDeleteVikings
Panthers
Falcons
Bowling Green
ReplyDeleteEagles
Dolphins - essay
Love the Dolphins at home for an Xmas get right game. I picked against the lions cause i had a feeling they wouldn't want to be there, and that's going double for the Pack. Go ask the McAllisters how much fun it is to go to Miami on Christmas. Looking for an easy 7+ point win for Tua and the boys so Rodgers can finally quit on the season and get back to doing peyote with C-list actresses
Delete"Manders (+7 over Niners); Eagles +4.5 over Cowboys; Packers +3.5 over Fish; BGSU -3.5 over NMSt; Broncos -2.5 over Rams; and Raiders +2.5 over Steelers.
ReplyDeleteWill make the Raiders the vote of the week this week, in large part because I'm too late for any of the earlier games. The Steelers qb situation is really bad, the Raiders have had some bad luck this season, and this line of 2.5 looks a bit funny. Most of all though, the scheduling of this game at night on Christmas Eve is just so brutal. Frankly, it should be illegal for Christmas to be on a weekend and especially on a Sunday. Anyway, hope everyone has a great one!
ReplyDeleteI’m on vacation and not sure where to post picks for last week. Hope this will work out
Coastal Carolina over east Carolina
Tcu over Michigan
Ohio St over Georgia
Oregon -13.5 vs unc
Maryland over nc St
Minnesota-10.5 vs Syracuse
Jags-4.5 vs Texans***essay
I’ll put my season on the line with Trevor Lawrence and this magical season with the jags. Trevor is good and has been fun to watch his success this year under competent coaching. Jags have some left in the tank to finish this season strong and maybe make her playoffs. Zay Jones signing was good I think he’s a really good player, not so sure about Kirk.
Browns +2.5 vs commanders
Ravens-3 vs Steelers
Vikings +3.5vs packers
soo- I can't see the pro lines for this Sunday (Jan 1)?
ReplyDeletemy bad, the new thread is up!
Delete