Cheddar Bay Week Seventeen: CFP Semis, Playoffs Start Jan 2
Here's this week's thread -- but if you posted in last week's already I will get your picks from there (I think this only applies to Nick). There will be a playoff thread with definitive rules and whatnot at the weekend. No changes to the plan from last week: eight playoff spots up for grabs, ten picks, at least five college, All Play both Ohio State +6.5 vs Georgia and TCU +7.5 vs Michigan, make sure to cash in your POTY if you haven't already.
Speaking of which, I believe I am correct in saying that since the introduction of the POTY it has been a rule that your POTY cannot be your essay skip. Consequently I have counted Gschonberg's pick of the Lions last week as an essay skip, *not* as a POTY.
Once more with feeling: the college lines, the pro lines, the standings.
Thanks guys for doing a bang up job keeping tabs on the keagueC really appreciate it.
ReplyDeleteThat said, giving GSchonberg another bite at the POTY apple seems wrong. If that was his (or her?) pick for the entire year, and it failed, and they (like most of us) can use every single point to make the playoffs…geez. Given the pivot on other categories (which I appreciate and think have fairly accounted for the dynamics of the league), this seems off. Just my $.02
Yeah, I hear what you're saying. My thinking was that, if the pick had been successful, under that rule (which I don't think I am imagining?) it couldn't have counted for 6 anyway. So tallying it as a failed POTY also didn't seem quite fair. However, I do not want to set myself up as Cheddar arbiter so I will defer to Pete on this one.
DeleteHello! This is a tough one. In the future we will be clearer up front that the POTY cannot be an essay skip. As much as that rule was pretty well established in past years and could also reasonably be inferred, GShonberg is a new player so, while on one hand we don't want to give him a second bite at the POTY apple (which he already fairly missed), it is also true that it isn't quite fair to hold the failed POTY against him since it couldn't have been a POTY in the first place. Thus, having duly conferred on this unique situation, the Exec. Comm. has decided on the Solomonic solution of giving Shonberg another half-bite at the apple, with a shot at a 4.5 point POTY.
DeleteWe hope everyone agrees that this is a fair enough solution.
Last ditch effort to sneak in after last week's incredible faceplant:
ReplyDeleteCFB:
Georgia
Michigan - Essay
Washington
Tennessee
Miss St
NFL:
Panthers
Jets
Browns
Rams
Lions
It is hard not to see TCU as playing the Michigan State, Washington, Notre Dame role of the deserving but overmatched team in the playoff field. And not only do I feel TCU is overmatched on the lines, but this is also a stylistically terrible matchup for them. TCU's offense is way too dependent on scoring TDs through long singular plays. This is going to leave TCU's defense on the field forever, and I think they'll get throttled in the 2nd half. Michigan's defense has also been great at preventing the long TD in the first place. OSU wasn't able to get those with their supreme athletes. Penn State wasn't able to get any. When MSU got one or two chunk plays to Keon Coleman in the first half, Michigan smothered that and still kept Jayden Reed off the stat sheet.
I'm fully expecting to see Georgia/Michigan in an all-time final, but OSU has a much better chance at the upset.
Washington 3.5 over Texas
ReplyDeleteUCLA -5.5 over Pitt
Alabama -6.5 over KSU
Michigan -7.5 over TCU
Ohio State 6.5 over Georgia
Bucs -3 over Carolina
DeleteEagles -6 over Saints
Texans 4.5 over Jags
Colts 5.5 over NYG
Essay: Jets -1.5 over Seahawks
Putting my playoff hopes into the hands of Mike White today. Well actually, the Jets defense, which has been simply tremendous this year and can neutralize DK Metcalf. Geno has been a great story this year, but has (perhaps predictably) regressed. Jets keep their slim playoff hopes alive with a win today, and hopefully take my team with them.
I'll try Huskies over Horns tonight (+3.5).
ReplyDeleteBEAMER BALL +2.5 over the Irish for another singlet.
DeleteI'll put my vote of the week this week on the Tennessee Volunteers to get it done in the orangest of orange bowls against Clemson tonight. Incorporating all of my previous writings about the Haslams and the seeming progress they have made (however small) in their tenure as Browns owners, the way they've handled the smear campaign against Deshaun and etc. and also about how the Vols are due. I thought they might have at least gotten a playoff slot this year but since that didn't pan out a win in this game over Clemson will mean a ton for this program and seemingly a lot more than for the other side. Hope everyone's new year's weekend gets off to a great start!
DeletePhew thank you Vols. So for these playoff games the cynic in me says that the Televised Football Industrial Complex wants to see a Michigan/Georgia title game, for obvious reasons, as much as an OSU/Michigan rematch wouldn't be the worst thing for it either. The Ohioan in me will nevertheless take TCU and OSU today, as much as that inner Ohioan also yearns for the Joe Germaine/Stanley Jackson days when I did not know who Les Wexner or what an “NIL collective” was. Also, Ryan Day, you are a grown ass man stop dying your beard, bro. Alright, happy new year folks! It's been a good year in here and I appreciate you all!
DeleteHappy 2023! CLE +1.5 over N.O., NE -3 over MIA, MIN +3 over GB, SEA +1.5 over NYJ, BAL -2.5 over PIT
DeleteHere are DK's picks, submitted via email (yesterday morning, ie the Florida State pick was in plenty of time):
ReplyDeleteI’m out of the country and internet is shaky. In case I can’t post, here are my picks:
Wyoming +2.5
FSU -9.5
Kansas State +6.5
Houston -4.5
Lions -5.5
Seattle +1.5
Atlanta -3
AP - TCU +7.5
AP - OSU +6.5
Essay and POTY - NY Giants -5.5 over Indy
If you love chaos, 2022 football is for you. Most of the trends I’ve rode this year have fizzled out, so I’m going with basic motivation. The upstart Giants are looking towards a playoff spot while the Colts are a miserable train wreck waiting on their next QB and Head Coach. I’ll take the Giants and their 11-4 ATS record to cover.
AP Ohio St. +6.5 v. Georgia
ReplyDeleteAP Michigan -7.5 v. TCU
1. Clemson -5.5 v. Tennessee
2. Illinois -1.5 v. Mississippi St.
3. Iowa -2.5 v. Kentucky
4. Ohio -2.5 v. Wyoming
5. Lions -5.5 v. Bears
6. Packers -3 v. Vikings
7. TBD
E. Steelers +2.5 @ Ravens
Close division game amongst familiar teams. Backup QB for Ravens (again). Pittsburgh really trying to get Tomlin above .500. And maybe the Stillers have a chance still to sneak into the playoffs. This one might be a boring game but lots of intensity and a somewhat fun watch. So Pittsburgh for my final essay of this lost season.
Hey Gavin, the Illinois/Miss St game is January 2nd and correct me if I'm wrong but I think this was posted after the Ohio-Wyoming kickoff (the comments are all Pacific time). You can still make 5 college picks with the Alabama-KState game.
DeleteYou're correct. My bad. Lost season so those picks don't matter. Thanks anyway
DeleteJust realized I have left it to the last minute to hit five college games. Points!
ReplyDeleteTennessee +5.5 over Clemson
Kentucky +2.5 over Iowa
Kansas State +6.5 over Alabama
TCU +7.5 over Michigan
OSU +6.5 over Georgia
Iowa +2.5
ReplyDeleteTCU +7.5
OSU +6.5
Penn State +2.5
Miss St +1.5
DeleteBroncos +12.5
Packers -3
Rams +6.5
Carolina +3 - Essay
Panthers 5-5 since Steve Wilks took over, including the solid win over the Lions last week. A roster guys are being shipped off for draft picks, or just let go for nothing and still finding ways to win. It's incredible they still have a shot to win the division, that tells you all you need to know about the team on the other side today. Tampa Bay perhaps you heard of their quarterback. Well he's old and his receivers can't stay healthy. If somebody is going to host a wild card game with a losing record, and get a chance to get Mike McCarthy fired it might as well be the panthers.
Kentucky +2.5 over Iowa
ReplyDeleteAlabama -6.5 to K State
AP: TCU +7.5 over Michigan
AP: Georgia -6.5 to Ohio State
Only took me 16 weeks to mess up a rule. I appreciate the chance to still have my POTY (and if I had picked correctly last week then I would gladly take the second chance), but I won't be using my POTY.
ReplyDeleteCollege:
Kentucky +2.5
Bama -6.5
Michigan -7.5
Georgia -6.5
NFL:
DeleteRaiders +10
Seahawks +1.5
Vikings +3
Eagles -6
Jaguars -4.5 (essay)
The Texans are 6-0 vs the Jaguars the last 3 seasons...I don't care, it's time to break the streak. T-Law has 7 TDs to 1 Int in the last 3 games (all Jags victories). I believe that he is starting to put it together consistently week in and week out. Although the Texans are coming off a victory last week against the Titans backup QB, they won't keep it closer than a TD against the Jags. Houston has the worst NFL offense at only 278 yds per game. Lastly the Jags are 4-0-1 in their last 5 games against AFC opponents and will keep it rolling today.
Georgia -6.5 over OSU
ReplyDeleteTCU +7.5 over UM
Alabama -6.5 over KSU
Purdue +14.5 over LSU
Penn State +2.5 over Utah
Bucs -3 over Panthers
DeleteBrowns +1.5 over Washington
Packers -3 over Vikings
Seahawks +1.5 over Jets
Bills -1.5 over Bengals
DeleteThe Bills are in the driver's seat for the one seed, but a loss to Cincy would change that. With AFC supremacy on the line, I think they'll show that they're the best team in the conference. They've won six in a row, their offense is humming, and the weather will be perfect tonight for Josh Allen to air it out. The Bengals are good, but Allen > Burrow and McDermott > Taylor, and those advantages will be decisive tonight.
I thought I posted last night, not sure what happened. Good thing I write it all in Google Docs then can post while waiting at the bagel shop.
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year’s Eve Eve everyone. One more day to enjoy 2022. And one more day to use your POTY. I have not, so the pressure’s on (purely an accident, I was fairly lucky this year and didn’t need to throw a haymaker in week 10 in order to have a shot at Cheddar glory). Looks like I missed the cutoff for some college games (unless the Jan 2 games are this week?)
AP 1: Michigan -7.5
AP 2: Georgia -6.5
Alabama -6.5
Iowa -2.5
Mississippi St +1.5 (if Jan 2 games count for this week)
Browns +1.5
Cardinals +3
Lions -5.5
Packers -3 (POTY)
Rams +6.5
As tempting as the Battle of Los Angeles is, I’m more inclined to believe that the Packers will win against a Vikings team that has locked up the division. I’m guessing the weather will be less nice than an indoor dome would be, which means the Vikings have a higher chance to adopt a “let’s just finish the game and get out of here” mindset should they fall behind. Aaron Rodgers has been “immunized” against cold weather, and can still compete. I don’t see the Vikings making a statement win here, since they don’t need to.
Eagles -6 over Saints
ReplyDeletePackers -3 over Vikings
Panthers +3 over Bucs
49ers -10 over Jarrett Stidham
Essay and POTY Jaguars -4.5 over Texans -- Not meaningful for the Jaguars as far as the division is concerned but they still want to preserve their wildcard options. Meanwhile they have looked deadly on offense the last few weeks and I think this is a relative bargain at under a TD -- I know they covered against the Chiefs and beat the Titans but the Texans have lost to a bunch of not-necessarily-great teams by a bunch of points.Trevor Lawrence has cost me at least one essay picking against him this year so this is an opportunity to get some of that back. Or not!
One more pic for this week
ReplyDeleteBengals + 1.5
Sorry, looks like I didn't read the fine print and Monday night's game is playoffs round. Never mind, if I end up losing the whole thing by one point I'll know why.
Delete