Cheddar Bay Week Fourteen: Double Double
We are doubling up again this week. Not a whole lot of options for a college All Play this week: it is Army +2.5 at Navy at 3 PM on Saturday.
But the true All Play, the people's All-Play, is Browns +6.5 at Bengals, 1 PM on Sunday.
Raiders -6.5 vs Rams****Essay Play
ReplyDeleteAt 3-9, LA Rams are the worst defending super bowl champ in history so far. They signed Baker two days ago and reports indicate he may start tonight. I'm here for that entertainment and I hope he throws a couple of TD passes. I'm reading Oakland is tired and having won 2 overtime games recently, which this game on a short week they are going to be sluggish based on scheduling. I can hear that, but at 5-7, we know they have a lot to play for. At 3-9 with their best players all out, we know the Rams are confused and playing for next year. T raiders fans are really going to show up tonight. Aaron Donald for the Rams is not playing which should allow for Josh Jacobs to go ham tonight.
Browns +6.5 vs Bengals
Navy -2.5 vs Army
Ravens +2.5 vs Steelers
Jags +4.5 vs Titans
Seahawks -3.5 vs Panthers
Pittsburgh -2.5
ReplyDeleteJacksonville +4.5
Denver +9.5
Buffalo -9.5
AP - Army +2.5
AP - Cincinnati -6.5
Essay - LA Chargers +3 over Miami
I'm thankful for the college football break after laying several eggs last week - including my old reliable TCU letting me down for the first time all year. Digging into an interesting NFL slate, I'm tempted to go with Joe Burrow - who is seriously overdue for his first win against the mercurial Browns. However, I'll go with the Chargers (7-5 ATS) getting a badly needed win over a Dolphins team that was exposed last week in San Francisco.
AP Army +2.5 v. Navy
ReplyDeleteAP Browns +6.5 @ Bengals
1. Ravens +2.5 @ Steelers
2. Broncos +9.5 v. Chiefs
3. Dolphins -3 v. Chargers
4. Buccaneers +3.5 @ 49ers
E. Lions -2.5 v. Vikings
Vikings are the worst 10-2 team in NFL history running up 1-score victory after 1-score victory. Luck runs out this week as the Lions keep this close or win outright. Lions offense is top notch. It's a division game, so familiarity breeds close results. Lions, to win out-right.
I'll start off with Navy -2.5
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteBengals -6.5
DeleteJets +9.5
Titans -4.5
Steelers -2.5
Niners -3.5
DeleteChargers +3 (Essay)
Another packed weekend means I’m not doing my essay until Sunday afternoon. Which limits the options to the 4 PM games, tonight’s SNF game, and tomorrow’s MNF. The Dolphins are stumbling a bit after running up Ws against a run of lower tier opponents. Meanwhile the Chargers have kept it close while not playing a lot at home over the last few weeks. I don’t see why this one won’t be a close one, so I’ll take the 3 spot for the Chargers.
Navy -2.5
ReplyDeleteArmy 2.5
ReplyDeleteArmy +2.5
ReplyDeleteArmy +2.5 essay
ReplyDeleteArmy has the better record, Army has the better 3rd down offense and defense, and Army has a top 30 red zone efficiency on defense. In fact Army opened as a 2.5 favorite before the line moved to Navy. At best the game is a picked so I'll take the 2.5 points for Army.
Cards
DeleteChargers
49ers
Eagles
Vikings
Bengals (AP)
Army +2.5 over Navy
ReplyDeleteBrowns +6.5 over Bengals
DeleteVikings +2.5 over Lions
Ravens +2.5 over Steelers
Titans -4.5 over Jags
Patriots -1.5 over Cardinals
Essay: Seahawks -3.5 over Panthers
In a tight divisional race with the 49ers, the Seahawks have everything to play for—especially now that Jimmy G is out and a home playoff game is in sight. Carolina, on the other hand, does not and should be angling for the best possible draft position. I imagine the Panthers will come out a bit deflated after Baker's big win, and I expect Geno to tear up a secondary that's been torched several times this season. If this line is low because of Kenneth Walker's injury, that's a mistake on the oddsmakers' part.
Navy -2.5 over Army
ReplyDeleteGoats/boats -2.5 over Army for a single
ReplyDeleteMy vote of the week will again be the Browns even though I am bracing for some historic garbage from the zebras. After last week's show of support by Brandin Cooks and Laremy Tunsil with the on-field jersey swap, Bengals tackle D.J. Reader yet another former teammate of Watson's to speak out in support of him this week. Expecting the Browns to continue to rally and the QB to continue to shake off the rust.
DeleteFor the rest, I'll go with the Lions -2.5 over Vikes, Steelers -2.5 over Ravens, Bucs +3.5 at SF, Fins -3 at LA, and Cards +1.5 v. NE.
Browns +6.5
ReplyDeleteBills -9.5
Lions -2.5
Ravens +2.5 - essay and POTY
I'll take the Ravens and make it my big one. I like Baltimore and Harbaugh's ability to gameplan for a QB change, and I like Tyler Huntley. It's a dropoff from Lamar to be sure, but if anybody can fill in the blanks it's Harbaugh and the coaches in Baltimore. They just plug and play guys every year. I don't know that they draft well, but they coach well. The Steelers are 2-3 at home, and Kenny Pickett sucks. 4 TDs and 8 INTs on the year. NFL network and the media keep trying to manufacture excitement around this guy because it's Pittsburgh. I'm not hearing it. Huntley has a bigger day and the Ravens win.
Chargers+3
DeleteCards +1.5
DeleteArmy (W)
ReplyDeleteBrowns 6.5
Eagles -6.5
Chefs -9.5
Panthers 3.5
Jags 4.5
Essay: Dolphins -3 over Chargers
Coming off a tough loss to the physical 49ers, coach Mike McDaniel kept his team on the west coast to prep for the struggling Chargers. I see this as a massive coaching advantage for the Fins, who will bounce back in a big way after their worst loss of the season. Justin Herbert is awesome, but his OL has struggled. But where this one really gets off the rails for the LAC is their defense. They can’t rush the passer or cover anyone, and Tua/Hill/Waddle and co will run circles around them.
Lions - essay
ReplyDeleteJets
Browns
Jags
Seahawks
Bucs
(Apparently my CFB pick didn't post but it was Navy anyway)
Lions are favored against a 10 win team which is one of those Vegas trap lines that make you think, oh wow I can take the much better team and get points?? But Vegas and sharp bettors know the truth about the Lions. They have everything working and they're the healthiest they've been as a team all year. In week 3, a much less refined Lions team went into Minneapolis and had the game in the bag, and the Vikings had to steal it late. Vikings have been trending the wrong way lately. There's too much momentum to reverse, and this game might feature the loudest crowd in Ford Field history.
Interestingly, this is a game the Lions have had come up before, and historically they will show up and crap all over the field. It seems like the universe (or at least vegas) is saying, we believe Dan Campbell has exorcized the demons. It'll be a feast of kneecaps.
All-Play Bengals -6.5 over Browns
ReplyDeleteChiefs -9.5 over Broncos
Dolphins -3 over Chargers
Seahawks -3.5 over Panthers
Jaguars +4.5 over Titans
Essay Eagles -6.5 over Giants -- I'm on a really bad streak and there's not a pick here I can't second guess, so I'm going more or less at random and settling for an offense that just seems to be clicking as well as anything in the league over the last couple of weeks, against an overachieving mass of injuries QBed by Daniel Jones.
missed the first all play
ReplyDelete*all play* Bengals -6.5 to the Browns
Chiefs -9.5 to the Broncos
Dolphins -3 to the Chargers
Seahawks -3.5 to the Panthers
Patriots -1.5 to the Cards
essay Eagles - 6.5 to Giants
Eagles -6.5 to the Giants
ReplyDeleteso I think I am taking this pick based on mainly just health. I think the Eagles are healthy.
Giants are thin in the defensive line, and they may not have Saquan.
Also a slight regression to the mean here - so I think the points are limited (on both sides) so a low scoring game that ends with a touchdown by the eagles to make it a 10 point game
AP: Bengals -6.5 vs. Browns
ReplyDeleteCards +1.5 vs. Pats
49ers -3.5 vs. Buccs
Eagles -6.5 vs. Giants
**Essay** Seahawks -3.5 vs. Panthers
Since joining the Panthers, Darnold has scored 10 touchdowns and has 13 interceptions. No picks yet this year, but the Seahawks won’t be letting him leave empty-handed today in that column of his 2022 stats. Lumen Stadium is an honorary twelfth member of the Seahawks and that doesn’t bode well for a fresh QB coming off a scrappy win in his first game. Seriously, that stadium has set world records (plural) for crowd noise. I’m working on a scratch theory that incoming QBs might fare better in the first game or two, but once there’s some game tape of them in action, the opponents can adjust and the newbie is in for a harsh reality. I think Pete Carroll is a pretty bright guy and will have a defense on the field ready to make Darnold weep. I wonder what the vibe is for the Panthers after watching Baker win on Thursday? Is it like breaking up with your toxic ex, the one you knew it would never work with and were just trying on to pass time, then breaking up with them and they immediately start seeing someone else and (at least from the outside) they seem happy, healthy, and that they bring out the best in each other? It’s a funny feeling.